The Dresden Files > DF Spoilers
We gotta talk about Margaret LeFay
Mira:
--- Quote from: g33k on August 02, 2024, 11:53:10 PM ---Also, I think Nic & Anduriel are entirely capable of making a "safety" play & leaving Harry with an impression they'd like him to have, on the outside chance he survives.
They know there are KotC's in the field against them, so they know their "best-laid plans" may still not be good enough.
--- End quote ---
Not to mention at this point Harry has no clue that unless very special precautions are taken Andriel can listen in to anything and everything he says to anyone. So in this case in particular, Nic has full advantage over Harry.
LordDresden2:
--- Quote from: g33k on August 02, 2024, 11:53:10 PM ---Also, I think Nic & Anduriel are entirely capable of making a "safety" play & leaving Harry with an impression they'd like him to have, on the outside chance he survives.
They know there are KotC's in the field against them, so they know their "best-laid plans" may still not be good enough.
--- End quote ---
Yeah, but that also fails the Ockham's Razor test. Yeah, that could be what's going on, but it's not the simplest explanation that fits the data. The whole conversation could be Nicodemus playing 7 dimensional chess. We know Nicodemus does sometimes play 7-d chess, so to speak.
But the simpler explanation is that he was prepared to offer Harry a Coin, because a corrupted Harry could be useful, but he's also smart enough to know Harry would be a handful to control, so he makes the offer but is prepared to just kill him otherwise. That fits the scene, fits the data, and requires fewer assumptions.
Likewise, we can build all sorts of scenarios where Margaret really wasn't so bad, and we can make them fit the available data...but they're never the simplest fit. The simplest fit for the available data is that Margaret started out as a misguided, short-sighted idealist, made friends and enemies along the way, and at some point became much, much worse, and then found redemption and salvation near the end of her life, and was then murdered by Lord Raith.
LordDresden2:
On the subject of Margaret, it occured to me today to wonder about something: did she know Kemmler?
She could have. The Council iced Kemmler in 1961. We don't know exactly when Margaret died, but it has to have been the early-to-mid 1970s. I'd say 1975-76 at the very latest, probably a little earlier. Harry is probably in the neighborhood of 50 these days, but IDR if it's ever been said precisely how old Harry is.
So it's possible that Margaret knew him. Heck, she might have fought alongside the Council against Kemmler, for all we know. Or possibly (though not I think very probably) she might have been on Kemmler's side against the Council.
Certainly, she was in the Game at the time when the Council took Kemmler down.
Mira:
--- Quote ---Likewise, we can build all sorts of scenarios where Margaret really wasn't so bad, and we can make them fit the available data...but they're never the simplest fit. The simplest fit for the available data is that Margaret started out as a misguided, short-sighted idealist, made friends and enemies along the way, and at some point became much, much worse, and then found redemption and salvation near the end of her life, and was then murdered by Lord Raith.
--- End quote ---
I think Margaret was that bad, but she was complicated and most people are. I think her motives may have started out good enough, i.e. that the Council needed reforming, but between her rebellion against Eb and other not so nice people exploiting her when she still was quite young, she did do all the bad things she was accused of. Love is also a big deal in the series, and the love of a good man made her want to change, and she did.
--- Quote ---Yeah, but that also fails the Ockham's Razor test. Yeah, that could be what's going on, but it's not the simplest explanation that fits the data. The whole conversation could be Nicodemus playing 7 dimensional chess. We know Nicodemus does sometimes play 7-d chess, so to speak.
--- End quote ---
Except because of Andriel, Nic thought he had a handle on Harry's thinking, because of Andriel, it could very well be Ockham's Razor.
--- Quote ---On the subject of Margaret, it occured to me today to wonder about something: did she know Kemmler?
--- End quote ---
Wouldn't be a shock if she did.
g33k:
--- Quote from: LordDresden2 on August 05, 2024, 04:24:17 AM --- ...
But the simpler explanation is that he was prepared to offer Harry a Coin, because a corrupted Harry could be useful, but he's also smart enough to know Harry would be a handful to control, so he makes the offer but is prepared to just kill him otherwise. That fits the scene, fits the data, and requires fewer assumptions ...
--- End quote ---
I am going to assert that it's virtually always incorrect to presume "Anduriel is only pursuing the simplest and most-straightforward plan, here" in any scene where Nic/Anduriel is onscreen (they are like Mab (and Odin) in this regard).
They don't play 7-d chess, they live and breathe it 24/7/365 and have been doing so for centuries.
In fact, Occam's Razor is the least-valid approach to these sorts of characters.
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
[*] Previous page
Go to full version