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The Dresden Files => DF Spoilers => Topic started by: groinkick on August 23, 2021, 06:37:14 AM

Title: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: groinkick on August 23, 2021, 06:37:14 AM
Mab told Harry that she and Uriel had a common enemy when Arctis Tor was attacked, and Harry believed it was Thorned Namshiel.  However Harry, who is pretty darn good with fire didn't think he could have done that kind of damage even with Hellfire, in the heart if Winter.  Has it actually been confirmed that Thorned Namshiel was the culprit?

Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Con on August 23, 2021, 06:47:15 AM
*shrug* Time Travel, Alt Universe, MANTLE
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: psuedonym on August 23, 2021, 08:27:20 AM
I have long thought this! There is no reason to believe it was TN, lots of coin holders use magic, i forget her name but she is Tessas second, she uses fire against Ivy in SmF why not Arctus Tor?
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on August 23, 2021, 09:59:21 AM
Mab told Harry that she and Uriel had a common enemy when Arctis Tor was attacked, and Harry believed it was Thorned Namshiel.  However Harry, who is pretty darn good with fire didn't think he could have done that kind of damage even with Hellfire, in the heart if Winter.  Has it actually been confirmed that Thorned Namshiel was the culprit?

Maybe he couldn't but then Harry isn't a fallen angel, there might be some things he just has no knowledge of.  Harry also constantly talks about older wizards who just through sheer experience and study are way more powerful than he is, well Thorny has thousands of years if not more on him.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 23, 2021, 08:30:53 PM
Thorned Namshiel was able to take Marcone from basically no magic to doing things Harry couldn't without major effort.  A host with a stronger baseline magical ability would likely be able to pull off some impressive feats.

I forget why we assumed that Namshiel was the prime suspect.  Probably because Uriel gave Harry soulfire during his first spat with him?  Also, Harry puts the spotlight on him for it during SmF, I think.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 23, 2021, 08:38:51 PM
You know because Jim told you so. It's in Small Favor.  It's called back at the end of Battle Ground when Harry makes Mab aware that Marcone is hag ridden  by calling him Sir Baron.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Ed0517 on August 26, 2021, 03:15:10 AM
I think the assumption is based on who could be that good to use that much fire in Winter. TN seems to qualify, where few do. One question, though - when did Harry turn in Lasciel? Could Hannah Ascher, a good fire mage even before taking up a coin, have picked her up and been the fire user? Lasciel is not as good as TN, but Hannah starts way above Marcone.   
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: TheCuriousFan on August 26, 2021, 08:28:30 AM
I think the assumption is based on who could be that good to use that much fire in Winter. TN seems to qualify, where few do. One question, though - when did Harry turn in Lasciel? Could Hannah Ascher, a good fire mage even before taking up a coin, have picked her up and been the fire user? Lasciel is not as good as TN, but Hannah starts way above Marcone.
He turned Lasciel in after White Night, the book after Proven Guilty, she then took it up some time (implied to be a few weeks or so) after Changes.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on August 26, 2021, 02:12:52 PM
He turned Lasciel in after White Night, the book after Proven Guilty, she then took it up some time (implied to be a few weeks or so) after Changes.

After Changes or at the end of Proven Guilty?  Just before he turned the coin over to Father Forthill at the end of Proven Guilty he thought he heard Lash, that scared him so he got rid of the coin.  In Changes it is implied that it was Lasciel that goaded him into suicide, the coin still could have been locked away in Forthill's office.  I don't think she affected Harry after that, implied or otherwise.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 26, 2021, 02:26:15 PM
I think the assumption is based on who could be that good to use that much fire in Winter. TN seems to qualify, where few do. One question, though - when did Harry turn in Lasciel? Could Hannah Ascher, a good fire mage even before taking up a coin, have picked her up and been the fire user? Lasciel is not as good as TN, but Hannah starts way above Marcone.
Thorned Namshiel used Hellfire to power the device used to trap Ivy at the Shedd Aquarium and to capture Marcone at the panic room. Evidently Lucifer gifted it to him, which let Uriel balance the scales by giving Harry Soul Fire to smite him. It's established that the ring is Hellfire early in Small Favor when Harry examines the site with Murphy.
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“You gotta think that maybe there’s a matter of balance, here,” he said. “Maybe one archangel invested his strength in this situation overtly and immediately. Maybe another one was just quieter about it. Thinking long-term. Maybe he already gave you a hand.”
While any of the Denarians may be able to use Magic only one, other than Thorned Namshiel does, and she was taught by Namshiel.
Quote
The Knights carried away Namshiel’s coin, so Tessa has lost her sorcery teacher.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Snark Knight on August 26, 2021, 04:26:16 PM
While any of the Denarians may be able to use Magic only one, other than Thorned Namshiel does, and she was taught by Namshiel.

Two, actually. Rosanna favours Hellfire, and Tessa seems to have a broader range of abilities.

Lasciel with a future host traveling back in time to attack Arctis Tor is theoretically possible to keep in mind, too, but has essentially nothing to support it.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 26, 2021, 05:11:36 PM
Most if not all the Denarians use hellfire, don't they?  It's a standard tool for them.  (I want to say that Magog's fists once glowed with it, but can't find it at the moment.  Similar with Deirdre's hair tentacles.)

The implication in SmF was that the hellfire pentagram was powered by hellfire from Lucy directly.  Namshiel's ritual was to point out where to put it and to contain it.


While any of the Denarians may be able to use Magic only one, other than Thorned Namshiel does, and she was taught by Namshiel.
Cassius does also.  In fact many mook Denarians use magic.
Quote from: SmF Ch.33
Seven of them were going after Ivy with magic, and she was countering them. All of them.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 26, 2021, 07:43:32 PM
All the Denarian's are magical by definition. Each has the magic contained in their alternate form. But only two use conventional magic, Lartessa and Namshiel.
Quote
Seven of them were going after Ivy with magic, and she was countering them. All of them.

Magog1 had charged her as he had me, but she hadn’t slammed him to a stop with a brick wall. She’d trapped him inside some kind of frictionless bubble, and he was spinning uselessly in circles half an inch off the floor,
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Deirdre’s2 tangle of living locks danced with purple Saint Elmo’s fire
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Rosanna3 launched more traditional lances of flame from her open palms
Quote
though the two more physical Denarians4&5 who strained to force their way past the barrier of snapping sparks that formed whenever they tried to get close had far less luck. The Hellmaid’s flames scorched them badly.
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The sixth, a wizened little thing that looked like a caricature of a woman carved from a dried tree root, seemed to be holding the end of a rope of liquid shadow that curled like a hungry serpent, darting now and then toward Ivy’s head.(possibly Cassius's coin)
Quote
But mostly she faced an amused-looking Tessa, who, apparently just for the fun of it, threw another thunderbolt at her now and again. That told me something right there. It told me Tessa was no punk sorceress.
This by the way is how Marcone becoming a White Council level Wizard is  justified. This is precisely what Namshiel did for Lartessa. 

I assume all their magic draws on hellfire including Marcone. But none of them could have thrown hellfire at Arctis Tor without help.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on August 26, 2021, 08:30:36 PM
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I assume all their magic draws on hellfire including Marcone. But none of them could have thrown hellfire at Arctis Tor without help.

You are ignoring the fact that Namshiel is a fallen angel, even if he isn't an archangel he can wield power beyond the comprehension of most.. So yes, Namshiel could do it without help in my opinion, angels without restraint [the Fallen don't play by the rules, that is why they are fallen] has the power to do it without help.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 26, 2021, 11:07:36 PM
All the Denarian's are magical by definition. Each has the magic contained in their alternate form. But only two use conventional magic, Lartessa and Namshiel.This by the way is how Marcone becoming a White Council level Wizard is  justified. This is precisely what Namshiel did for Lartessa. 

I assume all their magic draws on hellfire including Marcone. But none of them could have thrown hellfire at Arctis Tor without help.
I'm a bit confused.  More than Namshiel and Tessa are casting spells in the passages you quoted.  Are you saying that while all the Denarians are capable of using magic, and some of them actually do use magic, but only Namshiel is good enough at magic to be an Arctis Tor candidate?
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: vincentric on August 27, 2021, 12:35:43 AM
You are ignoring the fact that Namshiel is a fallen angel, even if he isn't an archangel he can wield power beyond the comprehension of most.. So yes, Namshiel could do it without help in my opinion, angels without restraint [the Fallen don't play by the rules, that is why they are fallen] has the power to do it without help.

The Fallen are allowed to cheat but any cheating they do the other angels are allowed to balance. If they were throwing around their personal power directly, Uriel and his companions would be allowed to directly interfere. If they had added their power to the Archive, I think she wins the battle outright.

But there is a loophole. Any magic that the Denarians are using is either part of their of their merged forms or an expansion of their host's talent. Given a host with some talent they can teach them magic. But they obviously need a minimum level of talent to work with or else Nic would be a White Council level wizard by now. Thorned Namshiel is probably the best magic user of the Fallen and thus was able to teach Lartessa and Marcone. And even still we're probably only talking an average White Council wizard level not a senior council member or a powerful warden. They're scary because they have superhuman physical abilities to go along with their magic.   
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 27, 2021, 12:54:48 AM
I know what Jim wrote and being a literalist, I believe him unless he says otherwise. If he tells me Namshiel did it, then he did it.
I'm a bit confused.  More than Namshiel and Tessa are casting spells in the passages you quoted.  Are you saying that while all the Denarians are capable of using magic, and some of them actually do use magic, but only Namshiel is good enough at magic to be an Arctis Tor candidate?
No Denarian is that good. I don't read everyone as casting spells.  We differ on what we read.

Mab tells you that she and Uriel had a common enemy that day.  Who died that was killed by a Knight? I guess Jim needs to be more explicit. YMMV.

Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 27, 2021, 01:08:03 AM
I know what Jim wrote and being a literalist, I believe him unless he says otherwise. If he tells me Namshiel did it, then he did it.

No Denarian is that good. I don't read everyone as casting spells.  We differ on what we read.

Mab tells you that she and Uriel had a common enemy that day.  Who died that was killed by a Knight? I guess Jim needs to be more explicit. YMMV.
I'm still lost.  No Denarian is good enough to do the hellfire at Arctis Tor, but Namshiel did it?

I'm of the camp that Namshiel was likely the source of the hellfire in the attack on Arctis Tor, but I don't follow what you're trying to say.



Perhaps we are differing on what we call spells.  I'd call a specific directed instance of magical energy a spell, so things like the shadowy serpent thing and Rosanna's lances of fire qualify as spells.  The line gets a bit blurrier with the energy surrounding Deirdre's hair.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 27, 2021, 02:03:19 AM
I'm saying Thorned Namshiel was gifted power by Lucifer.  It's the first instance of the proxy war between Lucifer and Uriel.  At the start of PG Michael is sent out of town. His purpose was to see that Eb and the others get to the second trial in time to keep Harry from coming to blows with the Council.  This proxy war is what Harry is angry about in the Chapel in the hospital where he meets Jake at the end of Small Favor.
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And Your angels aren’t allowed to stick their toes in unless the bad guys do it first. But I’ve been running some figures in my head, and when the Denarians pulled up those huge Signs, they had to have a lot of power to do it. A lot of power. More than I could ever have had, even with Lasciel. Archangel power. And I can only think of one of those guys who would have been helping that crew.”
Of the seven Lartessa is the one to look at.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: TheCuriousFan on August 27, 2021, 02:08:28 AM
After Changes or at the end of Proven Guilty?  Just before he turned the coin over to Father Forthill at the end of Proven Guilty he thought he heard Lash, that scared him so he got rid of the coin.  In Changes it is implied that it was Lasciel that goaded him into suicide, the coin still could have been locked away in Forthill's office.  I don't think she affected Harry after that, implied or otherwise.
You're getting your timelines muddled there. The coin was under his lab before PG and it stayed there until the end of book 9 (WN). In book 12 (Changes) it has been several years since book 9 so it would be exceedingly unlikely that Forthill hadn't passed the coin along by then.

I'm still lost.  No Denarian is good enough to do the hellfire at Arctis Tor, but Namshiel did it?

I'm of the camp that Namshiel was likely the source of the hellfire in the attack on Arctis Tor, but I don't follow what you're trying to say.



Perhaps we are differing on what we call spells.  I'd call a specific directed instance of magical energy a spell, so things like the shadowy serpent thing and Rosanna's lances of fire qualify as spells.  The line gets a bit blurrier with the energy surrounding Deirdre's hair.
Namshiel is the magic nerd of the denarians that's part of why he's singled out as the prime suspect even though Rosanna's thing is fire, fire and more fire.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Ed0517 on August 27, 2021, 03:19:29 AM

Namshiel is the magic nerd of the denarians that's part of why he's singled out as the prime suspect even though Rosanna's thing is fire, fire and more fire.

He is, and rightfully so, I am just wondering if you had a more advanced student - like an Ascher - could she have had a coin before Lasciel? Some other warlock? it might not take a TN to coach them up to a lot of power.  kind of like if you had a couple of foreign exchange students at Harvard - the guy who is 5'6" 140, you could bring in Belichick, he isn't likely to make the football team, even Division III. The 6'5" rugby player can likely start at outside linebacker by Saturday with minimal input.   
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 27, 2021, 04:13:24 AM
I'm saying Thorned Namshiel was gifted power by Lucifer.  It's the first instance of the proxy war between Lucifer and Uriel.  At the start of PG Michael is sent out of town. His purpose was to see that Eb and the others get to the second trial in time to keep Harry from coming to blows with the Council.  This proxy war is what Harry is angry about in the Chapel in the hospital where he meets Jake at the end of Small Favor.

Of the seven Lartessa is the one to look at.
Ah okay, yeah Lucy put his two cents in for this operation for sure.  I had the impression that he did it as a one-time thing (so Namshiel would have had to go back to the well to pull off another hellfire circle) as opposed to Uriel giving Harry access to soulfire in general.

The Archive gave Tessa half her attention in the Shedd, but I'd imagine that calculus would have changed if Namshiel had also been there slinging spells.  On a magical strength scale, I'd rate it:  Namshiel > Tessa >> rest of the Denarians

Getting back to your point, is the theory Lucifier-powered hellfire at Arctis Tor delivered by Namshiel?  Namshiel got a permanent power boost from Lucy that made him able to throw that much fire around?
The first is frightening for the implications that Lucy is taking sides in the Outside v Inside conflict.  The second is frightening for the consequences with Marcone.



As far as Lasciel (or arguably Anduriel) as the whisperer in Changes, that was long after Harry had turned over her coin.  Regardless, during PG, Lasciel's coin was still in Harry's basement floor.  Without time shenanigans, it couldn't have been Hannah Asher at Arctis Tor.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on August 27, 2021, 04:26:20 AM
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You're getting your timelines muddled there. The coin was under his lab before PG and it stayed there until the end of book 9 (WN). In book 12 (Changes) it has been several years since book 9 so it would be exceedingly unlikely that Forthill hadn't passed the coin along by then.
My timeline isn't muddled..  You are right it was White Night when Forthill got the coin, however it isn't a stretch to think the coin might sill be locked in his office as of Changes.. We have no clue as to how frequent the coins collected by the Knight are picked up..  We do know it was Lasciel whispering to Harry in Changes which speaks to her coin not being very far away, that is my point.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 27, 2021, 05:08:26 AM
I doubt that Namshiel got a permanent boost and I could be altogether wrong about Lucifer helping him in PG.  But Jim has done everything but set up a flashing neon sign pointing at Namshiel. And I doubt Jim will revisit it in any case. That Arc is finished. The only real puzzle left will be resolved in the time travel book.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 27, 2021, 05:31:21 AM
My timeline isn't muddled..  You are right it was White Night when Forthill got the coin, however it isn't a stretch to think the coin might sill be locked in his office as of Changes.. We have no clue as to how frequent the coins collected by the Knight are picked up..  We do know it was Lasciel whispering to Harry in Changes which speaks to her coin not being very far away, that is my point.
WoJ is that distance isn’t really a factor in how the fallen operate in their coins.

Quote
What’s the range of influence for the Fallen in the coins? How far can they extend themselves away from their Denarian hosts?
Oh, their range is very, very limited, to this one little planet. :D
2011 DC signing


I doubt that Namshiel got a permanent boost and I could be altogether wrong about Lucifer helping him in PG.  But Jim has done everything but set up a flashing neon sign pointing at Namshiel. And I doubt Jim will revisit it in any case. That Arc is finished. The only real puzzle left will be resolved in the time travel book.
The time travel elements in PG do need to be resolved still. Like you said, the time travel book is coming. I’d imagine the events of PG are a major focus. (Also my guess is future!Harry is the source of the Gatekeeper’s message getting Harry on Molly’s trail.)
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 27, 2021, 06:16:23 AM
The time travel elements in PG do need to be resolved still. Like you said, the time travel book is coming. I’d imagine the events of PG are a major focus. (Also my guess is future!Harry is the source of the Gatekeeper’s message getting Harry on Molly’s trail.)
I don't imagine it will be and Rashid doesn't need Harry's help for that. Ask yourself why Jim made the choice to have LC be broken.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: groinkick on August 27, 2021, 07:09:12 AM
I don't imagine it will be and Rashid doesn't need Harry's help for that. Ask yourself why Jim made the choice to have LC be broken.

With the attack on Arctis Tor, Little Chicago, and the Corner Hounds I'm wondering if there is going to be a time travel book where Harry is going to many different points in history, chasing someone else who's trying to mess things up.

Plot twist:  There was Hellfire, but the one who nuked Mab's army was Dresden using Soulfire.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 27, 2021, 01:54:56 PM
With the attack on Arctis Tor, Little Chicago, and the Corner Hounds I'm wondering if there is going to be a time travel book where Harry is going to many different points in history, chasing someone else who's trying to mess things up.

Plot twist:  There was Hellfire, but the one who nuked Mab's army was Dresden using Soulfire.
Is there really another kind of time travel story?
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 27, 2021, 03:17:55 PM
I don't imagine it will be and Rashid doesn't need Harry's help for that. Ask yourself why Jim made the choice to have LC be broken.
Does he need it, no, but it's more helpful that way for Rashid to be well out of the way of breaking any Laws.
Quote from: PG Ch.6

"Hindsight," I murmured.  "You mean he went to the future for this?"
"Well," Bob hedged.  "That would break one of the Laws, so probably not.  But he might have sent himself a message from there, or maybe gotten it from some kind of prognosticating spirit.  He might even have developed some ability for that himself.  Some wizards do."
Harry using Rashid as a messenger to give himself a message from the future works well.  It also fits with his altercation in TC where Rashid says it isn't Harry's time to defy the WC yet.  Yet being the operative word.  If Rashid met future!Harry, say at the Outer Gates, he'd know something was going to go down along those lines.  Harry couldn't risk telling Rashid too much, though, or he'd jeopardize his timeline.



With the attack on Arctis Tor, Little Chicago, and the Corner Hounds I'm wondering if there is going to be a time travel book where Harry is going to many different points in history, chasing someone else who's trying to mess things up.

Plot twist:  There was Hellfire, but the one who nuked Mab's army was Dresden using Soulfire.
There's a book going to be dedicated to every Law, so we're in for some time travel for sure.  My guess is that it'll be the last book before the BAT.  That way, it can be used as a way to get Harry's eyes on all the important plot points that have been happening in the background of the other books.  Dresden books have a pattern, and that pattern fractals out for the series as a whole.  Introduce the problem (StF thru GP-ish), big mid-book fight (Changes thru CD), big aha mystery solved moment (time travel book), finale fight to fix it (BAT).

Going on that idea where the time travel book is the mystery reveal near the end, we can probably see clues of future!Harry in the background of several other case files (with plausible explanations of why it might not be time travel to throw us off the trail).  My current list of candidates is:
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on August 27, 2021, 03:20:11 PM
Is there really another kind of time travel story?

I'm thinking if that is what it comes down to in the end, it is a real cop out in terms of story telling..
Oh yeah, Harry or someone traveled back in time and altered all of that stuff... That for me at any rate would be a huge disappointment.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: The_Sibelis on August 27, 2021, 03:30:36 PM
With the attack on Arctis Tor, Little Chicago, and the Corner Hounds I'm wondering if there is going to be a time travel book where Harry is going to many different points in history, chasing someone else who's trying to mess things up.

Plot twist:  There was Hellfire, but the one who nuked Mab's army was Dresden using Soulfire.
very similar to my idea, except I'd still think it's hellfire. Have you.. looked at the MCU multiversal set up? The branches and the different limbs and all that. That's exactly how I'd been trying to describe how I think harry getting home from MM would be, he has to jump through the different smaller timeline to get to bigger branches that get him closer to his core reality, except he has to make sure events match at each point enough to be similar to his next jump. Which would bring us back to the reality we know, and explain why it's so fractured and details misaligned. Because he gets to a very similar timeline, but in the closed loop aspect of it, it's not quite the same. I theorize alot of the sudden changes or "errors", past events no longer referenced, ect.(direct, on screen changes, like the car in DB outside of Bocks, are actively happening which is why the splice is there)Are the results of Harry changing what happened to suite him. Saving Thomas from shagnasty perhaps..?
(click to show/hide)
just an idea. But I try to see what point any TT would have, what's the causality of it. Arctis Tor would seem to have got Mabs attention on molly perhaps, and certainly left the bastion clear when Harry came calling. The why of it is less clear, I'm wondering if he didn't assault the fortress not as an enemy outright but an unwelcome ally. Causing a direct confrontation with Mab before leaving in truce, or in chase of Nemesis escaping?  Prevent Mabs infection, but indirectly cause Maeves?
I remember people here talking about the way things just seem to warp off center in the double books, Carlos' fist bump somehow marking Dresden and such, I theorize, much like the Doppler effect of the time travel attack on DR, the closer you get to the event horizon the bigger the waves. Thinking of other similarities in stories like a sound of thunder.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 27, 2021, 03:31:08 PM
I'm thinking if that is what it comes down to in the end, it is a real cop out in terms of story telling..
Oh yeah, Harry or someone traveled back in time and altered all of that stuff... That for me at any rate would be a huge disappointment.
Not altered it, but worked in the background to make sure someone else didn't make it worse.  Altering breaks the law of conservation of history Odin talks about.  It's too hard to do, especially that far back.  More like Prisoner of Azkaban style where Harry's maintaining his timeline.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: BrainFireBob on August 27, 2021, 05:19:15 PM
I'm thinking if that is what it comes down to in the end, it is a real cop out in terms of story telling..
Oh yeah, Harry or someone traveled back in time and altered all of that stuff... That for me at any rate would be a huge disappointment.

If Butcher does it, I would guess he'd base it on Wolfe's Solar Cycle.

(click to show/hide)

Butcher doing something similar would be fine by me- Harry hurtling around making sure his life is "close enough for government work".
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 27, 2021, 08:46:43 PM
But I try to see what point any TT would have, what's the causality of it. Arctis Tor would seem to have got Mabs attention on molly perhaps, and certainly left the bastion clear when Harry came calling. The why of it is less clear, I'm wondering if he didn't assault the fortress not as an enemy outright but an unwelcome ally. Causing a direct confrontation with Mab before leaving in truce, or in chase of Nemesis escaping?  Prevent Mabs infection, but indirectly cause Maeves?
The first attack on Arctis Tor had nothing to do with Molly. It wasn't a rescue and it was never meant to overthrow Mab. The reason there is so little resistance when Harry goes in was because he was meant to see what had happened. It is meant to answer Eb's question, why didn't Mab kick some Red Vampire ass?

Why did Mab have Molly brought to Arctis Tor? Hint.  It wasn't to provide takeout for the Scarecrow.  Everything that happened up to that point in time was to give Harry the time to connect the dots.  He had to discover that Molly had used Black Magic.  This was the whole point of Rashid's letter.

Molly is merely a stalking horse. She is being used to conceal an attack on Harry.   And the phages are the key.
Quote from: Harry in Proven Guilty
The phages. The answer was in the phages.
The phages are the pointer to Molly's psychic attack. Bob hits Harry over the head with a cluebat to indicate that the are two people calling the phages.
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“Okay. Assuming that, the next variable is finding out whether they’re being summoned or sent.”

I frowned. “There are things strong enough to send them through from the other side? I didn’t think that ever happened anymore. Hence the popularity of working through mortal summoners.”

“Oh, it’s doable,” Bob assured me. “It just takes a hell of a lot more juice to open the way to the mortal world from the other side.”

I frowned. “How much power are we talking?”

“Big,” Bob assured me. “Like the Erlking, or an archangel, or one of the old gods.”

I got a shivery feeling in my stomach. “A Faerie Queen?”

“Oh, sure. I guess so.” He frowned. “You think this is Faerie work?”
Here Bob is the distraction supplied by Jim. Both things he says are true. They are not mutually exclusive. Since Bob uses Queens you can take it to mean Maeve and Mab.  Jim wants to make sure you don't miss that it is a distraction, so he tells you.
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“These phage attacks look fairly simple at first glance. Like… I don’t know. Shark attacks. Something hungry shows up to eat someone and then leaves. Natural occurrences. Or rather, typical supernatural occurrences.”

“But they aren’t random,” Murphy said. “Someone is sending them to a specific place. Someone who used magic to try to stop you when you interfered with one of the phages.”

“Which begs the obvious question…” I began.

Murphy nodded and finished the thought. “Why do it in the first place?”

I stuck my left hand out to one side of me and said, “Look over here.” Then I mimed a short jab with my right fist.

It’s a rope-a-dope,” Murphy said, her eyes narrowing. “A distraction. But from what?”

“Something worse than homicidal, shapeshifting, supernatural predators, apparently,” I mused. “Something we’d want to stop a lot more.”
Now cascade down the logic trail like Harry.  Mab sends the phages to attack Pell.  Rashid sends the letter. Maeve summons the phages to the screening room.  One of them sends Scarecrow to the garage.  Meave summons the Phages to Splattercon.  The last attack was the only planned attack.  Madrigal was a sacrificial goat to cause the White Council to be called in.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: The_Sibelis on August 27, 2021, 10:13:41 PM
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The first attack on Arctis Tor had nothing to do with Molly. It wasn't a rescue and it was never meant to overthrow Mab. The reason there is so little resistance when Harry goes in was because he was meant to see what had happened. It is meant to answer Eb's question, why didn't Mab kick some Red Vampire ass?
that's entirety you perspective on it. Something was the catalyst for the fetches, it didn't just happen. And as far as I know, this only hints at the answer, it does not tell it. Hence, why we still don't have that answer really?
Although I'm aware of the theory that your talking about is based on, I have no idea why you've come to these particular conclusions, but none of which are my own.
The cluebat has nothing to do with two people summoning phages imo. It's the fact that the beacon and the summoner are not necessarily the same thing, and basically explain the concept of how Nemesis vectors. Fyi, what Harry guesses during an investigation is rarely spot on when he's just constructing things like the rope a dope theory,(he doesn't have all the angles, know all the players, ect. He just doesn't have enough to get the real answer on his own) it never comes to fruitation that he was being distracted from anything else. It's more Meta, the supernatural creatures are OUR distraction from what going on.. And, on top of all that, if only the last attack is planned then it still doesn't address, WHY Molly?
Now, I'm wizarding here to wonder what effect attacking arctis Tor actually had on the timeline if it was a TT event. Why attack, to what end, and what changes it made.
Shorter..
1 doesn't explain why arctis Tor was attacked which is my focus
2 doesn't explain, why anyone targeted molly from any angle
3 why, or HOW mab would send the phages after Pell, she wouldn't, in fact, she specifically couldn't. Replace Pell with Molly, same issue.
4 Madrigal, being a sacrificial goat to bring in WC? Why would that bring in the council? It was to give them a, preferably dead, patsy for the crimes
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 28, 2021, 12:08:53 AM
that's entirety you perspective on it.
Yes, who others could it be?
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Something was the catalyst for the fetches, it didn't just happen. And as far as I know, this only hints at the answer, it does not tell it. Hence, why we still don't have that answer really?
The answer will never be enunciated in explicit terms. The attack as plotted by me would have consisted of one attack.  The final one at Splattercon. The only purpose of that attack was to draw in Harry to kill Madrigal.
Quote
Although I'm aware of the theory that your talking about is based on, I have no idea why you've come to these particular conclusions, but none of which are my own.
The cluebat has nothing to do with two people summoning phages imo. It's the fact that the beacon and the summoner are not necessarily the same thing, and basically explain the concept of how Nemesis vectors. Fyi, what Harry guesses during an investigation is rarely spot on when he's just constructing things like the rope a dope theory,(he doesn't have all the angles, know all the players, ect. He just doesn't have enough to get the real answer on his own) it never comes to fruitation that he was being distracted from anything else. It's more Meta, the supernatural creatures are OUR distraction from what going on. And, on top of all that, if only the last attack is planned then it still doesn't address, WHY Molly?
Surely you jest. The Damsel in distress? Jim favorite plot device. First Jim sets the emotional hook.  The first trial. How sickened and unfair Harry feels it is. Enter Madrigal Raith White Court Vampire.  Harry reads Madrigal as the culprit and kills him. Which came close to happening  The White Council comes to town finds Molly and kills her.  Harry dies trying to stop it.
Quote
Now, I'm wizarding here to wonder what effect attacking arctis Tor actually had on the timeline if it was a TT event. Why attack, to what end, and what changes it made.
Shorter..
1 doesn't explain why arctis Tor was attacked which is my focus
2 doesn't explain, why anyone targeted molly from any angle
3 why, or HOW mab would send the phages after Pell, she wouldn't, in fact, she specifically couldn't. Replace Pell with Molly, same issue.
4 Madrigal, being a sacrificial goat to bring in WC? Why would that bring in the council? It was to give them a, preferably dead, patsy for the crimes
Arctis Tor was attacked to keep Mab from interfering in the Reds attack on the Council. With an added note.  She knows that Lily and Maeve are close. So is Summer may be involved.  All else follows.

Molly was targeted because she was in the Juvenile Justice System. Which in Chicago is corrupted by one or the other factions.  This was how Harry was disappeared as a child. And she was close to a Knight and Harry. An additional note if the White Court was involved it would explained how she was trapped. Perhaps by Madeline?

Mab can attack anyone as long as she doesn't do it herself.  This should be obvious after Small Favor where she sends the Hobs into a train station full of people to kill the Archive. And the fact of Mab and Maeve are tap dancing around each other is supported in the denouement.
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I shook my head. “I think Lily got suckered just as much as we did.”

He frowned and rubbed at his head with one palm. “How so?”

“That’s the part I can’t figure,” I said. “I think someone set Molly up to be a beacon for the fetches. And I’m damned sure that it was no accident that those fetches took Molly to Arctis Tor when it was so lightly defended. Someone wanted me there at Arctis Tor.”

Ebenezar pursed his lips. “Who?”

I think we got used by one of the Queens to one-up one of the others, somehow. But damned if I can figure out how.
In as much as anything Jim does is straightforward the why of it all is also in there.
Quote
He glanced back at his house and said, “Have you ever considered the possibility that the Lord did not send me out on my most recent mission so that I could protect my daughter? That it was not His intention to use you to protect her?”

“What’s your point?”

“Only that it is entirely possible, Harry Dresden, that this entire affair, beginning to end, is meant to protect you. That when I went to the aid of Luccio and her trainees, I did so not to free Molly, but to prevent you from coming to blows with the Council. That her position as your new apprentice had less to do with protecting her than it did protecting you?”
I suggested Uriel was moving in the background. The books are written out of order.  But as is, that puts the attack on Arctis Tor after Harry speaks to Mab in Dead Beat.  And her retaliation has to be withheld.

One final note about TT.  Did Jim think it would be cute to have Harry or someone save him from his toy.  Why did Lash stay silent during the first attempt but balk at the second. All the questions become moot if you speculate that Lash caused the flaw and that she used Harry to cause Bob to not see it.  Even if none of the rest of the plan worked Harry was slated to die when he tried to use it.

Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: The_Sibelis on August 28, 2021, 12:51:18 AM
Yes, who others could it be?
let me be more direct, I see nothing in your perspective except ideas based on conjecture, and showing why Mab didn't react is only the doyalist answer, it isn't an in story answer for why it happened, the perspective I'm looking for.
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The answer will never be enunciated in explicit terms. The attack as plotted by me would have consisted of one attack.  The final one at Splattercon. The only purpose of that attack was to draw in Harry to kill Madrigal.
Nay, tis you who must be in jest? They set up an elaborate series of attacks, lining up a patsy with the same attributes as the killers, to point Harry at said patsy for his murder, only to have the real murderer show himself and fail to kill Madrigal while also clearly showing his innocence? That makes absolutely no sense to me. Coulda just sent the fetches to kill him to start. The only real explanation is it's a big soap opera set up for $hit$ and giggles then..
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Surely you jest. The Damsel in distress? Jim favorite plot device. First Jim sets the emotional hook.  The first trial. How sickened and unfair Harry feels it is. Enter Madrigal Raith White Court Vampire.  Harry reads Madrigal as the culprit and kills him. Which came close to happening  The White Council comes to town finds Molly and kills her.  Harry dies trying to stop it.
surely, you don't think all the foreshadowing and future usage of Molly was all thrown out the window for PG to peg her as a mere damsel in distress? Harry doesn't get warned of black magic, doesn't look deeper, maybe dies sure, council never twigs to Molly, as the culprit was already accounted for and nobody on the council lacks Harry's prejudice to actually pay attention, in fact, they would count on Eb NOT being able to look past it. Besides GKs clue, from a possible future, nobody on the council knew about Molly's connection, getting the clue from the future, how he could act on it was likely limited anyway. So Molly, as fear bringer incarnate, gets away Scott free.
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Arctis Tor was attacked to keep Mab from interfering in the Reds attack on the Council. With an added note.  She knows that Lily and Maeve are close. So is Summer may be involved.  All else follows.
not a valid explanation, and entirely ignores that she wasn't allowed to, it's implied she literally makes a deal, and as part of that deal she can't try to get revenge later for the specific turn of events. This is why she allows Lea such free reign when Harry gets her aid in his quest, this was directly stated
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Molly was targeted because she was in the Juvenile Justice System. Which in Chicago is corrupted by one or the other factions.  This was how Harry was disappeared as a child. And she was close to a Knight and Harry. An additional note if the White Court was involved it would explained how she was trapped. Perhaps by Madeline?
I have literally no idea what your talking about here, Molly wasn't in trouble or anything herself before the events of PG, this isn't a linear thing.

Quote
Mab can attack anyone as long as she doesn't do it herself.  This should be obvious after Small Favor where she sends the Hobs into a train station full of people to kill the Archive.
prove it, any of that statement. We don't know who sent the hobs 100%, we don't know why they were sent, and we don't know how much control they'd actually have once there. The Hobs did Hob things and attacked indiscriminately. She didn't, and can't order anyone killed on a whim. She specifically has the WK to send after people she wants killed who are not affiliated with the courts or somehow in debt, course, with the WK on ice, it seems to me instead of chosing to act, some things are just set free to act where she'd usually apply direct action. But sending something to kill just anyone is directly against what we know they're capacity is.
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And the fact of Mab and Maeve are tap dancing around each other is supported in the denouement.In as much as anything Jim does is straightforward the why of it all is also in there.
don't think that's accurate, just perspective. We know the queens only really act against each other to maintain balance. As shown in BG, they actually act in concert with the other, just in opposite. They were one upping their Nemesis, the player Harry doesn't know about yet there.
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I suggested Uriel was moving in the background. The books are written out of order.  But as is, that puts the attack on Arctis Tor after Harry speaks to Mab in Dead Beat.  And her retaliation has to be withheld.

One final note about TT.  Did Jim think it would be cute to have Harry or someone save him from his toy.  Why did Lash stay silent during the first attempt but balk at the second. All the questions become moot if you speculate that Lash caused the flaw and that she used Harry to cause Bob to not see it.  Even if none of the rest of the plan worked Harry was slated to die when he tried to use it.
really, really off topic and kinda confusing. But no... Without the message from GK he wouldn't have been in that situation of needing it yet, and Lasciel would have had more time to work on him. Don't think he was ever fated to die there, fated to fall perhaps.(although, alot of the TT specifically deals with stopping him from dying, it still works because they do so indirectly, without abrogation of free will and ergo fate. Aaand back down the rabbit hole...
(click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 28, 2021, 02:34:19 AM
Of course everything we write is conjecture, since my name isn't Jim Butcher how could it be otherwise?

This is the prime motivator of the book.
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“You remember the Red Court’s attack last year,” he said. “That they called up Outsiders and assaulted us within the realm of Faerie itself.”

“Bad move, so I’ve heard. The Faeries are going to take it out of their hides.”

“So we all thought,” the old man said. “In fact, Summer declared war upon the Red Court and began preliminary assaults on them. But Winter hasn’t responded—and Summer hasn’t done much more than secure its borders.”

“Queen Mab didn’t declare war?”

“No.”

I frowned. “Never thought she’d pass up the chance. She’s all about carnage and bloodshed.”

“It surprised us as well,” he said. “So I want to ask a favor of you.”

I eyed him without speaking.

“Find out why,” he said. “You have contacts within the Courts. Find out what’s happening. Find out why the Sidhe haven’t gone to war.”
Here is the secondary mover.
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Dresden,

In the past ten days there have been repeated acts of black magic in Chicago. As the senior Warden in the region, it falls to you to investigate and find those responsible. In my opinion, it is vital that you do so immediately. To my knowledge, no one else is aware of the situation.

Rashid
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Michael tossed his case and his bag into the back of his white pickup truck. “Molly was arrested. Possession.”

I blinked at him. “She was possessed?”

He sighed and looked at me. “Possession. Marijuana and Ecstasy. She was at a party and the police raided it. She was caught holding them.”

“Wow,” I said, my voice subdued. “What happened?”

“Community service,”
In this book at this point in the series Molly is nothing but a damsel in distress.  She takes part in no fights, contributes to the plot in no way other than being the damsel.
Quote from: Small Favor
“Why?” I demanded. “Why did you want the Denarians stopped? Why send the hobs to kill the Archive? Why recruit me to save the Archive and Marcone in the event that the hobs failed?”

Mab paused, turned, casually showing off the gorgeous curves of her calves, and tilted her head at me. “Nicodemus and his ilk were clearly in violation of my Accords, and obviously planning to abuse them to further his ambition. That was reason enough to see his designs disrupted. And among the Fallen was one with much to answer for to me, personally, for its attack upon my home.”
Mother Winter, Mab and Maeve are all Queens.  Maeve and Mab were having a family fight.

That's all I have time for.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: The_Sibelis on August 28, 2021, 03:09:26 AM
Of course everything we write is conjecture, since my name isn't Jim Butcher how could it be otherwise?

This is the prime motivator of the book.Here is the secondary mover.In this book at this point in the series Molly is nothing but a damsel in distress.  She takes part in no fights, contributes to the plot in no way other than being the damsel.Mother Winter, Mab and Maeve are all Queens.  Maeve and Mab were having a family fight.

That's all I have time for.
conjecture is an idea specifically based on incomplete information.  As opposed to a theory which is postulated on incomplete information, subtle difference to me. actually your quote proved my point, nobody else knew of the situation with Molly. She wasn't in distress, she was the distress.
Mab and Maeve having a family fight doesn't cover HALF of it, she figures out Maeve is infected based on her actions in this book yes, but in order for that to be a side piece she already had to have had a culprit acting for Maeve to support. Nothing you said lines up to me and when I press you say you don't have time to explain? ignore me in the future then, I'm don't have anything for you.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 28, 2021, 04:08:20 AM
I'm uncertain what you seem to be angry about. I've spent a couple of hours writing those posts and I have other things that I have to do.  But I will of course respect your wishes.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: The_Sibelis on August 28, 2021, 05:45:31 AM
I'm uncertain what you seem to be angry about. I've spent a couple of hours writing those posts and I have other things that I have to do.  But I will of course respect your wishes.
I'm not 🤔 but when people interrupt theory craft to tell us the limit of what we know I definitely whing. I'm seriously tempted to put together a thread pointing out Harry doesn't have the right grasp on things and, for instance, looking for the black Council leads to an absolute dead end based on faulty perspective given to us. The books not meant to give you answers, Jim has admitted as much. He intentionally leaves a blank space an expects you to fill in th gap to figure out what's going on and make the leap yourself. Though I admit freely, when it seems people are tripping those trying to get a head start on the leap, smothering creativity in theory craft, I doth frown greatly. By all means bring up the clues and counter dictions, if something directly contradicts an idea, I'd love to know about it so I can evolve and adapt there, but not the book conclusions. We've all read them, If those were so perfect, we'd not have anything to discuss.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: groinkick on August 28, 2021, 06:50:07 AM
Is there really another kind of time travel story?

Yep.  Back to the future 1 & 3.  About Time is another movie without that.  Besides Back to the Future 2 I can't recall a time travel story where someone is going back in time to prevent a villain from doing something bad.  I guess on Star Trek Voyager, Star Trek TNG, and DS9 they had that kind of time travel story but they weren't as thought out as what Jim has been setting up (if the theory is true)

Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: groinkick on August 28, 2021, 06:55:54 AM
very similar to my idea, except I'd still think it's hellfire. Have you.. looked at the MCU multiversal set up? The branches and the different limbs and all that. That's exactly how I'd been trying to describe how I think harry getting home from MM would be, he has to jump through the different smaller timeline to get to bigger branches that get him closer to his core reality, except he has to make sure events match at each point enough to be similar to his next jump. Which would bring us back to the reality we know, and explain why it's so fractured and details misaligned. Because he gets to a very similar timeline, but in the closed loop aspect of it, it's not quite the same. I theorize alot of the sudden changes or "errors", past events no longer referenced, ect.(direct, on screen changes, like the car in DB outside of Bocks, are actively happening which is why the splice is there)Are the results of Harry changing what happened to suite him. Saving Thomas from shagnasty perhaps..?
(click to show/hide)
just an idea. But I try to see what point any TT would have, what's the causality of it. Arctis Tor would seem to have got Mabs attention on molly perhaps, and certainly left the bastion clear when Harry came calling. The why of it is less clear, I'm wondering if he didn't assault the fortress not as an enemy outright but an unwelcome ally. Causing a direct confrontation with Mab before leaving in truce, or in chase of Nemesis escaping?  Prevent Mabs infection, but indirectly cause Maeves?
I remember people here talking about the way things just seem to warp off center in the double books, Carlos' fist bump somehow marking Dresden and such, I theorize, much like the Doppler effect of the time travel attack on DR, the closer you get to the event horizon the bigger the waves. Thinking of other similarities in stories like a sound of thunder.

Oh wow that would be really epic.  I hadn't thought about that.  I thought he'd just defeat evil Dresden and get back.  That would be pretty interesting if the Time Travel book was his way of getting back to his reality from the Mirror Mirror universe.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 28, 2021, 01:39:05 PM
Yep.  Back to the future 1 & 3.  About Time is another movie without that.  Besides Back to the Future 2 I can't recall a time travel story where someone is going back in time to prevent a villain from doing something bad.  I guess on Star Trek Voyager, Star Trek TNG, and DS9 they had that kind of time travel story but they weren't as thought out as what Jim has been setting up (if the theory is true)
Time Cop is one and I could name a dozen or so books without straining, The Door Into Summer by by Heinlein and The Chronicles of St Mary's being two.  But Jim will bring his own blend of prose and humor to the table.

@The_Sibelis
There is nothing on any level that I could possibly do to affect whatever enjoyment you find here. Nor would I wish to. I have no brief, no special knowledge, just the construction that my imagination creates from the prose. Now you have requested I leave you alone and I have said I will.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on August 28, 2021, 03:32:07 PM
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Time Cop is one and I could name a dozen or so books without straining, The Door Into Summer by by Heinlein and The Chronicles of St Mary's being two.  But Jim will bring his own blend of prose and humor to the table.

It's been done so much it is tired, which is my point..  There is enough multidimensional interplay, the Outsiders, the Old Ones, the Outer Gates, the Nevernever, Hades, Heaven, Valhalla, wizards. that all along the way in real time beings from these dimensions could be messing with Little Chicago, calling up Cornerhounds, etc., for their own reasons, no need for Harry or anyone else to travel though time for any of it.  The trick is for him to figure out the big mystery.. Not as easy perhaps as time travel, but perhaps more interesting.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 28, 2021, 05:30:53 PM
I hope he applies the principle of parsimony. But he will use it and has said when.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on August 28, 2021, 05:50:02 PM
I hope he applies the principle of parsimony. But he will use it and has said when.

Yeah, well, Harry has always been a bit tight, and with good reason, he has always lived from hand to mouth...  He does have some degree of wealth now from the diamonds, and who knows Murphy may have left him her share as well, but old habits die hard.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: groinkick on August 29, 2021, 01:25:15 AM
It's been done so much it is tired, which is my point..  There is enough multidimensional interplay, the Outsiders, the Old Ones, the Outer Gates, the Nevernever, Hades, Heaven, Valhalla, wizards. that all along the way in real time beings from these dimensions could be messing with Little Chicago, calling up Cornerhounds, etc., for their own reasons, no need for Harry or anyone else to travel though time for any of it.  The trick is for him to figure out the big mystery.. Not as easy perhaps as time travel, but perhaps more interesting.

How can you think Harry could face someone who's been altering time without messing with time himself?  I for one am looking forward to it.  I also am thinking that the time travel story will reveal who Cowl, and Kumori are.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 30, 2021, 02:48:27 AM
How can you think Harry could face someone who's been altering time without messing with time himself?  I for one am looking forward to it.  I also am thinking that the time travel story will reveal who Cowl, and Kumori are.
Who has altered time? What event will he fix?
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: groinkick on August 30, 2021, 04:14:21 AM
Who has altered time? What event will he fix?

If I knew that I would know what going to happen several books from now.  My guess for example is that future Harry fixes past Little Chicago.  I don't think Harry will be chasing someone through time.  I think that someone during those time periods was breaking the rules in such a way that Harry goes back to correct things to the way they were supposed to play out.  I don't know how "they" messed things up.  I just feel that Harry goes back to fix things.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 30, 2021, 12:08:16 PM
I actually agree.  Assuming that he will go back then he has already done it for any event that has already made it into the text. You've identified one and I believe there are others. But having Harry fix an event in which he might die is paradoxical.  If he dies how does he exist to go back and change the event and how does he know it has to be him?
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: The_Sibelis on August 30, 2021, 12:21:26 PM
They get around free will by, well, just straight up not violating it directly. Twinning the universes is a different sort of paradox (or did Odin say apocalypse 🤔 )
Take the events of DB. Harry was supposed to die in that Alley. He didn't specifically because of Kumori getting Marcones attention reviving the thug on Wacker St. Which I know, should be paradoxical in itself. But why wasn't it? Because the thug was never supposed to die. We've already seen another prime example of someone messing with perceptions to get two groups to shoot each other, when the Rag Lady was operating. So, she does something to cause a shoot out(which works really good as a future Alt version of Molly btw) and then something spectacular to draw attention to it's oddity. This cascade's into Marcone making the choice to go meet Dresden and save him in the Alley. The rules have already been laid out, you just have to look for things that fit.
The funny thing to me, is Kumori does that minutes before they show up together at Bocks. I think if Harry had died in the alley, there wouldn't be a body left to revive. So cowl didn't exist when fate was on that path, only Kumori. Timeline flux with each intervention changing who went back from where and what they changed,
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 30, 2021, 05:37:46 PM
I actually agree.  Assuming that he will go back then he has already done it for any event that has already made it into the text. You've identified one and I believe there are others. But having Harry fix an event in which he might die is paradoxical.  If he dies how does he exist to go back and change the event and how does he know it has to be him?
Yeah, I think Harry to go back through time to make sure what has already happened happens (Prisoner of Azkaban style).  Chasing someone through time to prevent them from screwing with the timeline is one convenient way to do that, but regardless I expect the time travel book to be the one where the important behind the scenes information of the big bads' actions can be conveyed to the reader.  Jim can get Harry's eyes on events that he had no way of knowing or understanding during the regular case files.  For example, we get to see how Little Chicago got fixed, we get to see what was going on with Arctis Tor, how did Aurora get infected, who hired Shagnasty, etc.
It's also a good chance for fan service by giving dead characters good cameos.  Susan, Morgan, or Aurora perhaps.

Say Harry does it nearly perfectly, one small error in judgement could mean the kickoff to the BAT.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 30, 2021, 06:00:29 PM
Maybe, but I don't see a reason to do much around PG other than LC.  As of Cold Days most of the characters are dead.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 31, 2021, 01:44:39 AM
Maybe, but I don't see a reason to do much around PG other than LC.  As of Cold Days most of the characters are dead.
It also gives Harry a chance to use LC one last time before it blows up.  It got a lot of page time for something that only got used once or twice.

Regardless, it would be nice to know if the Denarian throwing hellfire in Arctis Tor was working alone as well as the purpose of the assault.  If it was to rescue Nem!Lea, why did they kill all the trolls but not finish the job in the garden (where Mab would have been able to skewer them thoroughly)?  If Mab did step in to stop them, where are all their bodies?  If it was a stealth mission, throwing hellfire isn't that stealthy.  Overall, it's confusing even when you make the assumption that Maeve was bumping Mab's elbow with ordering fetches around (thereby revealing her own infection).
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: groinkick on August 31, 2021, 02:32:00 AM
It also gives Harry a chance to use LC one last time before it blows up.  It got a lot of page time for something that only got used once or twice.

Regardless, it would be nice to know if the Denarian throwing hellfire in Arctis Tor was working alone as well as the purpose of the assault.  If it was to rescue Nem!Lea, why did they kill all the trolls but not finish the job in the garden (where Mab would have been able to skewer them thoroughly)?  If Mab did step in to stop them, where are all their bodies?  If it was a stealth mission, throwing hellfire isn't that stealthy.  Overall, it's confusing even when you make the assumption that Maeve was bumping Mab's elbow with ordering fetches around (thereby revealing her own infection).

That's the thing.  We saw what Mab was capable of in Battle Ground.  Mab was at the heart of Winter, in her fortress, and her forces got demolished.  It doesn't appear the attackers were successful, but they got pretty darn close.  There had to have been some extremely heavy hitters there.  I'd like to know who they were.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 31, 2021, 03:03:45 AM
That's the thing.  We saw what Mab was capable of in Battle Ground.  Mab was at the heart of Winter, in her fortress, and her forces got demolished.  It doesn't appear the attackers were successful, but they got pretty darn close.  There had to have been some extremely heavy hitters there.  I'd like to know who they were.
Troll bodyguards got killed, but "demolished" might be an overstatement.
Quote from: Excerpt from a larger WoJ
But to correct some minor stuff:  the fetches aren’t even /close/ to her strongest servitors.  They’re her couriers, harassers, spies and occasional assassins.  Captain Kudzu was a being that was deemed more-or-less sufficient on the badassometer, but nothing to write home about.  The fetches main use, to Mab, isn’t as battlefield thugs.  She’s got /plenty/ of other things for that.  Another mild correction:  who says Mab /lost/ the battle at Arctis Tor, before Harry and Company arrived?  At the end of the day, the Winter Queen was still in her fortress–but you didn’t see anyone standing around assaulting the place, did ya. :)  Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments–exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

Edit:
Balance that with
Quote
    The Wild Hunt lead by a couple of Denarians such at Thorned Namshiel, The Erlking and a bunch of Outsiders could get the job done. That would have been a fight to see (from a distance).

Nah, they wouldn’t even come close.  I mean… it’s like comparing apples and… and hand grenades.

Just about the best they could hope to accomplish would be to force Mab to make an effort.  Though when Mab came for them, it wouldn’t be a kick-down-the-door-and-kick-ass kind of encounter.  It would be a One-two-three-four-five-Hey-weren’t-there-SIX-of-us-here-a-second-ago? situation.

I mean, sure, the Erlking is a peer of Mab’s–but there’s kind of a reason that it’s /Mab/ who rules the Worst of the Worst in Faerie, and not the Erlking.

All of which doesn’t even TOUCH on the way power is actually balanced in Faerie, because neither Mab nor the Erlking would attempt such a thing, or /consider/ attempting such a thing.  It would upset the natural order.  Conflicts between most of the Fae powers are very subtle, and generally involve proxies, pride, sex or all of the above. :)

Harry (or Molly or Murphy or Butters or any other mortal) has more potential to harm Mab than that crew.  Not much more likelihood of victory, true, but it isn’t /zero/, either.

Jim


I agree that more information would be better.  It's a confusing scene, and I don't think we have enough clues to make a great guess yet.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 31, 2021, 03:06:29 AM
It also gives Harry a chance to use LC one last time before it blows up.  It got a lot of page time for something that only got used once or twice.

Regardless, it would be nice to know if the Denarian throwing hellfire in Arctis Tor was working alone as well as the purpose of the assault.  If it was to rescue Nem!Lea, why did they kill all the trolls but not finish the job in the garden (where Mab would have been able to skewer them thoroughly)?  If Mab did step in to stop them, where are all their bodies?  If it was a stealth mission, throwing hellfire isn't that stealthy.  Overall, it's confusing even when you make the assumption that Maeve was bumping Mab's elbow with ordering fetches around (thereby revealing her own infection).
Don't read this if you don't want a half ass WAG. And it is just that.
(click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: groinkick on August 31, 2021, 03:06:55 AM
Troll bodyguards got killed, but "demolished" might be an overstatement.

The fire was so hot that Harry said he couldn't have done it with Hellfire.  There were skeletons everywhere, indicating a lot of death.  I believe Dresden called them Mab's personal guard.  In other words, badasses.  Mab wouldn't have wimps for protection. 
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 31, 2021, 03:11:31 AM
The fire was so hot that Harry said he couldn't have done it with Hellfire.  There were skeletons everywhere, indicating a lot of death.  I believe Dresden called them Mab's personal guard.  In other words, badasses.  Mab wouldn't have wimps for protection.
Lots of death, but no call out for reinforcements and they leave without getting to Lea.  That says more that the mook bodyguards got sacrificed for whatever reason than Arctis Tor was in danger of falling.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: groinkick on August 31, 2021, 03:20:34 AM
Lots of death, but no call out for reinforcements and they leave without getting to Lea.  That says more that the mook bodyguards got sacrificed for whatever reason than Arctis Tor was in danger of falling.

Who hits Mab and lives to tell the tale??  Apparently the ones who hit there.  They had to be heavy hitters.  Ok at a minimum, who do you think could have pulled it off?  Gone to the heart of Winter, hit a location where Mab was, and not get obliterated?
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 31, 2021, 03:22:52 AM
Don't read this if you don't want a half ass WAG. And it is just that.
(click to show/hide)
The WAG would be easier to follow if it was explicit instead of a series of innuendos.  This is a spoiler section full of people that have read the series several times over.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 31, 2021, 03:31:09 AM
Who hits Mab and lives to tell the tale??  Apparently the ones who hit there.  They had to be heavy hitters.  Ok at a minimum, who do you think could have pulled it off?  Gone to the heart of Winter, hit a location where Mab was, and not get obliterated?
I think it's more complicated than that.  There's a contradiction: it has to be a group tough enough that they can do that kind of damage in the heart of Winter.  At the same time, they have to be weak enough that Mab didn't feel like there was any real danger for her interests (otherwise call in reinforcements).  WoJ says that Wild Hunt + Erlking + Namshiel would be iffy about Mab even needing to make an effort to stop them.

Altogether, it makes it seem like Mab made a judgement call and showed restraint towards the attackers for an unknown reason.  Harry didn't notice any enemy bodies Mab left behind, but her guards were all killed.  In the end, the attack doesn't seem to have met its objective either.  Mab still has Lea on ice (if that was even the goal at all).
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: groinkick on August 31, 2021, 04:15:55 AM
I think it's more complicated than that.  There's a contradiction: it has to be a group tough enough that they can do that kind of damage in the heart of Winter.  At the same time, they have to be weak enough that Mab didn't feel like there was any real danger for her interests (otherwise call in reinforcements).  WoJ says that Wild Hunt + Erlking + Namshiel would be iffy about Mab even needing to make an effort to stop them.

Altogether, it makes it seem like Mab made a judgement call and showed restraint towards the attackers for an unknown reason.  Harry didn't notice any enemy bodies Mab left behind, but her guards were all killed.  In the end, the attack doesn't seem to have met its objective either.  Mab still has Lea on ice (if that was even the goal at all).

Here is a theory.  What if Mab needed her full focus to isolate Nemesis in Leah, leaving her vulnerable.  Nemesis knowing this directed It's forces to launch the attack in an attempt to force Mab, at a critical moment, to lose her focus. 
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 31, 2021, 04:22:50 AM
Here is a theory.  What if Mab needed her full focus to isolate Nemesis in Leah, leaving her vulnerable.  Nemesis knowing this directed It's forces to launch the attack in an attempt to force Mab, at a critical moment, to lose her focus.
Possible, but then Mab can cut her losses and kill Lea.  She did it with Maeve.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: groinkick on August 31, 2021, 04:46:14 AM
Possible, but then Mab can cut her losses and kill Lea.  She did it with Maeve.

Maybe not.  Maybe once the process of removing Nemesis has been started, it cannot be halted, or she risks Nemesis entering her mind. 
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 31, 2021, 04:56:41 AM
Maybe not.  Maybe once the process of removing Nemesis has been started, it cannot be halted, or she risks Nemesis entering her mind.
I kinda doubt it, but it's possible.  Mab's "cure" seems to be more like a mental wall of ice blocking Nemesis from entering whatever backdoor it made in Lea's mind.

As a different thought along those lines, perhaps Mab made a masterful counterstroke with Lea.  If Nemesis has a finite amount of hosts it can bounce between, keeping Lea alive but unable to be controlled might deprive Nemesis of a host body it could otherwise have.  Say the Arctis Tor attack was an assassination on Lea gone wrong.  With Lea on ice, Mab should have been at the Outer Gates.  Perfect time to make a ballsy move in her empty palace.  Except, nope there she is.  Time to leave as quickly as possible?  Mab might have chased them, but they're not big enough fish to deserve her personal attention.  Especially if it might have been a feint and more attackers would sneak in with Arctis Tor actually empty.

That kind of idea would have the right caliber of enemy to kill Lea (hence burn Arctis Tor) but not worry Mab.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: The_Sibelis on August 31, 2021, 05:28:37 AM
Quote
If Nemesis has a finite amount of hosts it can bounce between, keeping Lea alive but unable to be controlled might deprive Nemesis of a host body it could otherwise have
certainly possible. Though I also wonder if, to trap part of it, you can't more or less "kill" it as far as that's possible, or use the connection to lock down every host/piece of Nemesis via Thaumaturgy. The kill part I wonder about because of what Nic said when Harry was telling him this, about it having a sense of self preservation. Preservation wouldn't be the right word if it wasn't under some real sort of threat.
Though, I'm sure she had to rub against Lea's consciousness to help her fight nemesis, so I do see that as a possibility.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 31, 2021, 05:41:54 AM
certainly possible. Though I also wonder if, to trap part of it, you can't more or less "kill" it as far as that's possible, or use the connection to lock down every host/piece of Nemesis via Thaumaturgy. The kill part I wonder about because of what Nic said when Harry was telling him this, about it having a sense of self preservation. Preservation wouldn't be the right word if it wasn't under some real sort of threat.
Though, I'm sure she had to rub against Lea's consciousness to help her fight nemesis, so I do see that as a possibility.
Anduriel was making a comment about Harry keeping his mouth shut when talking about self preservation.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: The_Sibelis on August 31, 2021, 05:54:53 AM
Anduriel was making a comment about Harry keeping his mouth shut when talking about self preservation.
🤔 no he wasn't? He was discussing what happened with anduriel while harry gave him mad amounts of lip, that's not a self preservation instinct, that's harry. Harry's not an IT either so..
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 31, 2021, 06:13:54 AM
Harry was snarking off, but he decided to keep his mouth shut for once. Harry makes an inner monologue comment about behaving. Plus Anduriel doesn’t care that Harry isn’t an it.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: The_Sibelis on August 31, 2021, 06:19:58 AM
Harry was snarking off, but he decided to keep his mouth shut for once. Harry makes an inner monologue comment about shutting up. Plus Anduriel doesn’t care that Harry isn’t an it.
yea, I'll go scrounge for my book right now. That's not the way that scene plays out. And Nic says it, not Andy. I've already had a similar discussion on divorcing pronouns based on perspective and how older beings refer to Nemesis as it.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on August 31, 2021, 06:21:44 AM
Go for it. I just reread the passage like last week. It’s their meeting at the shedd before the archive kidnapping.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: TheCuriousFan on August 31, 2021, 06:48:49 AM
🤔 no he wasn't? He was discussing what happened with anduriel while harry gave him mad amounts of lip, that's not a self preservation instinct, that's harry. Harry's not an IT either so..
Quote from: Chapter 29 Small Favour
His arm quivered for a second, and then he lowered his eyelids until they were almost closed. A moment later he very, very slowly relaxed his arm, allowing me to breathe again. My throat burned, but air came in, and I wheezed for a second or two while he stepped back from me.

I glared up at him and debated slamming him through one of those Corinthian columns by way of objecting to being manhandled. But I decided that I didn’t want to piss him off.

Nicodemus’s lips moved, but an entirely different voice issued from them—something musical, lyrical, and androgynous. “At least it has some survival instinct.”
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: The_Sibelis on August 31, 2021, 06:57:46 AM

I've never seen it interpreted that way, I only recall others discussing Nemesis in relation to this event. Andy came out because of what Harry said about hellfire and Arctis Tor, leaving almost immediately after. I don't see why he'd be interested in Harry there, though I do see the perspective.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on August 31, 2021, 10:07:27 AM
His arm quivered for a second, and then he lowered his eyelids until they were almost closed. A moment later he very, very slowly relaxed his arm, allowing me to breathe again. My throat burned, but air came in, and I wheezed for a second or two while he stepped back from me.

I glared up at him and debated slamming him through one of those Corinthian columns by way of objecting to being manhandled. But I decided that I didn’t want to piss him off.

Nicodemus’s lips moved, but an entirely different voice issued from them—something musical, lyrical, and androgynous. “At least it has some survival instinct.”

Or to an fallen angel, humans are merely "its" not worth calling a "he" or a "she."  Calling Harry an "it" in this case says he is beneath contempt.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on August 31, 2021, 01:03:11 PM
The attack itself does only one thing.  It keeps Mab from attacking the Reds. From an old WOJ.
Quote from: WOJ
Ask yourself why Mab had Molly brought in.  What chain of events did that set in motion?  What secondary effects came about because of it?
To answer the question why did Mab have Molly brought to Arctis Tor you need only look at the text. It brings all the remaining players to the church were Harry can make the connections he needs to make. The act coalesces his thought process to produce enough of the truth to realize that Molly is the one doing Black Magic. This solves Rashid's mystery

The secondary effect is to show Harry why Mab did not attack.  This is the answer to Eb's question. Somebody with enough power to throw hellfire at the heart of Winter has attacked the Fortress.  With the butterfly Harry is able to cast fire and kill the Scarecrow but the attacker killed hundreds of Mab's elite guard.

@Second Aristh
I gave it to you that way because it would be a fairly long dissertation if I hadn't. For instance here is the chain for the attacks by the fetches. While there still are mysteries in Proven Guilty the primary questions posed by Jim are answered in the text.  By the end of the arc in Cold Days the rest have been mostly revealed. You know for instance that Rashid works for Mab and that he has the eye.  Making Mab the source of the warning.  The events around LC are more complex.  Why did Jim break it for instance? And why did Lash blow hot and cold.  Was the accident an illusion fostered by Lash?  If it was sabotage, why? Who was Sandra Marling? Why was the first trial held in Chicago?
(click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: The_Sibelis on August 31, 2021, 01:45:07 PM
Considering the time dilation and the fact that battle happened years before Harry arrives, the timeline doesn't match up strictly speaking with the attack in, DB iirc? With time shenanigans all things are possible here. The council retreated for about a day and a half. Also, Mabs not able to apply a rebalance of the scales, which is what the council specifically expects. The attack on Arctis Tor doesn't explain that at all. A future event of moving against them for violating their territory. That's the thing that the council doesn't get, why they didn't do anything back, not why they didn't immediately react.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 01, 2021, 02:26:56 AM
The attack itself does only one thing.  It keeps Mab from attacking the Reds. From an old WOJ.To answer the question why did Mab have Molly brought to Arctis Tor you need only look at the text. It brings all the remaining players to the church were Harry can make the connections he needs to make. The act coalesces his thought process to produce enough of the truth to realize that Molly is the one doing Black Magic. This solves Rashid's mystery

The secondary effect is to show Harry why Mab did not attack.  This is the answer to Eb's question. Somebody with enough power to throw hellfire at the heart of Winter has attacked the Fortress.  With the butterfly Harry is able to cast fire and kill the Scarecrow but the attacker killed hundreds of Mab's elite guard.

@Second Aristh
I gave it to you that way because it would be a fairly long dissertation if I hadn't. For instance here is the chain for the attacks by the fetches. While there still are mysteries in Proven Guilty the primary questions posed by Jim are answered in the text.  By the end of the arc in Cold Days the rest have been mostly revealed. You know for instance that Rashid works for Mab and that he has the eye.  Making Mab the source of the warning.  The events around LC are more complex.  Why did Jim break it for instance? And why did Lash blow hot and cold.  Was the accident an illusion fostered by Lash?  If it was sabotage, why? Who was Sandra Marling? Why was the first trial held in Chicago?
(click to show/hide)
I don't buy that the Arctis Tor attack alone was what kept Mab from retaliating against the Reds.  Mab won that battle, whatever it was, and she could have called in her reinforcements from the border in moments.

As far as Mab sending a fetch against Pell initially, faerie queens can't just go and order an underling to kill an unaffiliated mortal.  That has to fall to a knight. 

Idk, there's lots of little things like that that don't add up in PG.  I think that the time travel book will definitely spend some time in the background helping to give answers that we're missing.  Future!Harry giving Rashid the message to send to him (probably involving Mab and helping initiate her end of the plot and letting her know that Harry would someday be her knight where she can make definitive statements without lying), him causing the car wreck in the beginning for whatever reason, LC issues being resolved.  That kind of stuff.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on September 01, 2021, 03:34:24 AM
Harry asks this question of Fix.
Quote
“Theoretically speaking,” I said, “what kinds of things might prevent Winter and Summer from reacting to an incursion by another nation?”
To which Fix gives him an answer. This seemed rather blunt for Jim to me but evidently not.
Quote
As far as Mab sending a fetch against Pell initially, faerie queens can't just go and order an underling to kill an unaffiliated mortal.  That has to fall to a knight. 
Who dies in the bathroom?

Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 01, 2021, 04:10:18 AM
Harry asks this question of Fix.To which Fix gives him an answer. This seemed rather blunt for Jim to me but evidently not.
"Mab hasn't allowed it" is only half an answer.  Why hasn't she allowed it?  You proposed the attack on Arctis Tor, but that seems too small for that kind of choice on Mab's part.


Who dies in the bathroom?
True. 


Like I said, PG has lots of little things that don't quite have answers yet.  We can probably make some good guesses now, especially post-CD, but I don't think we have all the clues we need.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on September 01, 2021, 12:11:28 PM
It's your book when you read it.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Kindler on September 07, 2021, 05:39:30 PM
I think it's more complicated than that.  There's a contradiction: it has to be a group tough enough that they can do that kind of damage in the heart of Winter.  At the same time, they have to be weak enough that Mab didn't feel like there was any real danger for her interests (otherwise call in reinforcements).  WoJ says that Wild Hunt + Erlking + Namshiel would be iffy about Mab even needing to make an effort to stop them.

Altogether, it makes it seem like Mab made a judgement call and showed restraint towards the attackers for an unknown reason.  Harry didn't notice any enemy bodies Mab left behind, but her guards were all killed.  In the end, the attack doesn't seem to have met its objective either.  Mab still has Lea on ice (if that was even the goal at all).
My theory has always been that Molly was the focus of PG because someone knew (or believed in the possibility) that she would one day become the Winter Lady. The fetches were intended to draw Harry's attention to Molly's use of black magic, because without him, she would have certainly been caught, tried, and executed. The main whole-series outcome of Proven Guilty is Molly becoming Harry's apprentice, setting her on a path to replace Maeve as Winter Lady.
Personally, I find it convenient that the first fetch assault accomplished three things: it sealed up Pell's theater, attracted Harry's attention, and framed Molly's... boyfriend? Side piece? I don't know what the cool kids call it these days. Molly was a beacon, and so was the guy (because he was the target of black magic and had the scent of fear that attracted them).
In my opinion, the Arctis Tor attack succeeded at the intended objective: clearing the way for Harry's party. Harry, Thomas, Murphy, and Charity barely had enough in them to handle the fetches; if Mab's elite bodyguards were still kicking, they almost certainly would've failed.
The players we know about:
1. Mab
2. Maeve
3. The Arctis Tor Attackers (speculated in the books to be Thorned Namshiel; at the very least, it appears to be someone capable of using Hellfire)
4. Molly
5. Lily and Fix
6. Nemesis
7. Rashid
Other potential players:
1. Uriel (or other agents of TWG)
2. A third party who may or may not be misleading the Fetches

I believe that Rashid knew Molly would be important, which is why he got Harry looking in on it early. I don't know if Rashid knew that Molly would be the Winter Lady, but he seems to know a lot about what's happening and what's GOING to happen. I think he at least knew that she would be a player in the future, and that her death at that point would be catastrophic. The results of her death would be:
1. First, Harry would go berserk and die. At the very least, he'd be removed from the Council. That's where he is at the end of Battle Ground anyway, but now he's got other Powers backing him up. In Proven Guilty, he had nothing but Hellfire at his disposal, along with being pals with a pack of werewolves and Murphy. Now he has: Winter Knight Mantle, Mab, Molly, the Alphas, the Knights of the Bean (maybe, I haven't decided how important that compact is yet), Bonea, Demonreach, Soulfire, Lara, Odin, a castle, and the 'Za Lord's Guard, plus a reputation.
2. Maeve's gambit in Cold Days might've succeeded. Demonreach might've been breached. Big death bomb.
3. Maggie would've been sacrificed, Eb would've died, and the Red Court would still be alive.
4. White Night might've worked, too. Elaine would've died (also speculated to be another Starborn) for certain.
5. Failing all of that, Ghost Story would've worked as Corpsetaker planned, and a Darkhallow might've been performed for real.
6. Michael would probably have remained a Knight for a while longer if he even still lived.
7. Peabody would've gone undetected.
8. Most importantly, even if Harry lived long enough and Cold Days still played out the way it did on page, there would be another Winter Lady right now. If it was someone of Mab's choosing, she'd likely be an awful lot colder and more ruthless. I think Molly's role as Winter Lady is to be a more humanizing element to Winter, which I think is going to be critical in later installments.
Etc., etc. Basically, if Molly bites the dust and Harry throws down with the Council, everything goes down with them. So it's my belief that someone (likely someones) knew she was going to be important, and helped push the attack on Arctis Tor to make sure things worked out as they did.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: The_Sibelis on September 07, 2021, 06:32:23 PM
The Molly angle is all wrong because it's missing one piece, Molly was instructed to use fear to replace free will. The fetches couldn't have had a beacon without it.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Kindler on September 07, 2021, 07:14:14 PM
The Molly angle is all wrong because it's missing one piece, Molly was instructed to use fear to replace free will. The fetches couldn't have had a beacon without it.
Instructed by whom? And I don't think she exactly abrogated free will. She altered perceptions, and sent nightmares. She attacked their psyches to the point that they made crappy decisions, but that's not replacing free will, in my opinion.
And yes, she was a beacon. I don't see how that makes any of it invalid. It just helped put her in danger. My point is that third parties like Rashid wanted to make sure she didn't die, not that they guided her to become Harry's apprentice and become the Winter Lady. Does that make sense?
1. Molly is going to be important in the future;
2. Rashid and others know this;
3. Molly's gonna die in the near future without intervention;
4. Let's make sure that doesn't happen without violating causality.
That's how I see pretty much all of Proven Guilty.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: The_Sibelis on September 07, 2021, 08:06:37 PM
Instructed by whom? And I don't think she exactly abrogated free will. She altered perceptions, and sent nightmares. She attacked their psyches to the point that they made crappy decisions, but that's not replacing free will, in my opinion.
And yes, she was a beacon. I don't see how that makes any of it invalid. It just helped put her in danger. My point is that third parties like Rashid wanted to make sure she didn't die, not that they guided her to become Harry's apprentice and become the Winter Lady. Does that make sense?
1. Molly is going to be important in the future;
2. Rashid and others know this;
3. Molly's gonna die in the near future without intervention;
4. Let's make sure that doesn't happen without violating causality.
That's how I see pretty much all of Proven Guilty.
what was her name, Sandra Marlin? That fishy lady who directly told molly about fear as a motivator.
She didn't just send nightmares, she replaced compulsive behavior. Even Harry commented on how her friend should have been jonesin still. She modified their behavior with choices they did not make themselves. This compromises free will. Your looking at the right vs wrong aspect I think, which is not the same, and is a matter of opinion really, taking free will vs allowing destructive behavior.
Didn't say it invalidated it? The leaning tower of Pisa is still valid, it's just off base lol.
Without her using fear, she's not a beacon, and nobody can send anything after her or anywhere else. Your basing your theory off the idea the good guys acted first, but they reacted, like literally, post timeline messages and all.
1 that's not even future event knowledge then, that's alternate timeline knowledge.. without intervention whatever happened had to be significant enough to attract not just attention, by the need to fix it from happening by someone whose known for sitting things out and letting things play where they will without his interference.
2 Rashid, knows what? That whatever happened in the original future was deleterious to that future.
3 is death really that big of a deal, for Rashid to interfere?
4 indeed, but what does it actually cause that's so bad?
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on September 07, 2021, 08:14:11 PM
Molly was led in to using fear as the tool when she invaded the mind of her friends.  The suggestion is from Sandra Marling. She is the connection between all the young people.  And she is the one who causes Molly to be removed from the scene before the last attack. She leads Harry to where Molly is being questioned. All of this is in the text.  Harry makes it explicit when he is speaking to Murphy after the accident explaining why the Warlock was beheaded.
Quote
“The kid had gone in for black magic in a big way,” I said. “Mind-control stuff. Robbing people of their free will.”
But you can ask one question about Proven Guilty and if you can answer it you may understand what Michael tells you later.  What did the attack on Pell do?

No attack on Pell and Nelson is not arrested.  Molly never calls Harry to get Nelson out of jail. Harry is not interrupted and uses LC to find the source of Rashid's Black Magic. And since we know it was broken at that point Harry would have been maimed or killed.  This is incontestable given how the book is written.

In the denouement we see Jim's genius.  How to tell the truth in such a way as to leave the reader in doubt
Quote
He glanced back at his house and said, “Have you ever considered the possibility that the Lord did not send me out on my most recent mission so that I could protect my daughter? That it was not His intention to use you to protect her?”

“What’s your point?”

“Only that it is entirely possible, Harry Dresden, that this entire affair, beginning to end, is meant to protect you. That when I went to the aid of Luccio and her trainees, I did so not to free Molly, but to prevent you from coming to blows with the Council. That her position as your new apprentice had less to do with protecting her than it did protecting you?”
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Kindler on September 07, 2021, 08:25:13 PM
what was her name, Sandra Marlin? That fishy lady who directly told molly about fear as a motivator.
Ah, okay, that makes more sense. Yes, Sandra gave Molly the idea. The word "instructed" was bothering me, because it implies a level of authority I don't think Molly'd ever really recognized at the point of her life.
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She didn't just send nightmares, she replaced compulsive behavior. Even Harry commented on how her friend should have been jonesin still. She modified their behavior with choices they did not make themselves. This compromises free will. Your looking at the right vs wrong aspect I think, which is not the same, and is a matter of opinion really, taking free will vs allowing destructive behavior.
I meant that terrifying someone doesn't mean they can no longer choose. To me, removing free will means compulsion, literally overwriting their ability to make a choice. Even someone with a gun pointed at their head can still choose to disobey. But I think we can agree to disagree on this.
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Without her using fear, she's not a beacon, and nobody can send anything after her or anywhere else. Your basing your theory off the idea the good guys acted first, but they reacted, like literally, post timeline messages and all.
1 that's not even future event knowledge then, that's alternate timeline knowledge.. without intervention whatever happened had to be significant enough to attract not just attention, by the need to fix it from happening by someone whose known for sitting things out and letting things play where they will without his interference.
2 Rashid, knows what? That whatever happened in the original future was deleterious to that future.
3 is death really that big of a deal, for Rashid to interfere?
4 indeed, but what does it actually cause that's so bad?
Yeah, the bad guys are acting and Rashid is reacting. I didn't mean to indicate otherwise. I'm saying Rashid pushed Harry to act because he knows Molly will be important later, and that as things stand she will die without Harry's intervention.
1. It doesn't require alternate timeline knowledge. It only requires knowledge of possible futures. I see an important distinction there. If you can look into the future and see various possibilities, including the death of someone important to global events, you would want to take the steps you can to avoid it.
2. Rashid specifically knows that Molly is going to be important. Not to the degree of her becoming the Winter Lady, probably. But I think he knows who will be important as they relate to the Outsider conflict. The Winter Lady is important in the War, and Molly herself is critical in the first major on-page conflict with Outsiders. I don't mean to suggest that Rashid looked into the future and saw the events of Cold Days, because that would stretch credibility way too much for a mortal wizard. But I do think he knew that Molly would play an important role against the Outsiders, and that her death at the end of Proven Guilty would weaken Reality's chances. So he took steps to attempt to save her, and put her on the path that led to her current status.
3. I think Molly's is, yes.
4. I don't know what would happen if Rashid violates causality. I don't think anyone does, really.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on September 07, 2021, 08:56:19 PM
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“Molly, you need to know the facts. I know you’re tired and scared. But that doesn’t change a damned thing about what you did to them. You fucked around with their minds. You used magic to enslave them to your will, and the fact that you meant well by it doesn’t matter at all. Somewhere inside of them both, they know what you’ve done to them, subconsciously. They’ll try to fight it. Regain control of their own choices. And that struggle is going to tear their psyches to shreds.“
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 07, 2021, 10:59:08 PM
My theory has always been that Molly was the focus of PG because someone knew (or believed in the possibility) that she would one day become the Winter Lady. The fetches were intended to draw Harry's attention to Molly's use of black magic, because without him, she would have certainly been caught, tried, and executed. The main whole-series outcome of Proven Guilty is Molly becoming Harry's apprentice, setting her on a path to replace Maeve as Winter Lady.
Personally, I find it convenient that the first fetch assault accomplished three things: it sealed up Pell's theater, attracted Harry's attention, and framed Molly's... boyfriend? Side piece? I don't know what the cool kids call it these days. Molly was a beacon, and so was the guy (because he was the target of black magic and had the scent of fear that attracted them).
In my opinion, the Arctis Tor attack succeeded at the intended objective: clearing the way for Harry's party. Harry, Thomas, Murphy, and Charity barely had enough in them to handle the fetches; if Mab's elite bodyguards were still kicking, they almost certainly would've failed.
The players we know about:
1. Mab
2. Maeve
3. The Arctis Tor Attackers (speculated in the books to be Thorned Namshiel; at the very least, it appears to be someone capable of using Hellfire)
4. Molly
5. Lily and Fix
6. Nemesis
7. Rashid
Other potential players:
1. Uriel (or other agents of TWG)
2. A third party who may or may not be misleading the Fetches

...

Etc., etc. Basically, if Molly bites the dust and Harry throws down with the Council, everything goes down with them. So it's my belief that someone (likely someones) knew she was going to be important, and helped push the attack on Arctis Tor to make sure things worked out as they did.
Molly is definitely the focus of PG, and I think that time travel shenanigans were definitely involved.  Here's my current theory with some unanswered questions.

Assumption:  The last book before the BAT will be the time travel book because every detective story needs a reveal near the end to show the audience the answer to the mystery.  The mystery in the Dresden Files is figuring out the actions and goals of the Black Council/Circle.  To give the readers that information, Jim will need to put Harry's eyes on key events that were impossible in the earlier books, hence the time travel.  It's also nice fan service to give dead characters another appearance.
To extend this assumption, Harry is traveling back in time and working in the background of several case files books, notably PG for this portion of the theory.

Harry goes back in time in order to preserve his timeline.  Standard time travel rules say you shouldn't meet your past self, so he works only in the background of stories.  PG gets started when the Gatekeeper gives PG!Harry a message to look out for dark magic.  Bob explains that messages like that have to be intentionally vague or risk changing the timeline by themselves.  My theory is that future!Harry gives Rashid the message to send to himself, and Mab becomes aware of future!Harry.  They're both at the Outer Gates.  future!Harry is also the Winter Knight, meaning Mab can make definitive statements about Harry becoming her knight without lying (which fae can't do).  It also gives Rashid information about future!Harry one day going against the Council that he mentions later in TC.  This also motivates PG!Mab to send fetches at future!Harry's request to get the first attack on Pell and PG!Harry's attention. 

future!Harry is trying to keep Molly from becoming a full-fledged warlock without changing his timeline.  Sandra Marlin gave her the idea to use fear as a motivator (suspicious, but maybe innocent) that set her on the road to warlock-dom.  If no one intervenes, Molly is going to go to the dark side where no one can help her.

----
Edit:  Forgot to add the car crash at the beginning of PG. 
If no one intervened, Harry would have used a broken Little Chicago to search for dark magic and killed himself.  Instead, future!Harry gets in an old car and wrecks PG!Harry to delay him enough that Molly's phone call interrupts his preparations.  The oldness of the car is the giveaway that it's a wizard driving.
----

Here's where the theory gets a bit murky.  Mab sends the first fetch attack on Pell (similar warning tactics were used by Mab in SmF with the Hobs and the Archive).  We also know that Maeve reveals her Nemesis infection to Mab in PG based on Mab being so upset she loses her voice in later books.  That means that Maeve has to be an active player in PG that bumps her elbow or that future!Harry tells her.  I think the first is more likely.  I put the second fetch attack on Maeve sending the fetches.  This way, she can confuse Mab's warning to PG!Harry. 

Questions that still need answers:
1)  Glau the jann and Madrigal Raith - Who set them up to be a cutout / fall guy?  How did they know to do that?
2)  What are the details with the third attack?  Did Mab send the three fetches to grab Molly (or did Harry really redirect them like he thought)?  Who sent the Scarecrow / Eldest Fetch?
3)  Arctis Tor:  Who were the attackers?  What was the attackers' goal?  Did they succeed?
4)  Why didn't Mab work with Summer and allow both faerie courts to make the Red Court pay for intruding on their territory?  This is likely related to the Arctis Tor attack.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on September 08, 2021, 12:53:06 AM
Quote from: WOJ
Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments–exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

(Which goes to show that while Mab may be canny to an inhuman degree, she isn’t infallible.  Just way closer to infallible than us.)
Which of course means if the way had been cleared Mab cleared it.
Quote from: Proven Guilty
Four attackers, this time. Four of them at least.
So four came and were detected by the web.
Quote from: Proven Guilty
And they grabbed her. The Reaper and the Scarecrow. And they carried her out the door. She was screaming…” He bit his lip. “I tried to stop them, but Hammerhand chased me.
Just to make the record clear this all occurs before the event's of the Fool Moon Garage which means the Scarecrow was already here.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 08, 2021, 01:05:48 AM
Which of course means if the way had been cleared Mab cleared it.

So four came and were detected by the web.

Just to make the record clear this all occurs before the event's of the Fool Moon Garage which means the Scarecrow was already here.
The Scarecrow was at the Fool Moon garage roughly the same time that Molly was being abducted.  Harry's web spell detected the fetches, Harry sends them to the fear beacon Molly, and Harry gets abducted by Madrigal Raith after polishing off a stray fetch at the convention.  Madrigal takes Harry to the garage where the Scarecrow attacks while the other fetches abduct Molly from the Carpenter home.

Mab definitely allowed Harry and company access to Arctis Tor, but that didn't require her to sacrifice her elite troll guards.  I don't think you're saying this, but the Arctis Tor attack doesn't seem to be Mab's idea.  More like something where she outmaneuvered someone else.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on September 08, 2021, 05:37:21 AM
What the text said is sufficient to me. Thorned Namshiel did the deed.  There is a backstory involving the Circle or whoever. But one of the  primary mysteries is why didn't Mab retaliate? That attack is why. Jim obscures the timing of the attack but it can't be earlier then mid Dead Beat and it happened before Harry got there in PG. It's notable that Summer didn't appear to know about the attack or the fact that Lea was on ice.  You might think that Mab was keeping it secret out of concern for what Summer might do.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on September 08, 2021, 10:37:47 AM
What the text said is sufficient to me. Thorned Namshiel did the deed.  There is a backstory involving the Circle or whoever. But one of the  primary mysteries is why didn't Mab retaliate? That attack is why. Jim obscures the timing of the attack but it can't be earlier then mid Dead Beat and it happened before Harry got there in PG. It's notable that Summer didn't appear to know about the attack or the fact that Lea was on ice.  You might think that Mab was keeping it secret out of concern for what Summer might do.

Revenge is a dish best served cold,  when you are immortal you can afford to take your time.. Mab will wait until the time is right.  Look how long it took her to get back at Nic, also it may not only have been for Marcone that she did it.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: The_Sibelis on September 08, 2021, 01:43:51 PM
Again, and I don't know how clearer to pronounce this, the attack doesn't explain why mab doesn't later retaliate, which is the key question levied by everyone about the situation. This is why the whamps are capturing little folk in WK, to measure there response. Because someone did something they well know should have gotten an eventual response, but it never did.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on September 08, 2021, 02:50:32 PM
Again, and I don't know how clearer to pronounce this, the attack doesn't explain why mab doesn't later retaliate, which is the key question levied by everyone about the situation. This is why the whamps are capturing little folk in WK, to measure there response. Because someone did something they well know should have gotten an eventual response, but it never did.

Was it?  The impression I got was the the White Court were enslaving for lack of a better word the Little Folk because they are mostly disregarded by either the Winter or the Summer Court.  Mab calls them "the lowest," in Summer Knight so I doubt the White Court were trying to measure whether or not they'd get a rise out of either Mab or Titania on the matter.  They were actually a bit surprised that Harry objected and demanded their release if I remember correctly.  It is because he cared when no one else did that Harry has their fierce loyalty according to Toot.

You can say that by humiliating Nic, forcing him to sacrifice his daughter was pretty good retaliation.  Yes, Marcone supposedly was the reason, but I wouldn't be shocked if she had other reasons as in payback for the attack.  One reason is though she might know that Namshiel used hell fire on Arctis Tor, she also knows he wouldn't have been the one behind the attack. 
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: The_Sibelis on September 08, 2021, 02:55:50 PM
Was it?  The impression I got was the the White Court were enslaving for lack of a better word the Little Folk because they are mostly disregarded by either the Winter or the Summer Court.  Mab calls them "the lowest," in Summer Knight so I doubt the White Court were trying to measure whether or not they'd get a rise out of either Mab or Titania on the matter.  They were actually a bit surprised that Harry objected and demanded their release if I remember correctly.  It is because he cared when no one else did that Harry has their fierce loyalty according to Toot.
yes, Harry even confronts them about that being there reason. Get a rise, measure the response, whichever way you say it, you just agreed with the premise. Although I wouldn't say enslaved, they just captured them, they didn't put them to work.

Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on September 08, 2021, 04:22:57 PM
Mab has had her revenge on everyone she can find.  The plan and attack that started in Grave Peril, is defeated, finally, in Cold Days.  Nemesis ploy has been defeated. The Reds are all dead. That attack cost her a Knight and her daughter and crippled Lea.

In Proven Guilty, at her weakest, she fears an attack by Summer and has been attacked by the Phantom Menace. She is concealing her weakness from her enemies both real and imagined. She smiles at the end because Harry has done what she couldn't do, reveal what Summer would do were she to remove her troops from the border.

Lara is testing Mab's limits when she uses the fairies as lanterns.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: The_Sibelis on September 08, 2021, 04:35:13 PM
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The Reds are all dead
yep, by Harry's hand. Mab even admits she let Lea have more reign in CH because of the recompense she was owed. But again the off thing is why she didn't move to get recompense in the way everyone expected her to. In the most vital way, she passed that debt along to someone else. A very fairy thing to do if say, you made a deal not to retaliate on a matter.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on September 08, 2021, 05:30:41 PM
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Lara is testing Mab's limits when she uses the fairies as lanterns.

Did she?  Mab hasn't done a thing about that, in fact it sounds like she continues to owe Lara.  When Harry demanded the little folk be freed he wasn't the Winter Knight.  Toot may wear Winter Colors now, but his allegiance is to the Za'Lord..
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yes, Harry even confronts them about that being there reason. Get a rise, measure the response, whichever way you say it, you just agreed with the premise. Although I wouldn't say enslaved, they just captured them, they didn't put them to work.

But Harry wasn't Winter Knight at the time, he didn't free them on behalf of Mab or in her name.. Harry did it because he felt it was the right thing to do, Mab had nothing to do with it.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 08, 2021, 05:52:23 PM
Mab has had her revenge on everyone she can find.  The plan and attack that started in Grave Peril, is defeated, finally, in Cold Days.  Nemesis ploy has been defeated. The Reds are all dead. That attack cost her a Knight and her daughter and crippled Lea.

In Proven Guilty, at her weakest, she fears an attack by Summer and has been attacked by the Phantom Menace. She is concealing her weakness from her enemies both real and imagined. She smiles at the end because Harry has done what she couldn't do, reveal what Summer would do were she to remove her troops from the border.

Lara is testing Mab's limits when she uses the fairies as lanterns.
The whole reason the big powers are freaking out in PG is because Mab was not allowing a joint faerie revenge on the Reds.  Instead, she kept forces on her borders to threaten Summer.  It confused Summer and prompted Eb to send Harry in to figure out what went screwy with Mab.

Arctis Tor is probably involved, but that whole battle is confusing.  It was bad enough to kill elite trolls, but not bad enough that Mab got nervous and called in border forces.  Not until Harry used Summer fire on the Winter Wellspring and basically did it for Mab (allowing for a one-time Summer attack on the Reds).  Everyone knew what Summer would do when Mab had a less threatening posture against them; that's not a mystery.

The explanation for why Mab didn't allow for retaliation can't be just "the Arctis Tor attack".  That's like asking why the sunset is red and answering "because of the atmosphere".  It's so incomplete that it doesn't really even answer the question.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on September 08, 2021, 06:59:28 PM
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The explanation for why Mab didn't allow for retaliation can't be just "the Arctis Tor attack".  That's like asking why the sunset is red and answering "because of the atmosphere".  It's so incomplete that it doesn't really even answer the question.

That doesn't mean she won't go in for covert retaliation for the attack on Arctis Tor, Marcone was just a good excuse and cover for her real motives.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 08, 2021, 07:31:56 PM
That doesn't mean she won't go in for covert retaliation for the attack on Arctis Tor, Marcone was just a good excuse and cover for her real motives.
Some Denarian (with hints that it was Namshiel) attacked Arctis Tor, but that's not the retaliation we're talking about.  The Reds violated Mab's and Titania's territories, and Mab didn't allow any retaliation against them in PG. 

In the usual sequence of events, both Summer and Winter go after the Reds immediately like Eb and the White Council were expecting.  This points to weird circumstances that we don't fully understand.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on September 08, 2021, 08:33:30 PM
Exactly who would have led her troops and who would have protected Arctis Tor?
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 08, 2021, 08:42:21 PM
Exactly who would have led her troops and who would have protected Arctis Tor?
Kringle, Cat Sith, Grimmalken, the Red Cap....  Those are just the characters where we have names.  Any of them could lead groups of Winter forces against rampires.

Edit:  Took out Sarissa.  On further thought, I don't think she could have herself led an attack against Reds.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on September 08, 2021, 08:59:10 PM
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Some Denarian (with hints that it was Namshiel) attacked Arctis Tor, but that's not the retaliation we're talking about.  The Reds violated Mab's and Titania's territories, and Mab didn't allow any retaliation against them in PG.

 True enough, but consider what her main goal was, it was Harry.  Do you doubt that she didn't pull or couldn't pull strings so in the end Harry had no good options other than becoming her Knight in Changes?  He went to Marcone for help, was turned down, he went to Vadderung, he was turned down and pointed in Mab's direction, even Uriel got into the act.. Once Harry consented, Lea was sent in to help, going through the Ways was how they were able to travel to C.I. and Harry proceeded to wipe out the Red Court.. I'd call that pretty good pay back, wouldn't you?  Like I said, someone immortal or nearly so has a different sense of time that mere mortals, they can afford to wait until the timing and conditions are perfect.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 08, 2021, 09:22:18 PM
True enough, but consider what her main goal was, it was Harry.  Do you doubt that she didn't pull or couldn't pull strings so in the end Harry had no good options other than becoming her Knight in Changes?  He went to Marcone for help, was turned down, he went to Vadderung, he was turned down and pointed in Mab's direction, even Uriel got into the act.. Once Harry consented, Lea was sent in to help, going through the Ways was how they were able to travel to C.I. and Harry proceeded to wipe out the Red Court.. I'd call that pretty good pay back, wouldn't you?  Like I said, someone immortal or nearly so has a different sense of time that mere mortals, they can afford to wait until the timing and conditions are perfect.
In the usual sequence of events, both Summer and Winter go after the Reds immediately like Eb and the White Council were expecting.  This points to weird circumstances that we don't fully understand.

Mab could retaliate against the Reds in PG and still get Harry as Winter Knight in Changes.  She just didn't jump on the chance to do so initially for some reason.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on September 08, 2021, 09:53:51 PM
Kringle, Cat Sith, Grimmalken, the Red Cap....  Those are just the characters where we have names.  Any of them could lead groups of Winter forces against rampires.

Edit:  Took out Sarissa.  On further thought, I don't think she could have herself led an attack against Reds.
No, no, no and no. Captains captain and Generals General.  Kringal is an Honorary title.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 08, 2021, 10:19:36 PM
No, no, no and no. Captains captain and Generals General.  Kringal is an Honorary title.
It wouldn't be a war.  It's a lesson that the Reds shouldn't cross into Mab's territory.  Captains are exactly what you want.


Kringle is a winter king (which doesn't mean much by itself except an accepted level of power and reputation), and Mab has worked well with him in the past.  No idea what you mean by honorary title.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on September 08, 2021, 11:03:40 PM
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Mab could retaliate against the Reds in PG and still get Harry as Winter Knight in Changes.  She just didn't jump on the chance to do so initially for some reason.

No, I don't think so, if Marcone [ a member of the Accords and a close ally of Mab] had agreed to help Harry save his daughter, the odds against Harry becoming her Winter Knight went higher.. If Vadderung, [another member of the Accords and Mab ally] had also agree the odds would have gone up higher still.. And Uriel?  Who knows what his motives were, but my point is Mab is very good at achieving her goals.  In Changes she achieved two of them, wiping out the Red Court, getting her revenge with clean hands, no blame would be pointed in her direction, and she got the Winter Knight she wanted in the process.  If she were writing this post I am sure she'd take great relish in explaining how she did it, while putting the blame elsewhere.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 08, 2021, 11:15:54 PM
No, I don't think so, if Marcone [ a member of the Accords and a close ally of Mab] had agreed to help Harry save his daughter, the odds against Harry becoming her Winter Knight went higher.. If Vadderung, [another member of the Accords and Mab ally] had also agree the odds would have gone up higher still.. And Uriel?  Who knows what his motives were, but my point is Mab is very good at achieving her goals.  In Changes she achieved two of them, wiping out the Red Court, getting her revenge with clean hands, no blame would be pointed in her direction, and she got the Winter Knight she wanted in the process.  If she were writing this post I am sure she'd take great relish in explaining how she did it, while putting the blame elsewhere.
Mab retaliating against the Reds in PG wouldn't change anything with the Harry/Marcone, the Harry/Vadderung, or the Harry/Uriel relationships.  It doesn't change Harry's trajectory of becoming her knight at all.  Angling Harry to become her knight isn't the reason that Mab held back in PG either.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on September 08, 2021, 11:39:10 PM
It wouldn't be a war.  It's a lesson that the Reds shouldn't cross into Mab's territory.  Captains are exactly what you want.


Kringle is a winter king (which doesn't mean much by itself except an accepted level of power and reputation), and Mab has worked well with him in the past.  No idea what you mean by honorary title.
When Lily meets Harry with Fix at Mac's this is discussed.  And as I pointed out to you prior to this they don't know that Lea is compromised.  Or that Maeve is.  Putting anybody else on the field exposes that secret. And runs the risk of drawing an attack from Summer. I mean honorary in the sense that he really isn't of Winter. This is in the text.
Quote
“All right,” I murmured. “Mab’s got a man in the penalty box. She wants to take the offensive before Summer pushes a power play, and she’s looking for ways to even the odds. If Summer goes running off to take on the Reds, it will give her a chance to strike.” I shook my head. “I don’t pretend to know Mab very well, but she isn’t suicidal. If the imbalance is so dangerous, why is she keeping the Winter Knight alive to begin with? And she must see what the consequences of another Winter-Summer war would be.” I looked back and forth between them. “Right?”

“Unfortunately,” Lily said quietly, “our intelligence about the internal politics of Winter is very limited—and Mab is not the sort to reveal her mind to another. I do not know if she realizes the potential danger. Her actions of late have been…” She closed her eyes for a moment and then said, with some obvious effort, “Erratic.”
Summer isn't all about sunshine and posies. Harry states it bass ackwards.  This is precisely what Mab fears. Namshiel is supporting the side, keeping Mab pinned increases the paranoia and has everyone thinking she may be crazy.  And lets the Reds rampage. YMMV but this works for me.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on September 09, 2021, 03:32:57 AM
Mab retaliating against the Reds in PG wouldn't change anything with the Harry/Marcone, the Harry/Vadderung, or the Harry/Uriel relationships.  It doesn't change Harry's trajectory of becoming her knight at all.  Angling Harry to become her knight isn't the reason that Mab held back in PG either.

No, but it is something she kept in her back pocket for later.  Also consider, Mab had herself on ice at the time, it wasn't just Lea taking the cure.  Mab also had contact with the Knife, my feeling has always been that she feared that she herself may have been infected, which could have led to a total disaster if she acted.  While in the healing ice, Mab wouldn't have been able to act.. Considering Harry's conversation with the infected Lea, if Mab was indeed infected and not restrained it would have been disaster.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 09, 2021, 04:10:52 AM
No, but it is something she kept in her back pocket for later.  Also consider, Mab had herself on ice at the time, it wasn't just Lea taking the cure.  Mab also had contact with the Knife, my feeling has always been that she feared that she herself may have been infected, which could have led to a total disaster if she acted.  While in the healing ice, Mab wouldn't have been able to act.. Considering Harry's conversation with the infected Lea, if Mab was indeed infected and not restrained it would have been disaster.
Mab wasn't healing herself.  Lea was in the Winter Wellspring.  Mab was watching Harry fight the Eldest Fetch as a spectator, hence the wink at the end.  The other frozen figures were Mab's prisoners, like Slate.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on September 09, 2021, 10:46:01 AM
Mab wasn't healing herself.  Lea was in the Winter Wellspring.  Mab was watching Harry fight the Eldest Fetch as a spectator, hence the wink at the end.  The other frozen figures were Mab's prisoners, like Slate.

If I remember correctly Harry didn't toss anything down Lea's throat, he talked to her.  Who knows what that wink meant, because if you will remember Lea talked sanely for part of the time as well.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 09, 2021, 03:24:59 PM
Yes, Harry talked to Lea while she was getting Nemesis walled off in her mind by Mab. Mab took a break, dealt with the Arctic’s Tor attack, and watched her favorite knight candidate deal with a problem he shouldn’t have been able to handle but did anyway. Mab was pleased with the result and winked at him as he left.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on September 09, 2021, 04:13:11 PM
Yes, Harry talked to Lea while she was getting Nemesis walled off in her mind by Mab. Mab took a break, dealt with the Arctic’s Tor attack, and watched her favorite knight candidate deal with a problem he shouldn’t have been able to handle but did anyway. Mab was pleased with the result and winked at him as he left.

Could be, but then she planned her revenge and with the added bonus of snagging Harry for her Knight in the process.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 09, 2021, 04:38:49 PM
Could be, but then she planned her revenge and with the added bonus of snagging Harry for her Knight in the process.
After making the decision to not retaliate for no clear reason and confusing both Summer and the White Council.  Something happening after something else doesn't mean it happened because of the first thing.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on September 09, 2021, 07:49:33 PM
After making the decision to not retaliate for no clear reason and confusing both Summer and the White Council.  Something happening after something else doesn't mean it happened because of the first thing.

One possible reason, she had been infected, so clearly retaliation under those circumstances is risky at best.. Mab knows that, she also knows if she gave herself time and treatment like Lea she could overcome Nemesis.  Why she kept it all secret?  Imagine the chaos if even a hint that she might be infected got out.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 09, 2021, 09:49:10 PM
One possible reason, she had been infected, so clearly retaliation under those circumstances is risky at best.. Mab knows that, she also knows if she gave herself time and treatment like Lea she could overcome Nemesis.  Why she kept it all secret?  Imagine the chaos if even a hint that she might be infected got out.
No, I don't at all believe Mab was worried about herself being infected.  Ordering fetches to bring Molly in is WoJ confirmed, and that kind of action isn't any more drastic than ordering her forces to teach the Reds a lesson.  The idea that Mab needed healing from Nemesis doesn't work.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on September 09, 2021, 10:01:18 PM
No, I don't at all believe Mab was worried about herself being infected.  Ordering fetches to bring Molly in is WoJ confirmed, and that kind of action isn't any more drastic than ordering her forces to teach the Reds a lesson.  The idea that Mab needed healing from Nemesis doesn't work.

Sure it does, those infected with Nemesis don't act irrational all of the time.  If they did they'd be too easily spotted.. Take Justine, totally infected when she worked to get pregnant then black mail Thomas into an assassination plot, she almost had Harry completely fooled when he went to break the news to her, then he couldn't put his finger on it, something seemed a bit off, is all.  However he didn't have time to figure it out.  Lea was mostly rational, rational enough to realize what had happened to her and appealed to Mab for a cure, but not before she had spread it to Maeve.  Mab wore the Knife also for a time, so it is completely logical that she also suffered a degree of infection or feared that she had to go in for prophylactic treatment.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on September 09, 2021, 10:40:17 PM
Quote
I frowned a little and thought about it for a minute. Then I asked, “Theoretically speaking,” I said, “what kinds of things might prevent Winter and Summer from reacting to an incursion by another nation?”

Lily’s eyes sparkled, and she nodded to Fix. The little guy turned to me and said, “In theory, only a few things could do it.  ”

“Uh-huh,” I said. “Go on.”

“A much more serious reason would be an issue of the balance of power between the Courts of Summer and Winter. Any reaction to the invasion would alter what resources one would have at hand. If one Court did not act in concert with the other, it would provide an ideal opportunity for a surprise assault while the other had its strategic back turned.”
Now if you read the rest of the passage they talk about the balance of forces.
Quote
“Whatever,” I said. “There’s a Summer Knight. There’s a Winter Knight. What’s unbalanced about that?”

“He isn’t exerting his power,” Fix replied. “He’s a prisoner, and everyone knows it. He has no freedom, no will. He can’t stand on the side of Winter as its champion. So far as the tension between the Courts goes, the Winter Knight might as well not exist.”
Then Harry talks some BS about Mab attacking and suggesting that she isn't that crazy.  Enter Maeve who suggests that Mab is that crazy.  You know this isn't true, Harry on the other hand is clueless. It's part of Maeve's plan. The reality is that the imbalance is worse than anyone at that point in the book is aware of, because Mab is down 3 of her starting four. Then some random Denarian walks to her front door and huffs and puffs and blows in her effing door with Hellfire. Mab being made of sterner stuff than me doesn't wet her panties.  She does wonder which, of the small number of people who could open a portal in that close, did so, with Summer in the running for Mab's a--hole of the week award.

Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 09, 2021, 11:13:56 PM
Now if you read the rest of the passage they talk about the balance of forces.Then Harry talks some BS about Mab attacking and suggesting that she isn't that crazy.  Enter Maeve who suggests that Mab is that crazy.  You know this isn't true, Harry on the other hand is clueless. It's part of Maeve's plan. The reality is that the imbalance is worse than anyone at that point in the book is aware of, because Mab is down 3 of her starting four. Then some random Denarian walks to her front door and huffs and puffs and blows in her effing door with Hellfire. Mab being made of sterner stuff than me doesn't wet her panties.  She does wonder which, of the small number of people who could open a portal in that close, did so, with Summer in the running for Mab's a--hole of the week award.
Mab being down her top three agents is getting closer, but Mab didn't know she was down her top three agents at that point.  Maeve's actions in PG revealed that; after Mab didn't act against the Reds.  She was down Lea, but Slate was voluntarily down.  At any point, Mab could have appointed a fill-in Winter Knight while she convinced Harry to be their replacement.  That temp Winter Knight would have been Fix's match very quickly.  Temp knight can be sacrificed on the Stone Table just as much as Slate when Harry is cornered to take the mantle.

In any respect, if Mab was worried about bluffing against weakness, playing everything like normal seems to be the way to preserve the balance instead of making Summer and everyone else extra curious about what was wrong with an erratic Mab.



Sure it does, those infected with Nemesis don't act irrational all of the time.  If they did they'd be too easily spotted.. Take Justine, totally infected when she worked to get pregnant then black mail Thomas into an assassination plot, she almost had Harry completely fooled when he went to break the news to her, then he couldn't put his finger on it, something seemed a bit off, is all.  However he didn't have time to figure it out.  Lea was mostly rational, rational enough to realize what had happened to her and appealed to Mab for a cure, but not before she had spread it to Maeve.  Mab wore the Knife also for a time, so it is completely logical that she also suffered a degree of infection or feared that she had to go in for prophylactic treatment.
No, if Mab was herself enough to order Molly brought in, she was herself enough to give the order to retaliate against the Reds.  Mab wasn't worried about herself being Nemesis infected.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on September 10, 2021, 02:15:03 AM
I somehow think that cutting a temps throat just to replace him with Harry would violate Winter law.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 10, 2021, 02:41:48 AM
I somehow think that cutting a temps throat just to replace him with Harry would violate Winter law.
Mother Winter nearly did it to Harry.  The queens can do whatever to court affiliated mortals.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on September 10, 2021, 03:13:18 AM
Quote
Mab being down her top three agents is getting closer, but Mab didn't know she was down her top three agents at that point.

She knew she was down a Knight, and her right hand go to Fae, Lea... That is two out of the three.

Quote
At any point, Mab could have appointed a fill-in Winter Knight while she convinced Harry to be their replacement.
Could she? I doubt it is that simple, 1] the new Knight would have to be willing to kill Slate,2] the new Knight would have to handle the power of the mantle and take orders,3] I doubt the new Knight would resign, so someone would have to be willing to kill him or her.
Quote
“A much more serious reason would be an issue of the balance of power between the Courts of Summer and Winter. Any reaction to the invasion would alter what resources one would have at hand. If one Court did not act in concert with the other, it would provide an ideal opportunity for a surprise assault while the other had its strategic back turned.”

There is your answer..
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on September 10, 2021, 03:13:42 AM
I never said she couldn't, it just doesn't fit my internal picture of Mab.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 10, 2021, 03:27:00 AM
She knew she was down a Knight, and her right hand go to Fae, Lea... That is two out of the three.
Could she? I doubt it is that simple, 1] the new Knight would have to be willing to kill Slate,2] the new Knight would have to handle the power of the mantle and take orders,3] I doubt the new Knight would resign, so someone would have to be willing to kill him or her.
There is your answer..
One and a half.  Finding a real piece of work to be temp Winter Knight wouldn't be hard for the scary queen of faerie.  It wouldn't even have to be a good candidate to be as good as Fix.
Your excerpt is just the explanation on why Summer couldn't act without coordination of Winter.  It doesn't answer why Mab ignored the Reds at the time.



I never said she couldn't, it just doesn't fit my internal picture of Mab.
Mab is efficient and probably wouldn't act like that without a strategy, but the point is that being down a knight was voluntary on her part.  SK was a crisis because it risked losing the Summer Knight mantle permanently.  Mab icing Slate for a while is an imbalance on a much smaller scale.  It makes the bluffing against weakness theory less likely.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on September 10, 2021, 05:14:21 AM
Quote
One and a half.  Finding a real piece of work to be temp Winter Knight wouldn't be hard for the scary queen of faerie.  It wouldn't even have to be a good candidate to be as good as Fix.
She already had that in Slate and he was a traitorous disaster, no, though it was Maeve that picked him, Mab would make certain that mistake wouldn't be repeated.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 10, 2021, 05:28:06 AM
She already had that in Slate and he was a traitorous disaster, no, though it was Maeve that picked him, Mab would make certain that mistake wouldn't be repeated.
But things would have been even.  Knights are like paper cups.  Use them and replace as needed.  Mab was holding out for a really good one in Harry, but push come to shove, a temp works just fine until then.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on September 10, 2021, 10:13:38 AM
But things would have been even.  Knights are like paper cups.  Use them and replace as needed.  Mab was holding out for a really good one in Harry, but push come to shove, a temp works just fine until then.

Would they?  They weren't when Slate was Knight..  With the kind of power the mantle has, Knights are not like paper cups at all, a bad Knight is a lot worse than no Knight at all.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Second Aristh on September 10, 2021, 12:15:03 PM
Would they?  They weren't when Slate was Knight..  With the kind of power the mantle has, Knights are not like paper cups at all, a bad Knight is a lot worse than no Knight at all.
Sure they are.  Some of the faerie knights only get sent on one mission total before they need replacing.  You don't need anyone special to be an equal to Fix.  All he has going for him beyond a bit of bravery is the mantle's instincts.  Anyone of the caliber of Marcone's troubleshooters could be Winter Knight, and he finds enough of them in Chicago.  Mab isn't a worse recruiter than Marcone.
Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: morriswalters on September 10, 2021, 01:27:39 PM
As a Doylist the text is the text. If the passage I cited isn't meant to enlighten the reader, what exactly is the point?
Would they?  They weren't when Slate was Knight..  With the kind of power the mantle has, Knights are not like paper cups at all, a bad Knight is a lot worse than no Knight at all.
Well, in the practical sense killing the Knight just because you can would be a bad recruiting tactic. On the other hand keeping him alive under torture sends a massage that says, being a traitor has it's cost.

Title: Re: Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?
Post by: Mira on September 10, 2021, 04:56:56 PM
As a Doylist the text is the text. If the passage I cited isn't meant to enlighten the reader, what exactly is the point?Well, in the practical sense killing the Knight just because you can would be a bad recruiting tactic. On the other hand keeping him alive under torture sends a massage that says, being a traitor has it's cost.

 Be it a bad Knight,incompetent Knight, or no Knight, makes no difference really it upsets the power balance.