Harry should have trusted Ramirez

[Mira]

I'm beginning to hate two year olds.

They can be difficult...

[Arjan]

They can be difficult...

Wait until they get three….

[Mira]

Wait until they get three….

Or seven, for some reason my kids were really hard to deal with at that age.

[Conspiracy Theorist]

My theory is that Fortier was the Warden before Harry, but merely a placeholder to prevent anyone else from becoming Warden, like Kemmler, he had no interest in the island and only the Senior Council knew of his assuming the role, everyone else who might know about Demonreach like Eb, or Morgan weren’t told so they thought it was vacant, to protect from Kemmler etc.

You don’t leave the power to unleash the end of the world unguarded, you don’t know if some idiot or dark wizard is going to wander into it. Fortier was killed to free up the Wardenship, but Harry got their first (realising the worst fears of the Senior Council). This suggests that a current or former member of the Senior Council plotted the death of Fortier for this purpose as part of the Black Council. Remember Fortier was a nay vote against Harry and a supporter of the Merlin, whose nonintervention policy played directly into the Black Council’s game with the Red Court. His death exposed the mind control of Luccio and the wider Council by Peabody, so it had to be a significant gain to offset the political loss of Eb becoming Senior Council and the risk of exposure. Demonreach would be it.

The Cold Days Plan was a back up, to get over the existence of a Warden and exposed Nemesis in the Winter Court and left Winter stronger.

This is why Jim won’t name the Warden before Harry, and presumably the Warden before who was killed in 1961 by Kemmler to free up the Wardenship again, forcing the entire White Council to hunt him down. That would mean Fortier was Warden for nearly five decades in absentia.

This suggests that we are going to find out more about the last killing of Kemmler, Justin acquiring Bob, and the Demonreach succession.

[morriswalters]

I don't like it but it works on some level. It's way better then a super max setting in the middle of Lake Michigan with no Warden.

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Sometimes the things Jim won’t talk about is more significant than what he will talk about. He will talk about the Warden but two, but not Harry’s immediate predecessor.

If Fortier was killed to free up the Wardenship then that changes the perspective of Turn Coat. The plot wasn’t to destabilise the Senior Council at all, it was to access Demonreach. Harry found the who of it, but didn’t have enough information to point to the why of it. The Warden before Fortier is likely a major revelation in a future book, which will recast how we look at several books. Unless it was Kemmler again, coming back to life and regaining the Wardenship with a fresh Sanctum invocation when reaching the island next and finding it vacant. The Senior Council weren’t going to be caught twice like that.



If death frees up the Wardenship killing Kemmler the first time in the 1890’s would have done that. Returning to life may not have guaranteed he regained the Wardenship. His next death occurred near the end of WW2, with his final (so far) death being in 1961. That’s four further deaths between the end of WW2 and 1961. Fortier might have taken on the Wardenship in 1945 rather than 1961, once they realised Kemmler wasn’t staying dead.

[Mira]

  The only problem I have with your theory is, if Fortier was affected by Peabody's ink like most of the Council, what need was there to kill him?  Peabody could simply have manipulated him like he did Luccio to do the Black Council's bidding as far as the island goes.  Another unanswered question is, do the Warden activated defenses go down upon the death of it's Warden?  I asked that because in Cold Days the island was vulnerable because as we learn in Skin Game some of it's defenses can only be Warden activated, which they weren't in Cold Days..

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Older wizards were more resistant, Luccio was vulnerable having been swapped into a much younger body. They didn’t have the time to wait another decade or so for the ink to fully work which may have been the original plan.

By this time Harry had already visited the island for the first time in Small Favour. The Archive was there, all it took was her mentioning this to the Wardens as casual gossip for this to get into the reports filed by everyone (except Harry) which ended up on Peabody ‘s desk, freaking him out worse than if Harry had filed a report.

Harry had already ruined the Darkhallow (where Peabody was referenced, he likely suggested the Erl King as a victim) so rather than wait a decade or more with Harry blundering about in the vicinity Peabody had Fortier killed to free the island Wardenship, only as a consequence for Harry to gain the Wardenship by accident first.

[Mira]

Older wizards were more resistant, Luccio was vulnerable having been swapped into a much younger body. They didn’t have the time to wait another decade or so for the ink to fully work which may have been the original plan.

I don't think it was ever said how if Fortier was considered an older wizard or not.  They should have known about Harry then because it was during Turn Coat that he became Warden.  It was mentioned in Eb's journal in Turn Coat, the Merlin realized the implications and wanted Harry put under surveillance, it was almost two years later that the Outsiders with the help of Maeve tried their invasion of the island.  You'd think that the Merlin instead of putting a watch on Harry, would have explained what he was in for and the importance of the job, or Eb would have when he escorted Harry back to Chicago after he recovered from his wounds.  None of that happened.

By this time Harry had already visited the island for the first time in Small Favour. The Archive was there, all it took was her mentioning this to the Wardens as casual gossip for this to get into the reports filed by everyone (except Harry) which ended up on Peabody ‘s desk, freaking him out worse than if Harry had filed a report.

That could have happened, but at the same time Ivy wasn't fully engaged as host, still a little girl.  Nothing was written down, we don't even know how much about the island is on paper.  The Archive only knows for sure what is written down.  Even in his journal, Eb merely hints of meaning of what Harry did and it was dangerous, but nothing about the Warden job.  There could be a very good reason for that.

Harry had already ruined the Darkhallow (where Peabody was referenced, he likely suggested the Erl King as a victim) so rather than wait a decade or more with Harry blundering about in the vicinity Peabody had Fortier killed to free the island Wardenship, only as a consequence for Harry to gain the Wardenship by accident first.

That is presuming that Peabody knew before hand that Morgan would show up as he was pushing Luccio to murder Fortier, then that Morgan would willingly take the blame for the murder to protect Luccio, then run to Harry to figure it all out.  Further then assume that Harry would take Morgan to the island, and further assumed that Harry would do the genis thing for tactical advantage against the Senior Council.  Those are a lot of huge assumptions.. Since Peabody went there himself though one of the more dangerous Ways in secret, speaks to him perhaps trying to gain the Wardenship himself, but he was too late, Harry beat him unwittingly to the punch.

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Fortier was on the Senior Council, generally they put the ‘Senior’ In Senior Council.

Peabody had wonderful access to the documents of the White Council, his only blind spot was Harry, who didn’t do his paperwork. He likely had access to everything, including the Merlin’s personal intelligence (I believe he was paying Rudy, because everyone competent in Chicago PD had been already bought by Marcone).

Peabody was always a bit of a weakling for the Black Council unless he was setting himself up to be Warden.

Ivy is a Member of the Accords, a mediator called upon by the White Council, so yes they would know Harry had been on the island.

Harry blundered into the Wardenship, it was unforseeable that the murder would result in it, but it did happen, then Harry tells the Senior Council to meet him on the island, Peabody had to wait until he wouldn’t be missed and the Senior Council had left, but must have been frantic.

[morriswalters]

The reason Lafortier  was killed was to open up a seat on the Senior Council. That is stated explicitly in the text. Could he have been an absentee Warden? Sure.  But why?  That's almost as bad a not having a Warden at all. To communicate with Alfred Harry has to go to the island.  Did LaFortier have a yacht in the harbor at Chicago? For that matter where did Kemmler park his canoe?

[Mira]

The reason Lafortier  was killed was to open up a seat on the Senior Council. That is stated explicitly in the text. Could he have been an absentee Warden? Sure.  But why?  That's almost as bad a not having a Warden at all. To communicate with Alfred Harry has to go to the island.  Did LaFortier have a yacht in the harbor at Chicago? For that matter where did Kemmler park his canoe?

Both could possibly known a Way, Kemmler especially to the island.  However I agree with you on the rest.

Fortier was on the Senior Council, generally they put the ‘Senior’ In Senior Council.

Still there is a reason why Rashid said they'd have to go back and revisit all decisions made in the last few years because all of their judgements were questionable.  The ink may not have damaged their minds as severely as it did in the case of Luccio, but thinking can be affected and influenced without actually doing physical damage.

Peabody had wonderful access to the documents of the White Council, his only blind spot was Harry, who didn’t do his paperwork. He likely had access to everything, including the Merlin’s personal intelligence (I believe he was paying Rudy, because everyone competent in Chicago PD had been already bought by Marcone).

That still doesn't mean that he actually knew everything. 

Ivy is a Member of the Accords, a mediator called upon by the White Council, so yes they would know Harry had been on the island.

Yes, but that was in Small Favor, Harry didn't become Warden till he stumbled upon it in Turn Coat. So even if they knew, it didn't mean anything that they knew...

Harry blundered into the Wardenship, it was unforseeable that the murder would result in it, but it did happen, then Harry tells the Senior Council to meet him on the island, Peabody had to wait until he wouldn’t be missed and the Senior Council had left, but must have been frantic.

Well, if Peabody already knew that Harry had blundered into Wardenship, it was too late for him to do anything anyway.  Also he would have known that Morgan was going to be the sacrifice lamb in any case, what did him in was the fact that Harry figured out that he was manipulating other wizards with his ink.

[Conspiracy Theorist]

The reason Lafortier  was killed was to open up a seat on the Senior Council. That is stated explicitly in the text. Could he have been an absentee Warden? Sure.  But why?  That's almost as bad a not having a Warden at all. To communicate with Alfred Harry has to go to the island.  Did LaFortier have a yacht in the harbor at Chicago? For that matter where did Kemmler park his canoe?

For Christos? He seems only to have been a stalking horse, we have seen nothing to suggest that he was more than an politically ambitious individual fed up with certain aspects of Senior Council politics. He wasn’t Black Council he wouldn’t have been part of the White Council delegation in Peace Talks otherwise. Remember everyone (except Harry) was suggestible at this point. The Black Council gained nothing by elevating Christos, so why murder Fortier? If the murder the Warden and suggest that it was internal politics it throws off the pursuit.

The point is It was known in the White Council from Small Favour Harry was interested in the island, enough to panic.

There is a way onto the island Rashid can use it, as he pleases  and Maeve was able to use it once to bring Peabody and the spiders. This suggests that the way comes out deep in Winter, most likely Arctis Tor, and I think we have already seen where, a room where Mab keeps beings prisoner in blocks of crystal ice, where they can reflect upon their misdeeds. Sounds familiar?

The attack on Arctis Tor in Proven Guilty may have been an attempt on Demonreach by Nemesis and the Black Council. Just because you know where something is via the Ways does not map onto its location in the real world, and Demonreach hides its location. A way from Arctis Tor to Demonreach may long have been known and used in the past, but subsequently guarded by Mab. That attempt failed because Fortier was Warden and doubtless the Alfred was set up to guard it in his absence.

This mean’t identifying the Warden, killing him and taking up the Wardenship themselves. This attack would have been set up in Grave Peril giving Lea the Athame, and follows on from the Nemesis strategy of dual attack on the Outer Gates and Demonreach. If Cowl had been successful in Dead Beat he would have taken down the well protected White Council headquarters, in the process killing the then unidentified Warden.

Maeve and the Black Council may have only discovered its real world location in Turn Coat, if it is something passed down orally amongst the Senior Council and Blackstaff and the Warden  (the Archive didn’t know) and then not to all members of the Senior Council. Spooky island may not have equated with Supernatural Supermax for most of the Senior Council.

This allowed for a direct attack in Cold Days, and Nemesis trying to access again by deceit in Battleground. Thrice denied. Four if you count Dead Beat.

[morriswalters]

I never said it couldn't be true.  I asked why it might be.

[Mira]

The attack on Arctis Tor in Proven Guilty may have been an attempt on Demonreach by Nemesis and the Black Council. Just because you know where something is via the Ways does not map onto its location in the real world, and Demonreach hides its location. A way from Arctis Tor to Demonreach may long have been known and used in the past, but subsequently guarded by Mab. That attempt failed because Fortier was Warden and doubtless the Alfred was set up to guard it in his absence.

The problem with that theory is Arctis Tor is in the Nevernever, while Demonreach is not, I also doubt whoever attacked Arctis Tor would confuse the two.  While the island isn't on the map it can be found if you know where to look.  The Denarians had no problem finding it and taking Ivy and Marcone there. 

For Christos? He seems only to have been a stalking horse, we have seen nothing to suggest that he was more than an politically ambitious individual fed up with certain aspects of Senior Council politics. He wasn’t Black Council he wouldn’t have been part of the White Council delegation in Peace Talks otherwise. Remember everyone (except Harry) was suggestible at this point. The Black Council gained nothing by elevating Christos, so why murder Fortier? If the murder the Warden and suggest that it was internal politics it throws off the pursuit.

But no one has clue who is on the Black Council, except it is a good bet that Peabody was, but he is dead.  Until he was found out by Harry he played the efficient loyal Council secretary for years.  So
Christos could very well be on the Black Council quietly undermining the White Council.  It has also been suggested that it could be a figment of Harry's imagination.. Not that he is wrong, but it may not be what he thinks.

The point is It was known in the White Council from Small Favour Harry was interested in the island, enough to panic.

Harry wasn't interested in the island in Small Favor, he went there, true, but only because Nic wanted him to go there with the Sword of Faith to trade for Ivy and Marcone.

There is a way onto the island Rashid can use it, as he pleases  and Maeve was able to use it once to bring Peabody and the spiders. This suggests that the way comes out deep in Winter, most likely Arctis Tor, and I think we have already seen where, a room where Mab keeps beings prisoner in blocks of crystal ice, where they can reflect upon their misdeeds. Sounds familiar?

There really isn't any evidence for that.. Yes, Rashid used a Way to get to the island.  Peabody did as well along with the spiders, no evidence that it was the same Way that Rashid used. Or if it was Rashid was better at controlling the spiders than Peabody because it was just him waiting for Harry on the dock.  I don't think that Maeve needs to use a Way to get anywhere anymore than Mab does.