I think Dresden's conception and upbringing is far darker and far more intentional and engineered by multiple parties than this theory suggests. For example, I think the bargain was made before Dresden was conceived; if Maggie, Sr. was pregnant with a human child, why would she then seek to bargain with the fae for protection of Dresden instead of going to her own father, Senior Counsel member and the Black Staff? I believe Butcher has been spreading crumbs while misdirecting us both with Dresden as unreliable/in denial narrator and with his WOJ. I don't think that's a bad thing nor do I mean to suggest that Butcher should have done otherwise; it's just the path that Butcher has essentially had to take to avoid the story being unsurprising as its end builds, given the years/decades that he knew would be spent writing and releasing the overarching story.
But all will be revealed eventually, I suppose. I just hope I'm around to read the last book of the final trilogy.
I think Mab -- likely mostly via her Handmaiden -- led Maggie gently to the idea of a Starbabe.
I think Maggie's original idea was a starborn wizard with enough mojo to get the White Council to agree to some of her "modern" revisions towards equality/etc.
Not sure when she moved from that plan; but she kinda gave up on the sweetness-and-light version when she threw in with Raith Père & Duchess Arianna (who I think were Black Council (or shills for them)): I think it was a Starbabe plan she pitched to Eb, when Arianna twigged to the familial fight dynamic.
Whatever her scheme, at that point, she was firmly-allied in said scheme with 2 of the 3 Vampire Courts, and that's pretty fucking
DARK.
AFAIK we have zero evidence of any WhiteCouncil starbabe plans, but I've gotta suspect they had ideas, most likely around "let the baddies get the babe born, then we'll swoop in to collect the child" &c.
I think Maggie wouldn't go to Eb because she had so much suspicion / distrust of the White Council (possibly even sure knowledge, but no actionable evidence, of black-magic or similar corruption) and knew Eb was solidly pro-WC.
But Mab, and Lea ...
The
Winter agenda was a Starborn Winterknight, free from White Council limits & constraints.
They led Maggie down the Starborn garden-path -- probably a decades-long plan: a hint here, an allusion there, a demure smirking not-quite-denial, etc -- then abandoned her to Black Council + Vamps, isolating her from her only viable allies (the WC). Somehow they lured her to escape (I suspect Lea, who's specifically a demigoddess of "inspiration" & muses) under cover of Faerie Glamour (remember how Morgan was un-trackable to everything the White Council could do?), "proving" the Faerie alliance to be invaluable.
Then when Margaret got pregnant with a likely Starbabe, they induced her to bargain for that protection to go to her child (automatically insta-killing Maggie, when the "cannot track/target" Glamour left her, and Raith's entropy-curse found its target)... exactly as the Faeries intended.
Then they arranged for Malcolm's death, too -- he died, iirc, with a gentle smile on his face... almost as if some faerie had englamoured herself to seem like Margaret LeFey (and Mab has proved herself particularly adept at pretending to be a mortal) -- and (once more under faerie-unfindable Glamour) squirreled Harry away to the orphanage (remember: Lea was a semi-regular visitor).
Then they arranged Justin to adopt Harry: harsh (wintery) Justin (to give Harry his White-Council style training); I bet they charged DuMorne a pretty penny, to reveal a Starborn Wizard to him! Even if it was exactly their plan all along.
I put
all of that on Mab/Lea conniving.