We learned in Skin Game that Lashiel is perfectly willing to "adjust" the perceptions of her host to get that host to act in the desired way.   We learned in Dead Beat that Lashiel was able to deceive Dresden even though he had not formally accepted the coin. 

So key question, were there instances between Dead Beat and White Night where Lashiel deliberately deceived or hid things from Dresden (using her illusion power) to keep some important information from him - or perhaps to create false information from a trusted source. 

Some possibilities:  Information that might identify "Cowl", information about necromancers/necromancy that bite him in Battle Ground, Something about the White Court?    No idea, but there do seem to be some possibility here.

is the next book Butcher writes going to be another Dresden, his alternate series (with the flying ships) or the strongly hinted YA series focused on Maggie. 

Jim said in an interview that Peace talks was originally going to be a turning point book comparable to Changes.  It turned out to be too complex and the book was split into Peace Talks and Battleground with Battleground being the turning point. 

After Changes, we had big dramatic changes including:
*  Molly on her own, damaged
*  Dresden working for Mab
*  Dresden dead, ghost and back
*  Red Court Destroyed
*  Major power imbalance rocking the supernatural world
*  Dresden comes into his own as Warden of Demonreach
*  Harry looses his job, his home, and his car

What will Battleground Bring in the sense of fundamental upsets in the "norm" comparable to what happened in changes?

Possibilities that have been hinted at or speculate on before
1) Ebeneezer dead -- and Dresden the new Blackstaff
2) The mortal world becomes "aware" of the supernatural and starts taking a very active role in the supernatural events
3) Open power struggle/splintering of the White Council
4) Public declaration of the existence of the Black Council - as an supernatural agency directly opposed to the White Council - and the White Council makes serious changes in response.
5) Thomas takes over the White Court as the White King.
6) Harry shows the world he can imprison beings in Demonreach - when they are NOT on the island
7) The Merlin dies
Paranet is established as a supernatural org under the accords and begins acting like a supernatural nation

What else am I missing?  Which of the above possibilities (including any new ones mentioned later) seem likely?

This is an important question.   They are an organization that did not exist a few years ago, but was clearly impacted to some extent by the war between the White Council and the Red Court.   They are certainly impacted by the post war chaos/Formor. 

Arguments in Favor
*  It is a way to establish themselves as a distinct power and set the stage for eventual accord status.  Right now they receive no protection from the accords beyond some (minor) indirect benefits from the White Council.  Given how hesitant the White Council is to act, those benefits are pretty minor today. 

*  It is the only way that can establish territory -- aka exclude supernatural predators - from their more strongly held territories.   The results of the Peace Talks may end up enshrining into the agreement valuable protections for the lesser powers -- protections that might not happen if they are not there speaking up.

Arguments Opposed
*  They are not signatories of the Accord.   This is true, but not sure it is relevant.  Logically any participant in a war should have a right to discuss how to end that war and I am sure the Accords allow for non-members to participate when relevant.  Proving relevance might be an issue, but the option must exist.    The Fey are very careful to consider all possibilities when creating something like the Accords. 

*  The lesser talents represented by the Paranet are already represented in the peace talks by the White Council.  This is arguably true as well, but the White Council relationship is more indirect than direct.  If the Paranet insisted, I suspect they can represent themselves.   

*  Representing themselves may establish precedents that prohibit the White Council from aiding lesser talents in the future.   This is a serious concerns. 

*  The visibility involved in attending the Peace Talks as representatives of the Paranet/lesser talents would simply be dangerous for the organization - providing a lot of unwanted attention and few if any benefits.   This is a fair argument - although people can differ on what gains they will get to justify this cost. 

*  Lesser powered individuals are weak -- and supernatural nations are predators.   Visibility = Danger for the representatives personally. 

As a general tendency, the forum generally assumes Mab is effectively all-knowing, all powerful, at least from Dresden's perspective.   

This thread is more focused on Mab's very real weaknesses.  I would argue that Mab is a key player, but nowhere close to all knowing/powerful. 

Strengths
*  Immortal
*  Fairly low powered god.  The combination of Lady, Queen and Mother is collectively equal to a strong god like Hades in power.  The Mother has the lion's share of that power, so Mab by herself has to be fairly weak in the god power scale.  I would argue that the very weakness of her god power is a strength as she suffers much less restrictions on the use of her power as compared to the more powerful gods.  The universe as described clearly has rules that severely limit the more powerful beings.  The Mother must be far more constrained than the Queen and the Lady should be less constrained than the Queen. 
*  She is Winter --- great power over cold, ice, winter, etc.   Fey are very nature focused, so expect she has great ability to influence anything winter related in nature. 
*  She is clearly very smart and capable
*  She can hear things spoken at night, especially if her name is spoken.  Great source of intelligence
*  She is a planner - always having multiple plans for every contingency
*  She commands the winter fey.  Mother may be stronger, but the queen rules day to day operations
*  She no doubt has a "bank" of favors accumulated to leverage as needed
*  She has a very capable 2nd in command in Lea -- as well as a capable (if young) Lady in Molly

Weaknesses
*  Mab shares all the weaknesses of Fey - cannot tell a lie, vulnerable to iron, bound by winter law, must honor agreements, cannot give gifts without payment. 
*  Mab is automatically countered to some extent by Summer. That is the role of Summer
*  Mab's nature is Winter Fey --> which means her reactions are somewhat predictable if you understand winter fey in general
*  Mab cannot harm a mortal directly, but must wait for them to make themselves vulnerable (via a deal) or use the Winter Knight. 
*  Mab is weaker in the summer months, which means enemies can time their threats to when she is least able to deal with them
*  Mab must devote a large chunk of her time and energy to defending the outer gates.  If she wishes to be elsewhere, she must assign a substitute (typically Lea). 
*  The Fey are not easily controlled - as evidenced by Mab's use of unyielding edicts (like nobody can go to the mortal world until dawn as seen in Cold Days) as more subtle/flexible rules are likely to be bypassed by clever fey seeking advantage.   I would also argue that the Molly as Lady short story also highlighted the restrictions Mab operates under via her conversation with Molly.  She asked Molly for alternatives and Molly could not provide them.  That implies pretty strongly that Mab is operating with some pretty significant constraints. 
*   There are MANY other powers comparable to Mab out there in the universe.   Her attention must be split to counter many of them and/or make sure their agenda does not hurt Mab's agenda.  For example, the entity behind the "worshipers" in the molly short story has nothing to do with the Outsiders, but was still a threat to Winter's interests.   Even though the Outsiders are clearly making a move, Mab cannot afford to ignore the other threats just in case they are acting while Mab is distracted. 
*  Mab has been surprised several times, so clearly her ability to find useful/critical information is limited.

What am I missing?

We left skin game with the fate of Murphy somewhat up in the air. 
*  She is clearly NOT going to be a knight of the cross - or at least the odds are a lot lower than they were prior to Skin Game
* She is clearly seriously injured and will have a long recovery -- and her final physical condition will be noticably "less combat effective" than previously was the state. 
*  Dresden and Murphy are dating seriously
*  Next book is Mirror Mirror, which is unlikely to involve This Murphy to any extent. 


So what Role with this character play in the remaining 8+ books?
*  Clearly Murphy will be a trusted confidant and adviser.  She is already playing that role in both Cold Days and Skin Game
*  Clearly Murphy will not be a cop or part of SI.  That ship has sailed and is not going to come back.
*  I would not be surprised if Dresden has some revelation about murphy in Mirror-Mirror. 


Possibilities  (with highest probability options on the top)
*  Murphy will become/continue as one of the top national/world leaders in the paranet -- and take the lead in integrating the Paranet efforts with that of the White Council.  She becomes a politically powerful figure.    [moderate probability - evidence is that she has already been doing this, jim has already foreshadowed that paranet will be more important, who else is will situated to do this?]

*  Dresden gets the cup to heal Murphy, restoring her her full physical abilities and/or some other magical means of achieving same outcome.  Becomes Dresden's full partner in his business and in life.   [moderate probability, but the outcome will not be a return to the Murphy of Cold Days.  There will be some significant changes in her life].

*  Murphy will become the support spouse for Dresden - take care of the home, family, advice, detective partner, support - basically Charity with cop skills added on.   [Low probability, although real possibility in the post injury environment] 

*  Murphy will work for the government supernatural agency [very low probability -- just not seeing it as Murphy would see it as betraying confidences with Dresden ] 

*   Murphy dies [very low probability - if only because it would not appreciably add to the story, at least in the next few books]

Other possibilities?

This will almost certainly repeat prior threads, but we are getting close to the publish date for peace talks.  Probably worth settling some key questions.

1) Whose "peace" is peace talks about.    Is this about ending the war with the Red Court?

On one level, this question seems stupid.  The Red court is destroyed.    But on another level, this question is very valid.   The war was NOT between the Red court and the White Council.   The war was between ALLIANCES.  On one side is the White council, a few informed human organizations, Summer and Winter.   On the other is the Red Court (destroyed), the Black Court, the White Court and probably some other unnamed lesser allies.

Under the accords, I suspect a formal peace treaty is required to end this state of war, at least from the perspective of Winter and Summer.  I suspect all the warring powers would prefer that the "state of war under the Accords" be ended.    The Accords apply completely different rules to nations "at war" than to nations "not at war" and those rules probably matter a lot to many of the participants.  Therefore it is of considerable value to formally end the war under the Accords. 




2) If the peace talks are about ending the war, what is the problem?

Again, in theory the peace talks should be easy.  The White court wants peace and would be perfectly happy to return to the status quo.   I mean that seriously - the White Court has done very well in the war and they are likely to retain most of their gains in power and territory by a peace treaty.  Previous statements are that the black court is not a major power any more and I doubt any other formal allies wield great power.   So the only real power opposing the White Council's alliance wants peace.      In theory - this should make peace talks a slam dunk. 

But it is pretty obvious that the Peace Talks will not be easy.  So why not.   The answer was pretty clearly stated in Ghost Story and in Aftermath:  Power Vacuum.  The reality is that the peace talks are not about ending the war, they are about dividing the spoils.   And just like in WW1 or WW2, there are a ton of nations that played some minor role or jumped in at the last second and now want their own bit of the spoils.  So these nations are participating in the peace talks to get their share of the goodies. 

Then there are other nations like the Formor which simple took advantage of the power vacuum to grab territory/people.   So any division of the spoils means the war powers have to enforce that decision on the Formor and other supernatural nations that grabbed some spoils even though they were not part of the war.    These nations either need their "grabs" to be tacitly approved (aka - lack of protest = acceptance) or they need to managed (aka - included in the talks and convinced to support the collective division of spoils) or they need to driven out (another war).   

I suspect the Formor are there as the White Council cannot ignore their activity  (aka - grabbing spoils), but at the same time the White Council does not want another war.   So trying to manage the Formor via Peace talks is the only option that might give the White Council what they want.     I doubt many in the Senior Council believe this happy outcome is likely, but it is perfectly clear that most "lay wizards" are desperately tired of the war and willing to accept nearly anything that looks vaguely like a decent peace.     

These are some events that I expect to see in future Dresden books
*  Kincaide wielding one of the swords
*  Dresden in a tux, about to get married.     (not predicting if he actually gets married --- that just screams out for bride killed at the alter....)
*  Michael finding out that Molly is the Winter Lady -- in the middle of a battle where it comes out of her own mouth when she as she talks smack to some bad guy (forgetting her father was nearby....)
*  Ebenezer dying and Harry picking up the Blackstaff - and the job of Blackstaff - from his bloody corpse
*  Harry introducing Maggie and Thomas to Ebenezer on Christmas day -- probably in the same book where Ebenezer dies
*  Harry calling the head of the federal agency who monitors magic to invite them to some major magical conflict - and he got the number from the events in mirror mirror.  Incidentally I expect Stalling to be a member of this agency....   His name has been mentioned way too often to NOT have a future role to play. 
*  Harry appears as godparent when Thomas presents his child to the White Court.    [in many ways functioning as Maleficent in the sleeping beauty...someone very scary that shows up to the party].  Probably a short story, but you have to admit it would be FUN.