Author Topic: Thoughts on Simon Petrovich being Cowl  (Read 7471 times)

Offline kbrizzle

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Thoughts on Simon Petrovich being Cowl
« on: May 13, 2020, 07:27:03 PM »
Some thoughts on why I think Cowl is Simon & not Kemmler/Justin/ time traveling or alterna-Harry. I’m open to changing my mind about this however.

Simon as Cowl makes sense to me for a few reasons:
  • Simon was the Council’s vampire expert - Cowl has been seen with Ramps (Bianca’s ball/ coordinating attacks on the Council during Ramp sorties etc); he’s working with some Whamps (White Night) & the fact that Mavra is the one who put Dresden into the necromacers’ path in Dead Beat shows that there is likely a Blamp connection as well.
  • Cowl starts operating more openly around the time of Simon’s death, almost like Cowl was a persona created by Simon to step into when he felt the time was right.
  • In Dead Beat Cowl is surmised to be stronger than Ebenezer by Harry (right or wrong, Harry explicitly feels the need to compare Cowl’s hits to McCoy’s) - as a Senior Council member who is likely older, Simon would be stronger than Eb.
  • Something is fishy about the whole Archangel attack by Ortega - a Ramp strike team is able to infiltrate a well guarded garrison of the Council’s combat heavies but a mysterious explosion wipes everything out so there’s little evidence/ no survivors to tell anyone of what actually happened (surmised to be Simon’s death curse).
  • Ebenezer clearly doesn’t agree with a lot of the Council’s actions & policies, it would make sense that one of his close friends on the Council would feel similarly about it - perhaps enough to try & destroy it.
Why I disagree with the Cowl is Kemmler theories (although I believe Kemmler has a role to play in the series yet):
  • Grevane & Corpsetaker knew Cowl & seemed to have known him since their Kemmler disciple days. They would never dream on taking on their master in Dead Beat - if anything, they would help him perform the Darkhallow no matter whose body Kemmler was in.
  • If Cowl is Kemmler/ Kemmler’s spirit inhabiting someone etc, why does he need the book or Bob in Dead Beat to perform the Darkhallow? Indeed why didn’t he perform it any time in the years preceding or after Dead Beat?
  • Cowl specifically does not like being called a Kemmlerite & refers to Kemmler as a ‘bad man’ in Dead Beat.
  • Kemmler was the guy who started 2 world wars & was a huge threat (big enough to get the ENTIRE White Council together to finally strike him down). As Cowl his stature seems to be vastly diminished. I also expect Kemmler would’ve wiped the floor with any single Senior Council member, so Harry & a few werewolves wouldn’t have scared him off in Dead Beat.

Why I disagree that Cowl is Justin (Justin had THE necromancer’s database in Bob for 20 years, I’m sure he knew a way to ‘cheat’ death):
  • It would make his statement about wondering what has the Council riled up about Harry strange at their first encounter in DB - you’d think that after fighting a duel with 16 yr old Harry, Justin would be a lot more cautious now... (whether or not Justin actually won or lost the duel, 16 yr old Harry still defeated an Outsider Walker...)
  • If Cowl were Justin, I’d expect him to be a lot more personally interested in Harry even now - we know Starborn don’t grow on trees. This is a man who spent a decade of his life raising 2 preteens for a purpose, why wouldn’t he want to keep manipulating Harry instead of disengaging like he has since Harry was 16?
  • Justin had Bob for ~20 years before he adopted Harry - why didn’t he perform the Darkhallow any time during this period if he were so inclined?
  • While I’m sure Justin was a formidable warden & all back in the day, he didn’t strike me as someone who was a big enough player to stealthily adopt 2 Starborn (or even know what they are) from the under the noses of people like Eb & Morgan - it would make more sense if he were doing these things under the directions of his old master, Simon.

Why I disagree with Cowl being Harry from another universe/ time travel:
  • As Odin tells Harry in Cold Days, there is a Law of Conservation of History - so a time traveling Harry would have great difficulty in doing things that matter significantly if he were to go into the past as Cowl.
  • If Cowl is any version of Harry, he would have Harry’s number in any fight between the 2, however somehow OG Harry has come out on top in all their actual confrontations (although Cowl managed to walk away each time)
  • Kemmler’s disciples know Cowl & he knows them well - since Kemmler has been dead for more than 5 decades by the time of Dead Beat, what would time traveling or alterna-Harry have been doing for that time in the interim?
« Last Edit: May 13, 2020, 07:30:41 PM by kbrizzle »

Offline Bad Alias

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Re: Thoughts on Simon Petrovich being Cowl
« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2020, 02:05:50 AM »
The Council came down on Simon for getting involved with the Czar, according to the Paranet Papers. He could have a similar motivation to Injun Joe's of not wanting to watch something get destroyed again because of some principal.

Offline g33k

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Re: Thoughts on Simon Petrovich being Cowl
« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2020, 08:18:10 AM »
... In Dead Beat Cowl is surmised to be stronger than Ebenezer by Harry (right or wrong, Harry explicitly feels the need to compare Cowl’s hits to McCoy’s) - as a Senior Council member who is likely older, Simon would be stronger than Eb ...

I'm pretty sure that -- in straight-up combat -- McCoy is generally held to be the WC's heaviest hitter.  That consensus could be wrong, of course!

I'm certain that Eb never hit Harry with anything like his full power... Harry, as narrator, therefore isn't qualified to judge between McCoy & Cowl (not that I think Cowl has ever hit Harry with his full force, either (fwiw)).

Offline Snark Knight

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Re: Thoughts on Simon Petrovich being Cowl
« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2020, 12:12:37 PM »
Why I disagree that Cowl is Justin (Justin had THE necromancer’s database in Bob for 20 years, I’m sure he knew a way to ‘cheat’ death):
  • It would make his statement about wondering what has the Council riled up about Harry strange at their first encounter in DB - you’d think that after fighting a duel with 16 yr old Harry, Justin would be a lot more cautious now... (whether or not Justin actually won or lost the duel, 16 yr old Harry still defeated an Outsider Walker...)


That comment also leans toward Simon. As a SC member, he would have seen the Wardens' files on Harry.

It's not ironclad, since Cowl could have got those reports through Peabody too. But Simon was close to Ebenezar - it would make sense for him to take an interest in the kid Eb stuck his neck out to save and mentor, even if he didn't recognize the familial connection (and I wouldn't bet against him knowing about that).

Offline AClone

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Re: Thoughts on Simon Petrovich being Cowl
« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2020, 03:15:52 AM »
When someone asked Jim he powerful death curses could be, he responded by saying that it was Simon’s death curse that took out all of thode Red Court nobles.

So:
A. The people at Archangel really got caught with their pants down, So much so that they didn’t manage any real resistance, and
B. Simon really is dead. Dead dead.

Offline Yuillegan

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Re: Thoughts on Simon Petrovich being Cowl
« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2020, 09:43:44 AM »
I don't necessarily think that Simon isn't Cowl. But I am not entirely convinced he isn't Justin either.

Jim often says people who are prime candidates are dead. But he also actively lies to us, and he also says death is a spectrum not a line. Dead isn't the same as gone.

So as far as I am concerned, being dead doesn't rule ANYONE out.

I will play devil's advocate though, for the sake of argument.

Simon:
- It is true, we first see Cowl on stage (although unnamed and in the background) just before Simon is first mentioned (and is said to have been assassinated). But Cowl was around LONG before Summer Knight. That is made clear in Dead Beat - at least from how Corpsetaker and Grevane talk about it. Which doesn't disprove that he created a persona potentially but that theory could apply to Justin just as easily.
- Simon was the vamps expert, but both Justin and Margaret worked with Red and White Courts at least (if not the Black as well). The meeting Eb was invited to had Lord Raith, Ariana Ortega, Paolo Ortega (I think), and several others (I'd be willing to bet Mavra) and maybe a Denarian or two. Justin was also present.
- The comparison to Lea and Eb  and Justin is interesting (in terms of Cowl's magical right hook). Because Harry had never dueled them in earnest and seen what they could really do. My thinking is that Dresden had no other frame of reference for a Wizard duel at that point, so used what he had. Still though, I think it is a reasonable assumption that Cowl is almost Senior Council level at least, if as strong as any of them (if not stronger). Both Grevane and Corpsetaker found it unlikely Harry would have survived a duel with him. Interestingly, from what I have seen of Eb and LtW (and other Senior Council magic) I have found Cowl to be quite under-powered and tactically foolish. He got beaten by Harry and a few Wolves, despite also having Kumori (although one could argue that they were merely retreating or choosing to not have a flat-out fight). Rashid can put people to sleep effortlessly (and I suspect kill much the same), and he and the Merlin have both stopped an army of Outsiders with a single ward. LtW fought a Naagloshii and caused it to flee. Eb has caused more destruction via spellwork that just about anyone (afaik). Martha Liberty can do near perfect veils. Merlin (Langtry) controlled a Mistfiend single handed and contained and ordered a room in microseconds. LaFortier was supposedly able to cast mass illusions. Cristos took out a Rakshasa. And Simon himself has diverted the course of rivers and burned armies, not to mention apparently wiping out hundreds of vampires and vampire nobles with his Death Curse. Whilst Cowl is deadly at the time we meet him, and strangley resistant to damage, he isn't on the same scale (from what we have seen).
- I agree something is definitely fishy about Archangel. Definitely an inside job; but that's been clear from the get go. I think the suspect pool is very small. Even Peabody wouldn't have had enough information. Justin was considered a candidate (if he hadn't been dead - they believe he could have told Harry which implies they believe Justin would have had a way in). This of course doesn't address that Elaine also is just as much of a candidate as Harry for the same reasons he is. Of course, the whole thing could be a set-up.
- In the Paranet Papers, it is clear Simon chafes at the restrictions of the White Council and flouts the rules until Eb makes it clear to him that he can no longer. Simon also causes the worst damage to human politics since the original Merlin, apparently (due to his interference in Russia during the revolution). So it tracks that he is a very viable candidate. Cowl even talks about how many chafe at the restrictions of the White Council.

Kemmler:
- Although I think this is the most unlikely candidate, it is possible that Kemmler might be playing an incognito game. But one thinks the other Necromancers would recognise him and he would want to organise them.
- Your second point is basically irrefutable. He wouldn't need Bob were he Kemmler. And why would he wait until that Halloween?
- Kemmler is definitely a bigger threat than Cowl, in terms of destruction in the short-term. Long-term though...


Justin:
- You're assuming that the duel was exactly as Harry remembers (and his mind wasn't altered). We already know that some memories of that night were incomplete. The duel also could have been a farce.
- Even if Justin was defeated, doesn't mean he didn't cheat and come back like Kemmler or Corpsetaker.
- Cowl seems awfully interested in Harry. And who says isn't manipulating Harry?
- I admit, the encounter didn't seem that familiar. But that might have been the point, too.
- My guess is that Cowl never intended to perform the Darkhallow. The pace was set by others, so he had to turn to a last resort. The way he talks about it to Harry suggests that he wouldn't have done it if he didn't have to. He truly believes it is the best & only option (rather than a mad rush for power). Which is why Justin wouldn't have used Bob's knowledge. Time is pressing now, he might have run out of options.
- You wouldn't need to be a big player necessarily to steal the kids - just well connected. He had a Walker as an ally, among others. But he was also a psychomancer (if I recall correctly). So he could have done things they just didn't expect.


Alternate/TT Harry:
- Yeah, this is maybe even less likely that Kemmler.
- The height isn't mentioned. Harry always mentions people's height if it is close or greater than his.
- The Law of Conservation of History
- He should definitely have Harry's number. Current Harry would have mopped the floor with DB Harry.
- Yeah, the time stuff doesn't match up.


Which all gets to a new WAG I have. Cowl isn't just one person. Perhaps Cowl is both Justin and Simon - each wearing the hood and filling in when necessary. But who knows? I can't really pick between Simon and Justin, they are the closest and there are both excellent arguments for and against.

Offline Snark Knight

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Re: Thoughts on Simon Petrovich being Cowl
« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2020, 02:23:23 PM »
- Even if Justin was defeated, doesn't mean he didn't cheat and come back like Kemmler or Corpsetaker.
...
- You wouldn't need to be a big player necessarily to steal the kids - just well connected. He had a Walker as an ally, among others. But he was also a psychomancer (if I recall correctly). So he could have done things they just didn't expect.

From what we learned in Ghost Story, fire is just as deadly to ghosts and naked souls as to humans. Dying in a fire means your spirit is detaching from your body ... into the middle of a fire. I'm pretty sure this is why a flamethrower was included in Jim's description of how the Council finally made Kemmler's death stick when they executed him with mortal weapons.

I'm also not entirely sure after the GS flashback that Harry was correct in assuming the Walker worked for Justin.

Offline kbrizzle

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Re: Thoughts on Simon Petrovich being Cowl
« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2020, 04:20:20 AM »
@Snark Knight
Good catch on the flamethrowers being used in 1961 at Kemmler’s last stand - it does make the Harry’s duel with Justin seem more final.
Also agree that Cowl’s quote about the wardens’ view of Harry in their first meet points more to Simon than Justin.
So do you also think Simon is the most likely candidate for Cowl?

@Yuillegan
Some interesting points for sure & I agree that when talking about powerful wizards, death doesn’t seem to be the end. Achilles absent, is Achilles still I suppose.

  • My point about Simon creating the Cowl identity was that Cowl started operating out in the open after Simon’s death - before that he seemed to be even more shadowy.
  • I don’t know if there is proof that Justin was that the shindig Maggie Sr & Lord Raith threw back in the 1960s, although I suspect he was in attendance as well.
    Separately what connections did Justin have in the vampire courts that we know of? I mean presumably he could’ve met some vampires when he was still Simon’s apprentice, but Simon is known to be the Council’s vampire expert. Cowl had intimate knowledge of White Court politics & high enough connections in the Red Court to be coordinating major attacks with them in their war on the Council (I’ll bet he was the one calling up Outsiders in many of these attacks).
  • So while Harry does say that Eb is the heavyweight champion of the Council, it is pointed out that wizards gain power with age & Eb is likely the least powerful of the SC (I’m sure it’s meant in more ways than just 1:1 combat). Harry also does say on a couple of occasions that Langtry is the most powerful wizard alive.
  • I definitely think Archangel was an inside job. It’s possible that as Simon’s apprentice, Justin would’ve known how he set up his wards & would’ve been able to get through (like Elaine does to Harry in SK), although Simon setting this up is equally likely
  • I don’t know if I’d call Cowl under-powered or tactically deficient. Harry knows he can’t beat him 1:1 after their first meeting in DB so he doesn’t even bother trying after. Which of Cowl’s tactics didn’t you like?
About Justin as Cowl:
  • I wouldn’t say Cowl is very interested in Harry. In fact we have never seen Cowl seek out Harry - their paths seem to cross every few years. In DB he does offer to take Harry as an apprentice but that’s about it (Grevane also makes this offer) - he’s actively pissed in WN that Madrigal deliberately involved Harry in the plot.
  • To your point that Cowl was performing the Darkhallow as a last resort - I do think there is some truth to this, although it seems like the most insane way to resolve the situation
  • Regarding Justin’s duel with Harry - it seems obvious that there was a lot more going on during the duel, but the question I haven’t been able to answer is what was the advantage to Justin in pulling this move?
    As a retiree of sorts he was off most people’s radar, which is how he raises Harry & Elaine for those years, so its not like Simon where he was a SC member. It also revealed Harry’s existence to the White Council, tarnished his own reputation & removed 2 Starborn out of his control completely (unless he’s made Elaine a fine thrall I suppose).

@AClone
What Red Court nobles did Simon’s death curse take out? Ortega was operational after the events of Archangel. There is also #C: Simon set off an explosion before pulling some necromantic shenanigans

@g33k
We know Harry believes this currently about Eb being the Council’s heavyweight champion, but that could change. Rashid & Langtry would come out on top I believe.
So Cowl doesn’t exactly hit Harry as hard as he can in their first meet in DB either - it was a test to see how strong Harry was.

@Bad Alias
Interesting - I had no idea of Simon’s backstory in the Paranet Papers, but it certainly makes him a more likely candidate for Cowl

Offline Bad Alias

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Re: Thoughts on Simon Petrovich being Cowl
« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2020, 05:24:24 AM »
Yuillegan did a much better job detailing it than I did.

If you haven't read any of the Paranet Papers, they're well worth reading if you can get your hands on a copy. They're kind of expensive if you're not looking actually use them to play. I'd rank them as soft canon just above the comic books. The way they're structured is to be vague about whether or not the things in them are true. The premise is that they're written by Billy, Bob, Murphy, and Harry. They're a working draft of a Bram Stoker's Dracula for the 21st century and not just black court vampires. They have reports of events from paraneters from all over the Americas. Because of that, it would be a very unreliable narrator kind of situation even if it was considered fully canon by Jim.

Offline g33k

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Re: Thoughts on Simon Petrovich being Cowl
« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2020, 08:42:39 AM »
... So while Harry does say that Eb is the heavyweight champion of the Council, it is pointed out that wizards gain power with age & Eb is likely the least powerful of the SC (I’m sure it’s meant in more ways than just 1:1 combat). Harry also does say on a couple of occasions that Langtry is the most powerful wizard alive ...

@g33k
We know Harry believes this currently about Eb being the Council’s heavyweight champion, but that could change. Rashid & Langtry would come out on top I believe.
So Cowl doesn’t exactly hit Harry as hard as he can in their first meet in DB either - it was a test to see how strong Harry was ...

Well, we know Eb was the Captain of the Wardens more than a century ago, and has presumably only gotten stronger since then.  Morgan was strong enough to be frightening to almost any wizard he went after; Luccio (pre-swap) even stronger; and McCoy *MUCH* stronger than that.

Langtry & McCoy were (roughly) peers.  They fought one another in their youth (more than once, I bet).

I (strongly) suspect that Langtry isn't as heavy a hitter as McCoy, but is more versatile:  more broadly powerful, even if he doesn't punch quite as hard.  Wards, mind-magic, and I suspect at least one Elemental form.

Rashid would win vs. either of them, I think, because of his foreknowledge & probably other stuff not yet seen.

WoJ says, "Rashid is, by far, the most dangerous of the Senior Council. Which is not the same thing as most powerful."

Offline Yuillegan

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Re: Thoughts on Simon Petrovich being Cowl
« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2020, 12:55:46 PM »
g33k - I agree, you basically summed up my thoughts on Eb and Langtry. But as for Rashid...I am not sure. I believe that quote was saying he is dangerous in the same way Harry is as Warden of Demonreach i.e. because they both could unleash Hell on Earth. In saying that, Rashid is the oldest Wizard on the White Council (possibly the world) and between his prescience and knowledge (particularly of the forbidden kind from beyond the Outer Gates - hinted at as the same dark magic as the ley-line coming from Demonreach among other things) I am sure he is very dangerous. He is quite possibly on the same level as Merlin (at least defensively - both he and Langtry stopped that army of Outsiders). I think that pretty much no Wizard would take him on head-to-head unless they had no other options. What I think Jim may have meant by "most dangerous...not the same as most powerful" is that he doesn't wield the same level of political power internally as the others (as he stays mostly out of it).

Bad Alias - Thank you, we clearly have read much of the same stuff. Yeah that was my conclusion. Good for theory crafting, not necessarily gospel.

Snark Knight - Well, I find your theory about the inclusion of Flamethrowers to defeat Kemmler highly intriguing. However I would remind you that upon Harry's death his spirit awoke/appeared "on the tracks" in the Not-Chicago train station. I don't believe his spirit immediately exited his body into ethereal plane (I am using some D&D terms here for simplicity). It seemed like he entered some plane of the Never-never between the ethereal and the "Here After". So I am not sure that either theory holds up entirely.

Also - I wasn't saying He Who Walks Behind worked for Justin. Indeed, GS seems to imply the opposite was true if anything. I was merely saying they were associates.

Kbrizzle -
I don't know that by attending Bianca's party Cowl was acting openly. But it's hard to say without further information. Mmm, perhaps I misremember but I believe there is a reference that Justin was there. At any rate he was connected to it all. The only connection Justin had to the vampire courts that I know of was with that aforementioned group. Which isn't to say he didn't have others. Eb is the most powerful in duels, and maybe has the most defeats to his name. Doesn't make him the strongest in terms of raw power (although I suspect he is close).

As for Cowl's spellwork and tactics...let me put it another way. Harry has often said any Senior Council wizard could take him apart. Were they to take Dresden on (even with the Alphas as support) I imagine they would still have ripped him apart (especially all the way back in Dead Beat). LtW, Rashid, Langtry or Eb would have killed Harry and his wolves before he got started. Ancient Mai would hardly fight in that way (she would use cats paws) but even so if she wanted to fight I imagine her enchantments and enchanted objects would be far beyond Harry.

Cowl on the other hand ran at the first sign of trouble and allowed Harry to flip a car on him. He is strong and competent, yes. But that isn't the same as being SC level.

Cowl's plan was insane. Probably because he is well on the way. Dark magic twists the mind. But so does regular old life. Who knows what's the main cause? The result is that he believes his plan and is at least as committed as Nicodemus to his personal cause. Or Lucifer.

It could have been Justin took advantage of a bad situation. But if it was all planned the advantages are much the same. He gains anonymity and an instant alibi for everything (being dead). He might have also gained insight and knowledge and advantages that only come from playing in the shadows on the borders of life (much like what several beings have hinted at Harry has). And finally - the lesson Lea talked about (how it is very hard to make a young wizard use violence as the problem solver and believe it is right). Perhaps others as well but time will tell.




Offline Snark Knight

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Re: Thoughts on Simon Petrovich being Cowl
« Reply #11 on: May 17, 2020, 01:18:43 AM »
So do you also think Simon is the most likely candidate for Cowl?

I'd give about 70% odds on it, yeah. Slightly lower odds on Elaine as Kumori, but possibly some sort of secondary personality that's not active most of the time.

Offline Bad Alias

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Re: Thoughts on Simon Petrovich being Cowl
« Reply #12 on: May 17, 2020, 05:16:29 AM »
Before using DB to judge Cowl's strength, remember that the all the necromancers were using mostly physical attacks on one another because they were conserving or had expended their magical tanks. That could be the reason Cowl didn't seem as strong as we would expect if he is secretly a member of the Senior Council.

Jim has said that Rashid is the most dangerous wizard, and I think he said the Merlin is the most powerful. Harry definitely has. If Eb is the most anything, it's probably strongest. As in he's got the biggest firehouse as Harry puts it. The Merlin would have to have enough skill or knowledge to outclass Eb to make him more powerful. In that little snippet from PT, Harry said that Eb was the most feared wizard.

Offline kbrizzle

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Re: Thoughts on Simon Petrovich being Cowl
« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2020, 05:45:03 AM »
I agree with @ Bad Alias that Cowl retreating from Harry & the Alphas shouldn’t be looked at as Cowl being a wuss per se - I imagine that he wanted to save his strength for what he thought of as his real threats - Grevane & Corpsetaker.

I also don’t think Eb is the most powerful mortal wizard alive either, although he likely has the most combat experience.

@Yuillegan
I mean Cowl was at a party in a fairly noticeable role, so much so that Harry recognized him despite never having interacted with him before. There were also likely members from every Signatory present at Bianca’s ball so it was a fairly high profile event.

I don’t recall any textual evidence of Justin having attended Maggie & Raith Sr’s dinner, the closest thing I can think of is when Eb tells Harry that Justin was an associate of his mother.

I still can’t think of many advantages Justin has by playing dead - the disadvantages outweigh the gains from what I can tell

Offline Arjan

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Re: Thoughts on Simon Petrovich being Cowl
« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2020, 07:02:48 AM »
I think Cowl is someone who is actually alive at this moment. About any powerful council member is a better candidate than Simon or Justin.

Outsiders don’t work for you. You may be able to make them do your bidding in the short run because they need mortal wizards to get here but they work for themselves. They also make you go mad if you associate too closely with them and you start serving their purpose even if you think you are not. Cowl is on that route as was Peabody.

Playing dead is only useful if you are at least a suspect in some way and only really useful if someone is actively looking for you. You sacrifice all influence and contacts you actually have to make people stop looking for you. Simon and Justin had no reason to hide and the way they died is not one they would choose when faking dead. Fire destroys everything and the dead curse most likely uses up valuable energy you need to return.

WG+++: The White God is Mister.
SH[Elaine+++]