Hmm, so if Marcone was the base level prize and Ivy was just a possibility, it could jive. It still represents a metric f*ckton of wasted resources on a vague possibility, given that it took Lucifer Himself to fuel the huge Circles that were only needed for Ivy, a cost equivalent to having to deal with a Soul fire-empowered Dresden there-after.
That was how I took it, anyway. They involved Lucifer for the sure grab of Marcone, a pretty good shot at involving Harry whether through his relationships with SI or Mab, and decent odds that requesting an arbitrator would be the only play available to him.
It's also important that as far as Nic's scheming goes as of SmF, he was still under the impression Lasciel's shadow was slowly working on getting Harry to fully take up the coin. For one thing, that means he couldn't have guessed Uriel would take the other side's freebie to balance Lucifer's action by granting Harry soulfire, since he thought Harry was still drawing on hellfire. Secondly, Nic very well might have been almost as happy with putting enough pressure on Harry that he had to fully give in to Lasciel in order to survive confronting her fellows as with actually getting Ivy. I doubt he would have shared with Tessa that he'd be happy to see the plan end up netting a nascent Starborn instead of the Archive, but if Lash had stayed on mission for them, it might actually have been a reachable possibility (supported by the fact that he tried to capture Harry after everything else went pear-shaped for them).
The question of Harry's eligibility for soulfire if Lash had still been there also prompts an interesting what-if. Given that Harry's access to hellfire had been via Lash' connection back to Lasciel, what would have happened if she'd survived turning on her originator instead of immediately sacrificing herself? I gather she'd lose the connection to continue giving Harry hellfire, but since soulfire comes from the caster anyway, could she granted Harry that ability? (I always figured Uriel using that as his balancing action was equivalent in acting at all, rather than energy expended) Or would Lash have been left as 'just' a cosmic storehouse of knowledge, without any hard power-ups to offer?