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The Dresden Files => DF Spoilers => DF Reference Collection => Topic started by: Elegast on December 04, 2012, 05:11:17 PM

Title: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Elegast on December 04, 2012, 05:11:17 PM
After yesterday's thread about Small Favor, here comes the complete explanation of Proven Guilty!  ;D

I gathered all the pre-CD theories about PG in my compendium (http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,32914.0.html). Let me quote the best parts:

Quote
Theories



Each theory is given a percentage estimating its credibility. I use poll results if available, I guess-estimate otherwise.

Theory: Mab wanted to kidnapp Molly  95%


We are almost sure it's true because of this WOJ:
Yeah.  It sure looks that way from here, don't it.

But to correct some minor stuff:  the fetches aren't even /close/ to her strongest servitors.  They're her couriers, harassers, spies and occasional assassins.  Captain Kudzu was a being that was deemed more-or-less sufficient on the badassometer, but nothing to write home about.  The fetches main use, to Mab, isn't as battlefield thugs.  She's got /plenty/ of other things for that.  Another mild correction:  who says Mab /lost/ the battle at Arctis Tor, before Harry and Company arrived?  At the end of the day, the Winter Queen was still in her fortress--but you didn't see anyone standing around assaulting the place, did ya.   Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

(Which goes to show that while Mab may be canny to an inhuman degree, she isn't infallible.  Just way closer to infallible than us.)

See above regarding "the question is *why*?" 

Ask yourself why Mab had Molly brought in.  What chain of events did that set in motion?  What secondary effects came about because of it?  Ultimately, Mab can always go to the Wyld and draw in more muscle to replace fallen thugs.  If worst comes to worst, with just a few "seed" fae, she could rear up enough Changelings to repopulate her cadre within a human generation or two--nothing, to a being thousands of years old. 

As far as she's concerned, everyone and everything is expendable, including herself, when it comes to adhering to her (seemingly irrational and inexplicable) priorities.

(And by the way--don't think Titania is much better.  When push came to shove, she let her own daughter be murdered rather than upset the balance of the Faerie Courts.  At least Mab is up front about it.  Usually.)

Sacrifice her best troops?  Mab would sacrifice every creature *in* Winter, every one she could bring from Summer, and every single mortal on planet Earth if that's what she thought was appropriate.  And she wouldn't even need to add extra sugar to her cup of tea afterwards, much less lose sleep over it.

But no one does cold-blooded like the Queen of Winter.  Mab's been in the business a long time, she's got a balance sheet, and she is *not* going to come out in the red--

--unless, of course, she really *has* stripped a gear, as Lily and Maeve believe.  In which case there's a stark raving bonkers demigoddess whose powers are no longer being held in check by the Escher-esque code of Sidhe behavior.  And that's all kinds of bad.

But hey.  It's probably not that.  I mean, not *everything* that happens can be the absolute worst possible possibility, right?

Jim

So Mab sent the fetches. Then she knows that Harry will send them back to the sender, as it is standard WC procedure:
Quote
Bob’s eyelights brightened even more. “Ooooooo, classic White Council doctrine. When the phages come through, you point them straight at the guy who summoned them. Give him a dose of his own medicine.”

Theory:  Mab never intended Harry to pour summer fire in the well. 74% (51 votes)


From the same WOJ:
Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

(Which goes to show that while Mab may be canny to an inhuman degree, she isn't infallible.  Just way closer to infallible than us.)

Theory:  Mab fixed Little Chicago 65% 


MsDuck theory, the only other famous theory is time-travelling Harry, which has absolutely no proof.
(click to show/hide)


Theory: B.C. was involved in Molly's turn to the dark side 54%(31 votes)


BC in Chicago:

Fact is, we have circumstantial evidence of Black Council activity in Chicago during PG:

  • Madrigal is a known cats-paw for the BC.  Someone invited him over a year before the convention started.  Speculation is that he covering for **something**
  • Sandra Marlin is the one who gets Molly thinking about using magical fear to stop a drug addiction.  She also used to work at a homeless shelter (Marva warning bells here).  If we believe the RPG as cannon, she also disappeared shortly after the events of PG.
Theory: Lea was possessed by an Ousider 45% (31 votes)



Quote from: PG-pg322
  “Child,” she said. Her voice was weak. “You must not free me.”
     I stared at her, feeling confused. “Why?”
     She gritted her teeth and said, “I cannot yet be trusted. It is not time. I would not be able to
fulfill my promise to your mother, should you free me now. You must leave.”
     “Trusted?” I asked.
     “No time,” she said, voice strained again. “I cannot long keep it from taking hold of…” She shuddered
and lowered her head. She lifted her face to me a few seconds later, and the madness had returned to
her eyes. “Wait,” she rasped. “I have reconsidered. Free me.”
     I traded a look with Thomas, and we both took a cautious step backward.
     Lea’s face twisted up with rage and she let out a howl that shook icicles from their positions.
“Release me!”
We all know Lea is a little off her rocker when we first meet her at the beginning of GP.  And she's still a little off her rocker after Mab has 'cured' her of her illness.

It's common speculation that her crazier self was induced by the power she gained by possessing the athame.

But here, we see her say that she "cannot long keep it from taking hold of” her.

What was it that was taking hold of her, that she couldn't control?  Could it be something other than just insanity?

I present thee with the following:

  • We know from Lash's statements in WN that Outsiders can possess other beings, even of the supernatural variety.
    Quote from: WN-pg406
    Lasciel squared her shoulders and straightened. “You’re right,” she said. “It is my choice. Listen to
    me.” She leaned closer, her eyes intent. “Vittorio has been given power. That is how he can do this. He
    is possessed.”
         I wished I could have raised my eyebrows. Possessed by what?
         “An Outsider,” Lasciel said. “I have felt such a presence before. This attack is drawn directly from the
    mind of the Outsider.”
  •   We know that He Who Walks Behind returned to Earth at the end of BR.
    Quote from: BR-pg335
    I remember three more things from that night in the Deeps.
         First was Madge’s body. As I turned to leave, it suddenly sat up. Spines protruded from its skin, along
    with rivulets of slow, dead blood. Its face was ravaged shapeless, but it formed up into the features of the
    demon called He Who Walks Behind, and its mouth spoke in a honey-smooth, honey-sweet, inhuman voice.
    “I am returned, mortal man,” the demon said through Madge’s dead lips. “And I remember thee. Thou and I,
    we have unfinished business between us.”
         Then there was a bubbling hiss, and the corpse deflated like an empty balloon.
  • Lea was attempting to use the power of the athame do something.
    Quote from: PG-pg320
       “Lea,” I said. “What has happened to you? How long have you been a Sidhe-sicle?”
         Some of the strength seemed to ebb from her, and she suddenly seemed exhausted. “I grew too arrogant
    with the power I held. I thought I could overcome what stalks us all. Foolish. Milady Queen Mab taught me the
    error of my ways.”


What if, as part of her protecting Harry, Lea tried to take on HHWB, and was instead possessed?  And Mab had to imprison her until after she could be exorcised.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Elegast on December 04, 2012, 05:11:40 PM
Quote
Theory: Maeve was at Splattercon 45% (31 votes)


(click to show/hide)
.

Theory: The Scarecrow was boosted by Ousider power 29% (31 votes)


This is Neurovore's hypothesis. it led Jim to ask:
Dear god.  Are you a CIA analyst or something?
Now some may doubt it, but remember: Mab needs a motive for kidnapping Molly, and according to a WOJ, the damage to the Winter Well was not planned. Here are Neurovore's arguments:
The Scarecrow is a "Black Council" agent - in this case a Circle agent.

Compare, Harry, p.476 of PG pb: "Consider all these things running around with more power than they should have had."  With p.366 ibid "This thing was no fetch, no changer of form and image and illusion. There was no shadowy mask over an amorphous form, no glamour altering its appearance, which my salve would have enabled me to see through.  This thing was a whole independent creature.  Except maybe it was a fetch so old and strong... "  (Emphasis mine.)  The "old strong fetch" theory is not what one might call confirmed.

Compare also, p. 368 ibid, "A lance of flame as thick as my wrist lashed out from the tip of the rod - and died two feet away from it, the burning energy of the strike swallowed by an unfathomable ocean of cold cold power."  That's not how entities toughing it out against Harry's fire from sheer resilience behave - see Grum in Reuel's apartment in SK, see Ursiel in DM.  What it is reminiscent of is Lord Raith's immunity to magic. Which we are pretty certain is Outsider based, which leads back to the Circle again.

The Scarecrow is an entity that has been let into Arctis Tor by some agreement Mab is held to under duress.  Mab's motivation in manipulating Harry is not only to get Summer to flatten the Reds, but also to be rid of the Scarecrow in a deniable way.

To play devil's advocate to myself, and expand from a line of reasoning JRBobC was suggesting in the other thread:

Suppose the Scarecrow is only an old strong fetch.  Suppose Mab is willing to sacrifice it for the sake of getting Summer to flatten the Reds.  Suppose the Circle have nothing directly to do with anything in PG.  It holds together pretty much equally well, if you don't find the observations I make above convincing, and leaves the athame-vectored craziness as a separate piece of plotting entirely.

There is also the other element of how Harry got into Arctis Tor to consider in each case.  There's nothing defending Arctis Tor but some fetches, because something, armed with Hellfire, took out a small army of goblins and a pack of trolls. 

(Given that Harry knows Hellfire, I think we can rule out the Scarecrow's unfetchlike powers being Denarian-based, fwiw.)

Theory: Time travelling Harry 25%


(click to show/hide)

.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Elegast on December 04, 2012, 05:12:17 PM
The theories were:


Now the good news: almost all the theories were correct!

Mab wanted to kidnapp Molly


Now we're almost certain it's true, due to this WOJ, and Mab future plan concerning Molly:

Quote
Yeah.  It sure looks that way from here, don't it.

But to correct some minor stuff:  the fetches aren't even /close/ to her strongest servitors.  They're her couriers, harassers, spies and occasional assassins.  Captain Kudzu was a being that was deemed more-or-less sufficient on the badassometer, but nothing to write home about.  The fetches main use, to Mab, isn't as battlefield thugs.  She's got /plenty/ of other things for that.  Another mild correction:  who says Mab /lost/ the battle at Arctis Tor, before Harry and Company arrived?  At the end of the day, the Winter Queen was still in her fortress--but you didn't see anyone standing around assaulting the place, did ya.   Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

(Which goes to show that while Mab may be canny to an inhuman degree, she isn't infallible.  Just way closer to infallible than us.)

See above regarding "the question is *why*?" 

Ask yourself why Mab had Molly brought in.  What chain of events did that set in motion?  What secondary effects came about because of it?  Ultimately, Mab can always go to the Wyld and draw in more muscle to replace fallen thugs.  If worst comes to worst, with just a few "seed" fae, she could rear up enough Changelings to repopulate her cadre within a human generation or two--nothing, to a being thousands of years old. 

As far as she's concerned, everyone and everything is expendable, including herself, when it comes to adhering to her (seemingly irrational and inexplicable) priorities.

(And by the way--don't think Titania is much better.  When push came to shove, she let her own daughter be murdered rather than upset the balance of the Faerie Courts.  At least Mab is up front about it.  Usually.)

Sacrifice her best troops?  Mab would sacrifice every creature *in* Winter, every one she could bring from Summer, and every single mortal on planet Earth if that's what she thought was appropriate.  And she wouldn't even need to add extra sugar to her cup of tea afterwards, much less lose sleep over it.

But no one does cold-blooded like the Queen of Winter.  Mab's been in the business a long time, she's got a balance sheet, and she is *not* going to come out in the red--

--unless, of course, she really *has* stripped a gear, as Lily and Maeve believe.  In which case there's a stark raving bonkers demigoddess whose powers are no longer being held in check by the Escher-esque code of Sidhe behavior.  And that's all kinds of bad.

But hey.  It's probably not that.  I mean, not *everything* that happens can be the absolute worst possible possibility, right?

Jim

So Mab sent the fetches. Then she knows that Harry will send them back to the sender, as it is standard WC procedure:
Quote
Bob’s eyelights brightened even more. “Ooooooo, classic White Council doctrine. When the phages come through, you point them straight at the guy who summoned them. Give him a dose of his own medicine.”

Mab never intended Harry to pour summer fire in the well.

From the same WOJ:
Quote
Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

(Which goes to show that while Mab may be canny to an inhuman degree, she isn't infallible.  Just way closer to infallible than us.)

That gets almost certain, as it forced the troops fighting the Outsiders to come back to Artis Tor, where they were stuck by Maeve Time-dilatation spell. Mab would never allowed that, and it was Maeve working for Nemesis who made it happen.


What the Gatekeeper wanted to prevent?

Quote
“So what you’re saying is that by sending me this warning, he’s indirectly working some other angle completely?”

“I’m saying that the Gatekeeper is usually a hell of a lot more specific about this kind of thing,” Bob said. “All of the Senior Council take black magic seriously. There’s got to be a reason he’s throwing it at you like this. My gut says he’s working from a temporal angle.”

“You don’t have any guts,” I said sourly.

“Your jealousy of my intellect is an ugly, ugly thing, Harry,” Bob said.

I scowled. “Get to the point.”

“Right, boss,” said the skull. “The point is that black magic is very hard to find when you look for it directly. If you try to bring up instances of black magic on your model, like Little Chicago is some kind of evil-juju radar array, it’s probably going to blow up in your face.”

“The Gatekeeper put me on guard against black magic,” I said. “But maybe he’s telling me that so that I can watch for something else. Something black-magic related.”

What could be more important for the Gatekeeper that stopping a warlock? Stopping an infection of course. When you look closely at the Gatekeeper interventions (SK, TC, PG), it's always to stop the infection.

Let me quote Harry when he soulgazes Molly:
Quote
But the last…

The last reflection of Molly wasn’t the girl. Oh, it looked like Molly, externally. But the eyes gave it away. They were flat as a reptile’s, empty. She wore all black, including a black collar, and her hair had been dyed to match. Though she looked like Molly, like a human being, she was neither. She had become something else entirely, something very, very bad.

That was Molly taken by Nemesis. Rashid had foreseen it. So he sends a message to Harry to stop it.

So Knnn was right about the BC, and Sandra Marling was in all probability their agent. I would also point that Sandra's day job was to spread knowledge among mortals of all kind of horrors, which could be quite significant given what we know about the Oblivion war...

Why Mab wanted to capture Molly?

After CD, it becomes far clearer: she wanted a spare Lady. By kidnapping Molly, she saves her from the infection, she gets to imbue her with Winter while she's near the wellspring, she makes sure Harry takes her as her apprentice, bringing Molly within her sphere of influence.

Who fixed LC?

Mab or Time-travelling Harry.

 After CD all the main objections are dead to Mab doing it are dead, especially the wards problem, but Time-traveling Harry is also a strong possibility.

Nemesis attack on Mab

That's the new part, which Neurovore had largely guessed despite the lack of many crucial clues.

Proven Guilty was an attack of Nemesis on Mab.

Nemesis had infected the winter Lady, via Lea. Mab would suspect it in short order, as she had done with Lea. It was time to use Maeve to attack Mab. The objective of the attack was to force Mab to pull her troops from the borders.

Let us review how it was done.

First came the attack on Artis Tor. It had several objectives: freeing Lea (who was indeed infected as we had predicted), capturing the athame, and first and foremost forcing Mab to bring her troops back. It seemingly failed: the attack was defeated, and Mab didn't bring anyone in. However, in the long run it would force Mab to reinforce her inner guard, and it was only a feint for the real attack.

Harry was the real attack on Artis Tor.

Yes.  ;D

The first one was doomed from the beginning, Harry, Nemesis's cat's paw was the real danger. Maeve wanted to bring the troops far from the border to help Nemesis, and Lily was doing the same thing in order to harm the Reds (she didn't know about Mab's true purpose).

Quote
Fix blinked at Lily. “You’re working with Maeve?”

“She couldn’t have altered the flow of time at the heart of Winter,” I said quietly. “Only one of the Winter Queens could do that.”

Fix blinked at Lily as if I hadn’t spoken. “Maeve’s working with you?”

Lily nodded. “Like us, she fears Mab’s recent madness.” She turned back to me. “I provided you with power enough to threaten the wellspring, in the hope that you would draw some portion of Winter back into its own demesnes. Once that was done, Maeve altered the passage of time relative to the mortal realms.”


Nemesis plan was to give Harry some summer fire, to let him attack the wellspring. But to achieve such a level of micro-management, he needed an agent. Let me quote the scene where Harry attacks the wellspring:
Quote
The Scarecrow let out an ear-splitting trilling chirp, like a summer locust on steroids, and it bounded to one side in an effort to keep the mounded ice of the fountain between us. I’d already seen how fast a fetch could move, and didn’t bother with a snap shot. Instead, I let it distance itself from Molly and Charity, until it reached cover behind the fountain’s ice and stopped moving.

Then I blew two-thirds of that dome away in a single blast of light, thunder, and fire.

See? The scarecrow stays right behind the spring, and present himself as the perfect target for Harry's summer fire. The Scarecrow was infected and Neurovore was right!

 
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Elegast on December 04, 2012, 05:12:37 PM
Nemesis wins

PG was a victory for Nemesis. He managed to remove all the forces of Winter from the borders, leading to massive infiltrations of Outsiders.

Maeve at Splattercon

There is no doubt now that Maeve was calling the shots in the Maeve/Lily duo.

I still believe she was sent by Mab in Chicago to make sure that Harry really went to Artis Tor. She obeyed the order, as Nemesis had planned to use Harry against Mab.

Raith

Was infected, and a cover for Mab, he was there to hide Mab's manipulation (e.g. he could have been the one who called the fetches (a Wampire in a location tied to its nature) to create fear, so poor Mab is innocent)

Glau

Glau was probably twice a traitor: infected, he was working with Mab too. Mab sends Scarecrow to kill him, Nemesis sacrifices a low level agent.

The grey Chrysler

Ace tried and failed.

Sandra Marling

Quote from: Proven Guilty
“Where do you know her from?” I asked. “Not church, I guess.”
Molly looked at me obliquely for a second and then said, “She’s a part-time volunteer at one of the shelters where I’m doing community service.

Marling could be an employee of House Malvora too. Even a Malvora cub. We know the Raiths own pornography studios, I would not be surprised that the Malvoras own horror theaters, conventions, and so on...

Some names:
Lara
Elisa
Nathalia
Sandra

The problem is that Jim already has a bias towards M and A: Mavra, Mab, Madrigal, Madeline, Marlings, Marcone, Margaret, Malory,Mac, Malcome, Maeve, Madge, Marion, Marco, Malone, Amanda *2, Mouse ...

EDIT: Raith == Romary
         Malvora =?= Marlings

Proximity in both cases.

Time travel Harry

Possible but unnecessary for the moment.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Elegast on December 04, 2012, 05:12:55 PM
And just for fun, the whole list of PG mysteries with their solution:

Mysteries



Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Serack on December 04, 2012, 05:59:58 PM
I've added WoJ quote code to your first 2 posts.  You might still be messing with reply 2 (post 3) so I'm not going to mess with it yet, besides the WoJ there is the same one, so if you wanted the code is already available.

Your first post is on the edge when it comes to hitting the 20k character limit, and I had to remove the WoJ reference link ahead of the last WoJ quote to get back within toleance, but it's now built into the quote code so nothing lost.

You might take the time later to edit this quote code into your origional posts these are copied from.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Elegast on December 04, 2012, 06:13:07 PM
I've added WoJ quote code to your first 2 posts.  You might still be messing with reply 2 (post 3) so I'm not going to mess with it yet, besides the WoJ there is the same one, so if you wanted the code is already available.

Your first post is on the edge when it comes to hitting the 20k character limit, and I had to remove the WoJ reference link ahead of the last WoJ quote to get back within toleance, but it's now built into the quote code so nothing lost.

You might take the time later to edit this quote code into your origional posts these are copied from.

Thx. I think I'll stop there for today. I'll re-read later to clarify, improve grammar/spelling/logic/formatting.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Second Aristh on December 04, 2012, 06:46:34 PM
Impressive Elegast, it lays out and answers just about everything from PG
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Elegast on December 04, 2012, 06:58:58 PM
Impressive Elegast, it lays out and answers just about everything from PG

As Knnn said yesterday, knowing that Nemesis is Mab's enemy makes everything clearer. We were watching a fight where one of the fighter was invisible. So it was really hard to make sense of Mab's action.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Serack on December 04, 2012, 07:09:24 PM
As Knnn said yesterday, knowing that Nemesis is Mab's enemy makes everything clearer. We were watching a fight where one of the fighter was invisible. So it was really hard to make sense of Mab's action.

Nemesis is still rather enigmatic though.

Is the piece of Nemesis in all infected beings completely in tune with (communicating with) all the others making for perfect cordination?  What is necessary for the infection to spread? 

Something tells me that Nemesis's control over a being is more effective if it remains subtle, or it can get more use out of said being if the being still retains its own identity.  This closely parallels my understanding of Denarian's relationships with their hosts, and is based off of our experiences with Cat Sith.  It appears that Cat Sith was not wholy a willing participant in nemesis's plans and as such was not as much of a bad ass.  However, Maeve and other Nemesis operatives were truely ambitious and acting out these ambitions in a way that segued with Nemesis's plans and thus were more effective operatives... 
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: knnn on December 04, 2012, 07:35:44 PM
Some thoughts:

1) Yet again, Elegast -- you've come up with amazing explanation for everything.  Kudos

2) Nevertheless, I'm not as happy with this one, as it totally comes off as a big win for Nemesis.  As a Mab fan, I would have preferred for this to be at least a draw. On the other hand, I suppose this makes Mab success in SmF even more awesome...

3) One weak point of the theory seems to be the lack of a reason for the false attack on AT.  It seems like Mab herself set in motion the chain of events that would bring Harry to shoot fire into the Well.  As such, the first attack is little more than a diversion -- and one easily defeated.

4) Also, Mab winking at Harry seems a little incongruous given that she just suffered a major defeat.  Add to that the WoJ that doesn't scan to me as Mab suffering a defeat...   ...still, you have everything lined up nicely.  I'm going to have to think about this a bit more.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: knnn on December 04, 2012, 07:43:07 PM
Something tells me that Nemesis's control over a being is more effective if it remains subtle, or it can get more use out of said being if the being still retains its own identity.

^this^

Consider that we're dealing with beings who are playing a chess game across the universe, and that given the resources available to both sides brute-force is almost never going to work.  Also, since both are neigh-infallible predicting machines, each will be continually shutting down the other's gambits, ending each round in a stalemate.  The only way one of them can really get an advantage is by playing a game where not all the variables can be predicted --- by either side.

In practice what this means is that both sides are playing with mortal pawns while only subtly using their influence (which would be countered by the other side), and taking big chances (e.g. risking the Archive) in the hopes the their limited vision will triumph. 

Interesting enough, one can argue that the fact that mortals have free will is the key point of the battle -- in a sense, those minor decisions are the only ones that are unpredictable by both Mab and Nemesis, and so success or failure of their eternal conflict hinges precisely on that.

-- This might even serve to explain why Mab smiles every time Harry stands up to her.  The fact that he isn't bowing down to her desires means that he still is unpredictable to an extent -- he is still useful as a pawn.

Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Elegast on December 04, 2012, 07:47:43 PM
Some thoughts:

1) Yet again, Elegast -- you've come up with amazing explanation for everything.  Kudos

2) Nevertheless, I'm not as happy with this one, as it totally comes off as a big win for Nemesis.  As a Mab fan, I would have preferred for this to be at least a draw. On the other hand, I suppose this makes Mab success in SmF even more awesome...

3) One weak point of the theory seems to be the lack the reason for the false attack on AT.  It seems like Mab herself set in motion the chain of events that would bring Harry to shoot fire into the Well.  As such, the first attack is little more than a diversion -- and one easily defeated.

4) Also, Mab winking at Harry seems a little incongruous given that she just suffered a major defeat.  Add to that the WoJ that doesn't scan to me as Mab suffering a defeat...   ...still, you have everything lined up nicely.  I'm going to have to think about this a bit more.

1) Thx.

2) Mab can't win them all, or there would be no BAT.

3) You're right. The Arctis Tor attack is the weakest link, as my explanation is not really convincing. I have a second possibility: Nemesis killed the guard of Arctis Tor to let Harry survive the attack. Had he not, the trolls would have flattened Harry in 3 s, so no chase after Harry

4) I don't really know what to think of the wink.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Elegast on December 04, 2012, 07:55:06 PM
Add to that the WoJ that doesn't scan to me as Mab suffering a defeat...   

Quote from: WOJ
who says Mab /lost/ the battle at Arctis Tor, before Harry and Company arrived?

 ;D
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: knnn on December 04, 2012, 08:04:29 PM
;D

Yes, it  occurred to me that the WoJ could be read that way...

As I said, I'm going to have to think about this a bit, but for now my working theory is that Mab was entirely getting her way, at least until Harry poured Summer Fire.

So:
1) Mab rescues Molly from Nemesis.
2) Thwarts the first attack.
3) **not sure about Scarecrow

-- Harry does what he does best

4) Nemesis pulls off a last minute upset by having Maeve slow time.  This outs Maeve (note that this possibly happens after the wink, so Mab might well still be feeling smug), but the damage is done.

Note:
- An interesting thing would be to look back at Jim's CIA response to Neuro's original post in light of our current theories.  It might be that there is some cryptic phrase in there that might suddenly click.

- Come to think of it, there was also that WoJ about "exactly two things correct" regarding demonreach.  We might have better intelligence about that one.

Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Serack on December 04, 2012, 08:24:27 PM
^this^

Consider that we're dealing with beings who are playing a chess game across the universe, and that given the resources available to both sides brute-force is almost never going to work.  Also, since both are neigh-infallible predicting machines, each will be continually shutting down the other's gambits, ending each round in a stalemate.  The only way one of them can really get an advantage is by playing a game where not all the variables can be predicted --- by either side.

In practice what this means is that both sides are playing with mortal pawns while only subtly using their influence (which would be countered by the other side), and taking big chances (e.g. risking the Archive) in the hopes the their limited vision will triumph. 

Interesting enough, one can argue that the fact that mortals have free will is the key point of the battle -- in a sense, those minor decisions are the only ones that are unpredictable by both Mab and Nemesis, and so success or failure of their eternal conflict hinges precisely on that.

-- This might even serve to explain why Mab smiles every time Harry stands up to her.  The fact that he isn't bowing down to her desires means that he still is unpredictable to an extent -- he is still useful as a pawn.

I like.  I like a lot.  Except Harry is no pawn, he's a KNIGHT!

This reallllly meshes with this WoJ btw:

Quote from: WoJ
There is a rather long discussion as to what constitutes free will as an element in the back end of this book (Ghost Story).  Is what is presented and discussed as a concept, your own philosophy?  How did that come about, the idea that free will is making your choices based upon truth.
Right, and in the Dresden Files universe it's a vital component.  It's what devides mortals, human beings, from everybody else.  Is that we're the ones that have elements of both good and evil inside us, we're the ones who get to chose what to do.  And because that's who we are, we make the world around us through those choices.  The forces of the universe, these cosmic forces are always ballanced against one another, and we're the ones who can tilt that see-saw one way or another with our actions.  I think that is largely true in real life, but it is certainly a very fun, dramatic use of the concept of free will for writing with.  It's very important in general, and that's why Harry, as he's gotten more mature, he's striven so much harder to make sure that other people have a choice, you know, he's not trying to make choices for people any more, he's trying to make sure that they know what's going on, and can make an informed choice.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Elegast on December 04, 2012, 08:27:06 PM

- An interesting thing would be to look back at Jim's CIA response to Neuro's original post in light of our current theories.  It might be that there is some cryptic phrase in there that might suddenly click.

- Come to think of it, there was also that WoJ about "exactly two things correct" regarding demonreach.  We might have better intelligence about that one.

Quote from: Neurovore
There is also the other element of how Harry got into Arctis Tor to consider in each case.  There's nothing defending Arctis Tor but some fetches, because something, armed with Hellfire, took out a small army of goblins and a pack of trolls. 

(Given that Harry knows Hellfire, I think we can rule out the Scarecrow's unfetchlike powers being Denarian-based, fwiw.)

This could have been a serious attack that failed, in which case, what stopped it ?  Do we think the fetches were able to stop a Denarian where all those goblins could not ? I don't, myself, and there's nobody else around Arctis Tor to have stopped them.  And furthermore, if it's an independent hostile attack, the timing is really excessively convenient to benefit Harry's mission.

The other option here is it was an attack that was meant to fail.  That Namshiel (or whoever it was) is working there, directly or indirectly, in the interests of what Mab wants by opening that hole in her defences for Harry and company to get through.

The old theory that the first attack was just a way to let Harry go thought the defenses.

Quote
Demonreach may not be friendly to humans but he is not violent to others. All the animals on the Island are welcome and make their homes there. While he may have a dark nature, nothing on the Island is corrupt or foul.
That was the wrong half.

Concerning the wink, I was thinking of that WOJ:
Quote from: WOJ
Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

Maybe Mab thought she could send them back in a few moments, so she had won. And then Meave unleashed her time manipulation spell, and she finally understood Nemesis's plan...
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Second Aristh on December 04, 2012, 10:03:36 PM
Maybe I'm just misunderstanding, but I have a couple of questions Elegast

What about something like this scenario?


Basically, PG follows pretty much what Mab wanted to happen, but she gets surprised by the attack on Arctis Tor.  Mab loses a bit of control of the situation, but thinks things are going to work out anyway in the end.  At the last moment, Nemesis outplays Mab and gets guards off the Outer Gates for a time.  Eventually, Mab figures out who betrayed her and is furious.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: THE_ANGRY_GAMER on December 04, 2012, 10:06:38 PM
Molly is being prepared as a contingency - specifically, to replace Lily. Mab even says she'd have preferred it if Molly had gone Summer. In chess, you have to think three moves ahead and when you're playing the game that Mab and Nemesis are playing you have to be thinking fa, far further.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Elegast on December 05, 2012, 03:34:00 AM
Maybe I'm just misunderstanding, but I have a couple of questions Elegast
  • It doesn't make sense for Mab to work so hard to get an extra candidate for Winter Lady if she already has Sarissa and doesn't know about Maeve being taken.
  • Who exactly is the Eldest Fetch working for?

About the Eldest Fetch: he made Harry attack the well. So his loyalty depends on Mab's intention: did she wanted Harry to pour summer fire in the Winter well? If yes, then Eldest was a loyal minion. If no, then he was an infected traitor working for Nemesis.

Concerning Molly:  That part is not certain. Maeve was about to reveal herself in PG: she was telling everyone Mab was mad. The moment Mab heard of those rumors, she knows Maeve is infected. However, did Mab knew of Maeve's infection before PG? I think not. I believe Mab sent her to Chigaco to free the Way for Molly in Pell's theater, so she was still trusting her daughter.
      So, if she did not know about Maeve, why did she 'work so hard'?  We have some answers from in CD: Molly could have several uses: as a Summer Lady, as Winter Lady, or for 'another purpose'. Anyway the "work so hard" is overrated, PG was meant to be a minor operation for Mab: a few fetches for a week and her Lady for a day were all what was necessary to execute the plan.
     Then Nemesis decided to subvert it, and it went FUBAR.

Mab sends a message through the Gatekeeper to Harry to look out for dark magic (building foundations for Molly's apprenticeship)[/li][/list]

Possible but unnecessary: the Gatekeeper has some limited precog, that's the explanation given in the book by Bob, so I'll stay with the simplest explanation. And Harry would have tried to save Molly/stop murders of civilians anyway.

Quote
Black Council operatives including a Denarian attack Arctis Tor, insulting Mab's pride and clearing out extra guards, instead of pressing further in, the attackers retreat before Mab steps in personally.

Possible.

Quote
Mab originally was going to bring Molly back, but Harry and company are coming to rescue her anyway so Mab "leaves".

       That's an interesting possibility. However, the fetches's victims show that bringing Harry was in the plan from the beginning: the attack on Pell, the first one, was not random: it was to free the the theater where there was a Way to Artis Tor.
       The last set of fetches was sent by Mab according to WOJ:
Quote
Ask yourself why Mab had Molly brought in.

So Mab probably sent the first ones too. She wanted Molly to become Harry's apprentice and to protect her from the WC, so it was logical to bring him in.

       Still, I may be wrong, and the first fetches may have been working for Maeve.

Quote
  • In the fight, the Scarecrow reveals that Nemesis has infected him (by Maeve in Chicago), but Harry uses Summer fire to defeat him anyway.  Mab is smug about her underdog winning the fight.  To Mab, damaging the Wellspring is unfortunate, but she can immediately send her troops back.
  • Passage of time is altered in Arctis Tor, leaving the Gates undefended for too long.  Maeve is the only possible culprit, and Mab realizes that she has been infected, hurting her and causing her fury.

Strong possibility.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Second Aristh on December 05, 2012, 04:13:35 AM
Interesting.  I'm still puzzling through motivations and implications, but I think you are correct.

You're right about the Eldest Fetch.  We won't know if he was infected until we know if Mab intended for the Wellspring to get damaged.  So, if Mab sent all of the fetches, who was the target for the attack after Pell?  The attack when Maeve casts the ward and the myrrk sticks out as wanton bloodshed.  It feels inefficient for a Mab order.

Also for the Pell attack to secure the Way to Arctis Tor, the fetches needed the Way to get Molly to (and possibly back from) the Wellspring anyway.  It didn't have to be specifically for Harry.  I could see Maeve taking advantage of an open door by sending Harry to try to keep her mother off balance.

Is there another instance where time-travel is linked to the Gatekeeper?  I remember he waited for Michael in Molly's trial and did something with his eye in TC on the dock, but not any other ones off the top of my head.  Mab would see Rashid enough for her to send a message certainly.  I'll go with time travel for now, but if we don't get more evidence I might reconsider later on.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Elegast on December 05, 2012, 04:27:17 AM
Quote
You're right about the Eldest Fetch.  We won't know if he was infected until we know if Mab intended for the Wellspring to get damaged.  So, if Mab sent all of the fetches, who was the target for the attack after Pell?  The attack when Maeve casts the ward and the myrrk sticks out as wanton bloodshed.  It feels inefficient for a Mab order.

The attack n°2 was to make Harry send back the fectches. Harry was expecting the summoner to die, so he wouldn't have cast the redirection spell unless the fetches had already killed some civilians.

Quote
Also for the Pell attack to secure the Way to Arctis Tor, the fetches needed the Way to get Molly to (and possibly back from) the Wellspring anyway.  It didn't have to be specifically for Harry.  I could see Maeve taking advantage of an open door by sending Harry to try to keep her mother off balance.

Possible.

Quote
Is there another instance where time-travel is linked to the Gatekeeper?  I remember he waited for Michael in Molly's trial and did something with his eye in TC on the dock, but not any other ones off the top of my head.  Mab would see Rashid enough for her to send a message certainly.  I'll go with time travel for now, but if we don't get more evidence I might reconsider later on.

In Summer Knight, he can see some events from afar, in TC he can predict the future of the confrontation between Harry and the wardens.

Quote from: Summer Knight
"Looking for you," he said.

"You've been watching?"

He shook his head. "Call it listening. But I have had glimpses of you. And matters are worsening in Chicago."

"Stars and stones," I muttered and picked up my boots. "I don't have time to chat."

The Gatekeeper put a gloved hand on my arm. "But you do," he said. "My vision is limited, but I know that you have accomplished your mission for the Winter Queen. She will keep her end of the bargain, grant us safe passage through her realm. So far as the Council is concerned, that will be enough. You would be safe."
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: knnn on December 13, 2012, 03:06:16 PM
I just had a random thought on PG time travel, but didn't know where better to put it:

1) Harry always seems to have company/friends he relies on to do the job.  It gives him the ability to be "more", and from an author perspective, gives us great dialogue.

2) If there is a book that is seriously about time travel, then Harry cannot bring too many of his friends -- the more he brings, the harder it will be to keep things quiet and avoid paradox.

3) What if he just brings Molly?  Does the inclusion of a Winter Lady Molly working behind the scenes (veiled, etc.) work for PG?

...Is waiting for a book named "Veil Time".   ;)
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Ms Duck on December 13, 2012, 03:39:40 PM
One point: i wouldnt trust what Mab says about why she took Molly, if i were you. man was being elusive again. shes very good at not quite answering the question you ask.

the idea that Mab took up Molly because Harry trusted her has a major hole- Mab started the operation before Harry trusted her. ergo, shes either not telling the entire truth or she can see the future.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Paladino on December 13, 2012, 03:43:49 PM
About the Eldest Fetch: he made Harry attack the well. So his loyalty depends on Mab's intention: did she wanted Harry to pour summer fire in the Winter well? If yes, then Eldest was a loyal minion. If no, then he was an infected traitor working for Nemesis.

I find entirely plausible that Mab wanted Harry to hit the winter well, so his power over outsider magic would weaken nemesis hold on Lea, allowing Mab the chance she need to heal her, or just to speed things up. She just didn't plan for him to use Summer Fire.


One point: i wouldnt trust what Mab says about why she took Molly, if i were you. man was being elusive again. shes very good at not quite answering the question you ask.

the idea that Mab took up Molly because Harry trusted her has a major hole- Mab started the operation before Harry trusted her. ergo, shes either not telling the entire truth or she can see the future.

I think Mab have many plans going at the same time. That she saw potential on Molly, or just noticed Sandra Marling (BC/Nemesis) interest on her and wanted to know twart them and to know why they were interested in the first place. So she strikes to bunnies with one stone in kidnapping Molly, get to check her and bring Harry to Artic Tor.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh on December 14, 2012, 08:38:31 PM
And in working my way back through CD-related posts, I just now found this, and gosh, I feel all vindicated.

There is one point I want to question, though; this discussion seems to be operating on the basis that the withdrawal of winter forces to protect the Wellspring affected the forces at the Outer Gates as well as those on the border with Summer.  Have we any firm textual basis for that, or is it an assumption ?

Alternatively, if it did turn out to be the case that forces were withdrawn from the Outer gates, and operating on the presumption that Lily can have been deceived by Maeve such that any information from Lily is suspect, is it workable that that withdrawal was what allowed Nemesis in, and everything previous to PG is still explainable in pre-Nemesis terms ?  (Aurora would seem to be the hardest case to find an alternate explanation for.)

Some part of my brain wants to think of Nemesis along with HWWB and Sharkface as Mac's three.

(I still don't work for the CIA, and I'm still totally going to ask Jim to let me use that quote on the cover if I ever sell any fiction.)
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Arjan on December 14, 2012, 08:52:59 PM
One point: i wouldnt trust what Mab says about why she took Molly, if i were you. man was being elusive again. shes very good at not quite answering the question you ask.

the idea that Mab took up Molly because Harry trusted her has a major hole- Mab started the operation before Harry trusted her. ergo, shes either not telling the entire truth or she can see the future.
Not really. She usually does not tell all her reasons only those she thinks are enough to convince the listener. She prepared Molly for something but it was a long therm project taking years and Harry trusting Molly was an important confirmation. These plans can be adapted on the fly all the time. She saw the possibilities from the start but tyhe confirmation is important.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: ntribley on December 14, 2012, 09:14:12 PM
These theories make a of sense. One of the things that always bothered me about the Arctis Tor scenario was that we were really not given any good reason in the book as to why the Fetches brought Molly to Arctis Tor in the first place. The only reason given was that in her they would really be able to chow down on a fear feast, but the truth was, Molly came through that incident apparently unscathed. Sure, she found out that she'd broken one of the Laws of Magic, was nearly beheaded, became Harry's apprentice, and found she had to live with her family and finish high school. But she certainly doesn't exhibit the signs that her psyche had been shredded by the fetches. Far from it. So what were they doing with her the whole time they held her in Arctis Tor? Doesn't look like they were doing much of anything.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Radhil on December 14, 2012, 09:24:58 PM
Quote
But she certainly doesn't exhibit the signs that her psyche had been shredded by the fetches. Far from it. So what were they doing with her the whole time they held her in Arctis Tor? Doesn't look like they were doing much of anything.

Maybe they were chewing their food slowly?  Molly's first reaction to being free was collapsing in exhaustion in Charity's arms and chanting "Mama."  And her second reaction was to wake up and be afraid of her family's reaction and try to sneak off.  Maybe her psyche wasn't digested to the point of coma, but the girl went through a lot.

Also, if Mab wanted her for any reason beyond Harry-bait, it'd give them a much bigger reason to softball her.

I'm still trying to read through and re-org my own thoughts on PG in light of new revelations, I'll try to be back to comment more later.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: DFJunkie on December 14, 2012, 09:26:05 PM
"Mab fixed little Chicago" is practically a slam dunk now that we know Faeries can cross thresholds if they have a benevolent purpose.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Elegast on December 14, 2012, 09:49:35 PM
There is one point I want to question, though; this discussion seems to be operating on the basis that the withdrawal of winter forces to protect the Wellspring affected the forces at the Outer Gates as well as those on the border with Summer.  Have we any firm textual basis for that, or is it an assumption ?

Assumption. It's based on Lea saying 'all of winter', and this WOJ which is quite explicite:
Quote
Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Elegast on December 14, 2012, 09:50:50 PM
"Mab fixed little Chicago" is practically a slam dunk now that we know Faeries can cross thresholds if they have a benevolent purpose.

It's really credible. But Time Travel Harry is really strong too.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh on December 14, 2012, 09:56:18 PM
The only reason given was that in her they would really be able to chow down on a fear feast, but the truth was, Molly came through that incident apparently unscathed. Sure, she found out that she'd broken one of the Laws of Magic, was nearly beheaded, became Harry's apprentice, and found she had to live with her family and finish high school. But she certainly doesn't exhibit the signs that her psyche had been shredded by the fetches. Far from it. So what were they doing with her the whole time they held her in Arctis Tor? Doesn't look like they were doing much of anything.

Examining her really carefully to get the best info for later influencing/manipulation of her to proceed, perhaps ?
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: madness on April 02, 2013, 02:19:11 AM
Nemesis is still rather enigmatic though.

Is the piece of Nemesis in all infected beings completely in tune with (communicating with) all the others making for perfect cordination?  What is necessary for the infection to spread? 

Something tells me that Nemesis's control over a being is more effective if it remains subtle, or it can get more use out of said being if the being still retains its own identity.  This closely parallels my understanding of Denarian's relationships with their hosts, and is based off of our experiences with Cat Sith.  It appears that Cat Sith was not wholy a willing participant in nemesis's plans and as such was not as much of a bad ass.  However, Maeve and other Nemesis operatives were truely ambitious and acting out these ambitions in a way that segued with Nemesis's plans and thus were more effective operatives...

We see this with mind control via magic and with vampire mind control as well so it would make sense for any other forms of mind control to follow similar rules and patterns.

The more that you screw with a mind the more likely that mind is to begin breaking down and operating less effectively.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: madness on April 02, 2013, 02:39:12 AM
Assumption. It's based on Lea saying 'all of winter', and this WOJ which is quite explicite:

This could easily be a situation where Jim was forced to lie or fudge the truth in order to avoid a huge spoiler.

The 40,000 troops protecting the heart of winter could easily be what he was referencing at that point since only Jim himself knew about the troops at the Outer Gates.

Even after Cold Days I had never considered the possibility that the troops at the Outer Gates had left their posts.  It just seems so stupid and foolish that I can't imagine that it was possible.

If Mab would sacrifice all of Winter in order to protect the Outer Gates then how would the forces at the Outer Gates possibly justify leaving to defend Arctis Tor unless Mab specifically ordered it?

I have a feeling that the forces out there would stay at their posts while both the mortal world and Faerie fell into ruins if it came to that.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Zaphodess on April 02, 2013, 11:15:50 AM
Examining her really carefully to get the best info for later influencing/manipulation of her to proceed, perhaps ?
Or check her out for a Nemesis infection. Maybe she usually sends her Knight to deal with infected mortals, but as Lloyd Slate was out of it at the time, she had to find another way to stop a further spread of the infection.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: dpara on April 02, 2013, 02:06:46 PM
Damn Proven Guilty again ;), so some theories for questions I consider mostly unsatisfactory answered:

How did Molly ultimately get to Mabs attention?

Why take Molly to Arctis Tor?
Who was at the attack?
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Mira on April 02, 2013, 03:14:34 PM

  Somehow I doubt that someone faked hellfire.  What I think is Mab is a big player in the WG's over all plan.  I think Uriel is the liaison officer between her and Him, I think Harry's future was mapped out for him from the moment he was conceived.. Adjustments made along the way of course to accommodate his right of free will to make good and bad choices, but the general currents of his life have been pushing him to where he is at, and what he is a weapon in the coming war.  I am willing to bet the same has been true for Molly.  Born of two devote parents, one a Holy Knight plus magical talent make her perfect for the role she is about to take...   Though it might not be quite so clear what was mapped out for her like Harry, Mab made sure this pawn was made ready to enter the game when needed. 
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: KrelianZG on April 02, 2013, 03:17:30 PM
There's no way that someone could "fake" Hellfire to a being such as Mab. Probably even Harry. Also, if you're powerful enough to simulate Hellfire, you don't need minions to assault Arctis Tor to begin with, IMO.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Arjan on April 02, 2013, 05:14:50 PM
There's no way that someone could "fake" Hellfire to a being such as Mab. Probably even Harry. Also, if you're powerful enough to simulate Hellfire, you don't need minions to assault Arctis Tor to begin with, IMO.
The powerful always use minions even if they can just solve the problem by pointing a finger. For some reason using minions is as it should be.  :)
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: KrelianZG on April 02, 2013, 05:17:34 PM
The powerful always use minions even if they can just solve the problem by pointing a finger. For some reason using minions is as it should be.  :)

Well, I agree that something used "minions" there. But I do think Namshiel was the one who used Hellfire, and likely thought he was a valued member of the team at the time. "Minion" is a relative term, after all.
Title: Re: [CD spoilers] Proven Guilty
Post by: Serack on April 08, 2014, 10:11:45 PM
This:

What, exactly, were the outsiders doing Dead Beat that took so many of Winter's Forces that they didn't intercept the Red Court when they were chasing the white council?

They were denying Mab her command structure. During Dead Beat, Lea was on ice due to her N-fection (I like that, btw) and the Winter Knight was busy being tortured. Mab has two fronts to defend: Winter territory, and the Gates. Without Lea (WoJ is that Lea acts as Mab's regent, and they switch off roles), Mab would have to call on Maeve to handle one of the fronts. I'm sure the Red Court running around in Winter was just an "accident" due to Maeve being too "distracted" performing her normal duties atop of her extra responsibilites.

So, what can Mab do, after finding two traitors high in her command structure, and with a less-than-competent second in command? She places everyone on high alert to guard her borders (something even Maeve can't "mess up"), and while the realm is in lockdown, goes on a traitor hunt (as we see in PG).