Poll

Select if you believe the statement is correct.

Mab wanted to kidnapp Molly.
44 (22.9%)
Mab never intended Harry to pour summer fire in the well.
36 (18.8%)
The Gatekeeper wanted to prevent an outsider infection.
34 (17.7%)
Mab fixed Little Chicago.
32 (16.7%)
Harry was the real attack on Artis Tor.
15 (7.8%)
Maeve was at Splattercon!!!
31 (16.1%)

Total Members Voted: 57

Author Topic: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty  (Read 22100 times)

Offline Elegast

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[CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
« on: December 04, 2012, 05:11:17 PM »
After yesterday's thread about Small Favor, here comes the complete explanation of Proven Guilty!  ;D

I gathered all the pre-CD theories about PG in my compendium. Let me quote the best parts:

Quote
Theories



Each theory is given a percentage estimating its credibility. I use poll results if available, I guess-estimate otherwise.

Theory: Mab wanted to kidnapp Molly 95%


We are almost sure it's true because of this WOJ:
Yeah.  It sure looks that way from here, don't it.

But to correct some minor stuff:  the fetches aren't even /close/ to her strongest servitors.  They're her couriers, harassers, spies and occasional assassins.  Captain Kudzu was a being that was deemed more-or-less sufficient on the badassometer, but nothing to write home about.  The fetches main use, to Mab, isn't as battlefield thugs.  She's got /plenty/ of other things for that.  Another mild correction:  who says Mab /lost/ the battle at Arctis Tor, before Harry and Company arrived?  At the end of the day, the Winter Queen was still in her fortress--but you didn't see anyone standing around assaulting the place, did ya.   Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

(Which goes to show that while Mab may be canny to an inhuman degree, she isn't infallible.  Just way closer to infallible than us.)

See above regarding "the question is *why*?" 

Ask yourself why Mab had Molly brought in.  What chain of events did that set in motion?  What secondary effects came about because of it?  Ultimately, Mab can always go to the Wyld and draw in more muscle to replace fallen thugs.  If worst comes to worst, with just a few "seed" fae, she could rear up enough Changelings to repopulate her cadre within a human generation or two--nothing, to a being thousands of years old. 

As far as she's concerned, everyone and everything is expendable, including herself, when it comes to adhering to her (seemingly irrational and inexplicable) priorities.

(And by the way--don't think Titania is much better.  When push came to shove, she let her own daughter be murdered rather than upset the balance of the Faerie Courts.  At least Mab is up front about it.  Usually.)

Sacrifice her best troops?  Mab would sacrifice every creature *in* Winter, every one she could bring from Summer, and every single mortal on planet Earth if that's what she thought was appropriate.  And she wouldn't even need to add extra sugar to her cup of tea afterwards, much less lose sleep over it.

But no one does cold-blooded like the Queen of Winter.  Mab's been in the business a long time, she's got a balance sheet, and she is *not* going to come out in the red--

--unless, of course, she really *has* stripped a gear, as Lily and Maeve believe.  In which case there's a stark raving bonkers demigoddess whose powers are no longer being held in check by the Escher-esque code of Sidhe behavior.  And that's all kinds of bad.

But hey.  It's probably not that.  I mean, not *everything* that happens can be the absolute worst possible possibility, right?

Jim

So Mab sent the fetches. Then she knows that Harry will send them back to the sender, as it is standard WC procedure:
Quote
Bob’s eyelights brightened even more. “Ooooooo, classic White Council doctrine. When the phages come through, you point them straight at the guy who summoned them. Give him a dose of his own medicine.”

Theory:  Mab never intended Harry to pour summer fire in the well. 74% (51 votes)


From the same WOJ:
Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

(Which goes to show that while Mab may be canny to an inhuman degree, she isn't infallible.  Just way closer to infallible than us.)

Theory:  Mab fixed Little Chicago 65% 


MsDuck theory, the only other famous theory is time-travelling Harry, which has absolutely no proof.
(click to show/hide)


Theory: B.C. was involved in Molly's turn to the dark side 54%(31 votes)


BC in Chicago:

Fact is, we have circumstantial evidence of Black Council activity in Chicago during PG:

  • Madrigal is a known cats-paw for the BC.  Someone invited him over a year before the convention started.  Speculation is that he covering for **something**
  • Sandra Marlin is the one who gets Molly thinking about using magical fear to stop a drug addiction.  She also used to work at a homeless shelter (Marva warning bells here).  If we believe the RPG as cannon, she also disappeared shortly after the events of PG.
Theory: Lea was possessed by an Ousider 45% (31 votes)



Quote from: PG-pg322
  “Child,” she said. Her voice was weak. “You must not free me.”
     I stared at her, feeling confused. “Why?”
     She gritted her teeth and said, “I cannot yet be trusted. It is not time. I would not be able to
fulfill my promise to your mother, should you free me now. You must leave.”
     “Trusted?” I asked.
     “No time,” she said, voice strained again. “I cannot long keep it from taking hold of…” She shuddered
and lowered her head. She lifted her face to me a few seconds later, and the madness had returned to
her eyes. “Wait,” she rasped. “I have reconsidered. Free me.”
     I traded a look with Thomas, and we both took a cautious step backward.
     Lea’s face twisted up with rage and she let out a howl that shook icicles from their positions.
“Release me!”
We all know Lea is a little off her rocker when we first meet her at the beginning of GP.  And she's still a little off her rocker after Mab has 'cured' her of her illness.

It's common speculation that her crazier self was induced by the power she gained by possessing the athame.

But here, we see her say that she "cannot long keep it from taking hold of” her.

What was it that was taking hold of her, that she couldn't control?  Could it be something other than just insanity?

I present thee with the following:

  • We know from Lash's statements in WN that Outsiders can possess other beings, even of the supernatural variety.
    Quote from: WN-pg406
    Lasciel squared her shoulders and straightened. “You’re right,” she said. “It is my choice. Listen to
    me.” She leaned closer, her eyes intent. “Vittorio has been given power. That is how he can do this. He
    is possessed.”
         I wished I could have raised my eyebrows. Possessed by what?
         “An Outsider,” Lasciel said. “I have felt such a presence before. This attack is drawn directly from the
    mind of the Outsider.”
  •   We know that He Who Walks Behind returned to Earth at the end of BR.
    Quote from: BR-pg335
    I remember three more things from that night in the Deeps.
         First was Madge’s body. As I turned to leave, it suddenly sat up. Spines protruded from its skin, along
    with rivulets of slow, dead blood. Its face was ravaged shapeless, but it formed up into the features of the
    demon called He Who Walks Behind, and its mouth spoke in a honey-smooth, honey-sweet, inhuman voice.
    “I am returned, mortal man,” the demon said through Madge’s dead lips. “And I remember thee. Thou and I,
    we have unfinished business between us.”
         Then there was a bubbling hiss, and the corpse deflated like an empty balloon.
  • Lea was attempting to use the power of the athame do something.
    Quote from: PG-pg320
       “Lea,” I said. “What has happened to you? How long have you been a Sidhe-sicle?”
         Some of the strength seemed to ebb from her, and she suddenly seemed exhausted. “I grew too arrogant
    with the power I held. I thought I could overcome what stalks us all. Foolish. Milady Queen Mab taught me the
    error of my ways.”


What if, as part of her protecting Harry, Lea tried to take on HHWB, and was instead possessed?  And Mab had to imprison her until after she could be exorcised.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2012, 06:44:40 PM by Elegast »
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Offline Elegast

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Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2012, 05:11:40 PM »
Quote
Theory: Maeve was at Splattercon 45% (31 votes)


(click to show/hide)
.

Theory: The Scarecrow was boosted by Ousider power 29% (31 votes)


This is Neurovore's hypothesis. it led Jim to ask:
Dear god.  Are you a CIA analyst or something?
Now some may doubt it, but remember: Mab needs a motive for kidnapping Molly, and according to a WOJ, the damage to the Winter Well was not planned. Here are Neurovore's arguments:
The Scarecrow is a "Black Council" agent - in this case a Circle agent.

Compare, Harry, p.476 of PG pb: "Consider all these things running around with more power than they should have had."  With p.366 ibid "This thing was no fetch, no changer of form and image and illusion. There was no shadowy mask over an amorphous form, no glamour altering its appearance, which my salve would have enabled me to see through.  This thing was a whole independent creature.  Except maybe it was a fetch so old and strong... "  (Emphasis mine.)  The "old strong fetch" theory is not what one might call confirmed.

Compare also, p. 368 ibid, "A lance of flame as thick as my wrist lashed out from the tip of the rod - and died two feet away from it, the burning energy of the strike swallowed by an unfathomable ocean of cold cold power."  That's not how entities toughing it out against Harry's fire from sheer resilience behave - see Grum in Reuel's apartment in SK, see Ursiel in DM.  What it is reminiscent of is Lord Raith's immunity to magic. Which we are pretty certain is Outsider based, which leads back to the Circle again.

The Scarecrow is an entity that has been let into Arctis Tor by some agreement Mab is held to under duress.  Mab's motivation in manipulating Harry is not only to get Summer to flatten the Reds, but also to be rid of the Scarecrow in a deniable way.

To play devil's advocate to myself, and expand from a line of reasoning JRBobC was suggesting in the other thread:

Suppose the Scarecrow is only an old strong fetch.  Suppose Mab is willing to sacrifice it for the sake of getting Summer to flatten the Reds.  Suppose the Circle have nothing directly to do with anything in PG.  It holds together pretty much equally well, if you don't find the observations I make above convincing, and leaves the athame-vectored craziness as a separate piece of plotting entirely.

There is also the other element of how Harry got into Arctis Tor to consider in each case.  There's nothing defending Arctis Tor but some fetches, because something, armed with Hellfire, took out a small army of goblins and a pack of trolls. 

(Given that Harry knows Hellfire, I think we can rule out the Scarecrow's unfetchlike powers being Denarian-based, fwiw.)

Theory: Time travelling Harry 25%


(click to show/hide)

.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2012, 05:56:43 PM by Serack »
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Offline Elegast

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Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2012, 05:12:17 PM »
The theories were:

  • Mab fixed LC by Ms Duck and AcornArmy
  • Lea is outsider possessed, by Knnn
  • the BC push Molly toward the dark side, by Knnn
  • the Scarecrow is possessed by an Outsider, by Neurovore
  • Maeve was at Splattercon, by your humble servitor
  • Time travel HArry, by Gryffin 612

Now the good news: almost all the theories were correct!

Mab wanted to kidnapp Molly


Now we're almost certain it's true, due to this WOJ, and Mab future plan concerning Molly:

Quote
Yeah.  It sure looks that way from here, don't it.

But to correct some minor stuff:  the fetches aren't even /close/ to her strongest servitors.  They're her couriers, harassers, spies and occasional assassins.  Captain Kudzu was a being that was deemed more-or-less sufficient on the badassometer, but nothing to write home about.  The fetches main use, to Mab, isn't as battlefield thugs.  She's got /plenty/ of other things for that.  Another mild correction:  who says Mab /lost/ the battle at Arctis Tor, before Harry and Company arrived?  At the end of the day, the Winter Queen was still in her fortress--but you didn't see anyone standing around assaulting the place, did ya.   Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

(Which goes to show that while Mab may be canny to an inhuman degree, she isn't infallible.  Just way closer to infallible than us.)

See above regarding "the question is *why*?" 

Ask yourself why Mab had Molly brought in.  What chain of events did that set in motion?  What secondary effects came about because of it?  Ultimately, Mab can always go to the Wyld and draw in more muscle to replace fallen thugs.  If worst comes to worst, with just a few "seed" fae, she could rear up enough Changelings to repopulate her cadre within a human generation or two--nothing, to a being thousands of years old. 

As far as she's concerned, everyone and everything is expendable, including herself, when it comes to adhering to her (seemingly irrational and inexplicable) priorities.

(And by the way--don't think Titania is much better.  When push came to shove, she let her own daughter be murdered rather than upset the balance of the Faerie Courts.  At least Mab is up front about it.  Usually.)

Sacrifice her best troops?  Mab would sacrifice every creature *in* Winter, every one she could bring from Summer, and every single mortal on planet Earth if that's what she thought was appropriate.  And she wouldn't even need to add extra sugar to her cup of tea afterwards, much less lose sleep over it.

But no one does cold-blooded like the Queen of Winter.  Mab's been in the business a long time, she's got a balance sheet, and she is *not* going to come out in the red--

--unless, of course, she really *has* stripped a gear, as Lily and Maeve believe.  In which case there's a stark raving bonkers demigoddess whose powers are no longer being held in check by the Escher-esque code of Sidhe behavior.  And that's all kinds of bad.

But hey.  It's probably not that.  I mean, not *everything* that happens can be the absolute worst possible possibility, right?

Jim

So Mab sent the fetches. Then she knows that Harry will send them back to the sender, as it is standard WC procedure:
Quote
Bob’s eyelights brightened even more. “Ooooooo, classic White Council doctrine. When the phages come through, you point them straight at the guy who summoned them. Give him a dose of his own medicine.”

Mab never intended Harry to pour summer fire in the well.

From the same WOJ:
Quote
Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

(Which goes to show that while Mab may be canny to an inhuman degree, she isn't infallible.  Just way closer to infallible than us.)

That gets almost certain, as it forced the troops fighting the Outsiders to come back to Artis Tor, where they were stuck by Maeve Time-dilatation spell. Mab would never allowed that, and it was Maeve working for Nemesis who made it happen.


What the Gatekeeper wanted to prevent?

Quote
“So what you’re saying is that by sending me this warning, he’s indirectly working some other angle completely?”

“I’m saying that the Gatekeeper is usually a hell of a lot more specific about this kind of thing,” Bob said. “All of the Senior Council take black magic seriously. There’s got to be a reason he’s throwing it at you like this. My gut says he’s working from a temporal angle.”

“You don’t have any guts,” I said sourly.

“Your jealousy of my intellect is an ugly, ugly thing, Harry,” Bob said.

I scowled. “Get to the point.”

“Right, boss,” said the skull. “The point is that black magic is very hard to find when you look for it directly. If you try to bring up instances of black magic on your model, like Little Chicago is some kind of evil-juju radar array, it’s probably going to blow up in your face.”

“The Gatekeeper put me on guard against black magic,” I said. “But maybe he’s telling me that so that I can watch for something else. Something black-magic related.”

What could be more important for the Gatekeeper that stopping a warlock? Stopping an infection of course. When you look closely at the Gatekeeper interventions (SK, TC, PG), it's always to stop the infection.

Let me quote Harry when he soulgazes Molly:
Quote
But the last…

The last reflection of Molly wasn’t the girl. Oh, it looked like Molly, externally. But the eyes gave it away. They were flat as a reptile’s, empty. She wore all black, including a black collar, and her hair had been dyed to match. Though she looked like Molly, like a human being, she was neither. She had become something else entirely, something very, very bad.

That was Molly taken by Nemesis. Rashid had foreseen it. So he sends a message to Harry to stop it.

So Knnn was right about the BC, and Sandra Marling was in all probability their agent. I would also point that Sandra's day job was to spread knowledge among mortals of all kind of horrors, which could be quite significant given what we know about the Oblivion war...

Why Mab wanted to capture Molly?

After CD, it becomes far clearer: she wanted a spare Lady. By kidnapping Molly, she saves her from the infection, she gets to imbue her with Winter while she's near the wellspring, she makes sure Harry takes her as her apprentice, bringing Molly within her sphere of influence.

Who fixed LC?

Mab or Time-travelling Harry.

 After CD all the main objections are dead to Mab doing it are dead, especially the wards problem, but Time-traveling Harry is also a strong possibility.

Nemesis attack on Mab

That's the new part, which Neurovore had largely guessed despite the lack of many crucial clues.

Proven Guilty was an attack of Nemesis on Mab.

Nemesis had infected the winter Lady, via Lea. Mab would suspect it in short order, as she had done with Lea. It was time to use Maeve to attack Mab. The objective of the attack was to force Mab to pull her troops from the borders.

Let us review how it was done.

First came the attack on Artis Tor. It had several objectives: freeing Lea (who was indeed infected as we had predicted), capturing the athame, and first and foremost forcing Mab to bring her troops back. It seemingly failed: the attack was defeated, and Mab didn't bring anyone in. However, in the long run it would force Mab to reinforce her inner guard, and it was only a feint for the real attack.

Harry was the real attack on Artis Tor.

Yes.  ;D

The first one was doomed from the beginning, Harry, Nemesis's cat's paw was the real danger. Maeve wanted to bring the troops far from the border to help Nemesis, and Lily was doing the same thing in order to harm the Reds (she didn't know about Mab's true purpose).

Quote
Fix blinked at Lily. “You’re working with Maeve?”

“She couldn’t have altered the flow of time at the heart of Winter,” I said quietly. “Only one of the Winter Queens could do that.”

Fix blinked at Lily as if I hadn’t spoken. “Maeve’s working with you?”

Lily nodded. “Like us, she fears Mab’s recent madness.” She turned back to me. “I provided you with power enough to threaten the wellspring, in the hope that you would draw some portion of Winter back into its own demesnes. Once that was done, Maeve altered the passage of time relative to the mortal realms.”


Nemesis plan was to give Harry some summer fire, to let him attack the wellspring. But to achieve such a level of micro-management, he needed an agent. Let me quote the scene where Harry attacks the wellspring:
Quote
The Scarecrow let out an ear-splitting trilling chirp, like a summer locust on steroids, and it bounded to one side in an effort to keep the mounded ice of the fountain between us. I’d already seen how fast a fetch could move, and didn’t bother with a snap shot. Instead, I let it distance itself from Molly and Charity, until it reached cover behind the fountain’s ice and stopped moving.

Then I blew two-thirds of that dome away in a single blast of light, thunder, and fire.

See? The scarecrow stays right behind the spring, and present himself as the perfect target for Harry's summer fire. The Scarecrow was infected and Neurovore was right!

 
« Last Edit: May 18, 2014, 08:56:26 PM by Elegast »
My "Maeve came to Splattercon!!! disguised as a vampire" theory : Maeve did it

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Offline Elegast

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Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2012, 05:12:37 PM »
Nemesis wins

PG was a victory for Nemesis. He managed to remove all the forces of Winter from the borders, leading to massive infiltrations of Outsiders.

Maeve at Splattercon

There is no doubt now that Maeve was calling the shots in the Maeve/Lily duo.

I still believe she was sent by Mab in Chicago to make sure that Harry really went to Artis Tor. She obeyed the order, as Nemesis had planned to use Harry against Mab.

Raith

Was infected, and a cover for Mab, he was there to hide Mab's manipulation (e.g. he could have been the one who called the fetches (a Wampire in a location tied to its nature) to create fear, so poor Mab is innocent)

Glau

Glau was probably twice a traitor: infected, he was working with Mab too. Mab sends Scarecrow to kill him, Nemesis sacrifices a low level agent.

The grey Chrysler

Ace tried and failed.

Sandra Marling

Quote from: Proven Guilty
“Where do you know her from?” I asked. “Not church, I guess.”
Molly looked at me obliquely for a second and then said, “She’s a part-time volunteer at one of the shelters where I’m doing community service.

Marling could be an employee of House Malvora too. Even a Malvora cub. We know the Raiths own pornography studios, I would not be surprised that the Malvoras own horror theaters, conventions, and so on...

Some names:
Lara
Elisa
Nathalia
Sandra

The problem is that Jim already has a bias towards M and A: Mavra, Mab, Madrigal, Madeline, Marlings, Marcone, Margaret, Malory,Mac, Malcome, Maeve, Madge, Marion, Marco, Malone, Amanda *2, Mouse ...

EDIT: Raith == Romary
         Malvora =?= Marlings

Proximity in both cases.

Time travel Harry

Possible but unnecessary for the moment.
« Last Edit: December 08, 2012, 09:38:44 PM by Elegast »
My "Maeve came to Splattercon!!! disguised as a vampire" theory : Maeve did it

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Offline Elegast

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Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2012, 05:12:55 PM »
And just for fun, the whole list of PG mysteries with their solution:

Mysteries



  • Why did Mab bring Molly into Arctis Tor?                  To have a spare Lady
  • What was the Gatekeeper trying to prevent?             An infection of Molly
  • What happened to Lea?                                          She was infected by Nemesis
  • What did Raith knew?                                            Nothing. He was a pawn.
  • Who tried to kill Harry in the Grey Chrysler?             Ace.
  • Who fixed Little Chicago?                                       Mab
  • Why Mab kept all her troops at the border?               She was busy fighting Nemesis without her knight and Lea
  • Why was Glau killed?                                            To remove any proof that Mab was master-minding the attacks
  • Who closed Pell's theater?                                      Maeve
  • Why was the Scarecrow immune to Harry's magic?    He was old and badass.
  • Who is Sandra Marling?                                         A BC operative
  • Who was seen fleeing during the second attack?        Maeve.
  • Did Mab foresaw the attack on the Spring?               No.
  • Who attacked Artis Tor?                                        Nemesis, Namshiel, outsiders.
  • Who put up the ward at Splat.?                              Maeve
  • Who cut the fire alarm and power at Splat.?             Maeve
« Last Edit: December 04, 2012, 06:30:50 PM by Elegast »
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Offline Serack

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Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2012, 05:59:58 PM »
I've added WoJ quote code to your first 2 posts.  You might still be messing with reply 2 (post 3) so I'm not going to mess with it yet, besides the WoJ there is the same one, so if you wanted the code is already available.

Your first post is on the edge when it comes to hitting the 20k character limit, and I had to remove the WoJ reference link ahead of the last WoJ quote to get back within toleance, but it's now built into the quote code so nothing lost.

You might take the time later to edit this quote code into your origional posts these are copied from.
DF WoJ Compilation
Green is my curator voice.
Name dropping "Serack" in a post /will/ draw my attention to it

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Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2012, 06:13:07 PM »
I've added WoJ quote code to your first 2 posts.  You might still be messing with reply 2 (post 3) so I'm not going to mess with it yet, besides the WoJ there is the same one, so if you wanted the code is already available.

Your first post is on the edge when it comes to hitting the 20k character limit, and I had to remove the WoJ reference link ahead of the last WoJ quote to get back within toleance, but it's now built into the quote code so nothing lost.

You might take the time later to edit this quote code into your origional posts these are copied from.

Thx. I think I'll stop there for today. I'll re-read later to clarify, improve grammar/spelling/logic/formatting.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2012, 06:17:07 PM by Elegast »
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Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2012, 06:46:34 PM »
Impressive Elegast, it lays out and answers just about everything from PG
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Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
« Reply #8 on: December 04, 2012, 06:58:58 PM »
Impressive Elegast, it lays out and answers just about everything from PG

As Knnn said yesterday, knowing that Nemesis is Mab's enemy makes everything clearer. We were watching a fight where one of the fighter was invisible. So it was really hard to make sense of Mab's action.
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Offline Serack

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Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
« Reply #9 on: December 04, 2012, 07:09:24 PM »
As Knnn said yesterday, knowing that Nemesis is Mab's enemy makes everything clearer. We were watching a fight where one of the fighter was invisible. So it was really hard to make sense of Mab's action.

Nemesis is still rather enigmatic though.

Is the piece of Nemesis in all infected beings completely in tune with (communicating with) all the others making for perfect cordination?  What is necessary for the infection to spread? 

Something tells me that Nemesis's control over a being is more effective if it remains subtle, or it can get more use out of said being if the being still retains its own identity.  This closely parallels my understanding of Denarian's relationships with their hosts, and is based off of our experiences with Cat Sith.  It appears that Cat Sith was not wholy a willing participant in nemesis's plans and as such was not as much of a bad ass.  However, Maeve and other Nemesis operatives were truely ambitious and acting out these ambitions in a way that segued with Nemesis's plans and thus were more effective operatives... 
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Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2012, 07:35:44 PM »
Some thoughts:

1) Yet again, Elegast -- you've come up with amazing explanation for everything.  Kudos

2) Nevertheless, I'm not as happy with this one, as it totally comes off as a big win for Nemesis.  As a Mab fan, I would have preferred for this to be at least a draw. On the other hand, I suppose this makes Mab success in SmF even more awesome...

3) One weak point of the theory seems to be the lack of a reason for the false attack on AT.  It seems like Mab herself set in motion the chain of events that would bring Harry to shoot fire into the Well.  As such, the first attack is little more than a diversion -- and one easily defeated.

4) Also, Mab winking at Harry seems a little incongruous given that she just suffered a major defeat.  Add to that the WoJ that doesn't scan to me as Mab suffering a defeat...   ...still, you have everything lined up nicely.  I'm going to have to think about this a bit more.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2012, 07:43:49 PM by knnn »
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Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
« Reply #11 on: December 04, 2012, 07:43:07 PM »
Something tells me that Nemesis's control over a being is more effective if it remains subtle, or it can get more use out of said being if the being still retains its own identity.

^this^

Consider that we're dealing with beings who are playing a chess game across the universe, and that given the resources available to both sides brute-force is almost never going to work.  Also, since both are neigh-infallible predicting machines, each will be continually shutting down the other's gambits, ending each round in a stalemate.  The only way one of them can really get an advantage is by playing a game where not all the variables can be predicted --- by either side.

In practice what this means is that both sides are playing with mortal pawns while only subtly using their influence (which would be countered by the other side), and taking big chances (e.g. risking the Archive) in the hopes the their limited vision will triumph. 

Interesting enough, one can argue that the fact that mortals have free will is the key point of the battle -- in a sense, those minor decisions are the only ones that are unpredictable by both Mab and Nemesis, and so success or failure of their eternal conflict hinges precisely on that.

-- This might even serve to explain why Mab smiles every time Harry stands up to her.  The fact that he isn't bowing down to her desires means that he still is unpredictable to an extent -- he is still useful as a pawn.

« Last Edit: December 04, 2012, 07:44:38 PM by knnn »
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Offline Elegast

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Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
« Reply #12 on: December 04, 2012, 07:47:43 PM »
Some thoughts:

1) Yet again, Elegast -- you've come up with amazing explanation for everything.  Kudos

2) Nevertheless, I'm not as happy with this one, as it totally comes off as a big win for Nemesis.  As a Mab fan, I would have preferred for this to be at least a draw. On the other hand, I suppose this makes Mab success in SmF even more awesome...

3) One weak point of the theory seems to be the lack the reason for the false attack on AT.  It seems like Mab herself set in motion the chain of events that would bring Harry to shoot fire into the Well.  As such, the first attack is little more than a diversion -- and one easily defeated.

4) Also, Mab winking at Harry seems a little incongruous given that she just suffered a major defeat.  Add to that the WoJ that doesn't scan to me as Mab suffering a defeat...   ...still, you have everything lined up nicely.  I'm going to have to think about this a bit more.

1) Thx.

2) Mab can't win them all, or there would be no BAT.

3) You're right. The Arctis Tor attack is the weakest link, as my explanation is not really convincing. I have a second possibility: Nemesis killed the guard of Arctis Tor to let Harry survive the attack. Had he not, the trolls would have flattened Harry in 3 s, so no chase after Harry

4) I don't really know what to think of the wink.
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Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
« Reply #13 on: December 04, 2012, 07:55:06 PM »
Add to that the WoJ that doesn't scan to me as Mab suffering a defeat...   

Quote from: WOJ
who says Mab /lost/ the battle at Arctis Tor, before Harry and Company arrived?

 ;D
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Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
« Reply #14 on: December 04, 2012, 08:04:29 PM »
;D

Yes, it  occurred to me that the WoJ could be read that way...

As I said, I'm going to have to think about this a bit, but for now my working theory is that Mab was entirely getting her way, at least until Harry poured Summer Fire.

So:
1) Mab rescues Molly from Nemesis.
2) Thwarts the first attack.
3) **not sure about Scarecrow

-- Harry does what he does best

4) Nemesis pulls off a last minute upset by having Maeve slow time.  This outs Maeve (note that this possibly happens after the wink, so Mab might well still be feeling smug), but the damage is done.

Note:
- An interesting thing would be to look back at Jim's CIA response to Neuro's original post in light of our current theories.  It might be that there is some cryptic phrase in there that might suddenly click.

- Come to think of it, there was also that WoJ about "exactly two things correct" regarding demonreach.  We might have better intelligence about that one.

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