Author Topic: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach  (Read 9336 times)

Offline raidem

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Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
« on: January 23, 2018, 12:35:09 AM »
I'm in an argument over on Discord with my nemesis. :)

Let's lay the foundation.
Quote
Then I saw the dissonance appear. Bob had chosen to show it as a sullen red light that began to pulse lightly at the westernmost edges of the great design. It began as something faint, but then, like an oncoming headache, started to throb into something larger and more noticeable. Where scarlet and blue light touched, there were ugly flares of energy-flares that I had been sensing ever since I'd gotten to the island. Before long, that scarlet pulse had spread to half the island, and then, abruptly, the screen went white.
Text at the bottom read, NOVEMBER 1.
"By tomorrow," I said. "Super. But I still don't see what is wrong, Bob."
"Energy hits it," Bob said. "A directed burst of energy, a whole lot of it. It unravels the whole containment spell Merlin laid down and triggers the fail-safe."
"FIRE," rumbled Demonreach.
"I figured that one out, thanks," I said. "But nothing has actually happened to the spells yet?"
"Nope," said Bob. "That tension that's building? It's . . . Well, think of it as cause and effect, only backward."
"What the island is experiencing now is the echo of the moment that burst of energy strikes it," Bob said. "Only instead of the echo happening after, it's happening first."
I stopped and thought. "You're telling me that the reason the island is about to blow up is . . . because it's about to blow up?"
Bob sighed. "Someone hits the island with energy, Harry. But they've figured out how Merlin put this place together. They aren't attacking it in three dimensions. They're attacking in four. They're sending power through time as well as through space."
"So . . . I have to stop them from attacking the island tomorrow?"
"No," Bob said, exasperated. "You have to stop them from attacking whenever it is that they actually attack.
"
"Uh . . ."
Quote
"Look, the rock they're throwing hits tomorrow," Bob said. "But you have to stop them from throwing it at whatever point they're standing when they throw it."
"Oh," I said, blinking. "I get that."
Bob turned to look at Demonreach. "Do you see what I have to work with here? I had to take that down to throwing a rock before it got through."
"HIS UNDERSTANDING IS LIMITED," Demonreach agreed.

First the definition
I stipulated 'cosmic' Halloween to be defined as the time in which the conjunction exists whereby immortals are made mortal.

General impression:
I argue the attacks can be entirely within cosmic Halloween.

2:19 PM] -EG-: They're throwing it from the barges. It builds up and hits the next day. Halloween no longer applies, stuff in the Well goes free.

EG's argument is that the Demonreach attack rock doesn't hit until November 1st (but post Halloween) per the white screen with it labeled at bottom and per Bob "Look, the rock they're throwing hits tomorrow."
The attack may be thrown when the barge hits but the rock doesn't hit until November 1st.
He is dead set that because we see a white screen labeled November 1st, that means whatever event it signifies must hit not on halloween but Nov 1st.
Therefore there are no mantles to be gobbled up as the immortals aren't destroyed but set free to cause huge disorder, etc.

My arguments are this.
Bob showed us a model isn't completely accurate.
Harry took November 1st to mean 'by tomorrow" not necessarily tomorrow.
I pointed to
Quote
So . . . I have to stop them from attacking the island tomorrow?"
"No," Bob said, exasperated. "You have to stop them from attacking whenever it is that they actually attack.
.
I then point to Vadderung's
Quote
“Meaning that the echoes caused by the temporal event are proportionately greater than the span of time that was bridged,” he said. “Had the attack been launched from a century ago, or hence, the echoes of it would have begun far, far in advance of the event—centuries ago. These echoes have appeared only within the past few days. I would guess, roughly, that the attack must originate only hours from the actual, real-time occurrence.” “Which is tomorrow,” I said. “So it’s happening sometime today or sometime tomorrow.” “Most likely not tomorrow,” Vadderung said. “Altering one’s past is more than mildly difficult.”

Other issues at play
I argued that some/most prisoners within Demonreach have mantles.  He argued they don't have them.
I argued that the banefire event would be on Halloween not on Nov 1st so as to kill the prisoners.  I'd allow however that the energy could be gobbled up. He is pretty steadfast about Nov 1st as shown by model being accurate depiction of what would occur.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2018, 03:20:01 AM by raidem »
"That's it???  It's really that simple? 
LIES!  Damn lies!  It's a cover up!
WOJ: http://www.paranetonline.com/index.php/topic,21772.0.html

Offline raidem

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Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2018, 12:54:52 AM »
So I argued that the barge, with the ritual on it, landing on the shore of Demonreach would be the "attack" that would cause "dissonance to appear" at the westernmost edges of the great design.  He argued it wouldn't take effect until Nov 1st as he previously stated per Bob 'hit tomorrow' and label Nov 1st.

What is the verdict.  Your thoughts on the matter of the attack on Demonreach.

Some of the summation of my arguments:
So. To sum up arguments so far.
[3:29 PM] raidem: I've argued that some, many of the prisoners in Demonreach have mantles/power.
[3:30 PM] raidem: That this/these mantles/powers would be released in destruction of Demonreach on cosmic Halloween.(edited)
[3:30 PM] raidem: That consumers (Outsiders, Insider) could take advantage of these resources by 'gobbling' them up.
[3:32 PM] raidem: I argue that Harry may have killed HWWBefore and we saw a 'mantlelike' essence retreat toward the retreating Outside army.
[3:33 PM] raidem: I argued that there was a difference, in some end result, between Harry killing HWWB and HWWBefore.  That killing HWWBefore on Halloween with Winter and Soulfire did something more than what occurred when he was just 16.
[3:35 PM] raidem: I argued that human ideas can create mantles. And that Jim has a liberal definition of the same word 'mantle.'
[3:36 PM] raidem: I argued that the white screen depicted by Bob is 'by tomorrow' not strictly November 1st. (cosmic Halloween would still be enforced)(edited)
[3:38 PM] raidem: I now say if on November 1st and not cosmic Halloween then the last option is what @-EG- suggests would take place, that of freeing the prisoners
« Last Edit: January 23, 2018, 12:59:39 AM by raidem »
"That's it???  It's really that simple? 
LIES!  Damn lies!  It's a cover up!
WOJ: http://www.paranetonline.com/index.php/topic,21772.0.html

Offline Cozarkian

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Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2018, 01:01:14 AM »
Cutting to the chase, your problem is the failure to realize that Nov. 1 is still Halloween. Halloween lasts until sunrise.

Offline raidem

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Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2018, 01:12:44 AM »
Not really because I called it 'cosmic' Halloween so we stipulated that the conjunction would first cease to exist. He still argued it would hit post 'cosmic' Halloween on Nov 1st.

Bob had mentioned Harry would have until the first natural birdsong.

I did in fact bring up the wards that Mab, Harry and allies were confined behind.

I just found this so this is new to the argument. It's the birdsong.

Quote
The rest of the night passed without anyone getting killed. I sat down with my back against the outside wall of the cottage, to keep an eye on my “guests” down the hill, but when I blinked a few seconds later, my eyes stuck shut, and then didn’t open again until I heard, distantly, a bird twittering. Footsteps came crunching up the hill, and I opened my eyes to see Kringle approaching.

That bird signaled the end of 'cosmic' Halloween.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2018, 02:16:28 AM by raidem »
"That's it???  It's really that simple? 
LIES!  Damn lies!  It's a cover up!
WOJ: http://www.paranetonline.com/index.php/topic,21772.0.html

Offline peregrine

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Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2018, 01:32:12 AM »
Other than "It's a thing that happened," what evidence do you have that the bird signaled the end of Halloween?

Offline raidem

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Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2018, 01:35:09 AM »
Sorry.  I revised it. 
The bird signified the end of the day, and start of the next.  per Bob.

Quote
“How big a window do I have? When does Halloween night end?” I asked. “At the first natural morning birdsong,” Bob replied promptly. “Songbirds, rooster, whatever. They start to sing, the night ends.”

Butcher, Jim. Cold Days (The Dresden Files, Book 14) (p. 100). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
"That's it???  It's really that simple? 
LIES!  Damn lies!  It's a cover up!
WOJ: http://www.paranetonline.com/index.php/topic,21772.0.html

Offline raidem

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Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2018, 01:37:26 AM »
Corzarkian, you make a good argument though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halloween

In some cultures, it is a three day event.

For the argument purposes, it's irrelevant.  Vadderung just told Harry “Most likely not tomorrow,” Vadderung said. “Altering one’s past is more than mildly difficult.”  This contradicts Bob's "Look, the rock they're throwing hits tomorrow,"

This comment is actually a bit confusing.  Vadderung here is either implying Harry or Vadderung's own past would be changed by 'the attack being tomorrow." This is further confused timewise by Kringle pushing the Wild Hunt out of it's time trap.  We think this pushed him either up or downstream.  It likely sped his time up to slow Wild Hunt's time down.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2018, 01:49:25 AM by raidem »
"That's it???  It's really that simple? 
LIES!  Damn lies!  It's a cover up!
WOJ: http://www.paranetonline.com/index.php/topic,21772.0.html

Offline Cozarkian

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Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2018, 02:15:18 AM »
Halloween ends at first natural  birdsong on tomorrow, Nov. 1. Bob explains that the rock hits on tomorrow,  Nov.1 but doesn't know when the attack is. Vadderung's tomorrow references the throwing of the rock, not the landing of the rock. They most likely aren't throwing the rock tomorrow pm, because the explosion would have already happened, tomorrow am, which would change the past.

At least, that's my best attempt to make it all non-conflicting.

Offline raidem

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Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2018, 02:19:15 AM »
The rock throw and hit is a dumbed down version that isn't the model he shows Harry.  So, it is inaccurate in some respects.

This "sullen red light that began to pulse lightly at the westernmost edges of the great design" corresponds with where the barges approach from, I think.  I believe it is the landing of the barges that creates the dissonance that unwraps Merlin's workings.  They occur on Halloween.

Quote
I would guess, roughly, that the attack must originate only hours from the actual, real-time occurrence.” “Which is tomorrow,” I said. “So it’s happening sometime today or sometime tomorrow.” “Most likely not tomorrow,” Vadderung said.
This means it's not tomorrow, and that it occurs today with each event within hours of each other.  Since 'today' is 10/31 and tomorrow is 11/1, the attack takes place today as we see it does.  Vadderung refers to both rock throw, rock hit within hours of each other. 

My arguments allow for the rock throw and rock hit to be during Halloween, part 10/31 part 11/1.
I get stubborn though if you push the argument and say the rock hit is past 'Halloween' and on 11/1 (not on 'Halloween').
My thinking is that the banefire as a result of the attack would be activated while Halloween is active not when it isn't.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2018, 03:05:43 AM by raidem »
"That's it???  It's really that simple? 
LIES!  Damn lies!  It's a cover up!
WOJ: http://www.paranetonline.com/index.php/topic,21772.0.html

Offline jonas

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Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
« Reply #9 on: January 23, 2018, 04:13:51 AM »
Two points to make I think,
 1, I kinda agree with this, it should hit in the future, maybe I need to reread that scene(which i'll do tonight I think) but I thought that's what was up,
2 i'd argue wither the immortals in the mantle could truly be killed with Banefire. It may kill them in most all senses but I think the universe will still have that memory to try to fill up and since human memory has not truly forgotten those things they could reemerge.(this is why I think outsiders try to take on the constructs of dead deity) Plus the results would be catastrophic anyway, they are the source of all negative energy in the world(from 'the well' description) Without those forces contained in reality balance would have to be resettled somewhere.
But as long as humans remember I think their reemergence will be faster than most.
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Offline groinkick

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Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
« Reply #10 on: January 23, 2018, 05:38:21 AM »
lol I love that you're debating with your "nemesis".  Congrats on 5,000 posts.
Stole this from Reginald because it was so well put, and is true for me as well.

"I love this place. It was a beacon in the dark and I couldn't have made it through some of the most maddening years of my life without some great people here."  Thank you Griff and others who took up the torch.

Offline jonas

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Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
« Reply #11 on: January 23, 2018, 10:20:10 AM »
lol I love that you're debating with your "nemesis".  Congrats on 5,000 posts.
Lmao it got funnier when I realized EG is his Nemesis.

I'd get on the discord discord but I have no idea how it works really(made an acc) and i'd have to wait until the house was quiet, which is practically never.
Quote from: A. Lanning
I'm sorry, My responses are limited. You must ask the right questions.
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...And so as long as men die, Liberty will never perish.

Offline Mira

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Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
« Reply #12 on: January 23, 2018, 12:16:45 PM »
Cutting to the chase, your problem is the failure to realize that Nov. 1 is still Halloween. Halloween lasts until sunrise.

That doesn't have to be sunrise, anyone who has roosters knows they can crow at any time in the night.  Anyone awake early enough knows that some birds start to sing as early as three and four in the morning... Some birds do their singing after dark.

Quote
That bird signaled the end of 'cosmic' Halloween.

Problem with that is it appears to be a "generic" bird instead of a specific species, so that in of itself could be a trap...

Offline Kindler

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Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
« Reply #13 on: January 23, 2018, 02:07:03 PM »
That doesn't have to be sunrise, anyone who has roosters knows they can crow at any time in the night.  Anyone awake early enough knows that some birds start to sing as early as three and four in the morning... Some birds do their singing after dark.

Used to keep a few hens and a rooster. Can confirm. One of the many, many reasons I hate birds as an adult.

I'd argue that it really doesn't matter. This is particularly fine hair-splitting, in my opinion; "November 1st" starts at midnight. It's still Halloween until a bird in the area starts squawking. You've got 3-6 hours there for both things to be true.

I really didn't get the whole Law of Conservation of History stuff. Seemed like an awful lot of exposition for an idea that wasn't made clear enough to make a difference. I kinda hope it doesn't come back up again, or if it does, it's explained by someone who isn't contractually obligated to be mysterious.

Offline raidem

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Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
« Reply #14 on: January 23, 2018, 05:09:14 PM »
Quote
2 i'd argue wither the immortals in the mantle could truly be killed with Banefire. It may kill them in most all senses but I think the universe will still have that memory to try to fill up and since human memory has not truly forgotten those things they could reemerge.(this is why I think outsiders try to take on the constructs of dead deity) Plus the results would be catastrophic anyway, they are the source of all negative energy in the world(from 'the well' description) Without those forces contained in reality balance would have to be resettled somewhere.

I also argued this.
Quote
[12:32 PM] raidem: Another reason to support the idea that those prisoners within Demonreach have 'mantles/power'.  They exist here. They haven't been consigned to oblivion yet, unless oblivion is Demonreach but I'd guess not.  If there is an idea of those prisoners in Demonreach in the minds of humans, then 'they-in the most encompassing definition' couldn't be destroyed. Their idea would exist so the potential for something to assume this idea, their mask/mantle (in the nature of WOJL on human ideas creating mantles) remains.(edited)
EG argues the Prisoners don't have mantles.

Quote
Problem with that is it appears to be a "generic" bird instead of a specific species, so that in of itself could be a trap...
I didn't mean to suggest it was 'that' bird. Or that particular species.  I was just saying in general Harry heard a bird and he looked about and saw Kringle walking to him.  Therefore the wards were down, Halloween had ended.  It wasn't even the first bird or necessarily strict confirmation of the rule, as Mab had recently departed with both Ladies and had conversed with Kringle, etc.  The rule concerning first bird most likely aligns with the precise rule, but there still can be a bit of fuzziness.  Hey there might be a 'cosmic' bird that decides these things not one on Earth. In mythology there actually are roosters whose crowing mean things.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2018, 05:18:56 PM by raidem »
"That's it???  It's really that simple? 
LIES!  Damn lies!  It's a cover up!
WOJ: http://www.paranetonline.com/index.php/topic,21772.0.html