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The Dresden Files => DF Spoilers => Topic started by: peregrine on April 08, 2019, 10:09:37 PM

Title: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: peregrine on April 08, 2019, 10:09:37 PM
There's a variety of threads talking about how Cowl is Justin, or Simon, or other characters.  And while I can't explicitly rule them out because so much of the speculation involved is just speculation with little proof, I just don't like the idea.

So, here's my idea with very little about it, and then the question.  My idea is that Cowl is some relatively minor character in the White Council Harry has never met before.  He's been avoiding Harry since they first ran into each other, just to be safe.  From a plot point, I expect that Harry will unmask Cowl before he knows his identity, and then later will see him at the Council to then put a name to the face.

My question for you then is, assuming that it plays out like I think it will, which I admit is pure speculation, how will Harry react?  An immediate attack?  Denunciation in front of everyone?  Silence and then a personal interrogation session once they're alone?  Some other response?
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Cozarkian on April 08, 2019, 10:56:41 PM
I believe there is a WOJ implying Cowl is not simply a minor character unknown to Dresden. Something along the lines of "there is a reason they were hiding their identity."
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: peregrine on April 09, 2019, 12:07:19 AM
Quote from: Cozarkian on April 08, 2019, 10:56:41 PM
I believe there is a WOJ implying Cowl is not simply a minor character unknown to Dresden. Something along the lines of "there is a reason they were hiding their identity."
Yeah, but they're hiding it from EVERYONE.  Up to and possibly including the Kemmlerites.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: nadia.skylark on April 09, 2019, 01:11:50 AM
Quote
My idea is that Cowl is some relatively minor character in the White Council Harry has never met before.  He's been avoiding Harry since they first ran into each other, just to be safe.  From a plot point, I expect that Harry will unmask Cowl before he knows his identity, and then later will see him at the Council to then put a name to the face.

I like this! I've seen a bunch of arguments saying that Cowl has to be someone we've met because otherwise his unmasking will have no impact, but it never occurred to me that it could be the other way around, where Harry recognizes him when he's not in disguise.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: DonBugen on April 09, 2019, 06:04:27 AM
Hmm...  I dunno, I'm skeptical.  Jim likes his foreshadowing and his various pieces of Chekov's artillery.  I mean, we got at least two different mentions of Wizard Peabody before he was ever relevant to the story.  So I really, really think that we must've seen Cowl's alter-ego throughout the books, in one form or another.

The only wizard of the White Council who I can think who's appeared several times but doesn't have a name is Lucky, the poor sod who Mab almost killed when asking for passage through Winter in Summer Knight.  And I really, really don't think that Cowl is Lucky the Wizard.  I think there's a higher chance of him being the annoying mailman from chapter 1 of Storm Front.  That, at least, follows Scooby-Doo tradition.

Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Yuillegan on April 09, 2019, 07:56:27 AM
An interesting theory, but I think Cozarkian is correct about that WOJ. I think DonBugen also touches on the fact that JB is an award-winning, best selling novelist who is quite well educated on writing. Chances are (and if you think back to every book/poem/script etc analysis you may ever have done) that he will follow certain conventions of story writing for maximum effect. He may subvert them as well for gain, but the reason they are conventions is because they work.

So unless there is a really powerful reason for him to not use certain story-telling conventions, he probably will. In fact, he often does. There are some really great Dresden Files analysis' out there, and there is a mountain of info about story crafting that Jim himself has written. So I tend to use that as a base when constructing my own theories. And give JB some credit, his reveals are normally pretty good. I am sure when the time comes it will be a really good one regardless of who Cowl actually is.

And to answer your theory of what might happen, peregrine, if Dresden did recognise this background wizard at a Council summit as being Cowl (like the Wizard with the Curly mustache) - I think Harry being his normal level-headed self, would attempt to murder Cowl on the spot. And then settle for binding him when everyone had tried to restrain him. However, I would assume that the Cowl in your theory would have been preparing for such a thing (a la Emperor Palpatine), and turn it on Dresden somehow - perhaps even violently. But that's just my thinking.

Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: peregrine on April 09, 2019, 02:50:08 PM
For clarity's sake, what I think the WoJ about cowl we're talking about is.

Quote
1) About Cowl. Does he wear that hood because he KNOWS he'd be recognized without it, or does he just think they're terribly comfortable, and in the future everyone would be wearing them? Were we to see him without it, would the readers recognize him? Would Harry? Or is he just the guy who runs the omelet station at Edinburgh, and nobody pays him any attention?
Quote
Seriously? You just want me to answer that? :) Dude, have you seen the way I torture readers with that stuff? I will say, however, that the longer you've been around the wizardy world, the more paranoid you are about giving away information. /Any/ information. Your identity is a /huge/ and valuable piece of information to any wizardly foes, and if you're smart and you anticipate going up against them, you make damned sure you don't just give it away.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: groinkick on April 09, 2019, 05:33:54 PM
One thing that supports your argument is the duel between Cowl, and Dresden.  According to Jim those on the Senior Council would stomp Harry pretty easily.  So it wouldn't be someone as strong as say Eb.  I don't even think Cowl is as strong as Morgan, based on the duel.  Cowl does appear to surpass Harry's magical experience in other instances though....

I think this also shows that Cowl probably wouldn't be Simon, who as a member of the Senior Council wouldn't have difficulty with Harry in a duel.  Morgan seemed to think it impossible for Harry to beat Justin in a duel meaning he probably had a deal of respect for Justin.  That says Justin was probably a heavy hitter himself.  That could be a strike against Justin being Cowl even though Harry did apparently beat him in the past.  Justin if he survived would have another 10 - 15 years to get stronger, and more experienced as well making him tougher to deal with.

There is another possibility.  Cowl was sick, dying, or weakened (recovering from injuries) during the duel with Harry.  Either that or he telegraphed his shots at Harry to scare Harry with dangerous spells while at the same time winding up so Harry could avoid being killed by them.  Cowl "swaying" after using a spell does make me wonder about his power level though

Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: DonBugen on April 10, 2019, 12:06:35 AM
Groin - that theory, though, kind of dismisses Simon.  Then again, Simon's magic doesn't seem to really match up with Cowl's magic; Jim has gone on the record with saying that Simon's forte was Earth magic, and Cowl (if I remember correctly) fought with blasts of force.

Though I think Cowl would have stomped Harry pretty easily.  I think Harry got away because there were just too many unknowns in the situation - a combination between Harry's Hellfire and the Alphas would have made the encounter potentially too risky, when there really wasn't much to be gained by defeating Dresden in the first place.

Or it could have been just an alternate form of Harry not wanting to suddenly kill more of his friends in addition to his doppelganger Yes, definitely too risky.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Con on April 10, 2019, 04:45:26 AM
I think the biggest argument against Cowl being Justin other than Justin being dead according to WOJ is that Cowl was curious and eager to engage Harry in a duel to test his metal. Justin as Harry's mentor would already know what Harry is capable of , Cowl would also be more familiar in his interaction with Harry or demonstrate some knowledge of Harry's past or character.

Quote from: Dead Beat
‘Just as well,’ Cowl murmured. ‘I have wanted to see for myself what has the Wardens so nervous about you.’

Butcher, Jim. Dead Beat: 7 (The Dresden Files series) (p. 80). Little, Brown Book Group. Kindle Edition.

Also on a sidenote that I mentioned in the Fool Moon thread, given that Cowl and Kumori gave the Athame to Leanansidhe which in turn infected her with Nemesis.

Quote from: Dead Beat
‘You were the ones who gave the Leanansidhe that athame.’

Butcher, Jim. Dead Beat: 7 (The Dresden Files series) (p. 78). Little, Brown Book Group. Kindle Edition.
This is where we also get the ominous

Quote from: Dead Beat
Cowl. ‘A great many things of significance happened that night. Most of which you are not yet aware.’

Butcher, Jim. Dead Beat: 7 (The Dresden Files series) (p. 78). Little, Brown Book Group. Kindle Edition.

 What are the thoughts that Cowl was the one who gave the FBI the Hexenwulf pelts? It seems in character of gifting beings items that are Nemfected.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: peregrine on April 10, 2019, 05:33:30 AM
It seems plausible for Cowl to have given the belts, since we've also already seen him mentoring Vittorio, so pulling strings is well within his MO.

Also, just for further use, it's testing his mettle.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Yuillegan on April 10, 2019, 10:46:10 AM
I believe it is the running theory that Cowl was responsible for the Hexenwulf belts.

Con, isn't it possible that after a 14 years he might be interested to see how powerful and dangerous his former student has become? Remember, Dresden casts a sizeable shadow at this point. While he is testing Dresden out, the interaction was not unlike that between an old teacher and former pupil.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Con on April 10, 2019, 11:16:30 AM
Yuillegan possibly, I mean the scene could be read that way, Cowl certainly treats Kumori as his student. Admonishing her for wasting time. I mean I'd like for Cowl to be Justin almost as much as I'd like him to be Simon Pietrovich. But I just don't see Cowl as Justin not using the psychological advantage of dead mentor back from the grave. Justin was a master manipulator and abuser, that would be a huge psychological advantage particularly in the opening moves of a duel.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Yuillegan on April 10, 2019, 11:40:01 AM
My take is that it wasn't really a duel. I think Cowl was never particularly worried that Harry was going to beat him. Considering how the duel went, I think he could have killed him a lot faster. So I think there was no real need to reveal his identity to someone who he thought never would have beaten him, and he might decide to kill.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Kindler on April 10, 2019, 02:27:32 PM
Quote from: peregrine on April 10, 2019, 05:33:30 AM
It seems plausible for Cowl to have given the belts, since we've also already seen him mentoring Vittorio, so pulling strings is well within his MO.

Here's a Word of Jim that may have answered that question back in 2011:

Quote
Q: Have we met the people who created the Hexenwolf belts yet?

A: That’s another “I’m not gonna tell you” question. I will say, “kind of,” “not really,” and “yes.” But we’ll get into more of that during Cold Days as well.
Link in spoiler:
(click to show/hide)

Basically, I think that's Jim saying it was Kringle. We've "kind of" "not really" but have met him at that point, in his Mask as Vadderung, but not the one that actually handed the belts to the FBI dudes. It's not until Cold Days that we met Kringle, who seems to be significantly more violent than you'd think. Not only that, it makes a twisted sort of sense; the FBI agents wanted the power to kill particularly untouchable criminals, namely Marcone. So Kringle whistles up the belts, hands them off, and watches. When he sees that Marcone successfully survived an assault by multiple hexenwulfen and a Loup-Garou, well... that's one way to earn Odin's respect. I don't think it's a coincidence that the next time we see Marcone (Death Masks, three books later), he's already hired Monoc Securities—which, as I understand it, is not something just anyone can do.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: CrusherJen on April 10, 2019, 03:23:23 PM
That's an interesting theory, and one I'd never really considered.

It's got me wondering whether or not the belts might have somehow, directly or indirectly, come from the Erlking and his court. The FBI agents were, in a way, hunters, and those belts definitely gave them more hunting skills...

They still could have been delivered by Kringle, or through some other means (especially if they were tainted by Nemesis after they left the court.)
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: wardenferry419 on April 10, 2019, 11:32:02 PM
Are there any Warden-level wizards that have made appearances and are not firmly in the "good guy" category?
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: nadia.skylark on April 11, 2019, 12:47:08 AM
Quote
Are there any Warden-level wizards that have made appearances and are not firmly in the "good guy" category?

You mean aside from all the Wardens we see but who Harry doesn't interact with much?
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: wardenferry419 on April 11, 2019, 01:22:31 AM
Kinda yes and no. I mean Cowl has to be a Warden to SC level wizard with at least 100 years under his belt. Someone with a European background. Someone who has either or been mentioned a few times in their non-Cowl identity. Someone who is familiar about Harry but not strongly connected to Harry at present. There is probably other criteria as well. Eliminate those that don't fit the character profile than focus on those that do.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: nadia.skylark on April 11, 2019, 01:43:01 AM
Quote
Kinda yes and no. I mean Cowl has to be a Warden to SC level wizard with at least 100 years under his belt. Someone with a European background. Someone who has either or been mentioned a few times in their non-Cowl identity. Someone who is familiar about Harry but not strongly connected to Harry at present. There is probably other criteria as well. Eliminate those that don't fit the character profile than focus on those that do.

I think the most memorable of the background Wardens was Warden Thorsen, whose name Harry couldn't remember.

It could also be Chandler--he's not old enough, but we have a WoJ that his specialty is time magic, so...
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: peregrine on April 11, 2019, 01:54:10 AM
There's also Wild Bill.  In fact, most of the Wardens we know little enough about that Harry could easily have misjudged them. 
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: BobbyWac on April 15, 2019, 04:32:45 PM
Cowl could also be Eb. It's possible that the only reason Harry didn't die in that duel is that Cowl (Eb) just didn't want to kill him.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Kindler on April 15, 2019, 06:29:50 PM
Quote from: wardenferry419 on April 10, 2019, 11:32:02 PM
Are there any Warden-level wizards that have made appearances and are not firmly in the "good guy" category?

Klaus the Toymaker comes to mind. Old enough that he was considered for the Senior Council about half a dozen places after Eb, and declines in favor of his "senior" (though when you're measuring age in centuries and decades, Eb may only be ten or twenty years older). I've often toyed (I like puns, all right?) with the idea that Klaus declined the seat mostly because he didn't want to be on the Senior Council and fall under greater scrutiny, and ultimately reveal himself.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: DonBugen on April 17, 2019, 03:30:27 PM
But Klaus employs much of his magic through toys and objects, and Cowl showed no sign of that.
Quote
Are there any Warden-level wizards that have made appearances and are not firmly in the "good guy" category?
Is there really ANYONE who is firmly in the "good guy" category?  I mean, literally, all Warden Chandler would have had to do was intercept the letter intended for Dresden from Anastasia in Changes and substitute one of his own, and suddenly Dresden not only think's he's got Ana's full trust, but all the readers think he's an A-OK guy, too.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Kindler on April 17, 2019, 06:12:54 PM
Well, yeah, but c'mon. How badass would it be for Cowl to whip out a whoopee cushion and level a city block with it?
More seriously, if Klaus is bothering to hide his identity, he's not going to employ his normal methods. Just because he uses toys as foci doesn't mean he only does that. After all, Eb doesn't always use the Blackstaff.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: wardenferry419 on April 17, 2019, 10:43:06 PM
Trying to remember some details from DB. Outside the bookstore, Harry glances at Cowl and Kumori. He notes that one seems a little taller than the other. If I remember correctly Cowl was the taller but not overly so. So, possibly in the 5'8" to 6'0" range. Cowl has "weathered arms." His build seems to be in the slight to normal range. His age is older than Harry with the "boy" reference. So, maybe, middle age for a wizard if not more. I would ballpark it at 100+ years. The "Goethe preference" may indicate an eastern European background. These are some of the details that are sticking in my brain.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Maz on April 18, 2019, 01:48:29 PM
With magic, anything is possible but Klaus is not remotely like Cowl.

Klaus is Belgian, small, has a round belly and cheeks.
Cowl, to my knowledge, is taller than Kumori, who can hold a knife to Dresden's throat.
Therefore, its highly unlikely.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Kindler on April 18, 2019, 03:19:04 PM
Shhhh, you're ruining my not-thought-out-at-all-theory about a guy who took down a bunch of Nazis (or was it WWI? Germans, probably, regardless) with a windup duck secretly being an evil mastermind.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: wardenferry419 on April 18, 2019, 11:34:28 PM
He could rule the world with a Slinky!
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Kindler on April 19, 2019, 05:08:34 PM
I shudder to think what he would be capable of with fidget spinners.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Snark Knight on April 19, 2019, 08:56:21 PM
Quote from: groinkick on April 09, 2019, 05:33:54 PM
One thing that supports your argument is the duel between Cowl, and Dresden.  According to Jim those on the Senior Council would stomp Harry pretty easily.  So it wouldn't be someone as strong as say Eb.  I don't even think Cowl is as strong as Morgan, based on the duel.  Cowl does appear to surpass Harry's magical experience in other instances though....

We don't know how tired Cowl might have been from other work before confronting Harry over the Erlking book, so I don't really agree with ruling Simon out just because he didn't wipe Harry out with his first shot. Maybe he was just sandbagging with the force blasts rather than use his best earth-based strikes - he could have been nervous Harry being blasted into a crater would have drawn Ebenezar to drop other matters and investigate.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: kbrizzle on April 28, 2019, 05:00:46 AM
I’ve posited in the other post about Justin being Cowl that Simon is simply the best candidate instead. If Justin is Cowl, he had Bob uninterrupted for more than a decade at least. Why didn’t he perform the Darkhallow at any point during this time? Simon on the other hand, tries to perform the Darkhallow a few years after his “death”.

As a Senior Council member older than Eb, Simon is likely more powerful; explaining how he was able to hit Harry harder than Eb ever had. Paolo Ortega (likely Nfected) led the charge to destroy Archangel. Simon had excellent relations with the vampire courts - Cowl is allied with Red Court & interferes in the White. Mavra clearly didn’t want Cowl (or the other 2) becoming necromantic gods.

Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Yuillegan on May 01, 2019, 12:20:37 AM
@kbrizzle,

See my other response to your post about Justin vs Simon as a candidate. Just wanted to add that while the fact that Simon being older would explain how strong he was...Harry honestly had no idea just how powerful Eb or even Leah was. He even said that Eb had only hit him in practice rounds. Now I think for the drama of the scene, that exposition by Harry was necessary. However we must remember that Eb blew the top of El Castillio with a word, and also caused Krakatoa, Tunguska etc. Seriously, had Eb hit Harry properly Harry would have died. Especially as some punk in training, let alone by the time he gets to Dead Beat. Leah slaughtered two Lord of the Outer Night in a moment. They were taken off guard, but I really think Harry had never properly dueled either of them and so his claim was misleading. Not to mention that while Harry may have fought Justin in earnest, he lost twice and we have no idea how he won the third round. Harry doesn't even talk about it. So I find a lot of Harry's earlier power rankings more than a little dubious. In saying that, Cowl is still likely seriously strong. JB wrote that scene to showcase Cowl so I imagine he was trying to show him a serious threat. So he may be stronger than the others, in fact we have almost never seen him go all out on assault. Every time he has been defeated it was almost just dumb luck while he was distracted.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Kindler on May 01, 2019, 05:19:06 PM
Quote from: kbrizzle on April 28, 2019, 05:00:46 AM
I’ve posited in the other post about Justin being Cowl that Simon is simply the best candidate instead. If Justin is Cowl, he had Bob uninterrupted for more than a decade at least. Why didn’t he perform the Darkhallow at any point during this time? Simon on the other hand, tries to perform the Darkhallow a few years after his “death”.

As a Senior Council member older than Eb, Simon is likely more powerful; explaining how he was able to hit Harry harder than Eb ever had. Paolo Ortega (likely Nfected) led the charge to destroy Archangel. Simon had excellent relations with the vampire courts - Cowl is allied with Red Court & interferes in the White. Mavra clearly didn’t want Cowl (or the other 2) becoming necromantic gods.

I'm not sure Simon was actually older than Eb. Arthur Langtry and Ebenezer are both over 300 years old, and the two of them are about the same age (they met when they were both 16). Ebenezer either strongly implies or states outright that he's simply never sought a seat on the Senior Council before because he wasn't interested. He only does so in Summer Knight (according to his words and Harry's interpretation at the time, which is perhaps biased considering he doesn't even know that he's the Blackstaff at this point) in order to protect Harry from the White Council vote.

From what I can tell, there's no indication of how old Simon was when he "died." For all we know, he could've been Luccio's age.

None of this is stating one way or another which one is older, only that it isn't confirmed in the series or by any Word of Jim I know about. I don't think it much matters for purposes of this conversation, though; I really, really, really, really, really doubt Ebenezer actually hit Harry with anything close to even fifteen percent of his power, ever. According to Harry, Eb didn't really give him much magical instruction anyway, so much as gave him the whole "With great power, comes enormous pains in your ass, and you're going to have to make sure you don't go psycho and murder or enslave a ton of people, otherwise you and I are both going to be killed by the wizard police. So quit your whining and learn how to ride this horse" bit instead.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Cozarkian on May 01, 2019, 09:20:10 PM
Quote from: groinkick on April 09, 2019, 05:33:54 PM
I think this also shows that Cowl probably wouldn't be Simon, who as a member of the Senior Council wouldn't have difficulty with Harry in a duel.  Morgan seemed to think it impossible for Harry to beat Justin in a duel meaning he probably had a deal of respect for Justin.  That says Justin was probably a heavy hitter himself.  That could be a strike against Justin being Cowl even though Harry did apparently beat him in the past.  Justin if he survived would have another 10 - 15 years to get stronger, and more experienced as well making him tougher to deal with.

There is another possibility.  Cowl was sick, dying, or weakened (recovering from injuries) during the duel with Harry.  Either that or he telegraphed his shots at Harry to scare Harry with dangerous spells while at the same time winding up so Harry could avoid being killed by them.  Cowl "swaying" after using a spell does make me wonder about his power level though

Another thought I just had. Justin or Simon could be body-snatchers like Corpsetaker. If they were forced to take a body of limited means they could still be attempting to return to their full power.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: g33k on May 01, 2019, 11:15:50 PM
I've got to agree that the Cowl/Harry duel outside the bookstore cannot reliably be taken as a measure of Cowl's strength...
 1. Cowl may have been previously tired/weakened.
 2. Cowl may have had reasons to "pull his punches."
 3. Cowl specifically wanted to test Harry, not kill him.
So we cannot judge Cowl's strength solely from that encounter.

Cowl is a Senior Council member (or maybe on the shortlist of nominees for next empty SC seat), or else a pretty-senior Warden.
 1.  He's just too strong for any other WC role.
 2.  He seems intimately aware of WC operations & filled with inside-info.
Harry caught Cowl's initial force-blast perfectly, and it STILL almost took Harry out; and although relatively-junior, Harry is still a magical heavyweight, a powerhouse wizard.  Overwhelming Harry by that degree, head-on, is the mark of a wizard with comparable raw strength AND a lot of experience.

But who?

Cowl could even be Arthur Langtry (another heavyweight I haven't seen nominated).  I dislike this for two reasons -- first, it combines two enemies, which takes pressure off Harry.  Not JB's style, not at all!  Second, we've seen the deep dislike and even hatred that the Merlin holds toward Harry, which doesn't match Cowl's more neutral/curious/amused stance toward Harry.

Cowl's use of raw-force is a closer match for Harry's own magic than any other wizard we've seen, so TT-Harry is a reasonable theory; of course, Cowl could simply have been testing Harry in Harry's own strong suit.  The big downside that I see to TT-Harry being any Mover&Shaker figure (such as Cowl is) is 2-fold... 1)  acting in the past throws up SO MANY chances to F'ThingsUp in spectacular ways; one little intervention, MAYBE... but ongoing plotting, taking Kumori as an apprentice & stepping into the Darkhallow, sending hordes of uberGhouls into the Raith Deeps, etc; but even moreso,  2) being Cowl would make TT-Harry one of the driving forces behind all the low-level talents being murdered by the Malvora/Skavis plot... so, NO, not TT-Harry).

Eb - We've already had Harry go through the "you betrayed me" schtick with Eb over Eb's being the Blackstaff.  I don't see JB re-running that exact sequence, so I don't see Eb being Cowl.  Furthermore, if the actual stick is in fact Mother Winter's Walking Stick (as I've seen theorized, but has WoJ ever unambiguously confirmed???) I don't really see Mother Winter loaning that power to anyone who'd be doing Darkhallow magic.

LaFortier - This would be another Peabody-esque figure; he's being shown as mildly incompetent, a Rampire-pawn early on, etc.  A "foe" of Harry's, but mostly as The Merlin's pawn or the RC's pawn, not one who really matters as themselves; the same way Peabody was kind of a doesn't-matter figure (until it turned out that his claws were into most of the SrCouncil & most Wardens...).  In the end, I come down on "not enough info for a firm opinion" on the likelihood.

Another WhiteCouncil minor character (e.g. Klaus, etc) including other Wardens - All of these fall under the same "not enough info" mantle as LaFortier.

Simon - He was apparently like Morgan, but moreso.  Major heavyweight combat wizard, likely at risk of burnout & becoming cynical, going all ends-justify-means.  I mean, look at what we know:  already on the Senior Council & with the Warden's combat/security to hand, he created his OWN tower-fortress and his OWN cadre of combat wizards... sufficiently morally-dubious that they were called a "Brute Squad."  The Cowl/Kumori "White Council has rotted from within, and will fall in short order" perspective is right up that alleyway, probably even sitting in adjacent dumpsters.  This is a likely one.

Justin - OK, lots to like here!  Warden, in at the final kill when Kemmler went down, ended up with EvilBob from Kemmler's lab.  He'd have to have been morally-teetering (at least) even then, but grabbing EvilBob sent him over the edge.  Working on Justin=Cowl, I expect that owning EvilBob was probably all the Necromantic expertise needed to get to Cowl levels of power; and being part of the Kemmler-execution puts him neatly into the "Kemmler and his disciples are insane scum" POV.  Also as Harry's ex-mentor, having some curiosity (about how strong he has turned out) and an amused/dismissive attitude, fit well with how we've seen Cowl.  Justin had, however poorly, spent some years in the father-figure role with Harry, so there's THAT number to play.  Justin as Cowl and Kumori as Elaine... that would be REALLY hard on Harry.  Do we think Jim would torment Harry that much?  Oh, yeah, we think that!

The Mirror,Mirror twist:  TT-Harry wouldn't condone murdering all those Skavis/Malvora talents, or risking Paradox; but Mirror-Harry very well might.  So if we combined TT+MM, then Harry becomes IHMO a very very likely Cowl indeed.  I expect Jim will try to have MM-Harry break ALL the Laws of Magic.
 
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: nadia.skylark on May 01, 2019, 11:38:40 PM
Quote
Justin as Cowl and Kumori as Elaine... that would be REALLY hard on Harry.

Would it be, though? I mean, Kumori as Elaine would be awful for him, sure, but Justin as Cowl...actually might make him feel quite a bit better about himself. It would, after all, confirm that Harry had never broken the Laws of magic. That doesn't seem like it would be a torment to him--quite the opposite.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: ClintACK on May 02, 2019, 12:54:57 PM
Quote from: g33k on May 01, 2019, 11:15:50 PM
Eb - We've already had Harry go through the "you betrayed me" schtick with Eb over Eb's being the Blackstaff.  I don't see JB re-running that exact sequence, so I don't see Eb being Cowl.  Furthermore, if the actual stick is in fact Mother Winter's Walking Stick (as I've seen theorized, but has WoJ ever unambiguously confirmed???) I don't really see Mother Winter loaning that power to anyone who'd be doing Darkhallow magic.

I agree with you that Eb's not Cowl -- but why would you think Mother Winter would think there's something wrong with a Darkhallow? The faerie courts were founded on mass human sacrifice. Remember the Stone Table?

It's Cowl's work with outsiders that would have Mother Winter pulling out her good set of teeth.

The same thing that rules out Gatekeeper.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Yuillegan on May 04, 2019, 12:33:36 AM
Quote from: nadia.skylark on May 01, 2019, 11:38:40 PM
Would it be, though? I mean, Kumori as Elaine would be awful for him, sure, but Justin as Cowl...actually might make him feel quite a bit better about himself. It would, after all, confirm that Harry had never broken the Laws of magic. That doesn't seem like it would be a torment to him--quite the opposite.

Yes I think it would hit hard. He thought he got rid of his initial nightmare (Justin) but he has been "alive/around" all along, manipulating Harry's life from behind the scenes and basically responsible for a lot of Harry's misfortune. I think that would be pretty emotional stuff. Elaine is an old wound - I think it would sting a lot. But I think if it were those two as Cowl and Kumori, the way it would have most impact is if when they reveal their identities they actually have a convincing, even necessary "Join Us" plan. If Harry realised he might be wrong, I think that would really shatter him. 

Well actually, it might confirm that he didn't break the first law initially - but it doesn't rule him out of breaking the other laws. He definitely used Necromancy (which while he didn't break law technically - I am not sure the after affects will care much), he also quite likely killed some humans during his battle with Bianca (which he won't look into because he is scared of what he might find).

ClintACK, while you are correct on Mother Winter probably loving a whole bunch of death and destruction for an Ascension ritual, I think in this particular case she would have been a bit mad. Necromancy (true Necromancy) may have it's origins in the Outside. This would make it almost anti-death (which the natural destroyer might take issue with - after all she is like the seasons, everything must die in due course so new life can grow. Everything existing forever is antithesis to her nature). I also think that if it were Eb, he would absorb the power of the Blackstaff into the ritual if he could - and Mother Winter wouldn't exactly be thrilled by such a loss to her power.

I think the Gatekeeper is unlikely purely on the fact he has worked with fae and Outsiders for a thousand years - he could have taken godly power long ago and didn't, so why now? Also after the Darkhallow - both Eb and the Gatekeeper are active. Cowl took a little longer too come back as he was blown to bits. So the timing doesn't work.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Snark Knight on May 04, 2019, 01:20:04 AM
Quote from: peregrine on April 08, 2019, 10:09:37 PM
From a plot point, I expect that Harry will unmask Cowl before he knows his identity, and then later will see him at the Council to then put a name to the face.

The problem with that is that seeing Cowl's actual face would elevate Harry from not worth the potential trouble to kill, into a threat that he pretty much has to take his chances on silencing. He hasn't put all this trouble into discretion to blow everything on turning a corner in Edinburgh and being recognized sometime Harry comes to visit.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: nadia.skylark on May 04, 2019, 07:22:27 PM
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Yes I think it would hit hard. He thought he got rid of his initial nightmare (Justin) but he has been "alive/around" all along, manipulating Harry's life from behind the scenes and basically responsible for a lot of Harry's misfortune. I think that would be pretty emotional stuff.

I think his response would be more "yeah, right, you're clearly faking it" actually. I mean, from his perspective, what would it mean that Justin's alive? Well...

1) Harry never broke the First Law when he was 16, despite the fact that black magic leaves traces on users. Therefore...
2) Either a great many wizards on the White Council are lying to everyone about being able to sense black magic (including Ebenezer) and doing it well enough that they convinced Harry that he could sense black magic (which he has before) or a great many wizards on the White Council (including Ebenezer) lied to him and everyone else about Harry's breaking of the First Law (since they should have been able to sense that he had not used Black Magic).
3) Justin tried to kill him repeatedly, then just stopped for no good reason.
4) Justin tried to recruit him repeatedly, then just stopped for no good reason.
5) Justin is this super-threatening figure who Harry may not be able to beat even now, yet the best plan he could come up with against 16-year-old Harry was to escape by faking his own death (as opposed to, say, beating him, restraining him again, and going right back to trying to enthrall him).

Given that the other option is for Harry to believe that some shapeshifter is messing with him, and that he in fact has ample evidence that this is something shapeshifters are perfectly capable of doing, I don't see Harry believing that Cowl is Justin even if he is. From Harry's perspective, it's just too implausible.

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But I think if it were those two as Cowl and Kumori, the way it would have most impact is if when they reveal their identities they actually have a convincing, even necessary "Join Us" plan. If Harry realised he might be wrong, I think that would really shatter him. 

I'd go the opposite way, actually. I think that no matter how convincing their whole recruitment speech would otherwise be, Harry would disregard it out of hand because it's Justin. I mean, this is the first true villain that Harry ever fought--he's ingrained in Harry's mind as capital-E Evil.

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Well actually, it might confirm that he didn't break the first law initially - but it doesn't rule him out of breaking the other laws. He definitely used Necromancy (which while he didn't break law technically - I am not sure the after affects will care much), he also quite likely killed some humans during his battle with Bianca (which he won't look into because he is scared of what he might find).

I don't think he really thinks of this as Law-breaking. In his mind, I feel like finding out that he didn't kill Justin would be a kind of absolution.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: kbrizzle on May 04, 2019, 08:52:00 PM
@nadia
Agree with your argument about why it doesn’t make sense for Justin to be Cowl, although I disagree about point #2.

For all we know, the black magic or dark taint other wizards sense on Harry is HWWB - remember what the 3 eye user in the police station says to Harry in StF. Also in GS we see that Harry is able to get away from HWWB because he blows up the gas station (perhaps other people die in this blast)

@Cozarkian
True, people have speculated about this before - everything from Justin was body snatched by Kemmler to Simon used it at Archangel to fake his death as realistically as possible.

@g33k
While I believe that Cowl is likely a former SC member or just below, I think it is also possible that he is publicly regarded as an average wizard, a la Peabody & Elaine.
If the theory that Cowl is a Fomor mantle (like the Knights or Blackstaff) is correct, then perhaps he is an average practitioner who is being juiced up by the mantle
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: nadia.skylark on May 04, 2019, 09:47:16 PM
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For all we know, the black magic or dark taint other wizards sense on Harry is HWWB - remember what the 3 eye user in the police station says to Harry in StF. Also in GS we see that Harry is able to get away from HWWB because he blows up the gas station (perhaps other people die in this blast)

I agree. I just don't think it would occur to Harry--he thinks of himself as "tainted by black magic" not "tainted by Outsiders and black magic" so in absence of black magic taint, I don't think it would immediately occur to him to consider Outsider taint as a reason, and by the time he would have a chance to ruminate on it he would already have dismissed the possibility of Justin being alive.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: ClintACK on May 05, 2019, 12:01:30 AM
Re: "tainted by black magic"...

I've always assumed this is his temper issue. Channeling his fear and rage into fire magic with the intent to kill a human being (Justin DuMorne) carved a groove into his soul, increasing his tendency to channel fear and rage into fire in the future.

When we see him do things like the "pyrofuego" in Grave Peril or smashing the trash cans in White Night, he's doing the same -- channeling pain and anger into fire magic.

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... the despair, and the self-loathing and the helpless fury... set me on fire. Fire in my heart, in my thoughts, in my eyes. I burned... burned in places I hadn't known I could hurt... I remember reaching for that pain... I reached for fire -- and fire answered me... The fury in me grew. It swelled and burned and I reached out to the fire again. -- Grave Peril

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My raw anxiety and rage lashed from the tip of my blasting rod in a lance of blinding scarlet fire. -- White Night

This is the black-magic taint of a first-law warlock. He's powering his magic with his rage.

Heck, in White Night, he even brackets the event with references to Yoda, just in case you missed the fact that anger is a Dark Side emotion.


Good as he is, and as much as we like him, Harry Dresden *does* have a black magic problem. He's fighting against it. Eb taught him to control it, mostly. But Morgan wasn't wrong to think Harry has always been on the edge of Warlockry.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: Snark Knight on May 05, 2019, 01:26:44 AM
Quote from: kbrizzle on April 28, 2019, 05:00:46 AM
Paolo Ortega (likely Nfected) led the charge to destroy Archangel. Simon had excellent relations with the vampire courts - Cowl is allied with Red Court & interferes in the White. Mavra clearly didn’t want Cowl (or the other 2) becoming necromantic gods.

Paolo Ortega is actually pretty high up on the list of characters I'm confident wasn't N-fected. His agenda in DM was to kill Harry so the Reds could say they'd avenged Bianca and disengage from the war. He wanted short-term peace to provide a window for a few more decades to build numbers and position so his nation could win decisively when they were actually ready to fight the Council.

Nemesis' agenda was the opposite, for the war to drag on in the short term, degrading both sides and causing chaos to cover their apocalypse preparations.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: g33k on May 05, 2019, 04:51:54 PM
Quote from: nadia.skylark on May 01, 2019, 11:38:40 PM
Would it be, though? I mean, Kumori as Elaine would be awful for him, sure, but Justin as Cowl...actually might make him feel quite a bit better about himself. It would, after all, confirm that Harry had never broken the Laws of magic. That doesn't seem like it would be a torment to him--quite the opposite.

Elaine going back to being Justin's lackey -- part of the Sith Bathrobe Brigade -- would be agony...  It would throw him straight back to the torments of the original betrayal, the agonies of those events.  "The first girl he ever everything'ed" is still(again?) secretly betraying him with Justin in pursuit of power.

Harry is already convinced that he is tainted/tempted by black magic...
Having not-actually-killed Justin?  Actually may not seem like a big enough feather on the scales of justice.  There's plenty of warden-sword fodder in Harry's past, even without Justin's death.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: g33k on May 05, 2019, 05:12:52 PM
Quote from: ClintACK on May 02, 2019, 12:54:57 PM
I agree with you that Eb's not Cowl -- but why would you think Mother Winter would think there's something wrong with a Darkhallow? The faerie courts were founded on mass human sacrifice. Remember the Stone Table?
  It's not the killing mortals she'd object to; it's elevating a Dark God of necromancy.  It's a destabilization of the existing, natural order; and the Mothers are BIG into preserving the natural order.

Quote from: ClintACK on May 02, 2019, 12:54:57 PM
It's Cowl's work with outsiders that would have Mother Winter pulling out her good set of teeth.
I'm not entirely certain that Cowl IS working with the Outsiders; but I'm not sure that he's not, either.  But I agree -- Mother Winter will likely know, and it's nothing she'd tolerate.  But OTOH, I'm less sure of the "Mother Winter's walking stick" theory than I was...  per WoJ:
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Q: How long has the White Council had the Blackstaff?
A: Look for Celtic Lore around 1065 ad.
Quote
Q:  Can you tell us a little more about the black staff?
A: ... the White Council stole it from someone.  And they really want it back.
I'm trying to imagine Mother Winter "really wanting" a hefty chunk of her own power back for most of 1000 years, and that not happening.  And I'm not seeing it work that way... no, really not seeing that...
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: ClintACK on May 05, 2019, 05:19:12 PM
Re: Dark Hallow...

I can't remember where I'm getting this from, but I thought we knew that the Faerie Courts were created by essentially performing a Dark Hallow using the Stone Table.

Maybe there's something essentially different about doing it using a soul-vacuum effect like Cowl planned to, rather than actually killing each victim on the table, but I wouldn't be so sure of that.

Quote from: g33k on May 05, 2019, 05:12:52 PM
I'm not entirely certain that Cowl IS working with the Outsiders; but I'm not sure that he's not, either.  But I agree -- Mother Winter will likely know, and it's nothing she'd tolerate. 

After Dead Beat, I would have agreed. I was assuming that a lot of the bad guys -- Nicodemus and Cowl especially -- were using evil means for a good cause, and the biggest "good cause" that would let you justify all kinds of evil was the Outsider threat.

After White Night, though, it's hard to escape the conclusion that Cowl is working with Outsiders. Vitto was possessed by an Outsider (probably HWWB4) and he called Cowl "Master".
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: kbrizzle on May 05, 2019, 06:43:49 PM
@Snark Knight
I’ve wrestled with whether he is Nfected or just on Black Council. Nemesis wants the Ramps to win since the WC is a significant obstacle to their plans. If the Ramps won, imagine how much more chaos there would be - the WC maintains order by clamping down on black magic. If it is soundly defeated or diminished in the war with the Ramps, all the better since there would be no one to enforce the Laws, especially the 7th. Additionally, the WC is clearly allied with Winter (Blackstaff, Gatekeeper etc.). Defeating one of Winter’s strongest allies would be a huge win for the Outsiders.

If you recall, Ortega didn’t want to start the war at the end of GP, & indeed he comes to Chicago in DM for this purpose. It also seems to be somewhat common knowledge amongst the smarter denizens of this world that the war was a couple of decades too early for the Ramps to win decisively (like Shiro says) - no one (including Bianca or Ortega) expected Harry to choose Susan at the end of GP. The circumstances demanded that they declare war & some of the more bloodlusted Ramps thought they could win (they were no doubt listening to Cowl telling them about how the Council has rotted) - the smart money was always on waiting a while to shore up their forces. Nemesis would be with the smart money.

@ClintACK
Completely agree that Cowl is working with Outsiders especially after WN - I took it to mean that Vito was Nfected not possessed by HWWB4.

I also think you’re right that Harry does have tendencies to walk on the left hand path, as g33k points out about picking up the coin.

@g33k
I took the fact that Mother Winter wants her staff back to mean that she realizes that Nemesis is in the middle of another big plan, & it has been doing a little too well - the chaos it & it’s allies have fomented in the mortal world is not giving her confidence that the WC can control things properly.

@nadia
Harry didn’t know that HWWB was an Outsider till GS. He didn’t even know they were real until CD - he just thought they were very exotic demons before. So you’re right about him not knowing that there are likely 2 different taints on him.
Title: Re: Another Cowl Theory
Post by: nadia.skylark on May 05, 2019, 07:01:30 PM
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Elaine going back to being Justin's lackey -- part of the Sith Bathrobe Brigade -- would be agony...  It would throw him straight back to the torments of the original betrayal, the agonies of those events.  "The first girl he ever everything'ed" is still(again?) secretly betraying him with Justin in pursuit of power.

It would hurt him, sure, but not any more than if she went to the dark side by helping someone else. The only difference would be that he would probably be more disgusted with himself for not having worked it out.

Quote
Having not-actually-killed Justin?  Actually may not seem like a big enough feather on the scales of justice.  There's plenty of warden-sword fodder in Harry's past, even without Justin's death.

I weigh things differently. Killing Justin was, in his opinion, what made him bad. Everything else just confirmed it. To me, that would seem to imply that killing Justin did more damage and was a greater source of pain to him personally, regardless of the objective measure. It's like Harry was shoved down a flight of stairs through a window, and ended up with bruises, lacerations, and a broken collarbone. All of those things hurt, but a broken collarbone hurts worse, and if it suddenly isn't broken anymore he's still going to feel quite a bit better even though he's still injured.

However, I have revised my opinion. I no longer believe that finding out that Cowl is Justin would make him feel better--I believe that he simply wouldn't accept it as true. As I posted earlier, there's no particular reason for him to believe it, and several extremely good reasons not to. Furthermore, he lives in a world where not only is shapeshifting a thing, but it's known to be used for extremely detailed impersonation.