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Messages - dspringer1

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76
DF Spoilers / Modern Memes and Harry's magic
« on: March 22, 2018, 10:13:43 PM »
One of the themes of the series is that the white council wizards are conservative old biddies who are having difficulty adapting to the changing world.  Harry being the exception.  The classic is Harry mocking Morgan for creating the 'star wars rip-off" hologram of the world to show danger spots. 

So my question is this.  What "very modern" element of the world should Harry leverage in his next magical innovation.  Cutting edge science?  Leapfrog off a technology?  Cultural ah-ha? 

My personal item would be Harry creating a magical sensor using a cell phone case -- so it basically looks like he is taking selfies while actually doing a detailed scan of the magical nature of the area.    Or alternately, using cell phones "connectivity" to provide a structure to a complex spell that needs to effect a very large area. 


77
The criticism I heard rings true.  It just tries to introduce too many complex characters and thus does not really do justice to any one of them.    The general argument is that Butcher should have either done this book with fewer characters -- or begin with smaller scale story to introduce well a number of the characters first and then bring the remaining characters in during the course of book 2 or 3.  Based on how diverse the characters are, I would have thought a split story in book 1 (like he did in the fury series) would have worked well. 

78
DF Spoilers / Re: Will Harry get back to basics?
« on: March 21, 2018, 10:52:27 PM »
My logic is as follows.   Harry has the staff which is a general purpose foci for manipulating elements.  It also has "ok but not great' shield and force ring capability.  Harry is a bit paranoid right now, so he is going to build some additional foci pretty quick.   The key question is "what do I build first?"

1) Does he build "better" versions of what is just ok in the staff -- ie force rings/shield bracelet.

2) Does he instead build new capabilities.

Harry has had loads of time to think through this, so we can safely assume that he has a well though out plan.   My guess is that he will do the following (in priority order)
1) New "spelled" leather coat to protect him against bullets and blades.  Basic always on protection is essential and saved his life many times. 
2) A blasting rod that can handle either fire or ice type attacks.  He needs a good focused attack foci for ranged combat. 
3) he will create a custom shield bracelet, simply because that capability gets heavily used and his staff is clearly inferior to his old shield bracelet. 

After these three items, the possibilities really expand and become almost impossible to predict. 

79
DF Spoilers / Re: Just a guess about Peace Talks
« on: February 16, 2018, 11:35:17 PM »
Some misunderstandings here are the Arbiter position.   

To be an arbiter, you must be an member of the accords.  Which means either you are a representative of a supernatural nation or a individual freeholding lord like the Archive or Marcone.   By definition, you are either a power, or backed by a power in the supernatural community.

In this context, the arbiter will enforce the conditions of the arbitration.  By that I mean Keep the Peace while negotiating and/or enforcing the terms of a dual.  In this they are backed up by the weight of public opinion (at least the public opinion of the other accorded powers) who have an interest in enforcing the rules.  This is a dangerous commitment at times, which is why many of the lesser powers do not try to act as arbiters. 

The arbiter is NOT signing up to enforce the agreements that are the result of an arbitrated negotiation.  In the real world, if the US hosts peace talks between France and Vietnam, they are not signing up to force the two participants to do what they promised to do.   The supernatural world is no different.   

If Marcone is hosting the peace talks, then all he signed up to do is provide a suitable venue, protect the participants and severely punish/kill any that disrupt the peace talks (in some way contrary to the agreed procedures).  That might be a commitment beyond his capability to deliver on, but the presumption is that --- as a free standing lord - he can deliver it.  If he fails, his status as a free standing lord would be put at serious risk.  Of course if he succeeds, then that also lends a lot to his reputation.   


80
DF Spoilers / Re: The Watchers
« on: February 15, 2018, 04:28:50 PM »
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I do believe Jim said that nobody knows of their existence.  They must be a reasonably large scale operation.  Why?  Because within virtually hours of a video of a werewolf being recorded they showed up and took the evidence.  That's either luck, or they are very good at locating this kind of thing.  To be that good usually requires a pretty good sized network of informants an intelligence gathering capabilities.

a) The supernatural nations themselves do this type of policing - and Harry himself suggested that they were the ones that took the tape and insured people considered it a fraud.

b) Anonymity and "a large scale operation" do not go together.  Any large scale operation would be known to the supernatural nations as they do monitor governments.   And the library of congress' budget is public knowledge. 

c) Human nations do not believe supernaturals exist - or they would act differently.  If they do not believe supernatural exist, then they will not spend the billions necessary to fund a supernatural focused agency.  And if they did, they would have recruited every black cat captain in the various police forces - which means Murphy would have worked for them years ago.   Hell the Church knows they exist, but their organization is still a skeleton organization as described by the good father. 



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Why just a few hundred years?  In Cannon humans have been killing wizards, and supernatural beings for a really long time.  It's only in more modern times that humans stopped believing in it.  Wouldn't it make sense that over a long period of time these groups grew, and modernized with the times, and what we have now is an end result of that growth?

It is a annex of the library of congress - which means a few hundred years old at most.  Not saying that naturals have not been monitoring supernatural for longer, but this particular organization has probably not been around longer than that.  The agency was almost certainly instigated by some people "in the know".

Keep in mind that intelligence agencies of any kind are a recent thing (few hundred years).  Diplomats as a specific organization have only been around about 500 years.  Prior to that (and outside the church), there really was just the nobility and the merchant princes and guilds (which is basically what the white council is).  Agencies simply did not exist. 

81
DF Spoilers / Re: The Watchers
« on: February 14, 2018, 06:15:12 PM »
Ok there are a whole lot of assumptions people are making behind their arguments.   Lets call them out: 

1) There is a human (vanilla) agency that is collecting information on supernaturals  (cannon).  it is part of the library of congress.  There are also mentions of other agencies like the Ventori which are mostly vanilla humans that monitor supernaturals (also cannon)

2) This agency has monitored supernaturals for hundreds of years (thousand of years)

3) This agency has a great deal of knowledge of the supernatural community. 

4) This agency has access to 'black op" resources

5) This agency has some agenda beyond passive collection of information

6) This agency has access to significant amounts of useful magic (directly or via hired help)

These are a lot of assumptions and depending on how you answer them, you get a very different impact on the Dresden world.   I think (historically) that most of these assumptions are wrong. 

My personal assumption would be that this library of congress group has been around for several hundred years.  They monitor supernatural activity, but are NOT part of the supernatural community.   They have a fair bit of information, but probably get a fair number of facts wrong, and are not able to do much in the magic department.  They probably have some texts and some stuff that does magic.   The overall organization is small, but they have "some" informants in a number of places and ties to other organizations like the Ventori.   The advent of the internet combined with the paranet has probably been a boom to them from the standpoint of making a bunch of fairly reliable information available to them.  They are unlikely to have any detailed knowledge of any supernatural nation state or a lot of specific information on magic.   They are NOT seen as a serious threat by the major (or moderate) supernatural nations, although many of these nations know these organizations exist. 

There are a number of comparable groups out there, but not as many as you think.  I think the Ventori are probably more dangerous (and more informed) than all these government or private groups combined.   I do think the effectiveness, size and scope of this organization has increased significantly in the last decade or two as technology really boosted the info gathering abilities of these groups.   I think the actions of the Formor have pushed these organizations to become more of a player (to defend US citizens if nothing else).   

82
DF Spoilers / Major Opens in the Series
« on: February 14, 2018, 05:48:36 PM »
This talk of Peace Talks got me thinking.  There are a lot of big opens outstanding that have to be answered in the next five books.  Here is my personal list

Political Questions
1) What is the Grey Council and how does it work.  How will Harry work with the Grey Council?
2) What is happening with the Paranet and how is it evolving?
3) How will the White Council/Harry/Paranet deal with the threat posed by the Formor.  How will that threat evolve?
4) How are the other supernatural races going to get pulled into the conflict?  We know the outsiders want them distracted, so some level of involvement (if only hiding) is going to happen.
5) What has happened to the White Council?   How is it functioning (or not) right now? 
6) What will happen between with the cooperative agreement between Marcone, the White Court and the Paranet to defend Chicago?
7) What is the next stage in the Outsiders' plan of attack?  Presume it is the Formor or maybe the dragon, but that is just guesses? 
8 )  What is happening internally with the Fallen?  Are they going to have their own civil war pitting Nik's side vs outsider allied side vs other fallen strongly aligned with neither?
9) Will Summer closely cooperate with Winter or stay isolated now that the Outsider's play is obvious (at least to Mab)?



Personal Questions
1) How is Harry and Molly's relationship going to evolve?
2) What will be Harry's new home and lifestyle be in Chicago? Is he going to find an apartment and go back to being a detective or will it be something very different
3) How will the relationship between Harry and Mab evolve?
4) what will happen when Michael finds out Molly is the Winter Lady?
5) what consequences will there be for Harry within the White Council for his actions in Changes - destroying the Red Court, becoming Winter Knight?
6) Role of Murphy going forward:  Lover?  Marriage?  Advisor?  Politician?  Other? 
7) Toot is evolving into someone different -- a comrade perhaps rather than simply a helpful sidekick. 



Magic Stuff
1) Those holy relics he got from Hades tomb
2) the relic that Nik has (the cup)
3) the progress/scope/impact of nemfection
4) Harry is supposed to get trained in shapeshifting
5) Will there be a new Knight of the Cross soon?
6) Harry keeps recruiting more fey minions.  How big will his army get? 
7) Will harry be able to imprison people into Demonreach who are not on the island. 

83
DF Spoilers / Re: New Relations and Kumori
« on: February 14, 2018, 05:27:08 PM »
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Marcone's sister would be interesting... 

It is a connection, but not sure why it would be interesting.  Harry would have no emotional connection to Marcone's sister, so not sure why that connection would add anything.   Yes maybe it puts Marcone in the position of supporting Kumori, but that is easy enough to do in a hundred different ways.  Finally, Marcone has no history of magical ability. 



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I could see Kumori being Maggie's twin sister.  Would throw Harry for a loop when he see's a woman who looks exactly like his mom, and also piss him off that he was never told about her from Eb, who had been protecting the one daughter he had left. 

Possible - but it is more of a physical connection than an emotional one.  It is a blood relative (which is important to Harry) and the appearance might throw him for a loop briefly, but that is it.  But it is hard to argue that the connection would really throw Harry off his game in any significant way.  Also, Kumori is an apprentice while Maggie was a full wizard when harry was born.  Very unlikely Maggie's twin sister would still be an apprentice at age 60+. 



The only reason to create a connection is because that connection has some important meaning to someone critical to the story.  Otherwise it is a distraction from the story.  And since any connection (even the ones I proposed) are pretty unlikely, that connection has to be really important to the story JB wants to tell.   It creates a high bar.   

84
DF Spoilers / New Relations and Kumori
« on: February 14, 2018, 12:34:48 AM »
Coincidence is one of the classics of fiction.  And a common coincidence is that person X is really an unknown blood relation of Y (someone very different) -- with that connection discovered at some dramatic moment. 

Of course, JB has used this already with Thomas, but I think there is another good prospect that has not been explored: Kumori.    All the speculation around Kumori is around "which female character introduced in the series is really Kumori".   I have to admit that none of the theories seemed very probable to me.  I agree that there is some connection there, but I think we are asking the wrong question.   I want to change the question to:  "Who among the people Harry knows is Kumori related to? "

When you ask the question that way, you get an easy answer loaded with all sorts of strong emotional connections with Dresden and many of Dresden's allies.      Well you get two answers.

1) Dresden's older sister would obviously have the most powerful effect on Dresden himself.   We also have had some foreshadowing that other siblings might exist.   This is not my favorite simply because it was done before with Thomas.  JB does not repeat things often. 

2) Charity has a powerful magical bloodline.   If she had a sister or close cousin who did receive magical training (aka - Kumori), that would also create a very powerful connection to Harry, Michael, Charity, Molly/Winter Lady, and indirectly to all the other human allies of Dresden.  It is a connection that the Outsiders would have every incentive to leverage against Dresden.  It is also a connection that is likely to blindside Harry simply because he trusts the Carpenters so much.   This idea has possibilities!  :) 




85
DF Spoilers / Re: Grey Council
« on: January 30, 2018, 11:35:37 PM »
Interesting theory.   My caution on accepting it is that the grey council should be made up of wizards.   100% wizards.  After all, it is a renegade faction of wizards operating in secret against their own government.   

I recognize that Odin was in the battle at Changes, but nothing but Harry's assumption indicated that the attackers were all grey council.  To me it feels like some grey council members plus important allies.   

The other caution is that Harry did not know anything physically distinctive about the wizards that came to his assistance.   River Shoulders would have been visually obvious as he is much larger than a human. 

86
DF Spoilers / Re: Harry Is Growing Up
« on: January 30, 2018, 11:22:25 PM »
Agree with free will and respect for wardens role, although he still sees the flaws in wardens. 

I would argue that he is much less likely to accept the surface explanation for why people/beings do what they do.  He understands that people hide their true motivations, that there are levels of plots, and that great powers influence the actions of individuals without their knowledge. 

He also recognizes that the consequences of his actions are also far more than the obvious.   Does not mean he will avoid doing something right, but he thinks carefully now how to minimize unintended consequences. 

87
DF Spoilers / Re: What clues will we get from Peace Talks?
« on: January 23, 2018, 05:28:12 PM »
Peace talks should define the shape of the conflict in the next few books - what replaces the war with the red court.   I am personally expecting another war to start.  Wars are great from the perspective of the Outsiders as they are a great distraction and prevent concerted action against their interests.     I expect this to be a wider war than the war with the red court - Formor, vampires, and several other nations on one side.     And ideally this war will start in some way that splinters the white council - or at least ideally from the outsider standpoint. 

88
DF Spoilers / Re: What happened to the rest of the Alpha's?
« on: November 16, 2017, 06:14:50 PM »
I agree with Mr. Death that college groups split up.   They have careers that take them to different parts of the country.  It is natural that the group gets geographically disbursed. 

The more interesting question to me is what happens next.  Given the formor attacks, it is very likely that "some" of the alphas that moved away have become involved in the fight against the Formor.   "some" might even have been captured by the formor.   Add to this the fact that all of these individuals knew Harry rather well - and Harry started the Paranet -- means that heavy Alpha alumni involvement in the paranet is almost a certainity. 

Given heavy involvement and given the fact that the Alphas are probably some of the most dangerous (combat wise) members of the paranet, the odds approach certainty that the Alpha alumni network is one of the cornerstones of Paranet self defense.   

That has to become useful one day for Harry.  :)


89
DF Spoilers / Re: Marcone Manipulating Harry.
« on: November 16, 2017, 06:06:52 PM »
Marcone did not ask Harry to save the person, so no real favor exists.   Harry could see that Marcone was using Harry to save his person.  Harry choose to do so -- but arguably he would have done so anyway even if the person had no ties to Marcone.  The method might have been different, but the outcome probably the same. 

90
DF Spoilers / Re: Unsolved Mystery Book3 Cowl
« on: November 14, 2017, 11:21:39 PM »

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4) I wonder if the black council expected some other gift from Lea -- although the knights sword was probably welcomed...  That they would get a return gift was clearly known.

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Since Bianca turned around and gave it to Mavra, I can only assume that they knew it was coming.

Why, that presumes way too much future knowledge.  The easiest explanation is that they had something else in mind for Mavra.  However, the sword was a much better gift on many levels so they just changed the plan.   After all, Mavra is already working with black council and did not really need a super special pre-nemfected gift like the dragon and lea did. 

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