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The Dresden Files => DF Spoilers => DF Reference Collection => Topic started by: Serack on November 02, 2016, 05:36:41 PM
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When I first read Cold Case, I made the following note
Further thoughts about the age thing. Pretty much all the fae have been
presented as immortal, although not necessarily ageless when considering
the progression of gruffs… That the Miksani appear to have elders,
children, and apparent adolescents implies a more mortal like life cycle.
Makes me wonder how this stuff works… Especially since according to Mother
Summer and [WoJ] in the past, they procreate using mortals
and changelings.
Now that the story is released, it's time for me to get to business with the actual theorizing... (more to come)
Data points: These are bits of information about various fae and their natures with respect to their reproduction, life cycle, and social structure
- Eldest:
The mantle of Eldest is an important one in Faerie, and yes, it would pass on should its bearer perish.
Examples:- Eldest Gruff
- Cat Sith
- Eldest Fetch
- (theoretically) Lea
- Mother Summer quote from Cold Days about relationship between Fae and Mortals
It is at times very difficult to be so closely interwoven with mortals," she said.
"For you?"
"For all of Faerie," she replied.
"What do you mean?"
She gestured at herself. "we appear much as humans, do we not? Most of our folk do--or else they resemble another creature of the mortal world. Hounds, birds, stags, and so forth."
"Sure," I said.
"You are endlessly fascinating. We conceive our children with mortals. We move and sway in time to the mortal seasons. We dance to mortal music, make our homes like mortal dwellings, feast upon mortal foods. We find parts of ourselves becoming more like them, and yet we are not like them. Many of the things they think and feel, and a great many of their actions, are inexplicable to us."
- Changelings don't necessarily have to be first generation. It could be a from a Fae Grandparent or maybe even farther back
Question among my @HarriedWizard RPG group for @longshotauthor : would changelings be sterile? and if not how would the genetics work?
@DeusSolis @HarriedWizard No, not at all. And cautiously.
@DeusSolis @HarriedWizard :D Consider it a dormant gene group that could potentially be activated by environmental exposure.
@longshotauthor @HarriedWizard So a half-elf changeling could have kids that when exposed 2 faerydom, child could exhibit faery qualities?
@DeusSolis @HarriedWizard Yeah, though they'd need more exposure the wider the generation gap was. It would be impractical at some point.
- Wealth of conflicting WoJ that Mab used to be a human, all Fae have some mortal nature, and conversely that she and all sidhe had origins like Toot Toot
All the fae are part mortal. There is some bit of mortal in every single one of the fae
Mab herself was human once, and she eventually became the, uh, the fun-loving Mab that we all know.
Q: How big will Toot get?
A: Depends on how much influence he has in the world. That’s how the sidhe gain their size and power. Mab wasn’t always as big as she is now.
#150 Is Toot-toot’s increase in size due to his actions, or the title and followers he has acquired doing Harry’s bidding?”
It’s due to /Harry’s/ actions, mostly. Toot done hitched his star to Harry’s wagon. As a result, he’s taken actions he never would have taken on his own, some of which had major consequences. Toot has effectively become a much more powerful being than he was as an independent dewdrop faerie. The physical growth is a reflection of that fact.
I mean gosh, where do you think the Sidhe came from in the first place? :D
With all the things Toot Toot and the Za Lord's guard have done that made a difference, and with Toot getting bigger, is that going to upset the balance in the Summer court?
The answer is no, because they are not Summer anyway, they are wildfae. And everybody over in summer is going to blame Harry for everything they do. They regard them as a tool and Harry is the guy holding it. Harry would tell you that he's probably the tool but... Anyway Toot Toot's been growing because that's where the Sidhe came from to begin with. They weren't always all tall and glamorous, they kind of got that way.
You've previously said that the Sidhe and Mab came from origins like Toot Toot and kind of took on responsibility and grew. You've also said that every single Fae have come from mortal origins like changelings and Scions and stuff. Could you reconcile these two apparently contradictory origins?
I could but I won't *sing song* I'm not gonna tell you.* The Sidhe were created for a reason though. They were created specifically by certain agents who no longer had as much influence on the world as they once did. I've hinted at that in some previous books and I'll leave it at that and I'll leave the rest to you. That's perfectly enough material to come up with fan crack theory. And fan crack theory is awesome. I love reading fan crack theory. I will go through occasionally and look at the crack theory boards, and it's like excellent. And occasionally its like 'ooh that's actually better than what I had planned..." (Editor's note: This question is especially dear to me (http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,41109.0.html))
- List of known Changelings and their likely progenitors
- Ace: Redcap
- Meryl: Troll
- Lilly: Nymph?
- Fix: Gnome?
- Sarissa/Maeve: Mab
- Molly?: ?? (see Twitter WoJ above)
- Bestiary: This list will have three sections. Those that seem impossible to have mated and thus procreated with/from humans (Nonstandard). Fuzzy middle
- Standard Changelings: Those that seem impossible to have mated and thus procreated with/from humans. It's possible some of these use glamor to get it on...
- Sidhe
- Gnomes
- Jenny Greenteeth
- Gruffs
Q: The first gruffs seem to be different from the later sets in terms of looks, smell, and fighting approach. Were they sent by someone different?
A: No, they’re part of the same family. The first are just the newer gruffs, those most recent from being Changelings.
- Trolls
- Ogre
- Fetches?
- Dryads
- Nonstandard: Those that seem impossible to have mated and thus procreated with/from humans. It's possible some of these were shape shifted when encountered in the books, and can shift to a more Sidhe like form like Redcap's falcon buddies, or the Miksani
- Malks
- Otters
- Giant Bees
- Dew-Drop Fairies
- Raw-Head
- Fuzzy Middle: Mostly quadrupeds that also have anthropomorphic tendencies.
- The example of the Miksani: Things of note for this reference are:
- The Miksani are a "Hidden Peoples of the Winter Court."
- Community appears to reside wholly upon the Mortal Plane.
- Apparent family/tribal structure with members at various points in a life cycle. "Elders," "Children," apparent "adolescents"
- Shape Shifters (cormorant)
- Apparent Non European mythology background
- Pay "Tribute" in the form of children to man the armies at the Outer Gates
- Serack's Origins of the Sidhe reference topic (http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,41109.0.html)
The linked topic is my attempt to build a reference topic that does some very heavy lifting when it comes to collecting ideas from all kinds of mythological sources other than just the Dresden Files.
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So building off of the above information, here are the theories I'm working on. I'll flesh them out within this post.
Theories: So what can we theorize about Fae Procreation, Life Cycle, and the pertinence of their Social Structure on these things. where do all the Faeries come from?
Internal Sterility:
Data Point 2 above, quoting Mother Summer has her say, "We conceive our children with mortals." It is my theory, that part of the power that comes with "Choosing" to become a fay is a measure of functional immortality. Fae might not necessarily be ageless (See eldest gruff) but rather than get old and die, the seem to... ripen. The flip side of this functional immortality is that they are sterile with each other, and require coupling with a true mortal to pro-create.
I note that Mab said to Molly at the end of Cold Case:
"What happened?" I asked. "What happened?"
Mab regarded Carlos with a calm countenance. "What will happen every time you attempt to be with a man," she replied.
This theory implies she meant a "mortal man." Thus the Sidhe on the boat at the beginning of the story weren't at risk of suffering Carlos' fate.
Standard changeling
Pretty self evident, this theory is that Fae come from couplings between Fae and mortals. #3 above shows that such a match can in some situations result in changelings from generations other than just the initial one. There are a couple kinks with this theory though.
First how would Malks and other heavily beast like Fae procreate? I think it's pretty clear they don't have a human form since Grimalkin didn't assume a more human form when he served as Mab's voice. I think there are 3 or 4 possibilities for how they procreate, from most to least likely
- Hidden Peoples theory (see below)
- Procreation with beasts: I suspect that Fae/mortal couplings producing changelings require the "mortal" half of the pair to have some form of free will/soul/something... I sometimes refer to this as having a requisite metaphysical mass... It's possible DF kitties fit the bill, but I doubt it.
- Shape Shifting: Unlikely, but if the above assumption that Grimalkin doesn't have a human form is incorrect, then this becomes a possible avenue
- Spontaneous Pixy Generation: I actually think this is a viable Fae Genesis rout, but probably not for this kind of fae. See below for details.
The second kink in exclusively relying on only mortal changelings is the existence of tiny dew-drop faries. This is why I've developed the Spontaneous Pixy Generation theory which I will expound on in a separate section.
Hidden Peoples
With the Miksani as a possible example, it seems that there is a possibility that there are communities of Fae beings that don't reside in the Fae Realms but instead live on the Mortal Plane as "Hidden Peoples." It is my suspicion that while living almost wholly upon the mortal plane, these communities don't wholly embrace the fae quazi immortality discussed above in the internal infertility theory above. It is possible that members of these communities exist on a spectrum of Fae/Changeling/mortal nature where some members may be more fae, and some may be more mortal.
It's entirely likely that they have a wholly mortal group of believers in their mythology that they rely on to keep their mortal blood fresh by indoctrinating members into it. Or on another end of the spectrum, there may be Mortal communities with mythologies about certain fae, who also share bits of Fae blood in their heritage as a communal group, and in certain situations, the blood will manifest and bring them to their fae nature. Think the Werewolves in *shudder* Twilight.
The point is, I think it is likely that the "Hidden Peoples" are more mortal than the typical, living on the NN Plane faeries, and aren't hit by the internal infertility wammy. Communally they are mortal enough, or have mortal enough members of their community to make babies on their own. If they are sent to the Gates though, they probably embrace their Fae nature more fully and would no longer be "mortal enough."
Spontaneous Pixy Generation
As mentioned above, it seems almost impossible that "dew-drop" fairies like Toot-toot, and to a more extreme extent ones like the ant sized Elidee Toot summons to guide Harry in Summer Knight could come from changelings.
As a teenager, I was fascinated with the experiments performed by those embracing the Scientific Method to debunk the concept of spontaneous generation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spontaneous_generation). From Jan Baptist van Helmont's experiments with meat, cheese cloth, and maggots in the 1600s to Louis Pasture's experiments with broth and bacteria in the 1800s. It is almost foreign now to think that in ancient times, people thought vermin could appear on their own without progenitors, but that was the case and it fascinated me.
Well since fairy tales don't care about the scientific method, and since Harry literally called Toot-Toot a "dew-drop fairy" in Storm Front, perhaps his genesis literally came from a dew-drop. I like to think that the genesis was catalyzed from some child's fantastical belief that the dew drop was magical and contained a mystical being. I.E. a fairy. From there, these miniscule pixies gain significance by doing things like collecting baby teeth from children, or harnessing energy from orgies or playing pranks on humans or something, until they get to be Toots size...
I have strong suspicions that Toot's growth through the series is directly related to this process, and it will somehow be pivotal to how the BAT plays out.
Similarly, the Raw-Head could have spontaneously generated from mortal fears and nightmares of the carrion outside a butcher's shop...
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My question is if the fae were created with specific intentions and purpose and mab's main job is to defend the outer gates. Then the creator of the fae was an enemy of the outsiders. So who is the outsiders original enemies and where did they go
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My question is if the fae were created with specific intentions and purpose and mab's main job is to defend the outer gates. Then the creator of the fae was an enemy of the outsiders. So who is the outsiders original enemies and where did they go
I dont think the Fae themselves were Created to be guardian's of the Gates, only the binary court structure that are the current guardians of the Gates. The Fae themselves were likely around and kicking (as wildfae) long before the ascended to the role of Gate Guardian. We know they are not the first Guardians, and I know of at least two possible groups that may have preceded them, namely the various "Skyfather" pantheons like the Aesir and the greco-roman pantheon, and the Dragons before that. But those are just speculation, we have very little on actual history.
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General thoughts on the OP:
Lea: I thought we had a WOJ that she wasnt a mantled creature and had just ridden Mab's coattails to power?
With regard to procreation and especially Mama Summer's comments, I'd caution against the assumption that Mortal=Human or that procreation=sexual reproduction in all cases. I could, for example, see Half-animal fae mating with their animal side just as easily as the human, and in the case of say Malks I could see them getting it on with mortal Cats. I dont really (want to) see the Rawhead mating sexually at all, and imagine it more that he takes in a human corpse and sort of buds a new rawhead off itself asexually.
I also dont necessarily think that the fae need to procreate at the rates and in the numbers that Humans do, which would skew the population calcs. In Cold Case there were only 1/2 Dozen children in the group, but that might be on the low side for their average tribute as compared to times when they havent spent years under the heel of Sleeper-cultists. And I wouldnt rule out the possibility that they might hatch whole clutches of children at a time rather than the 1-2 birth range of humans. Malks probably have cat-sized litters, and if toot started as a little blinking Elidee Im imagining dewdrop fairies spawning more on the scale of insects that come in batches of thousands if not millions.
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But the overall reproduction rates can't be all that great, or the tribute wouldn't be as critical as Mab is making it out to be to Molly.
Consider that the human population has increased 6-fold in the last 100 years despite two world wars and countless other mortal frailties (and supernatural predators ;)). If fairies reproduced at the same rate as mortal, then how is it that Mab is having trouble guarding the Gates now if she had enough forces to do so at *any* point in the last millennium?
And remember that all this is exponential, so if the average birthrate of a Faerie is even slightly higher , that 6-fold ratio increases by huge amounts.
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But the overall reproduction rates can't be all that great, or the tribute wouldn't be as critical as Mab is making it out to be to Molly.
Consider that the human population has increased 6-fold in the last 100 years despite two world wars and countless other mortal frailties (and supernatural predators ;)). If fairies reproduced at the same rate as mortal, then how is it that Mab is having trouble guarding the Gates now if she had enough forces to do so at *any* point in the last millennium?
And remember that all this is exponential, so if the average birthrate of a Faerie is even slightly higher , that 6-fold ratio increases by huge amounts.
I honestly dont think the tribute actually was all that critical in and of itself. It was critical that the Winter Lady make a good first impression to the court, it was critical that Winter make good on support that was owed the bird-clan and which was long overdue thanks to maeve, it was important that an outsider infiltration be stamped out asap, and it was important that Molly come to certain realizations about the reality of her new life (and Carlos being in the area was an opportunity for that). But those actual 6 or so kids are not going to make any real difference in the war effort, at least not enough to warrant the double-Queenly attention they received; and in other circumstances I sincerely doubt the Winter Lady would have been the one dispatched to collect them.
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General thoughts on the OP:
Lea: I thought we had a WOJ that she wasnt a mantled creature and had just ridden Mab's coattails to power?
With regard to procreation and especially Mama Summer's comments, I'd caution against the assumption that Mortal=Human or that procreation=sexual reproduction in all cases. I could, for example, see Half-animal fae mating with their animal side just as easily as the human, and in the case of say Malks I could see them getting it on with mortal Cats. I dont really (want to) see the Rawhead mating sexually at all, and imagine it more that he takes in a human corpse and sort of buds a new rawhead off itself asexually.
I also dont necessarily think that the fae need to procreate at the rates and in the numbers that Humans do, which would skew the population calcs. In Cold Case there were only 1/2 Dozen children in the group, but that might be on the low side for their average tribute as compared to times when they havent spent years under the heel of Sleeper-cultists. And I wouldnt rule out the possibility that they might hatch whole clutches of children at a time rather than the 1-2 birth range of humans. Malks probably have cat-sized litters, and if toot started as a little blinking Elidee Im imagining dewdrop fairies spawning more on the scale of insects that come in batches of thousands if not millions.
Oooooooh, yah that's a great data point.
I think I managed to address most of your other thoughts in the fleshing out of the theory section.
Edit: Also, can you tell that not being able to discuss this stuff for so long has been rather painful for me?
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Edit: Also, can you tell that not being able to discuss this stuff for so long has been rather painful for me?
Haha, ya, I can only imagine sitting on this kind of data trove for your favorite pet theorizing and not being able to engage.
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It's easier to see the lack of conflict if you take Harry out of the conversation.
"We appear much as humans, do we not? Most of our folk do -- or else they resemble another creature of the mortal world. Hounds, birds, stags, and so forth. You are endlessly fascinating. We conceive our children with mortals."
In short, the words account for the conflict satisfactorily.
- The Fae reproduce with mortal creatures of the mortal world.
- Most of the mortal creatures are humans.
- Some are not.
Likewise, the Mab conundrum is resolved by the fact that there were multiple Mab's.
- The earliest faeries were manifested spirits of nature.
- The spirits grew in power, as well as size, like we're seeing with Toot.
- Once advanced enough, they copulate with mortals, and sire/birth changelings.
- Changelings that adopted their faery spirit became the first of the Fae.
- The first Mab was a faery formed from nature like Toot.
- The Mab we know is the latest to have that name, who started as a changeling.
- Changelings that choose their human nature end up burying their faery nature, but like junk DNA, some of it remains in them.
- Under the right conditions, with the right preparations, the suppressed faery nature of human-changelings can be stoked.
As for the Miskani, we still don't know that they breed together.
- The Miksani might sire/birth children with mortals and take them back to their tribe.
- The Miksani might coexist within a mortal tribe they look like; there might have been mortal spouses present at the funeral.
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As for the Miskani, we still don't know that they breed together.
- The Miksani might sire/birth children with mortals and take them back to their tribe.
- The Miksani might coexist within a mortal tribe they look like; there might have been mortal spouses present at the funeral.
The narrative only acknowledged the two "adolescent" Miksani who had already been seen in cormorant form, the cormorant's in the rafters, and the spouse of the deceased (who could have been mortal).
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The narrative only acknowledged the two "adolescent" Miksani who had already been seen in cormorant form, the cormorant's in the rafters, and the spouse of the deceased (who could have been mortal).
I must have gotten confused about the end scene when the Miksani all fly down and return to human form. I thought there were more in the room.
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When I first read Cold Case, I made the following note
Now that the story is released, it's time for me to get to business with the actual theorizing... (more to come)
Data points: These are bits of information about various fae and their natures with respect to their reproduction, life cycle, and social structure
- Eldest:Examples:
- Eldest Gruff
- Cat Sith
- Eldest Fetch
- (theoretically) Lea
- Mother Summer quote from Cold Days about relationship between Fae and Mortals
- Changelings don't necessarily have to be first generation. It could be a from a Fae Grandparent or maybe even farther back
- Wealth of conflicting WoJ that Mab used to be a human, all Fae have some mortal nature, and conversely that she and all sidhe had origins like Toot Toot
- List of known Changelings and their likely progenitors
- Ace: Redcap
- Meryl: Troll
- Lilly: Nymph?
- Fix: Gnome?
- Sarissa/Maeve: Mab
- Molly?: ?? (see Twitter WoJ above)
- Bestiary: This list will have three sections. Those that seem impossible to have mated and thus procreated with/from humans (Nonstandard). Fuzzy middle
- Standard Changelings: Those that seem impossible to have mated and thus procreated with/from humans. It's possible some of these use glamor to get it on...
- Sidhe
- Gnomes
- Jenny Greenteeth
- Gruffs
- Trolls
- Ogre
- Fetches?
- Dryads
- Nonstandard: Those that seem impossible to have mated and thus procreated with/from humans. It's possible some of these were shape shifted when encountered in the books, and can shift to a more Sidhe like form like Redcap's falcon buddies, or the Miksani
- Malks
- Otters
- Giant Bees
- Dew-Drop Fairies
- Raw-Head
- Fuzzy Middle: Mostly quadrupeds that also have anthropomorphic tendencies.
- The example of the Miksani: Things of note for this reference are:
- The Miksani are a "Hidden Peoples of the Winter Court."
- Community appears to reside wholly upon the Mortal Plane.
- Apparent family/tribal structure with members at various points in a life cycle. "Elders," "Children," apparent "adolescents"
- Shape Shifters (cormorant)
- Apparent Non European mythology background
- Pay "Tribute" in the form of children to man the armies at the Outer Gates
- Serack's Origins of the Sidhe reference topic (http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,41109.0.html)
The linked topic is my attempt to build a reference topic that does some very heavy lifting when it comes to collecting ideas from all kinds of mythological sources other than just the Dresden Files.
In Summer Knight, Meryl refers to Lilly as being Half-Nixie.
"I'll just tell the cops that a half-nixie, professional nude model, went missing in Fairieland."
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Not having read cold case yet I'm at a disadvantage in info here. But I have a problem with the idea sidhe cannot mate and produce... What was the point of the sidhe wars or how did those they where based from manage then?(I.e. The Greeks)
I think the caveat on them doing so is in their nature, they don't have or use the primary 'elements' that make procreation possible above physical function. Harry and a spirit procreate via love connection not physical act. So if such acts are foreign to them...?
Not sure how the tributes work, but that's them sacrificing themselves yea? The old school worship/ giving of yourself/ sacrifice. It was that element that made Bonnie, it's that element the tributes actually contribute?
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I honestly dont think the tribute actually was all that critical in and of itself.
Or maybe it was. Fae are basically immortal, so 6 warriors might be the fighting equivalent of 600 years. Assuming that some die young while others last several hundred years or millennia.
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If we are to assume that the Tribute must be made of Changelings, it really makes me wonder if they've all made their Choice or not.
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If we are to assume that the Tribute must be made of Changelings, it really makes me wonder if they've all made their Choice or not.
Might not matter, in that there would still be tactical uses for mortals. They'd have mortal magic which is unique in the context of outsiders, for example. If they choose humkna they'd still have been gifted to Winter by their parents, no different than a mortal First-Born baby or whatever traded away. Hell, that might have been how Rashid got his job once upon a time.
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Or maybe it was. Fae are basically immortal, so 6 warriors might be the fighting equivalent of 600 years. Assuming that some die young while others last several hundred years or millennia.
Sure, but you still have to put them in to proportion with the size of the army they will serve in -- millions strong.
This was more important as a symbolic gesture. There are many, many more places where outsiders/Fomor have been picking away at Winter's recruiting -- because Winter appeared too weak to defend them. Molly will no doubt have to make a few more examples, but word will get around.
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Or maybe Fae are simply capable of reproducing with each other, no humans needed?
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Or maybe Fae are simply capable of reproducing with each other, no humans needed?
Don't seem to be or perhaps they choose not to... At least that appears to be the pattern for the Winter Court..
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Don't seem to be or perhaps they choose not to... At least that appears to be the pattern for the Winter Court..
Tossing out a Devil's advocate option here, but maybe procreating with Fae is equivalent to inbreeding, meaning they can technically get away with it but if done too often it leads to "undesirable" outcomes and they need periodic injections of fresh Mortal stock into a bloodline to keep it where it needs to be (ie. mortal enough).
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Don't seem to be or perhaps they choose not to... At least that appears to be the pattern for the Winter Court..
Actually we know very little about fae reproduction and there are many kinds of fae with very different mythological backgrounds.
We see the changelings because they live in the mortal world but many fae might not have that much contact with mortals.
And for some types of fae it might even not practical to reproduce with humans.
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Actually we know very little about fae reproduction and there are many kinds of fae with very different mythological backgrounds.
We see the changelings because they live in the mortal world but many fae might not have that much contact with mortals.
And for some types of fae it might even not practical to reproduce with humans.
We do know what Mother Summer told Harry though... Cold Days page 326
"You are endlessly fascinating. We conceive our children with mortals. We move and sway
in time with mortal seasons.
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We do know what Mother Summer told Harry though... Cold Days page 326
That one is quoted often but it does not mean with mortals exclusively.
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That one is quoted often but it does not mean with mortals exclusively.
No, that is true, but in the full context of what she says about how intertwined the mortal world and the Fae world is, I'd say not mating with a mortal is the exception rather than the rule.. Even the likes of Kincaid and Meryl who's father or mother didn't even remotely resemble a human, mated with a human.. Though granted according to Eb more often as not that didn't work out too well for the babies. Even Mab, was either mortal like Molly when the mantle of power invaded her, or she was a changeling and made the choice to go Fae instead of remain human.. She mated with a human at some point and had two changeling children.. One would presume as Queen, she could mate with any of the Fae princes of her choice, but she didn't.
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Actually we know very little about fae reproduction and there are many kinds of fae with very different mythological backgrounds.
We see the changelings because they live in the mortal world but many fae might not have that much contact with mortals.
And for some types of fae it might even not practical to reproduce with humans.
While I completely agree with this statement it could go the other way too. The fae that don't resemble humans may not even reproduce in the same way. PURE SPECULATION : maybe some get a bit Shakespearean and impregnate or become impregnated in a dream....Imagine how easy that could be dream sexy dreams with tall dark and dangerous poof one changeling and one confused mortal.
If you look at the mythology of some fairy (spelled this way to denote stories told by mortals) stories they get weird with their reproduction. MAYBE some of these are taken literally by the Fae. Which means there could be thousands of changeling
Remember close to 700,000 people were reported missing in 2010 alone! Some of those could be changelings. If only 1/4 are winter tributes in just 10 years that's 1,750,000 tributes which could make winter's army a bit more realistic.
Some math for you....
131,000,000 people are born every year
if only .266% of those are are changelings....348,460 or 1 in every 20,000 which is about how common albinism is
If half of those are winter....174,230
And 1/4 of 700,000....175,000
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Remember close to 700,000 people were reported missing in 2010 alone! Some of those could be changelings.
So here's the fallacy in that claim:
It's true that ~700,000 missing person cases are opened every year, but what is not mentioned is that roughly the same amount of previously opened cases is closed every year. In fact, in the last few years the amount of closed cases has been larger than the amount of open cases. Thus the total amount of missing people has actually been going down in the last few years (about 2-3% per year).
See here for 2013:
https://archives.fbi.gov/archives/about-us/cjis/ncic/ncic-missing-person-and-unidentified-person-statistics-for-2013
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So here's the fallacy in that claim:
It's true that ~700,000 missing person cases are opened every year, but what is not mentioned is that roughly the same amount of previously opened cases is closed every year. In fact, in the last few years the amount of closed cases has been larger than the amount of open cases. Thus the total amount of missing people has actually been going down in the last few years (about 2-3% per year).
See here for 2013:
https://archives.fbi.gov/archives/about-us/cjis/ncic/ncic-missing-person-and-unidentified-person-statistics-for-2013
While this is true it should be noted according to the website you posted 84,961 are still unaccounted for per year!
I doubt all changelings would be reported missing.
Hey more importantly the Dresdenverse is fictional and Jim Butcher is its maker if he wants winter to have millions of warriors it's his world!
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While this is true it should be noted according to the website you posted 84,961 are still unaccounted for per year!
No, this is the total accumulated number left after the additions and subtractions of all the previous years. If you look a bit, you'll find it generally keeps decreasing year by year.
Quick googling says the total number is:
Active Entries as of 1/1/2008 - 105,229
Active Entries as of 1/1/2009 - 102,764
Active Entries as of 12/31/2009 - 96,192
Active Entries as of 12/31/2010 - 85,820
Active Entries as of 01/01/2012 - 85,158
Active Entries as of 01/01/2013 - 87,217
Active Entries as of 01/01/2014 - 84,136
Active Entries as of 01/01/2015 - 84,924
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No, this is the total accumulated number left after the additions and subtractions of all the previous years. If you look a bit, you'll find it generally keeps decreasing year by year.
Quick googling says the total number is:
Active Entries as of 1/1/2008 - 105,229
Active Entries as of 1/1/2009 - 102,764
Active Entries as of 12/31/2009 - 96,192
Active Entries as of 12/31/2010 - 85,820
Active Entries as of 01/01/2012 - 85,158
Active Entries as of 01/01/2013 - 87,217
Active Entries as of 01/01/2014 - 84,136
Active Entries as of 01/01/2015 - 84,924
*hands raised* goodness I was just trying to say it's not unheard-of that people go missing. I guess I'm just as wrong as Harry.....
Dead beat harry to Butters.....
"All right" I said " Last year in the U.S. alone more than nine hundred thousand people were reported missing and not found"
"Are you serious?"
"Yeah" I said "you can check with the FBI.....that breaks down to one person in three hundred and twenty five. Vanishing. Every year....."
I'm not trying to argue your real world statistics i was just pointing out people go missing and in the FICTIONAL world of Dresden some of them could be changelings. it was my take on this topic of fae reproduction and how it can go unseen....just my opinion. I'm leaving this topic as my two cents worth is unwanted....bye
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I'm not trying to argue your real world statistics i was just pointing out people go missing and in the FICTIONAL world of Dresden some of them could be changelings. it was my take on this topic of fae reproduction and how it can go unseen....just my opinion. I'm leaving this topic as my two cents worth is unwanted....bye
Oops, this was not my intention and I apologize for presenting my case so strongly.
As you say, the exact numbers should have no bearing on your theory. I was merely pointing that the "facts" as presented in DB are not in fact true in the real world. I had previously got into an argument about this with someone and was still feeling the echoes.
Sorry again.
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*hands raised* goodness I was just trying to say it's not unheard-of that people go missing. I guess I'm just as wrong as Harry.....
Dead beat harry to Butters.....
"All right" I said " Last year in the U.S. alone more than nine hundred thousand people were reported missing and not found"
"Are you serious?"
"Yeah" I said "you can check with the FBI.....that breaks down to one person in three hundred and twenty five. Vanishing. Every year....."
I'm not trying to argue your real world statistics i was just pointing out people go missing and in the FICTIONAL world of Dresden some of them could be changelings. it was my take on this topic of fae reproduction and how it can go unseen....just my opinion. I'm leaving this topic as my two cents worth is unwanted....bye
I get what you're saying, but... yeah, there's always a 'but'... as I recall Harry follows that statement up with saying that that number - expressed as % of the population at large, is almost exactly the same ratio of losses herd animals in the wild experience from predators. The implication being that all those "missing" people are probably dead because of supernatural creatures (Vampires, Ghouls, whatever) - that whatever small margin of error leftovers there are aren't really worth considering.
We have to remember here that to make anything in the DV make sense we have to presume that the world of Harry Dresden is an exact copy of our world taken whole... and that the only differences between the two are those the author tells us about. One of those differences would be that magic works there. Another might be how those missing statistics work. Your idea works if, and only if, those changelings are going unreported as missing and therefore not part of that statistical group.
This would be a bit difficult to pull off as - at least in the U.S. - census numbers are pretty accurate and taken regularly. The mismatch between the number of people the census says should be around and the number practical experience says actually exist should balance fairly closely, not leaving a whole lot of room for large #'s of changelings to just disappear, unless... they're somehow managing to elude the census as well. Might they fake the data there? Sure. But that's getting into a rather extreme level of plotting and planning to pull off a charade that can be accomplished in other, easier ways.
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Was that a cluebat to the size of Mab 's border guard that Butcher slipped in on us?