Unsolved Mystery Book9 Cowl again

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

Could I ask you to either quote inline or cut the bits you're not responding to ?  Seeing a whole post of mine with several different points block-quoted and responded to like that makes it a ways from clear which bit of yours is responding to which of mine.

One problem I have with this line of reasoning is that if you weaken everyone it basicaly lets the bulk of winters forces at the gates intact and no tools left to hit them with.

Why would anyone need to hit them directly when it is clearly possible to work around them?  Regardless of how Nemesis works, summoning the Walkers to Earth does not seem to be something they automatically block.

As soon as everyone is weakened enough the turmoil will stop. It is only going on because several players see chances to improve their positions.

And so long as no one party lets too much of a lead, the sort of people stupid enough to feel they have to leap at the prospect of immediate gain will keep doing so even when they are so beaten down they can barely crawl.

It is not a working strategy because we can assume the outsiders have only a relative small number of real agents at this side of the gates.

I'm not seeing why we can, or whether number matters near so much as power there.

It is just that the outsiders had the red court nicely on track and that the red king was also planning to defeat the council at that moment. There was no reason for them to end the red court because they would spend their energy doing what the outsiders wanted anyway.

I see no reason to assume the Red Court are doing what the Outsiders want, because the war with the White Council is very much against the Red Court's interest and the more sensible members of the Red Court are continually doing their best to stop it.

I firmly believe there is no way the Red Court can have defeated  the White Council, except possibly in the narrow window between DB and PG, and furthermore, that what Changes illustrates is that the White Council can, given the decision to do so, destroy the Red Court in a matter of days.

Mab's involvement may have had other reasons as well but all those powers together point only to one thing.

Indeed; the chance to get Harry to do some much-needed growing up.

[Arjan]

Why would anyone need to hit them directly when it is clearly possible to work around them?  Regardless of how Nemesis works, summoning the Walkers to Earth does not seem to be something they automatically block.

Because I think the gates have to be broken to get the bulk of the outsiders here and that means defeating the bulk of winter. Nemesis influences players either by direct infection or by manipulation and playing on their nature but at the end they need to do something big to get through. Something apocalyptic that takes three books.

And so long as no one party lets too much of a lead, the sort of people stupid enough to feel they have to leap at the prospect of immediate gain will keep doing so even when they are so beaten down they can barely crawl.

Not enough. If everyone is equally beaten down that will stop for a while or become meaningless. The big powers will still be untouched however and the bulk of winters troops as well.

I'm not seeing why we can, or whether number matters near so much as power there.

Not number of mooks, they probably have quite a few cults with mooks, but agents that really matter at least at Cowl’s level.

I see no reason to assume the Red Court are doing what the Outsiders want, because the war with the White Council is very much against the Red Court's interest and the more sensible members of the Red Court are continually doing their best to stop it.

They lost. And I am not so sure they even tried that hard. I think you take Duke Ortegas words far too seriously. And also they did exactly what the outsiders wanted from them by waging war with the white council and continuously escalating it.

I firmly believe there is no way the Red Court can have defeated  the White Council, except possibly in the narrow window between DB and PG, and furthermore, that what Changes illustrates is that the White Council can, given the decision to do so, destroy the Red Court in a matter of days.

I do not think that is true at least not the white council on its own. and if it were true it would be reason for Cowl to strengthen the red court and not to weaken it.

And changes was a unique opportunity, it illustrates both strengths and weaknesses of the red court. It also shows a lot of arrogance.

Indeed; the chance to get Harry to do some much-needed growing up.

Doubtless big on Uriels agenda but was that enough to get the whole coalition there?

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

Because I think the gates have to be broken to get the bulk of the outsiders here and that means defeating the bulk of winter. Nemesis influences players either by direct infection or by manipulation and playing on their nature but at the end they need to do something big to get through. Something apocalyptic that takes three books.

I genuinely do not think we are going to get one overall apocalyptic thread, rather than three separate events, in the BAT.

Not enough. If everyone is equally beaten down that will stop for a while or become meaningless.

You've said that before, and I still disagree.  How beaten down do you think people would need to be to stop?  In the absence of the events of Changes, for example, do you have difficulty believing in the last surviving White Council wizard and the last surviving Red Court vampire being more interested in killing each other than in stopping to take a breath and figure out what else is going on?

The big powers will still be untouched however and the bulk of winters troops as well.

Which big powers?  Do you think that Cowl and allies have been doing things offstage to weaken entities like Ferrovax?

They lost. And I am not so sure they even tried that hard. I think you take Duke Ortegas words far too seriously.

I take them seriously because he backs them with his actions.  He puts his own life on the line in an attempt to stop the war.

And also they did exactly what the outsiders wanted from them by waging war with the white council and continuously escalating it.

This feels like there's circular logic in here somewhere.  Why do you think that "waging war and continually escalating it" rather than "waging war and losing as much as they win" is what the Outsiders want here?  The latter is a much better fit with what actually happens prior to Changes.

Doubtless big on Uriels agenda but was that enough to get the whole coalition there?

I would argue yes, because, as I argued in the post I linked you to a bit ago, I think that Harry is nearly unique in the DV, as part of a joint plan involving Uriel, Mab and Odin (and after SG I am willing to put Hades in their camp also) that has been running since well before he was born, with the objective of giving him access to pretty much every supernatural power source in the DV, in order to back up his near-unique ability against Outsiders.  The Red Court are at best a bunch of enemy foot soldiers; Harry is the Manhattan Project.  He's clearly much more important to their plans, and the end of GS is such a perfect manipulation to put him where he will serve Uriel and Mab's interests both, I do not believe that is an accident.

[Arjan]

I genuinely do not think we are going to get one overall apocalyptic thread, rather than three separate events, in the BAT.

We don't know but I suspect three apocalypses somewhat connected and all leading to the final one with the outsiders.

You've said that before, and I still disagree.  How beaten down do you think people would need to be to stop?  In the absence of the events of Changes, for example, do you have difficulty believing in the last surviving White Council wizard and the last surviving Red Court vampire being more interested in killing each other than in stopping to take a breath and figure out what else is going on?

You only do that when you are living close to each other and are locked in an a fight for survival.

In Dead Beat the white council does not even know where the reds are based beyond somewhere in latin america. For the red court this was not, until the final act of changes, an existential fight for survival. The real Mayan have not even been into the picture before Changes. War caused some turmoil in the red court but mainly because it removed some middle management and lower placed vampires saw it as an opportunity to climb the pyramid. It looks like the red court was somewhat frustrated that their hunt for the white council was not successfull and finally decided to bring in the big guns.

In that context the most logical thing for the red court to do when beaten significantly is to go back to their liars, lick their wounds and wait for better times. Both sides will somewhat recover and Winter can in the meantime concentrate on its real problems, the outsiders do not win in that scenario.

That only changes if the outsiders have a really big influence on the reds, not just a little push in a direction compatible with their nature. And that would be a very good reason to get rid of them.

Which big powers?  Do you think that Cowl and allies have been doing things offstage to weaken entities like Ferrovax?

Hades, Mab, the mothers. They have not been really touched by the outsiders schemes yet and that should happen in or just before the bat. For that the outsiders need really big tools, the red court would not be enough. I think they tried to create a fomor-red court coalition against winter. The fomor have a lot of grudges against winter so that helps the outsiders.

I take them seriously because he backs them with his actions.  He puts his own life on the line in an attempt to stop the war.

It seems that way. He is full of shit and when he loses the duel he cheats again. Ortega is a lying manipulator on the level with Nicodemus in some respects.

This feels like there's circular logic in here somewhere.  Why do you think that "waging war and continually escalating it" rather than "waging war and losing as much as they win" is what the Outsiders want here?  The latter is a much better fit with what actually happens prior to Changes.

Winter guards the gates and so must be the ultimate target. What the outsiders wanted is that the reds were so pulled into the war with first the white council and then winter that there was no way back for them. That is why they were pushed to break the accords. In that sense they were highly successful because the reds earned Lea and Mabs enmity and sooner or later a full scale war with winter.

They did not need to weaken the reds because the reds were not strong enough for that task. But with the Fomor maybe.

I would argue yes, because, as I argued in the post I linked you to a bit ago, I think that Harry is nearly unique in the DV, as part of a joint plan involving Uriel, Mab and Odin (and after SG I am willing to put Hades in their camp also) that has been running since well before he was born, with the objective of giving him access to pretty much every supernatural power source in the DV, in order to back up his near-unique ability against Outsiders.  The Red Court are at best a bunch of enemy foot soldiers; Harry is the Manhattan Project.  He's clearly much more important to their plans, and the end of GS is such a perfect manipulation to put him where he will serve Uriel and Mab's interests both, I do not believe that is an accident.

Harry has the possibility to become that unique person but he was not the only one. But he becomes more and more important in every book. So yes educating Harry was an important motive but I do not think that all those powers would have encouraged Harry in his course to Chichen Itza if the reds were a useful or necessery part of the current structure. They all wanted the red court gone every one including Uriel.

[jonas]

Idk so much that it's more than one threat, as that threat is going to manifest different ways of trying to break reality. for instance... 3 BAT's and 3 walkers 'touching'. Metaphor for a trilogy lol?

[wardenferry419]

3 different battlefronts. One demon, one Fae, and one vamp.

[jonas]

That's the obvious points of the BAT...

[wardenferry419]

I like being Mr. Obvious. I am as subtle as a bull in a china shop. Or, Harry in a burning building.

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

We don't know but I suspect three apocalypses somewhat connected and all leading to the final one with the outsiders.

Nah, I think the outsiders will be the first one, the Fallen the second smaller one, and the third one will be Scouring of the Shire-scale White Court stuff.

You only do that when you are living close to each other and are locked in an a fight for survival.

Harry seems an easy sell on believing this is the case with the Red Court between GP and Changes, though.

For the red court this was not, until the final act of changes, an existential fight for survival. The real Mayan have not even been into the picture before Changes.

Harry not seeing them does not mean they weren't involved.

Do you think that if a minor Red Court functionary tried starting a war with the White Council without approval from the higher levels, the Red Court would hesitate to disown and sacrifice them ?

In that context the most logical thing for the red court to do when beaten significantly is to go back to their liars, lick their wounds and wait for better times. Both sides will somewhat recover and Winter can in the meantime concentrate on its real problems, the outsiders do not win in that scenario.

Your notion of Winter as more significant than anyone else in keeping the Outsiders out is not something I agree with; iirc one of the Mothers says that is only at this point in time and has not always been the case, which strongly suggests they are not the only entities capable of fulfilling that role.

That only changes if the outsiders have a really big influence on the reds, not just a little push in a direction compatible with their nature.

How big a push do you think pushing them into a war they can't possibly win is ?

Hades, Mab, the mothers. They have not been really touched by the outsiders schemes yet and that should happen in or just before the bat.

Have you some reason of ruling out us finding out that they have actually been seriously touched by those schemes ?

Think of how much Harry knows about now that was ongoing at the time of SF but that he had no idea about then.  Are we really in a position to rule out there being as much or more currently going on that he is still blithely unaware of ?  This is a person who has been deliberately avoiding the White Council as much as he possibly can, so is set up to be less informed about the supernatural world than most of his peers.  (Which makes sense at a meta-level for JB to pace us learning about stuff along with Harry.)

It seems that way. He is full of shit and when he loses the duel he cheats again. Ortega is a lying manipulator on the level with Nicodemus in some respects.

When you say "again" there, what are you referring to as him having cheated before ?

I see no reason to think Ortega lies.  I think that when he is put on the hot seat, he is willing to go a very long way to stop this pointless war.  Including cheating in a duel, which he knows full well will bring the full weight of the Accords down on him and probably get him killed.  The guy is willing to sacrifice his own life that way in order to kill Harry and stop the war.  That does not look like a liar to me, it looks like someone dedicated and self-sacrificing for the interests of his people.

Harry has the possibility to become that unique person but he was not the only one. But he becomes more and more important in every book.

I'll say. he has soulfire (which Nicodemus very nicely set up by exposing him to hellfire, which is probably why the guy thinks he has a chance of ending up a saint), he has the Winter mantle, he is a well-trained wizard, he's been exposed to non-negative uses of necromancy.  Harry was not the only potential starborn at the beginning, but he is a major useful piece now.

I do not think that all those powers would have encouraged Harry in his course to Chichen Itza if the reds were a useful or necessery part of the current structure. They all wanted the red court gone every one including Uriel.

You give the Reds far more importance here than I do.

[wardenferry419]

Well, one important detail about the RCV is that they were possibly the largest vamp court  and maybe had the easiest and fastest way of converting mortals into supernatural creatures. Even a half-turned vamp is fairly powerful andwas able to give Denerians some trouble. That made them a big threat to mortals.

[Arjan]

Nah, I think the outsiders will be the first one, the Fallen the second smaller one, and the third one will be Scouring of the Shire-scale White Court stuff.

Possible I suppose. Not written yet.

Harry seems an easy sell on believing this is the case with the Red Court between GP and Changes, though.

For the white council, not for the red court. How can it be when the council does not even know were they came from?

Harry not seeing them does not mean they weren't involved.

They were probably involved but I do not think they were personally involved most of the time and Harry was involved in the war. He was relatively close to Lucio and collected trophy's with Ramirez. It is highly suspicious that he knew so little about the red courts command structure. It suggests the white council knew very little which was confirmed when Lucio told Harry they were based "Somewhere in Latin America"

Do you think that if a minor Red Court functionary tried starting a war with the White Council without approval from the higher levels, the Red Court would hesitate to disown and sacrifice them ?

Bianca did in a sense. It depends what suited them but that was not the point. For the lower levels the war offers chances for pyramid climbing so they can form support for a war. Support that only needs a leader. There will be pressure for war from the bottom up.

Your notion of Winter as more significant than anyone else in keeping the Outsiders out is not something I agree with; iirc one of the Mothers says that is only at this point in time and has not always been the case, which strongly suggests they are not the only entities capable of fulfilling that role.

But now it is winter and if the norse gods had that position before they did not really stop, they support winter. Mab took that position because she is the strongest which is also the reaso why she owns the accords. She is set up by Jim as the one to beat.

How big a push do you think pushing them into a war they can't possibly win is ?

That was a big success for the outsiders. But if they can not win that war there is no sense in weakening them, only in encouraging them by strengthening them. Keep them at war as long as possible.

Have you some reason of ruling out us finding out that they have actually been seriously touched by those schemes?

Mab was somewhat touched but not fundamentally. I do not think the rest is. That probably will happen later though.

Think of how much Harry knows about now that was ongoing at the time of SF but that he had no idea about then.  Are we really in a position to rule out there being as much or more currently going on that he is still blithely unaware of ?  This is a person who has been deliberately avoiding the White Council as much as he possibly can, so is set up to be less informed about the supernatural world than most of his peers.  (Which makes sense at a meta-level for JB to pace us learning about stuff along with Harry.)

When you say "again" there, what are you referring to as him having cheated before ?

Harry was warned by both Thomas and Shiro that Ortega was an act meant to destabalize him. You can stop seeking meaning in his words except for the designed impact on Harry.

It worked to well for that to be anything else.

I see no reason to think Ortega lies.  I think that when he is put on the hot seat, he is willing to go a very long way to stop this pointless war.  Including cheating in a duel, which he knows full well will bring the full weight of the Accords down on him and probably get him killed.  The guy is willing to sacrifice his own life that way in order to kill Harry and stop the war.  That does not look like a liar to me, it looks like someone dedicated and self-sacrificing for the interests of his people.

He got you as well as he nearly got Harry. I do not think he thought he could lose.

I'll say. he has soulfire (which Nicodemus very nicely set up by exposing him to hellfire, which is probably why the guy thinks he has a chance of ending up a saint),

Do you want to take his words seriously as well?

he has the Winter mantle, he is a well-trained wizard, he's been exposed to non-negative uses of necromancy.  Harry was not the only potential starborn at the beginning, but he is a major useful piece now.

He gets more and more usefull but not enough to sacrifice a whole supernatural group if they are not a liability for other reasons.

You give the Reds far more importance here than I do.

Most prominent outsider tool is not that important. They are probably just the first, others are being influenced right now. I think they were supposed to join up with the Fomor for an even bigger war, that was prevented in Changes.

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

Well, one important detail about the RCV is that they were possibly the largest vamp court  and maybe had the easiest and fastest way of converting mortals into supernatural creatures.

We don't know this at all, and we have circumstantial evidence pointing very much in the opposite direction.

For one thing, we know from WoJ that the White Council first became aware of the Red Court about the time Europeans were exploring the Americas.  Which means that if the Reds were building their forces towards being able to take on the White Council, they were very slow about doing so.  Certainly slower than the Council could; Luccio mentions in Changes that by that point the Council had twice the strength in the field they had before the losses of DB, and that took them five years.

For another, possibly the most important datapoint about supernatural predators in the DV is one that Harry is by definition incapable of realising.  The bit early on in DB where Harry explains to Butters about the numbers of human beings who go missing.  Where he is quoting real-world numbers exactly.

The DV has organised crime.  The DV has abusive families and runaway children.  We've seen these in the text.  We have no reason to believe that these and other reasons why people disappear are any different as facts of the DV than they are in RL.

Which means that the actual impact of supernatural predation on humans in the DV is statistically negligible.  There's hardly any of it.

We've seen one human partially transformed, and that took at least one Red Court noble and possibly a whole houseful of other Red Court to achieve.

The other major piece of evidence here, fwiw, is that Harry entirely understands the dangers of exponential growth among enemies, and explains it quite cogently to Murphy earlyish in BR when talking about the Black Court.  But neither there nor anywhere else does anyone apply or suggest applying that model to the Red Court.  To my mind, that strongly suggests that it does not in fact apply.

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

It suggests the white council knew very little which was confirmed when Lucio told Harry they were based "Somewhere in Latin America"

And you believe that too ?  Chichen Itza is a real place, and not an obscure one.  It's a significant historic site and a huge tourist destination.  It's about as plausible that  the Council don't know its significance to the Red Court as it would be if they were hanging out at Stonehenge.

As for the rest of the post, at this point I feel like you and I are just arguing assertions back and forth at one another, and your assessment of when characters are reliable sources and when not does not make over much sense to me, so I see no particular benefit to continuing this debate; would certainly be on for talking more as to how that should be judged generally, but that probably warrants a different thread.

[wardenferry419]

I was thinking about one of the battle descriptions where 20 vamps were getting dropped per warden or wizard lost and the WC still was over-run. At Chicken Pizza, I thought there were thousands more. While I agree with you the WC grow rapidly in numbers; how does average power per person equate with the power per person of those lost? But, you are right that we didn't have an on-screen conversion. I might be working on some of the more traditional ideas of the process. One or two nips and sips. WCV seems to be limited by lack of offspring produced and BCV seem to have self-imposed and literature-induced limitations on their numbers.