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The Dresden Files => DF Spoilers => Topic started by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 12:35:09 AM

Title: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 12:35:09 AM
I'm in an argument over on Discord with my nemesis. :)

Let's lay the foundation.
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Then I saw the dissonance appear. Bob had chosen to show it as a sullen red light that began to pulse lightly at the westernmost edges of the great design. It began as something faint, but then, like an oncoming headache, started to throb into something larger and more noticeable. Where scarlet and blue light touched, there were ugly flares of energy-flares that I had been sensing ever since I'd gotten to the island. Before long, that scarlet pulse had spread to half the island, and then, abruptly, the screen went white.
Text at the bottom read, NOVEMBER 1.
"By tomorrow," I said. "Super. But I still don't see what is wrong, Bob."
"Energy hits it," Bob said. "A directed burst of energy, a whole lot of it. It unravels the whole containment spell Merlin laid down and triggers the fail-safe."
"FIRE," rumbled Demonreach.
"I figured that one out, thanks," I said. "But nothing has actually happened to the spells yet?"
"Nope," said Bob. "That tension that's building? It's . . . Well, think of it as cause and effect, only backward."
"What the island is experiencing now is the echo of the moment that burst of energy strikes it," Bob said. "Only instead of the echo happening after, it's happening first."
I stopped and thought. "You're telling me that the reason the island is about to blow up is . . . because it's about to blow up?"
Bob sighed. "Someone hits the island with energy, Harry. But they've figured out how Merlin put this place together. They aren't attacking it in three dimensions. They're attacking in four. They're sending power through time as well as through space."
"So . . . I have to stop them from attacking the island tomorrow?"
"No," Bob said, exasperated. "You have to stop them from attacking whenever it is that they actually attack.
"
"Uh . . ."
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"Look, the rock they're throwing hits tomorrow," Bob said. "But you have to stop them from throwing it at whatever point they're standing when they throw it."
"Oh," I said, blinking. "I get that."
Bob turned to look at Demonreach. "Do you see what I have to work with here? I had to take that down to throwing a rock before it got through."
"HIS UNDERSTANDING IS LIMITED," Demonreach agreed.

First the definition
I stipulated 'cosmic' Halloween to be defined as the time in which the conjunction exists whereby immortals are made mortal.

General impression:
I argue the attacks can be entirely within cosmic Halloween.

2:19 PM] -EG-: They're throwing it from the barges. It builds up and hits the next day. Halloween no longer applies, stuff in the Well goes free.

EG's argument is that the Demonreach attack rock doesn't hit until November 1st (but post Halloween) per the white screen with it labeled at bottom and per Bob "Look, the rock they're throwing hits tomorrow."
The attack may be thrown when the barge hits but the rock doesn't hit until November 1st.
He is dead set that because we see a white screen labeled November 1st, that means whatever event it signifies must hit not on halloween but Nov 1st.
Therefore there are no mantles to be gobbled up as the immortals aren't destroyed but set free to cause huge disorder, etc.

My arguments are this.
Bob showed us a model isn't completely accurate.
Harry took November 1st to mean 'by tomorrow" not necessarily tomorrow.
I pointed to
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So . . . I have to stop them from attacking the island tomorrow?"
"No," Bob said, exasperated. "You have to stop them from attacking whenever it is that they actually attack.
.
I then point to Vadderung's
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“Meaning that the echoes caused by the temporal event are proportionately greater than the span of time that was bridged,” he said. “Had the attack been launched from a century ago, or hence, the echoes of it would have begun far, far in advance of the event—centuries ago. These echoes have appeared only within the past few days. I would guess, roughly, that the attack must originate only hours from the actual, real-time occurrence.” “Which is tomorrow,” I said. “So it’s happening sometime today or sometime tomorrow.” “Most likely not tomorrow,” Vadderung said. “Altering one’s past is more than mildly difficult.”

Other issues at play
I argued that some/most prisoners within Demonreach have mantles.  He argued they don't have them.
I argued that the banefire event would be on Halloween not on Nov 1st so as to kill the prisoners.  I'd allow however that the energy could be gobbled up. He is pretty steadfast about Nov 1st as shown by model being accurate depiction of what would occur.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 12:54:52 AM
So I argued that the barge, with the ritual on it, landing on the shore of Demonreach would be the "attack" that would cause "dissonance to appear" at the westernmost edges of the great design.  He argued it wouldn't take effect until Nov 1st as he previously stated per Bob 'hit tomorrow' and label Nov 1st.

What is the verdict.  Your thoughts on the matter of the attack on Demonreach.

Some of the summation of my arguments:
So. To sum up arguments so far.
[3:29 PM] raidem: I've argued that some, many of the prisoners in Demonreach have mantles/power.
[3:30 PM] raidem: That this/these mantles/powers would be released in destruction of Demonreach on cosmic Halloween.(edited)
[3:30 PM] raidem: That consumers (Outsiders, Insider) could take advantage of these resources by 'gobbling' them up.
[3:32 PM] raidem: I argue that Harry may have killed HWWBefore and we saw a 'mantlelike' essence retreat toward the retreating Outside army.
[3:33 PM] raidem: I argued that there was a difference, in some end result, between Harry killing HWWB and HWWBefore.  That killing HWWBefore on Halloween with Winter and Soulfire did something more than what occurred when he was just 16.
[3:35 PM] raidem: I argued that human ideas can create mantles. And that Jim has a liberal definition of the same word 'mantle.'
[3:36 PM] raidem: I argued that the white screen depicted by Bob is 'by tomorrow' not strictly November 1st. (cosmic Halloween would still be enforced)(edited)
[3:38 PM] raidem: I now say if on November 1st and not cosmic Halloween then the last option is what @-EG- suggests would take place, that of freeing the prisoners
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: Cozarkian on January 23, 2018, 01:01:14 AM
Cutting to the chase, your problem is the failure to realize that Nov. 1 is still Halloween. Halloween lasts until sunrise.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 01:12:44 AM
Not really because I called it 'cosmic' Halloween so we stipulated that the conjunction would first cease to exist. He still argued it would hit post 'cosmic' Halloween on Nov 1st.

Bob had mentioned Harry would have until the first natural birdsong.

I did in fact bring up the wards that Mab, Harry and allies were confined behind.

I just found this so this is new to the argument. It's the birdsong.

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The rest of the night passed without anyone getting killed. I sat down with my back against the outside wall of the cottage, to keep an eye on my “guests” down the hill, but when I blinked a few seconds later, my eyes stuck shut, and then didn’t open again until I heard, distantly, a bird twittering. Footsteps came crunching up the hill, and I opened my eyes to see Kringle approaching.

That bird signaled the end of 'cosmic' Halloween.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: peregrine on January 23, 2018, 01:32:12 AM
Other than "It's a thing that happened," what evidence do you have that the bird signaled the end of Halloween?
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 01:35:09 AM
Sorry.  I revised it. 
The bird signified the end of the day, and start of the next.  per Bob.

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“How big a window do I have? When does Halloween night end?” I asked. “At the first natural morning birdsong,” Bob replied promptly. “Songbirds, rooster, whatever. They start to sing, the night ends.”

Butcher, Jim. Cold Days (The Dresden Files, Book 14) (p. 100). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 01:37:26 AM
Corzarkian, you make a good argument though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halloween

In some cultures, it is a three day event.

For the argument purposes, it's irrelevant.  Vadderung just told Harry “Most likely not tomorrow,” Vadderung said. “Altering one’s past is more than mildly difficult.”  This contradicts Bob's "Look, the rock they're throwing hits tomorrow,"

This comment is actually a bit confusing.  Vadderung here is either implying Harry or Vadderung's own past would be changed by 'the attack being tomorrow." This is further confused timewise by Kringle pushing the Wild Hunt out of it's time trap.  We think this pushed him either up or downstream.  It likely sped his time up to slow Wild Hunt's time down.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: Cozarkian on January 23, 2018, 02:15:18 AM
Halloween ends at first natural  birdsong on tomorrow, Nov. 1. Bob explains that the rock hits on tomorrow,  Nov.1 but doesn't know when the attack is. Vadderung's tomorrow references the throwing of the rock, not the landing of the rock. They most likely aren't throwing the rock tomorrow pm, because the explosion would have already happened, tomorrow am, which would change the past.

At least, that's my best attempt to make it all non-conflicting.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 02:19:15 AM
The rock throw and hit is a dumbed down version that isn't the model he shows Harry.  So, it is inaccurate in some respects.

This "sullen red light that began to pulse lightly at the westernmost edges of the great design" corresponds with where the barges approach from, I think.  I believe it is the landing of the barges that creates the dissonance that unwraps Merlin's workings.  They occur on Halloween.

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I would guess, roughly, that the attack must originate only hours from the actual, real-time occurrence.” “Which is tomorrow,” I said. “So it’s happening sometime today or sometime tomorrow.” “Most likely not tomorrow,” Vadderung said.
This means it's not tomorrow, and that it occurs today with each event within hours of each other.  Since 'today' is 10/31 and tomorrow is 11/1, the attack takes place today as we see it does.  Vadderung refers to both rock throw, rock hit within hours of each other. 

My arguments allow for the rock throw and rock hit to be during Halloween, part 10/31 part 11/1.
I get stubborn though if you push the argument and say the rock hit is past 'Halloween' and on 11/1 (not on 'Halloween').
My thinking is that the banefire as a result of the attack would be activated while Halloween is active not when it isn't.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: jonas on January 23, 2018, 04:13:51 AM
Two points to make I think,
 1, I kinda agree with this, it should hit in the future, maybe I need to reread that scene(which i'll do tonight I think) but I thought that's what was up,
2 i'd argue wither the immortals in the mantle could truly be killed with Banefire. It may kill them in most all senses but I think the universe will still have that memory to try to fill up and since human memory has not truly forgotten those things they could reemerge.(this is why I think outsiders try to take on the constructs of dead deity) Plus the results would be catastrophic anyway, they are the source of all negative energy in the world(from 'the well' description) Without those forces contained in reality balance would have to be resettled somewhere.
But as long as humans remember I think their reemergence will be faster than most.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: groinkick on January 23, 2018, 05:38:21 AM
lol I love that you're debating with your "nemesis".  Congrats on 5,000 posts.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: jonas on January 23, 2018, 10:20:10 AM
lol I love that you're debating with your "nemesis".  Congrats on 5,000 posts.
Lmao it got funnier when I realized EG is his Nemesis.

I'd get on the discord discord but I have no idea how it works really(made an acc) and i'd have to wait until the house was quiet, which is practically never.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: Mira on January 23, 2018, 12:16:45 PM
Cutting to the chase, your problem is the failure to realize that Nov. 1 is still Halloween. Halloween lasts until sunrise.

That doesn't have to be sunrise, anyone who has roosters knows they can crow at any time in the night.  Anyone awake early enough knows that some birds start to sing as early as three and four in the morning... Some birds do their singing after dark.

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That bird signaled the end of 'cosmic' Halloween.

Problem with that is it appears to be a "generic" bird instead of a specific species, so that in of itself could be a trap...
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: Kindler on January 23, 2018, 02:07:03 PM
That doesn't have to be sunrise, anyone who has roosters knows they can crow at any time in the night.  Anyone awake early enough knows that some birds start to sing as early as three and four in the morning... Some birds do their singing after dark.

Used to keep a few hens and a rooster. Can confirm. One of the many, many reasons I hate birds as an adult.

I'd argue that it really doesn't matter. This is particularly fine hair-splitting, in my opinion; "November 1st" starts at midnight. It's still Halloween until a bird in the area starts squawking. You've got 3-6 hours there for both things to be true.

I really didn't get the whole Law of Conservation of History stuff. Seemed like an awful lot of exposition for an idea that wasn't made clear enough to make a difference. I kinda hope it doesn't come back up again, or if it does, it's explained by someone who isn't contractually obligated to be mysterious.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 05:09:14 PM
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2 i'd argue wither the immortals in the mantle could truly be killed with Banefire. It may kill them in most all senses but I think the universe will still have that memory to try to fill up and since human memory has not truly forgotten those things they could reemerge.(this is why I think outsiders try to take on the constructs of dead deity) Plus the results would be catastrophic anyway, they are the source of all negative energy in the world(from 'the well' description) Without those forces contained in reality balance would have to be resettled somewhere.

I also argued this.
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[12:32 PM] raidem: Another reason to support the idea that those prisoners within Demonreach have 'mantles/power'.  They exist here. They haven't been consigned to oblivion yet, unless oblivion is Demonreach but I'd guess not.  If there is an idea of those prisoners in Demonreach in the minds of humans, then 'they-in the most encompassing definition' couldn't be destroyed. Their idea would exist so the potential for something to assume this idea, their mask/mantle (in the nature of WOJL on human ideas creating mantles) remains.(edited)
EG argues the Prisoners don't have mantles.

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Problem with that is it appears to be a "generic" bird instead of a specific species, so that in of itself could be a trap...
I didn't mean to suggest it was 'that' bird. Or that particular species.  I was just saying in general Harry heard a bird and he looked about and saw Kringle walking to him.  Therefore the wards were down, Halloween had ended.  It wasn't even the first bird or necessarily strict confirmation of the rule, as Mab had recently departed with both Ladies and had conversed with Kringle, etc.  The rule concerning first bird most likely aligns with the precise rule, but there still can be a bit of fuzziness.  Hey there might be a 'cosmic' bird that decides these things not one on Earth. In mythology there actually are roosters whose crowing mean things.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 05:31:41 PM
This is what set the discussion up.  Multiple arguments ensued.

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[4:06 AM] Godslayer: So has anyone put forth the theory that the attack on Demonreach in Cold Days was an attempt at a superpowered Darkhallow rite?
[4:16 AM] khadgar567: i can go with that
[4:16 AM] Godslayer: Of course, that begs the question: Who was looking to cash in on it?
[4:16 AM] khadgar567: as you are sacrifacing bunch of outsiders to empower your self instead of ghosts
[4:17 AM] Godslayer: Yeah, I imagine you'd be the most powerful being on earth if you pulled it off
[4:18 AM] khadgar567: lets not forget you are drawing outsiders across time to fuel the ritual not just presint time
[[4:19 AM] Godslayer: one thing I'm amazed about Harry not bringing up is: where the hell did all of the outsiders in Cold Days come from?
[4:20 AM] khadgar567: so there is third party going on in the cold days
[4:21 AM] khadgar567: and i bet they attack in peace talks to as nearly all big wigs in setting are in the same location same time
[4:22 AM] khadgar567: its kinda begs to be  exploited by some one
[4:23 AM] khadgar567: fall out would be epic as rapid change of managment and desire to get blind revenge will open huge oppurtunity to pop a dark hallow cap on whole cast
[9:33 AM] -EG-: The Darkhallow took a lot of prep time and very specific acts of Necromancy to prepare the intended recipient to be around that vortex. And the energy that was going to 'destroy' DR and set everything loose was set to hit on November First, not Halloween. The opportunity to take in that kind of power would have no longer applied.(edited)
[9:39 AM] Vicissitude: Hmm, that's a bummer.
[9:39 AM] Vicissitude: Though it is a work of fiction. I'll bet Jim could have found a loophole :v
[9:42 AM] -EG-: Jim is certainly creative, but his rules and world tend to stand up to itself well. Which is definitely one of the reasons why it's a popular series. Harry gets a creative loophole because he's the main character. And even those are within parameters.
[9:44 AM] raidem: When it comes to the exact date it really doesn't depend on Earth's calendar
[9:44 AM] raidem: It depends on the Cosmic Halloween
[9:46 AM] raidem: I mean we have an inexact calendar as it is, with a leap year added to the calendar to adjust it to be more accurate reflection of Earth's orbit around the sun
[9:46 AM] raidem: So, I'd say it was still Cosmic Halloween
[9:47 AM] Vicissitude: Yeah, like the bloodline curse wasn't literally at midnight on that night
[9:47 AM] raidem: the conjunction was still active
[9:47 AM] raidem: And Maeve and Lily DID die
[9:47 AM] Boustrophedonic: Harry gets some loopholes and wiggle room because he's literally a cosmic monkey wrench in the war against the outsiders
[9:47 AM] raidem: so that proves Cosmic Halloween was enforced
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 05:37:39 PM
You don't have to install it.  You can just see it through your browser.  You will need to establish a email and password associated with it I think.  You can I think use a guest account too.

https://discordapp.com/invite/fwZ7RJy
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: Kindler on January 23, 2018, 06:04:32 PM
Ah, okay, that context explains the hair-splitting then. Some take quantum foam-sized items of minutiae as a hill to die on (not saying your'e one of them, Raidem), so I had kind of figured it was something like that. I retract my previous sarcasm.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: Quantus on January 23, 2018, 06:07:14 PM
OK, this is one of those topics that long warped my brain but eventually I came to an explanation I liked, though it does require an unproven assumption of the Nature of Demonreach.  But without it, there does not appear to be any need to involve Chronomancy at all, which ultimately is what foiled the plan by forewarning Harry&co.

I think Maeve's plan was to trigger the Banefire on Nov. 1st, but the Trans-Dimensional Nature of Demonreach required her to "toss the rock" from Oct.31. 

We know Demonreach is a prison in Time as well as Space, so Here's the Assumption:  Demonreach traps the inmates in a Perpetual Halloween.  They are in "Stasis" and vulnerable, with the Banefire hanging over them (like a more literal Doom of Damocles, ironically), which is what it would take for the Banefire to actually kill them as Vadderung initially described.  So if Maeve wanted to actually launch an attack on the Well itself (the magical construct) she could only reach it in Space&Time from the Island on the actual Day.  However, then she is setting off a Nuke that she happens to be standing on, which is suicidal for all involved.  This is why a Trans-temporal attack was required, it acted as a delay.  But had she simply lobbed the attack from November 1st it could have hit the island but would not have "reached" the Well itself.


Support:

-Per Bob/Alfred the Well is a Prison in Time as well as Space, and maybe even higher dimensions (ie parallel worlds?)

-The British Inmate raves about the inmates being in "Stasis" and how the presence of the Warden "Buggers that up entirely."  This could be taken to mean that the inmates only experience the passage of time in the direct presence of the Warden.  Functionally it would make sense for the Well to go out of it's way to facilitate interaction since it's the Warden's responsibility to Determine if they should ever be Released. 

-Vadderung indicated that the Inmates would not survive the Banefire.  But Maeve (and Harry) were talking like they assumed the inmate's would survive.

-The Chronomantic nature of the attack itself was a huge tactical liability without any other (obvious) benefit.



Counter-argument:  The main counter to this idea is that holding the inmates in perpetual Halloween could be MORE dangerous rather than less.  For the same reason that some Immortals go out and Play on Halloween while others hide, they are more vulnerable on Halloween but it is also the only day they are capable of Change enough to gain new Power.  This is not so much an argument for why it would not work as it is one side of in-world the Risk Assessment that the Well's designer(s) likely had. 
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 06:15:27 PM
I'm thinking on this...
I can post more of the discussion too.
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Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 06:34:03 PM
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voc.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: kazimmoinuddin on January 23, 2018, 07:26:01 PM
I think that the bane fire would wound the immortals enough to allow them to be consumed by nemesis and their allies. Or at least be co opted by the enemy.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 07:29:24 PM
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I think Maeve's plan was to trigger the Banefire on Nov. 1st, but the Trans-Dimensional Nature of Demonreach required her to "toss the rock" from Oct.31. 
Even if this is the plan, you have to prove that Nov 1st when the banefire is triggered isn't Halloween (cosmic Halloween).  (Bob tells Harry he has until the first natural birdsong in the morning of 11/1 which signals the end of Halloween.)  Otherwise, the date doesn't matter. It's Halloween in both cases.

We have to ask ourself.  Assuming Bob's model is correct, The Banefire will go off 'by tomorrow' November 1st.  Will the banefire go off on the Halloween part of Nov 1st or the nonHalloween part of Nov 1st.  It decides the issue of whether the Prisoners can be released as immortals vs. mortals.  If they are mortals, then the banefire kills them and whatever power/mantles they have go up for grabs.  If they are released as immortals, the banefire hits them hard but survive in some state to wreak havoc.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: groinkick on January 23, 2018, 07:46:41 PM
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Even if this is the plan, you have to prove that Nov 1st when the banefire is triggered isn't Halloween (cosmic Halloween).  (Bob tells Harry he has until the first natural birdsong in the morning of 11/1 which signals the end of Halloween.)  Otherwise, the date doesn't matter. It's Halloween in both cases.

We have to ask ourself.  Assuming Bob's model is correct, The Banefire will go off 'by tomorrow' November 1st.  Will the banefire go off on the Halloween part of Nov 1st or the nonHalloween part of Nov 1st.  It decides the issue of whether the Prisoners can be released as immortals vs. mortals.  If they are mortals, then the banefire kills them and whatever power/mantles they have go up for grabs.  If they are released as immortals, the banefire hits them hard but survive in some state to wreak havoc.

Bob knows that Halloween is a time that can kill Immortals...  There may be other ways...  Bane fire may be one of those ways.  The time of year might not matter if a Bane fire self destruct goes off.

Maeve probably chose that time because she knew that Mab would be vulnerable on that day to take her Mantle....  Nemesis may have fooled her into setting off the self destruct by leaving that little part out when she was influenced into thinking she should destroy the island.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 07:56:52 PM
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Bob knows that Halloween is a time that can kill Immortals...  There may be other ways...  Bane fire may be one of those ways.  The time of year might not matter if a Bane fire self destruct goes off.

I've thought of it too.  Still, if that is the case then it would be an operative conjunction similar to Halloween. So the argument between EG and myself would still largely be in effect.  There were many issues in play with him.  Some being my statement that many of the beings imprisoned within Demonreach had mantles/powers that could pass/consumed by others upon them dying.  He preferred a case in which they walked free not killed which is why he was insistent upon a nonHalloween Nov 1st event.  If Banefire does the same thing as Halloween, it renders his intended argument mute.

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Maeve probably chose that time because she knew that Mab would be vulnerable on that day to take her Mantle....  Nemesis may have fooled her into setting off the self destruct by leaving that little part out when she was influenced into thinking she should destroy the island.
I agree, but I think it possible Maeve knew it wouldn't or unlikely to work and therefore it would be a standoff between herself and her mom just like what happened with some flexibility built in.  To tie this into my Murphy/Mab theory, having both Mab and Murphy (or Molly per Ms. Duck) there on the island when it goes off, or Mab and Molly if you prefer Ms. Duck's theory, would make an entire history vulnerable whereby TTMurphy, TTHarry and allies never go back into the past to assist Murphy in assuming the Lady mantle... It would have unmade Maeve, Sarissa and so much of my timeline rendering our reality a complete wreck as far back as 1000+ years ago.  Truly when Sharkface (HWWBefore) says Mab would cease to be a problem, he wasn't kidding according to my or Ms. Duck's theory.

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“My boss might not go along with this plan,” I said. “After tonight, Mab will no longer be a concern to anyone.”
I've wondered before about trying to undo a TT pretzel like I've suggested.  I don't think it is as simple as taking out Murphy.  There has to be more to it than just that.  And, I think that situation on Demonreach would/could qualify.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: groinkick on January 23, 2018, 08:09:15 PM
I've thought of it too.  Still, if that is the case then it would be an operative conjunction similar to Halloween. So the argument between EG and myself would still largely be in effect.  There were many issues in play with him.  Some being my statement that many of the beings imprisoned within Demonreach had mantles/powers that could pass/consumed by others upon them dying.  He preferred a case in which they walked free not killed which is why he was insistent upon a nonHalloween Nov 1st event.  If Banefire does the same thing as Halloween, it renders his intended argument mute.

This I don't know about...  Like the Skin walkers, I don't think those are Mantles, they just are..  Kind of like Vampires but much more powerful.  Most Mantles seem to be of importance, if they were locked up (Mab for example being threatened by Harry) may very well create a huge amount of damage to the structure of things.  I'm leaning towards the idea that Mantles may be locked into very specific groups.

Dragons are incredibly powerful, and important but when they die...  That's it, gone, no Mantle. 

If someone does have a Mantle, the Warden would probably kill them come Halloween to ensure that the Mantle of responsibility doesn't cause too much damage to reality, and ensure those responsibilities are fulfilled.  Like Harry could have locked up Nemesis infected Maeve in September, and then kill her on Halloween so that the Lady's Mantle returns to Winter returning balance to Summer/Winter.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 08:14:19 PM
Isn't there a WOJL on human ideas creating these entities/mantles.  And that as long as these exist in the minds of humans, they don't cease to exist.  So in this fashion, this 'mantle/mask' doesn't just disappear.  I think it needs to be assigned to Oblivion before that happens.

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Dragons are incredibly powerful, and important but when they die...  That's it, gone, no Mantle. 
But can something come along and assume the mask/mantle that is left. When I say mask/mantle I'm talking about the idea that is anchored by Human idea and thought.

The Dragons exist so long as humans know about them.  It actually starts to make sense now after reading the Amber series.  If you kill the Dragon, a shadow of the Dragon continues to exist.  Even if the world upon which the Dragon is killed is destroyed, Corwin could using a shadow of this world and all its creatures, features reanimate it into a nearly 'perfect' copy.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: groinkick on January 23, 2018, 08:19:58 PM
Isn't there a WOJL on human ideas creating these entities/mantles.  And that as long as these exist in the minds of humans, they don't cease to exist.  So in this fashion, this 'mantle/mask' doesn't just disappear.  I think it needs to be assigned to Oblivion before that happens.

Well I'm saying that the Mantle being locked up on Demon Reach might still exist but it's trapped and unable to fulfill the responsibilities it has, causing damage.  So I don't know if there would be many Mantles locked up on DR, only powerful Beings.  Drakul for example I doubt is a Mantle.  Locking him up would be ok.  Mother Winter on the other hand would be devastating to reality if locked up there.  So I just don't think Mantle wearers would be locked up there, at least not any that are of importance to reality.

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The Dragons exist so long as humans know about them.

No...  Michael killed one.  It's gone.  Not returned.  There is no Mantle for it.  I am in the camp that there are those that have Mantles created by belief/ritual, and there are those that simply exist.  Dragons I believe are celestial beings that did not require belief, they simply exist.  Same for TWG, Outsiders, and others.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 08:34:51 PM
I think it was Mab's absence on Earth and her job that would do hideous things to Earth, not necessarily what she could do down below.  And, I think there might be things of Mab's weight class in the prison.

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No...  Michael killed one.  It's gone.  Not returned.  There is no Mantle for it.
I know what you are saying.  I also know about Amber and that Jim drew much material from it.  Jim also has parallel reality's within the Dresdenverse where there are likely those Dragon's alive and well.  So, I don't think it's gone in teh absolute sense of the word. And, in the Amber sense, it could be recreated since a shadow of it would be out there somewhere.

It's like Sue.  She died 60Million+ years ago. And yet, Harry was able to reach out into the 'shadows' and reach her spirit and strengthen the connection between her and her bones.  Sue's spirit being out there is very like what occurs in Amber.  The Dragon likely has this 'shadow' as well.  And that isn't to mention the fact there are other parallel realities in which the Dragon may be alive.

One other thing on the mantle debate.  The argument didn't just hinge on their being mantles within Demonreach.  I argued that there would be power that could be consumed/gobbled up on Halloween with the destruction of the entities by the banefire.  EG still didn't want the banefire to release any of the power by the entities within because it wasn't Halloween.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 23, 2018, 10:33:58 PM
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“Idiots,” he breathed. “Even if they could defeat the banefire . . .” “Wait,” I said. “Banefire?” “The fail-safe,” Vadderung said. “The fire the island showed you.” “Right. It’ll kill everything held there rather than let them escape, right?” “It is the only way,” Vadderung said. “If anyone managed to set free the things in the Well . . .” “Seems like it would be bad,” I said. “Not bad,” Vadderung said. “The end.”

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“So it’s going to happen sometime today or tonight.” Vadderung nodded. “And nearby.” “Why?”
More evidence to support that Halloween proper was the pivotal showdown period.

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“This is perfect,” she said. “In one night I’m going to unleash the Sleepers, slay a starborn, put an end to this troublesome mortal city, and begin a war between Summer and Winter. By the time the real assault on the Gates begins, Winter and Summer will be hunting one another in the night, and be so busy gouging out one another’s eyes that they’ll never see what is coming—all thanks to me. And you, of course. I couldn’t have done this at all without you.”
Part of their plan is to bypass the banefire but that requires coopting Harry it seems.  This is said near the end of the fight when Maeve gets a degree of control over Harry.

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“This is how it is supposed to be,” Maeve purred. “Knight and Lady, together. Fucking like animals. Taking what we please.” Her mouth turned up into a smile. “I thought you’d never let it in. Let it in deep, where I could touch.” Her lovely face took on a feigned, youthful innocence. “But I can touch it now, can’t I?” I growled. I’d forgotten how to do whatever that other thing was. All I could think about was the need. Claim her as a mate. Take whatever I pleased from her. Make her mine. Except . . . Wait. A fluttering surge of pure terror went through me, and it was energy enough to let me rip the Winter from my thoughts, to push it back. It didn’t want to go. It fought me every inch of the way, howling, filled with raw lust for flesh and for blood.  My ribs suddenly ached. My head spun a little. I suddenly needed that hand on the ground to keep my balance. Maeve saw it the second I regained control. Her eyelids lowered almost closed, and she breathed, “Ah. So close. But perhaps there is still time. Is that your staff, wizard, or are you just happy to see me?” I bared my teeth and said, “Maeve . . .”
That was Maeve attempting to co-opt Harry.

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“I know exactly what I have done,” Maeve snarled. “I have beaten you. This was never about the sleepers, or this accursed isle, or the lives of mortal insects. This was about beating you, you hidebound hag. About using your own games against you. Kill me now, and you risk destroying the balance of Winter and Summer forever, throwing all into chaos.”
Maeve then admits it wasn't about the sleepers, or the isle, or the mortals.  It was about besting Mab.

So we have a changing goal post of what was to be accomplished throughout the story.  I think there were several hurdles that Harry/allies had to jump over to 'win' or not 'lose.'
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: Mira on January 24, 2018, 12:32:41 PM
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I didn't mean to suggest it was 'that' bird. Or that particular species.  I was just saying in general Harry heard a bird and he looked about and saw Kringle walking to him.  Therefore the wards were down, Halloween had ended.  It wasn't even the first bird or necessarily strict confirmation of the rule, as Mab had recently departed with both Ladies and had conversed with Kringle, etc.  The rule concerning first bird most likely aligns with the precise rule, but there still can be a bit of fuzziness.  Hey there might be a 'cosmic' bird that decides these things not one on Earth. In mythology there actually are roosters whose crowing mean things.

It is my impression that it was daylight by then, birds and roosters begin much earlier.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: Quantus on January 24, 2018, 01:58:11 PM
It is my impression that it was daylight by then, birds and roosters begin much earlier.
Well, the Rooster bit is mostly a myth, those bastards sound off whenever they damn well feel like it  >:(
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: Mira on January 25, 2018, 10:38:29 PM
Well, the Rooster bit is mostly a myth, those bastards sound off whenever they damn well feel like it  >:(

Indeed they do, I grew up and a chicken ranch...   Also if different birds sing at all hours of the night, so "when the birds sing" means nothing unless you know the species of bird.. 
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 25, 2018, 11:47:41 PM
I argue that the real rule is a cosmic bird that sounds the end of the day or at least a special day like Halloween whereby immortals become mortal.  I say this because it shouldn't just be one time zones bird that decides the end of it.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: peregrine on January 26, 2018, 12:20:09 AM
Which does raise a good point.  Maybe it's each time zone's bird.  Or even each "area."  That the first birdsong in range counts, but if you're a few hundred miles away, you've got some extra time.

Which then brings up the question of what about places that have no birds at all.

I don't think there's some Ur-bird that does it, otherwise Bob wouldn't have listed the multiple options, but does the first bird song of England cut things short for California?

A better option would probably be dawn or dusk or something.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 26, 2018, 12:23:13 AM
I don't think Bob may have the 'exact' rule correct. 

There needs to be a cosmic rule to apply for mortality vs immortality.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: groinkick on January 26, 2018, 04:56:14 AM
Interesting fact....   Harry Houdini died on Halloween... 
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: Quantus on January 26, 2018, 02:17:54 PM
Which does raise a good point.  Maybe it's each time zone's bird.  Or even each "area."  That the first birdsong in range counts, but if you're a few hundred miles away, you've got some extra time.

Which then brings up the question of what about places that have no birds at all.

I don't think there's some Ur-bird that does it, otherwise Bob wouldn't have listed the multiple options, but does the first bird song of England cut things short for California?

A better option would probably be dawn or dusk or something.
Theoretically Dawn and Dusk could be equally as subjective and prone to local variation (from topography if nothing else).  I think Id be ok with it being a bit more of a local effect, bubbles of Night 'popping' into Day around Birds adn overlapping until it becomes continuous effect, as opposed to a hard line waving across the world.  I can also be ok with Bob's description being accurate to how it works in the American Midwest, but that there exists some other trigger event in bird-less climates, out in the ocean, etc. 
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on January 26, 2018, 02:23:54 PM
And what would happen if all birds become extinct?

This is why I think Bob's rule isn't the exact rule that is taking place behind the scenes.  The 'first' bird is just attuned to the rule.  In the absence of any birds, there may be something else that has an effect by being attuned to it.  I mean think of some of the rules of physics. We have generic equations that work in most conditions but when stretched to extreme conditions these generic equations are proved false and we now need better equations to model what works.  The 'first bird crow/birdsong' is a generic rule which then gets replaced by some other model.

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A better option would probably be dawn or dusk or something.
This is a better option, some wave that sweeps over the Earth, but this would require a sweeping mortality/immortality wave on Halloween.  If immortals want to continue on with their feeding, they'd need to keep up with this wave until the entire conjunction ceases for all portions of Earth.

It seems the end of the day is something that lags dawn but during the night/early morning.  (you can get further discrepancies at the polar regions where you get near all light 'days' or the opposite.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: Quantus on January 26, 2018, 02:37:09 PM
And what would happen if all birds become extinct?

This is why I think Bob's rule isn't the exact rule that is taking place behind the scenes.  The 'first' bird is just attuned to the rule.  In the absence of any birds, there may be something else that has an effect by being attuned to it.  I mean think of some of the rules of physics. We have generic equations that work in most conditions but when stretched to extreme conditions these generic equations are proved false and we now need better equations to model what works.  The 'first bird crow/birdsong' is a generic rule which then gets replaced by some other model.
That seems reasonable to me, it's more or less like the Stars for Conjuctions; they arent involved at all in the Cause-effect of it, they are just a reasonably reliable measuring stick for it.  It's mentioned that magically sensitive people can just /feel/ the change of Day and Night, so it would not be out of the question for Birds to simply be naturally sensitive to the feel of that Transition, like dogs detecting earthquakes
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: Kindler on January 31, 2018, 08:43:10 PM
Interesting fact....   Harry Houdini died on Halloween...
And that's why psychics have never been able to verifiably raise his spirit.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: Quantus on January 31, 2018, 08:57:48 PM
And that's why psychics have never been able to verifiably raise his spirit.
Yup.  He clearly Ascended to something...
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: wardenferry419 on February 01, 2018, 12:39:29 AM
Sorceror Supreme?
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: Quantus on February 01, 2018, 12:17:10 PM
Soooo, did a little research.  He died of acute pancreatitis that he refused to treat, opting to instead travel on to the next town for the next show rather than have the immediate surgery the doctors told him he needed.  Most believe that the condition was caused by an incident the week before where a "fan" got backstage and wanted to test Houdini's reputed "invulnerability" by more or less walking up and repeatedly punching Houdini in the abdomen while he was sitting on a couch.  By separate accounts Houdini wasnt so much ambushed as surprised by the number and strength of the guy's punches.

So if this was an ascension ritual, it was a damn weird on.   Seems more like he got sacrificed to someone(thing?)  :P
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: Kindler on February 01, 2018, 01:40:19 PM
Soooo, did a little research.  He died of acute pancreatitis that he refused to treat, opting to instead travel on to the next town for the next show rather than have the immediate surgery the doctors told him he needed.  Most believe that the condition was caused by an incident the week before where a "fan" got backstage and wanted to test Houdini's reputed "invulnerability" by more or less walking up and repeatedly punching Houdini in the abdomen while he was sitting on a couch.  By separate accounts Houdini wasnt so much ambushed as surprised by the number and strength of the guy's punches.

So if this was an ascension ritual, it was a damn weird on.   Seems more like he got sacrificed to someone(thing?)  :P

How's this: he already had power via some kind of deal, but his end of the bargain was to spread his name and fame, and performing in shows was part of the deal, which is why he chose to do that instead of get life-saving help.
Title: Re: Cold Days: Attack on Demonreach
Post by: raidem on February 05, 2018, 04:41:22 PM
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"Deposit another quarter to continue your call, asshole," I said. I thrust my staff toward the shadowy image, this time, focusing my will into a full-fledged attack. "Stregallum finitas." Scarlet light abruptly flooded over it, devouring its edges and moving inward. The image snarled, then gasped in pain. "Dresden! My demon will roll in your bones!" And then it broke off into a scream of anguish as my counterspell began to tear the image-sending apart. I was better than whoever had made the image, and they couldn't hold the spell in the face of my counter. The image and the scream alike faded slowly into the distance until both were gone. I allowed myself the smallest touch of satisfaction, and then turned to the woman on the ground.

This scarlet light attack from Harry in Storm Front reminds me of the attack on Demonreach whereby the scarlet dissonance occurs with the landing of the barge and it then travels to the middle of the island.