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The Dresden Files => DF Spoilers => Topic started by: wardenferry419 on November 07, 2017, 11:34:58 PM
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Why was Cowl working with White Court dissenters?
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ostensibly to bring someone under his control into control of the White Court, only when they realized that it wasn't going to succeed did they unleash the Uberghouls.
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I really feel like Elaine was less trying to solve the mystery and more like trying to keep a few friends alive.
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To upset the balances of power in the supernatural world.
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He had involvement in starting the Council vs Red Court war. His actions led to elimination of Kemmlerites. He nearly caused an internal war among White Court, I would say that Mavra is opposed to Cowl. And, that is the stuff that is known.
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He had involvement in starting the Council vs Red Court war. His actions led to elimination of Kemmlerites. He nearly caused an internal war among White Court, I would say that Mavra is opposed to Cowl. And, that is the stuff that is known.
you say that Cowl and Mavra are on opposite sides, but they were both at the Masquerade and seemed comfortable being there... I'm not saying that they are working together, but I don't see them opposed to each other, maybe in competition with each other?
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I can go with the competition bit.
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I would say that Mavra is opposed to Cowl.
Specifically out of the three Kemmlerites? I'm still not sure whether her motivation in using Harry against them was to retrieve the book for herself or deny it to any other players. But she must have been using a proxy to avoid being noticed as the one opposing the Darkhallow - she's powerful enough to have killed at least Grevane and Corpsetaker single-handedly, if she'd chosen to move openly.
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Well, she is undead; so, the Kemmlerites were possible a greater threat to her than many others would be.
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Well, she is undead; so, the Kemmlerites were possible a greater threat to her than many others would be.
This.
As to them being on opposite sides ... while Cowl was at the party, I don't think he was working toward war. I think he was working towards an infected member of the Winter court. So, them being in opposition isn't necessarily the case.
Regarding the Word, Harry said that it contained power over Mavra. Her wanting it off the market makes sense. Now if we see her with it again, we can think of other reasons, but she SHOULD have destroyed it immediately if she was keeping it out of others hands.
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It may be effective in elevating her position within the Black Court. They are like her but without her Kemmler knowledge.
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I think part of Cowl's long term strategy is to introduce as much strife and dissension in the major powers as possible. Not only does this disrupt organized resistance to his plans, it also allows him to insert his own people in key positions. Causing either a change in the ruler of the White Court or increasing the infighting would serve his purpose.
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Beat enough hornet's nest and you'll get a swarm.
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Beat enough hornet's nest and you'll get a swarm.
You know, there is more truth here than just on the surface.
Don't forget that the same swarm can attack you as well as others.
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The trick is to either beat the nest without being detected by the swarm or by giving the swarm a more visible/appealing target to attack. Cowl is managing to do both pretty well so far.
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Practice makes perfect.
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Cowl does what the outsiders want him to do. Someone might be deluded into thinking he can use an outsider for his own purpose but to knowingly bring Nemesis here shows something more.
The outsiders want to destabalize things and weaken those who defend the gates, the council and the fairy courts. Their main pawn at that time was the red court and the white court was supposed to be their ally but they were not really doing anything against the council. Cowl wanted to change that.
Failing that weakening them would create opportunities for the fomor or the red court to expand or something like that.
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My main question with Cowl: Is he A) nemfected, B) working willing with Nemesis to achieve shared goals, or C) working with nemesis with the intent to later betray them and try to take more power/exploit the situation they have created for himself?
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My main question with Cowl: Is he A) nemfected, B) working willing with Nemesis to achieve shared goals, or C) working with nemesis with the intent to later betray them and try to take more power/exploit the situation they have created for himself?
I'd say that he is working for the same side as Nemesis, evidence for that is he delivered the infected Knife at Bianca's party... Is he after a huge chunk of power for himself? That was answered in Dead Beat when he attempted and almost pulled off Death Hallow. The same could be said for Mavra, who was also after Kemmler's book. So yeah, in that light it is a give that either Cowl or Mavra could betray the power they are working for in the belief that they could ultimately replace them..
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Maybe all of thee above with a) being the least likely.
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I'm still unconvinced that mankind CAN be Nemfected.
I think it would be really easy for a nemfected wizard to summon outsiders, as human wizards are the only ones who can.
Now if Cowl were nemfected, wouldn't it make more sense for him to go around nemfecting other wizards to summon more outsiders?
No, Cowl isn't nemfected.
He IS however working with Nemesis.
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I'm still unconvinced that mankind CAN be Nemfected.
I think it would be really easy for a nemfected wizard to summon outsiders, as human wizards are the only ones who can.
Now if Cowl were nemfected, wouldn't it make more sense for him to go around nemfecting other wizards to summon more outsiders?
No, Cowl isn't nemfected.
He IS however working with Nemesis.
I'm not sure why mortals couldn't be infected. Why wouldn't they? I know it fails the logic test that an infected mortal would just call up all the Outsiders they need, but there might be an element to Nemesis infection that makes doing that impossible. Infected wizards may have their magic changed enough that it no longer functions identically to mortal magic. Personally, I believe that summoning Outsiders requires an act of free will, and Nemesis infection supplants or subverts it enough that it no longer works.
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I think Nemesis infection is a spiritual infection similar to a denarian shadow. It is a form of possession as shown by Cat Sith when Nemesis took completely over but in that mode it is easily detected. Usually it just sits there influencing the hosts nature and decisions.
It can infect everything and everyone that can have power because it is basically outsider power at least as it expresses itself this side of the gate.
It can even infect a knife so a wizzard should not be a fundamental problem.
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I'm still unconvinced that mankind CAN be Nemfected.
I think it would be really easy for a nemfected wizard to summon outsiders, as human wizards are the only ones who can.
Now if Cowl were nemfected, wouldn't it make more sense for him to go around nemfecting other wizards to summon more outsiders?
No, Cowl isn't nemfected.
He IS however working with Nemesis.
I'm not sure why mortals couldn't be infected. Why wouldn't they? I know it fails the logic test that an infected mortal would just call up all the Outsiders they need, but there might be an element to Nemesis infection that makes doing that impossible. Infected wizards may have their magic changed enough that it no longer functions identically to mortal magic. Personally, I believe that summoning Outsiders requires an act of free will, and Nemesis infection supplants or subverts it enough that it no longer works.
What we've seem to see so far is that Nemfection allows the one infected to go against their nature and do things they could not do before.
Mortals/Mankind already can do that. We can already go against our natures and do things that we really shouldn't be able to do.
Thus, I don't think it's possible to be nemfected.
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I'm not sure why mortals couldn't be infected. Why wouldn't they? I know it fails the logic test that an infected mortal would just call up all the Outsiders they need, but there might be an element to Nemesis infection that makes doing that impossible. Infected wizards may have their magic changed enough that it no longer functions identically to mortal magic. Personally, I believe that summoning Outsiders requires an act of free will, and Nemesis infection supplants or subverts it enough that it no longer works.
What we've seem to see so far is that Nemfection allows the one infected to go against their nature and do things they could not do before.
Mortals/Mankind already can do that. We can already go against our natures and do things that we really shouldn't be able to do.
Thus, I don't think it's possible to be nemfected.
That would only makes an infection more difficult to detect. Humans have nature, power, spirit so until something disproves it I have to assume humans can be infected.
There is no reason to change the human to something else first.
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One possibility with the nem-infected is that it takes those beings with a nature and gives them a form of free will; so, perhaps, it gives those with free will and gives them a nature. There has to be a method to Nemesis madness.
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One possibility with the nem-infected is that it takes those beings with a nature and gives them a form of free will; so, perhaps, it gives those with free will and gives them a nature. There has to be a method to Nemesis madness.
People with free will still have a nature, they just have the free will to override it (which they almost never do anyway)
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I'd say that he is working for the same side as Nemesis, evidence for that is he delivered the infected Knife at Bianca's party... Is he after a huge chunk of power for himself? That was answered in Dead Beat when he attempted and almost pulled off Death Hallow.
It's cute that people still believe he was seriously attempting the Darkhallow even after he shows up again doing nothing with any connection to it.
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I'm not sure why mortals couldn't be infected. Why wouldn't they?
Mortals being susceptible to Nemesis infection is counter-Occamian. Every case that has been cited as possible Nemesis infection of a mortal, we already had at least one perfectly good explanation for before CD. The only thing Nemesis actually explains is Aurora.
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It's cute that people still believe he was seriously attempting the Darkhallow even after he shows up again doing nothing with any connection to it.
He didn't start the vortex, I think that was Grevane; but, he definitely wasn't saying no to seconds at the power buffet.
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It's cute that people still believe he was seriously attempting the Darkhallow even after he shows up again doing nothing with any connection to it.
He had put a lot of effort in it and was certainly not going to stop taking the power until Harry and Bob forced him to. No self respecting evil genius can say no to so much power.
But it failed so it white night he was back to his old game of promoting the outsider agenda.
I think you can not safely consort with outsiders for an extended period without loosing it anyway, they are those lovecraft like beings and madness is a central theme here. The outsiders wanted to take the opportunity and so he was there.
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He had put a lot of effort in it and was certainly not going to stop taking the power until Harry and Bob forced him to. No self respecting evil genius can say no to so much power.
But it failed so it white night he was back to his old game of promoting the outsider agenda.
I think you can not safely consort with outsiders for an extended period without loosing it anyway, they are those lovecraft like beings and madness is a central theme here. The outsiders wanted to take the opportunity and so he was there.
I agree wholeheartedly.
However, I think losing the DarkHallow took something out of Cowl. That's why we didn't see him in the deeps, just through a gateway.
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I agree wholeheartedly.
However, I think losing the DarkHallow took something out of Cowl. That's why we didn't see him in the deeps, just through a gateway.
I'm going to laugh if he wound up unstuck in time like the time travel theories keep saying will happen to Dresden.
Maybe he's stuck on the Astral Plane somewhere? Incorporeal? Or he had to construct a meatsuit out of ectoplasm and can't leave the Nevernever?
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I hope we find out what Cowl's darkhallow fallout was. Harry successfully nudged his elbow during the procedure disrupting it so there should have been some feedback directed at Cowl.
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That is why I am sure that Cowl is not a current SC member. Someone would have noticed a new physical problem.
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That is why I am sure that Cowl is not a current SC member. Someone would have noticed a new physical problem.
Perhaps he's one of the wizards who were called but unavailable during the Council meeting in Chicago.
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If that is the case, I go with pyramid-sitter or wizard on sabbatical. The one that got "real married" I can understand.
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If that is the case, I go with pyramid-sitter or wizard on sabbatical. The one that got "real married" I can understand.
I've always wondered about pyramid sitting. Is it sitting on top of a pyramid? Is it babysitting little pyramids? Is it sitting and folding your body into a pyramid shape?
The mysteries of the Dresden Files are widely varied.
Someone ask this at the next Q&A.
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He had put a lot of effort in it and was certainly not going to stop taking the power until Harry and Bob forced him to. No self respecting evil genius can say no to so much power.
Sure they could, if it serves them better in the long run.
It sometimes feels to me like rather a lot of arguments about the nature of the villains in this series assume Evil has to equal Chaotic; Harry is prone to this himself. I had kind of hoped that GS bringing the problems of Chaotic into closer focus (as with the epiphany that "let the world burn" meant letting Molly burn) would start him on the path to not being so Chaotic Neutral himself, but if so it's not a fast process.
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Sure they could, if it serves them better in the long run.
Being a god can not be that bad. We have seen a few and they seem to amuse themselves.
Cowl could have taken the amount of power he needed for his next undertaking.
It sometimes feels to me like rather a lot of arguments about the nature of the villains in this series assume Evil has to equal Chaotic; Harry is prone to this himself. I had kind of hoped that GS bringing the problems of Chaotic into closer focus (as with the epiphany that "let the world burn" meant letting Molly burn) would start him on the path to not being so Chaotic Neutral himself, but if so it's not a fast process.
With Cowl it is not about order or chaos on a personal level, it is about reaching goals for the outsiders in a really short term say before the end of the series.
The power would be useful. It is would bring the end of reality closer. He could not let it go.
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Being a god can not be that bad. We have seen a few and they seem to amuse themselves.
And we also are told that they have very limited ability to affect material reality. We have no reason to presume that they have mortal free will, and the few we see are rather strongly aspected, in terms of having power within a particular sphere of interest or influence.
Cowl could have taken the amount of power he needed for his next undertaking.
Why would you posit that god-tier power in the specific direction of necromancy is useful to the Outsiders' goals, whatever those might be ?
With Cowl it is not about order or chaos on a personal level, it is about reaching goals for the outsiders in a really short term say before the end of the series.
That seems an unwarranted assumption to me. We have, sfaict, as yet no clear idea of Cowl's endgame; nor do we know how long he has been doing this. I would argue that him being Senior Council power level suggests he's been doing whatever he has been doing for a fairly long time, given that the examples we have seem to be wizards of multiple centuries in age.
The power would be useful. It is would bring the end of reality closer. He could not let it go.
And again, you are asserting that the guy is essence of Chaotic. That he has no impulse control whatsoever, no ability to throw over a short-term possibility for a long-term plan that may be more in keeping with his ongoing goals. We have evidence that he has been working with Outsider-related stuff both in GP and in WN, and at least the plausible suggestion that he has been doing so a lot longer. The thought that he would throw that all over to grab particularly at necromantic power makes no sense to me.
Consider instead; Cowl and Mavra are working together. Cowl and Mavra work together in GP towards greater supernatural instability; setting up Lea to get the athame is also setting up Mavra to get Amoracchius. We know from SF that Bianca does not leave her enemies alive, she says so directly to Harry; therefore the whole Rube Goldberg scheme of inviting Harry to the party and kidnapping Susan to torment him is out of character for her. We do not know all of what is going on there, but we do know Bianca learned dark necromantic-type magic from Mavra, Harry registers this. We do not, technically, know which of them was running the Nightmare, but with the Nightmare as a sock puppet, Harry can be manipulated in a fairly detailed and immediate level all through that book (by his reactions to the Nightmare, to various other Red vampires, to the ghosts Mavra or Bianca torments with the black barbed-wire spell, and by Mavra and Bianca directly). Which succeeds in removing Amoracchius' protection, and which succeeds in pushing Harry and Bianca to a final confrontation which starts a war between the White Council and the Red Court that benefits neither of them.
So if we look at DB from the perspective that Cowl and Mavra are working together, things become clearer. Bony Tony is set up to find the Word. Mavra manipulates Harry into taking out the competition. (The photographs she takes of Murphy in BR to blackmail him in DB are fairly convincing proof that this is a deliberate set-up, to me.) Mavra wants the Word under control because, according to Harry in their confrontation at the end of DB, the Word contains instructions on how to use necromancy against the Black Court.
And, when Harry and Butters are talking in DB about the circumstances that made Chicago a possible place to have the Darkhallow, one of the things cited as contributing to that is the turbulence in the border between the NN and the real world there. Which is caused, in DB, by the ghosts tormented by black magic. So Mavra has actively contributed to making Chicago a possible Darkhallow site from several years earlier.
I find it easier to buy this set of cross-connections as competent people planning together than as people with poor impulse control blundering around like Keystone Kops and jumping from one plan to another whenever something shiny shows up. Particularly when the end result keeps being that people who jump for immediate gratification get killed in ways that benefit people who don't.
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And we also are told that they have very limited ability to affect material reality. We have no reason to presume that they have mortal free will, and the few we see are rather strongly aspected, in terms of having power within a particular sphere of interest or influence.
We are told. But is that the same as we are shown?
Why would you posit that god-tier power in the specific direction of necromancy is useful to the Outsiders' goals, whatever those might be ?
Killing people. Especially the senior council as nobody in the story seemed to think that impossible. That includes listen to wind and Morgan who are better informed than Harry.
A god called Odin turned up at Chichen Itza and was very involved.
Also there is no reason to think Cowl would become a necromancy god. Simmilar rituals have been used to create other gods who did not become necromancy gods.
That seems an unwarranted assumption to me. We have, sfaict, as yet no clear idea of Cowl's endgame;
We actually do. The athame is a giveaway. There is no more end game after empty night and that was what he was trying to achieve by infecting the fairy courts.
nor do we know how long he has been doing this. I would argue that him being Senior Council power level suggests he's been doing whatever he has been doing for a fairly long time, given that the examples we have seem to be wizards of multiple centuries in age.
Probably but the stars weren’t right and now with the bat in sight everyone is preparing for the end game.
And again, you are asserting that the guy is essence of Chaotic. That he has no impulse control whatsoever, no ability to throw over a short-term possibility for a long-term plan
I did not say that at all. There was a lot of planning behind the darkhallow. It was not just that he decided to kill a lot of people to get powerful because hey it was halloween and that is what you do.
that may be more in keeping with his ongoing goals. We have evidence that he has been working with Outsider-related stuff both in GP and in WN, and at least the plausible suggestion that he has been doing so a lot longer. The thought that he would throw that all over to grab particularly at necromantic power makes no sense to me.
You need power to achieve goals. Cowl is driven by goals. Those goals are for reasons I have stated the goals of the outsiders. Consider how the outsiders would have been helped by a more powerful tool and you get the idea.
Consider instead; Cowl and Mavra are working together. Cowl and Mavra work together in GP towards greater supernatural instability; setting up Lea to get the athame is also setting up Mavra to get Amoracchius. We know from SF that Bianca does not leave her enemies alive, she says so directly to Harry; therefore the whole Rube Goldberg scheme of inviting Harry to the party and kidnapping Susan to torment him is out of character for her. We do not know all of what is going on there, but we do know Bianca learned dark necromantic-type magic from Mavra, Harry registers this. We do not, technically, know which of them was running the Nightmare, but with the Nightmare as a sock puppet, Harry can be manipulated in a fairly detailed and immediate level all through that book (by his reactions to the Nightmare, to various other Red vampires, to the ghosts Mavra or Bianca torments with the black barbed-wire spell, and by Mavra and Bianca directly). Which succeeds in removing Amoracchius' protection, and which succeeds in pushing Harry and Bianca to a final confrontation which starts a war between the White Council and the Red Court that benefits neither of them.
Which nicely fits into the outsiders overall goal of weakening the white council and the fairy courts.
So if we look at DB from the perspective that Cowl and Mavra are working together, things become clearer. Bony Tony is set up to find the Word. Mavra manipulates Harry into taking out the competition. (The photographs she takes of Murphy in BR to blackmail him in DB are fairly convincing proof that this is a deliberate set-up, to me.) Mavra wants the Word under control because, according to Harry in their confrontation at the end of DB, the Word contains instructions on how to use necromancy against the Black Court.
And, when Harry and Butters are talking in DB about the circumstances that made Chicago a possible place to have the Darkhallow, one of the things cited as contributing to that is the turbulence in the border between the NN and the real world there. Which is caused, in DB, by the ghosts tormented by black magic. So Mavra has actively contributed to making Chicago a possible Darkhallow site from several years earlier.
I find it easier to buy this set of cross-connections as competent people planning together than as people with poor impulse control blundering around like Keystone Kops and jumping from one plan to another whenever something shiny shows up. Particularly when the end result keeps being that people who jump for immediate gratification get killed in ways that benefit people who don't.
Of course it was planning. The blundering around is a straw man that has no place in the discussion at all. But everything points to Mavra and the red court being independent agents with their own motivations at most influenced but certainly not directed by the outsiders. Cowl however is a different case. He just works too intimately with them and his actions risk empty night so close and do so knowingly that I do not consider him an independent agent at all. For his actions look at how the outsiders would profit.
So the darkhallow was planned even before Grave Peril. Harry is the only one blundering around here.
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As far as Cowl and the darkhollow is concerned, I am working on the notion that it is similar to a near-sighted witness, sans glasses, describing a car crash. He may be mostly right or mostly wrong; but, he is not going to be all wrong or all right. Time may show how accurate the witness was in his description. Just my working opinion.
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I like the theory that Cowl was working to get the Darkhallow power-up so that he could bust through the wards on the Facility at Edinburgh to kill the SC and as many of the resident wizards there to fulfill a deal with the Rampires.
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I'm still unconvinced that mankind CAN be Nemfected.
I think it would be really easy for a nemfected wizard to summon outsiders, as human wizards are the only ones who can.
Now if Cowl were nemfected, wouldn't it make more sense for him to go around nemfecting other wizards to summon more outsiders?
No, Cowl isn't nemfected.
He IS however working with Nemesis.
Thing is like all mortals the Nfection is only deepened by continued choice, a wizard would have to override the will of another almost entirely to Nfect them(similar to the taking of Cat Sith) to a viable degree. But coming from within is possible and imo, this is why Warlocks are executed. They are manifestations of the smallest denomination. This would give a direct correlation between the actions of The Warden and wardens in general. Forgotten their purpose perhaps they have, but stopped doing the job they were intended for they did not.
...Also, can you imagine the shift in Harry if this is true and he finds it out? Morgan would make SOOO much more sense to everybody then.
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I like the theory that Cowl was working to get the Darkhallow power-up so that he could bust through the wards on the Facility at Edinburgh to kill the SC and as many of the resident wizards there to fulfill a deal with the Rampires.
I am pretty sure that selling the Reds on that was a large part of Cowl's goal, with the intention of then hanging them out to dry.
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Neurovore, I have a question for you, sir. How likely do you think it is that Cowl is a member of the Grey Council?
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Neurovore, I have a question for you, sir. How likely do you think it is that Cowl is a member of the Grey Council?
What makes you ask that?
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I am pretty sure that selling the Reds on that was a large part of Cowl's goal, with the intention of then hanging them out to dry.
After which he continues with chopping of his own head....
Why sacrificing your main pawn which was nicely on track weakening tne white council? Why not make it stronger so it could weaken the Sidhe courts as well? For example by providing it with a better ally by removing the current white court leadership and if that fails making room for the Fomor to take their place?
It makes no sense to weaken the red court because their work was not done yet. Cowls ultimate goal is to weaken winter and as long as the reds are on coarse it makes no sense for him to weaken them. Only if they would leave that coarse as the white court was doing doe the situation change.
Weakening everyone and leaving winter with the bulk of its strength does not just change nothing it even makes winters task in guarding the gates easier.
In this context it is easy to see why Mab and Odin wanted the red court gone.
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What makes you ask that?
While I am firmly in the Cowl is Simon camp; I do explore other possibilities. If Cowl was involve in a long plot in which part of it involved taking down vamp courts.Then, we might want to be present as a big one is going down for the count. If that is a possibility; then I don't know who Cowl is.
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Neurovore, I have a question for you, sir.
I am not a "sir", I am a state of mind.
How likely do you think it is that Cowl is a member of the Grey Council?
Negligible. I think the Grey Council will turn out to be the Merlin's sanctioned but deniable task force, which nobody has told Harry because he keeps demonstrating knee-jerk paranoia about working with people he disagrees with.
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Why sacrificing your main pawn which was nicely on track weakening tne white council? Why not make it stronger so it could weaken the Sidhe courts as well? For example by providing it with a better ally by removing the current white court leadership and if that fails making room for the Fomor to take their place?
I don't see Cowl's main objective as weakening the White Council. I see it as weakening all the supernatural powers, Red Court, White Council, Faerie, everyone. The Red King and the LoONs don't exactly look like pushovers (unless like Harry you actually take the Red King's crazy act in Changes, which conveniently goes away the instant it is no longer useful, at face value.) Making the White Council too weak relative to the Red Court just leaves the Reds free to disengage much of their force; the situation where the White Council and the Reds both get beaten down but are still engaged works better.
I also see no reason to think Cowl's long-term goal is to obliterate the leadership of the White Court, rather than that being a fallback; without Harry interfering, a White Court shift of policy towards drawing them into war with the White Council looks much more likely to come of that meeting in the Raith Deeps.
In this context it is easy to see why Mab and Odin wanted the red court gone.
That is providing a answer for a non-existent question, IMO. The Reds made a peace offer, under the terms of the Accords, at the start of Changes, without the intent to keep it. That is grounds enough for Mab to want them exterminated; they are her Accords, and the Reds had PG as a warning already.
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I am not a "sir", I am a state of mind.
Negligible. I think the Grey Council will turn out to be the Merlin's sanctioned but deniable task force, which nobody has told Harry because he keeps demonstrating knee-jerk paranoia about working with people he disagrees with.
Apologies if my use of "sir" is a problem. It's a southern thang. So, you think the Grey Council is similar to Cyclops' use of X-force for black ops.
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Apologies if my use of "sir" is a problem. It's a southern thang.
So long as you;re not making assumptions about my gender, I am good.
So, you think the Grey Council is similar to Cyclops' use of X-force for black ops.
More or less, though I have only a vague handle on the latter.
One of the first things we are told about the Merlin is that he always has three plans for any situation; a main plan, a backup plan, and an ace-in-the-hole.
Changes makes a lot of sense to me on those grounds. The main plan being to talk to the Reds as if they were sincere about the peace offer (that way, if they are, everything is fine, and if they're not, they're the ones who have abused the Accords and they don't have any legitimate grounds for complaint to muddy the waters), the backup plan being the Grey Council, and the ace-in-the-hole being "hey, all you loyal White Council folks, let's isolate Harry Dresden so he will go elsewhere for support and bring big guns into play against the Red Court, with that gift for mayhem we've seen him display over and over."
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Well, if so, then the Grey Council weren't in the know; because McCoy seemed very upset by Harry not making the GC meeting.
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I don't see Cowl's main objective as weakening the White Council. I see it as weakening all the supernatural powers, Red Court, White Council, Faerie, everyone.
But if you weaken everyone you achieve nothing, their relative strengts stay the same. To create real chaos you need to strengthen a somewhat weaker aggressive party and weaken the powers that are so someone sees a chance and goes for it.
The red court were ideal for that.
The Red King and the LoONs don't exactly look like pushovers (unless like Harry you actually take the Red King's crazy act in Changes, which conveniently goes away the instant it is no longer useful, at face value.)
Not compared to the white council but the real target has always been Winter.
Making the White Council too weak relative to the Red Court just leaves the Reds free to disengage much of their force; the situation where the White Council and the Reds both get beaten down but are still engaged works better.
To disengage for what? They went completely crazy at the end of changes. They were the ideal tool for creating even more havoc. They probably would have broken on Winter but if not you just let them make more enemies.
I also see no reason to think Cowl's long-term goal is to obliterate the leadership of the White Court, rather than that being a fallback;
Correct, the red court was not enough against Winter, he needed the white court at their side as well but when that was impossible and Lara seemed to take position against him he went for the second option. He probably tried to encourage the Fomor to take a more active role as well.
without Harry interfering, a White Court shift of policy towards drawing them into war with the White Council looks much more likely to come of that meeting in the Raith Deeps.
That is providing a answer for a non-existent question, IMO. The Reds made a peace offer, under the terms of the Accords, at the start of Changes, without the intent to keep it. That is grounds enough for Mab to want them exterminated; they are her Accords, and the Reds had PG as a warning already.
So why did Odin and Uriel join Mab? The white council seems in some way integrated in the defence against the outsiders. Chicken Itza was not just about Harry, it was the other powers who saw an opportunity to do something about the red court. The outsiders need to have at least one active pawn at this side of the gate. Cowl shows all the symptoms. He manipulates and uses other powers to weaken the defense of reality.
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Well, if so, then the Grey Council weren't in the know; because McCoy seemed very upset by Harry not making the GC meeting.
"Seemed" is the appropriate word. I have no problem with Eb helping string Harry along there.
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But if you weaken everyone you achieve nothing, their relative strengts stay the same. To create real chaos you need to strengthen a somewhat weaker aggressive party and weaken the powers that are so someone sees a chance and goes for it.
OK, I was unclear there. I reckon Cowl is all about weakening everyone else in order to make life easier for the Outsiders.
The rest of what you are saying, I say both yes and no to. In that I think the method Cowl is using to get everyone beaten down includes sometimes throwing balances off (as between the White Council's hammering in DB and the Red Court's in PG) but mostly dragging people into wars that benefit neither side (as in GP, and as attempted in WN).
Not compared to the white council but the real target has always been Winter.
I don't agree with you there. Winter being the ones who are up front guarding the Outer Gates at the moment makes them a necessary target, but far from the only important one.
To disengage for what? They went completely crazy at the end of changes.
I don't agree with you there either. Harry finds the notion that evil is chaotic and crazy and self-destructive very comforting, and he projects it all over the place, which leaves him a big blindspot to evil that is actually organised and out-thinking him but passes itself off as chaotic etc. (Like the Joker almost all the way through Dark Knight.)
The Red Court isn't crazy, by all the evidence up to and including Changes. It is deeply divided over whether war with the White Council in the current timeframe is a good idea. Harry is looking at the outcomes of a shifting political balance between those in the Red Court who think that outside sorcerous aid can make the war winnable to them at this point (Arianna) and those who see that they can't win the war at this point (Ortega in DM, the Red King in Changes), and thinks he's seeing one commander who is loopy. The Red King rather neatly plays Harry to get rid of Arianna.
He probably tried to encourage the Fomor to take a more active role as well.
I strongly suspect the death of the Red Court will turn out very much a net loss for the defense of reality. I like the notion (not originally mine) that Chichen Itza is such a nexus of power because, like Demonreach, there is something really scary buried under there, and I would not be at all surprised if reconstituting the Red Court from the survivors (the ones in the Erlking's basement, and, if I am right, Ortega) is a vital part of the final battle.
So why did Odin and Uriel join Mab?
I've analysed that at some length, and I think my argument still stands; it's in the reference collection at http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,40670.0.html
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So long as you;re not making assumptions about my gender, I am good.
More or less, though I have only a vague handle on the latter.
One of the first things we are told about the Merlin is that he always has three plans for any situation; a main plan, a backup plan, and an ace-in-the-hole.
Changes makes a lot of sense to me on those grounds. The main plan being to talk to the Reds as if they were sincere about the peace offer (that way, if they are, everything is fine, and if they're not, they're the ones who have abused the Accords and they don't have any legitimate grounds for complaint to muddy the waters), the backup plan being the Grey Council, and the ace-in-the-hole being "hey, all you loyal White Council folks, let's isolate Harry Dresden so he will go elsewhere for support and bring big guns into play against the Red Court, with that gift for mayhem we've seen him display over and over."
I agree with a slight tweak. I think the main plan was to let the peace talk proceed in case it was on the level. The back-up plan was to wait for the RC to show their hand and then counter-strike hard (as evidenced by Merlin's talk with Harry in the Worry Room). The ace-in-the-hole was the Grey Council taking the Red Court by surprise and doing what needs to be done outside the "rules of the council."
I think McCoy was trying to get Harry ready for the Merlin's counterstrike by getting him to the specific meeting point. Furthermore, I don't think Merlin finds Harry easy to understand, predict, or direct. He may have primed him to do something and had the Grey Council on stand-by to help, stop, or clean up after Harry.
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OK, I was unclear there. I reckon Cowl is all about weakening everyone else in order to make life easier for the Outsiders.
The rest of what you are saying, I say both yes and no to. In that I think the method Cowl is using to get everyone beaten down includes sometimes throwing balances off (as between the White Council's hammering in DB and the Red Court's in PG) but mostly dragging people into wars that benefit neither side (as in GP, and as attempted in WN).
I don't agree with you there. Winter being the ones who are up front guarding the Outer Gates at the moment makes them a necessary target, but far from the only important one.
I don't agree with you there either. Harry finds the notion that evil is chaotic and crazy and self-destructive very comforting, and he projects it all over the place, which leaves him a big blindspot to evil that is actually organised and out-thinking him but passes itself off as chaotic etc. (Like the Joker almost all the way through Dark Knight.)
The Red Court isn't crazy, by all the evidence up to and including Changes. It is deeply divided over whether war with the White Council in the current timeframe is a good idea. Harry is looking at the outcomes of a shifting political balance between those in the Red Court who think that outside sorcerous aid can make the war winnable to them at this point (Arianna) and those who see that they can't win the war at this point (Ortega in DM, the Red King in Changes), and thinks he's seeing one commander who is loopy. The Red King rather neatly plays Harry to get rid of Arianna.
I strongly suspect the death of the Red Court will turn out very much a net loss for the defense of reality. I like the notion (not originally mine) that Chichen Itza is such a nexus of power because, like Demonreach, there is something really scary buried under there, and I would not be at all surprised if reconstituting the Red Court from the survivors (the ones in the Erlking's basement, and, if I am right, Ortega) is a vital part of the final battle.
I've analysed that at some length, and I think my argument still stands; it's in the reference collection at http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,40670.0.html
I remember we had this discussion before but not in that thread.
One problem I have with this line of reasoning is that if you weaken everyone it basicaly lets the bulk of winters forces at the gates intact and no tools left to hit them with. As soon as everyone is weakened enough the turmoil will stop. It is only going on because several players see chances to improve their positions. It is not a working strategy because we can assume the outsiders have only a relative small number of real agents at this side of the gates.
Not all evil is necessarily crazy but some are. And crazy does not mean stupid either. It is just that the outsiders had the red court nicely on track and that the red king was also planning to defeat the council at that moment. There was no reason for them to end the red court because they would spend their energy doing what the outsiders wanted anyway.
I see all the powers working together against the red court as a sign how useful the red court had become for the outsiders. Mab's involvement may have had other reasons as well but all those powers together point only to one thing.
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Could I ask you to either quote inline or cut the bits you're not responding to ? Seeing a whole post of mine with several different points block-quoted and responded to like that makes it a ways from clear which bit of yours is responding to which of mine.
One problem I have with this line of reasoning is that if you weaken everyone it basicaly lets the bulk of winters forces at the gates intact and no tools left to hit them with.
Why would anyone need to hit them directly when it is clearly possible to work around them? Regardless of how Nemesis works, summoning the Walkers to Earth does not seem to be something they automatically block.
As soon as everyone is weakened enough the turmoil will stop. It is only going on because several players see chances to improve their positions.
And so long as no one party lets too much of a lead, the sort of people stupid enough to feel they have to leap at the prospect of immediate gain will keep doing so even when they are so beaten down they can barely crawl.
It is not a working strategy because we can assume the outsiders have only a relative small number of real agents at this side of the gates.
I'm not seeing why we can, or whether number matters near so much as power there.
It is just that the outsiders had the red court nicely on track and that the red king was also planning to defeat the council at that moment. There was no reason for them to end the red court because they would spend their energy doing what the outsiders wanted anyway.
I see no reason to assume the Red Court are doing what the Outsiders want, because the war with the White Council is very much against the Red Court's interest and the more sensible members of the Red Court are continually doing their best to stop it.
I firmly believe there is no way the Red Court can have defeated the White Council, except possibly in the narrow window between DB and PG, and furthermore, that what Changes illustrates is that the White Council can, given the decision to do so, destroy the Red Court in a matter of days.
Mab's involvement may have had other reasons as well but all those powers together point only to one thing.
Indeed; the chance to get Harry to do some much-needed growing up.
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Why would anyone need to hit them directly when it is clearly possible to work around them? Regardless of how Nemesis works, summoning the Walkers to Earth does not seem to be something they automatically block.
Because I think the gates have to be broken to get the bulk of the outsiders here and that means defeating the bulk of winter. Nemesis influences players either by direct infection or by manipulation and playing on their nature but at the end they need to do something big to get through. Something apocalyptic that takes three books.
And so long as no one party lets too much of a lead, the sort of people stupid enough to feel they have to leap at the prospect of immediate gain will keep doing so even when they are so beaten down they can barely crawl.
Not enough. If everyone is equally beaten down that will stop for a while or become meaningless. The big powers will still be untouched however and the bulk of winters troops as well.
I'm not seeing why we can, or whether number matters near so much as power there.
Not number of mooks, they probably have quite a few cults with mooks, but agents that really matter at least at Cowl’s level.
I see no reason to assume the Red Court are doing what the Outsiders want, because the war with the White Council is very much against the Red Court's interest and the more sensible members of the Red Court are continually doing their best to stop it.
They lost. And I am not so sure they even tried that hard. I think you take Duke Ortegas words far too seriously. And also they did exactly what the outsiders wanted from them by waging war with the white council and continuously escalating it.
I firmly believe there is no way the Red Court can have defeated the White Council, except possibly in the narrow window between DB and PG, and furthermore, that what Changes illustrates is that the White Council can, given the decision to do so, destroy the Red Court in a matter of days.
I do not think that is true at least not the white council on its own. and if it were true it would be reason for Cowl to strengthen the red court and not to weaken it.
And changes was a unique opportunity, it illustrates both strengths and weaknesses of the red court. It also shows a lot of arrogance.
Indeed; the chance to get Harry to do some much-needed growing up.
Doubtless big on Uriels agenda but was that enough to get the whole coalition there?
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Because I think the gates have to be broken to get the bulk of the outsiders here and that means defeating the bulk of winter. Nemesis influences players either by direct infection or by manipulation and playing on their nature but at the end they need to do something big to get through. Something apocalyptic that takes three books.
I genuinely do not think we are going to get one overall apocalyptic thread, rather than three separate events, in the BAT.
Not enough. If everyone is equally beaten down that will stop for a while or become meaningless.
You've said that before, and I still disagree. How beaten down do you think people would need to be to stop? In the absence of the events of Changes, for example, do you have difficulty believing in the last surviving White Council wizard and the last surviving Red Court vampire being more interested in killing each other than in stopping to take a breath and figure out what else is going on?
The big powers will still be untouched however and the bulk of winters troops as well.
Which big powers? Do you think that Cowl and allies have been doing things offstage to weaken entities like Ferrovax?
They lost. And I am not so sure they even tried that hard. I think you take Duke Ortegas words far too seriously.
I take them seriously because he backs them with his actions. He puts his own life on the line in an attempt to stop the war.
And also they did exactly what the outsiders wanted from them by waging war with the white council and continuously escalating it.
This feels like there's circular logic in here somewhere. Why do you think that "waging war and continually escalating it" rather than "waging war and losing as much as they win" is what the Outsiders want here? The latter is a much better fit with what actually happens prior to Changes.
Doubtless big on Uriels agenda but was that enough to get the whole coalition there?
I would argue yes, because, as I argued in the post I linked you to a bit ago, I think that Harry is nearly unique in the DV, as part of a joint plan involving Uriel, Mab and Odin (and after SG I am willing to put Hades in their camp also) that has been running since well before he was born, with the objective of giving him access to pretty much every supernatural power source in the DV, in order to back up his near-unique ability against Outsiders. The Red Court are at best a bunch of enemy foot soldiers; Harry is the Manhattan Project. He's clearly much more important to their plans, and the end of GS is such a perfect manipulation to put him where he will serve Uriel and Mab's interests both, I do not believe that is an accident.
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I genuinely do not think we are going to get one overall apocalyptic thread, rather than three separate events, in the BAT.
We don't know but I suspect three apocalypses somewhat connected and all leading to the final one with the outsiders.
You've said that before, and I still disagree. How beaten down do you think people would need to be to stop? In the absence of the events of Changes, for example, do you have difficulty believing in the last surviving White Council wizard and the last surviving Red Court vampire being more interested in killing each other than in stopping to take a breath and figure out what else is going on?
You only do that when you are living close to each other and are locked in an a fight for survival.
In Dead Beat the white council does not even know where the reds are based beyond somewhere in latin america. For the red court this was not, until the final act of changes, an existential fight for survival. The real Mayan have not even been into the picture before Changes. War caused some turmoil in the red court but mainly because it removed some middle management and lower placed vampires saw it as an opportunity to climb the pyramid. It looks like the red court was somewhat frustrated that their hunt for the white council was not successfull and finally decided to bring in the big guns.
In that context the most logical thing for the red court to do when beaten significantly is to go back to their liars, lick their wounds and wait for better times. Both sides will somewhat recover and Winter can in the meantime concentrate on its real problems, the outsiders do not win in that scenario.
That only changes if the outsiders have a really big influence on the reds, not just a little push in a direction compatible with their nature. And that would be a very good reason to get rid of them.
Which big powers? Do you think that Cowl and allies have been doing things offstage to weaken entities like Ferrovax?
Hades, Mab, the mothers. They have not been really touched by the outsiders schemes yet and that should happen in or just before the bat. For that the outsiders need really big tools, the red court would not be enough. I think they tried to create a fomor-red court coalition against winter. The fomor have a lot of grudges against winter so that helps the outsiders.
I take them seriously because he backs them with his actions. He puts his own life on the line in an attempt to stop the war.
It seems that way. He is full of shit and when he loses the duel he cheats again. Ortega is a lying manipulator on the level with Nicodemus in some respects.
This feels like there's circular logic in here somewhere. Why do you think that "waging war and continually escalating it" rather than "waging war and losing as much as they win" is what the Outsiders want here? The latter is a much better fit with what actually happens prior to Changes.
Winter guards the gates and so must be the ultimate target. What the outsiders wanted is that the reds were so pulled into the war with first the white council and then winter that there was no way back for them. That is why they were pushed to break the accords. In that sense they were highly successful because the reds earned Lea and Mabs enmity and sooner or later a full scale war with winter.
They did not need to weaken the reds because the reds were not strong enough for that task. But with the Fomor maybe.
I would argue yes, because, as I argued in the post I linked you to a bit ago, I think that Harry is nearly unique in the DV, as part of a joint plan involving Uriel, Mab and Odin (and after SG I am willing to put Hades in their camp also) that has been running since well before he was born, with the objective of giving him access to pretty much every supernatural power source in the DV, in order to back up his near-unique ability against Outsiders. The Red Court are at best a bunch of enemy foot soldiers; Harry is the Manhattan Project. He's clearly much more important to their plans, and the end of GS is such a perfect manipulation to put him where he will serve Uriel and Mab's interests both, I do not believe that is an accident.
Harry has the possibility to become that unique person but he was not the only one. But he becomes more and more important in every book. So yes educating Harry was an important motive but I do not think that all those powers would have encouraged Harry in his course to Chichen Itza if the reds were a useful or necessery part of the current structure. They all wanted the red court gone every one including Uriel.
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Idk so much that it's more than one threat, as that threat is going to manifest different ways of trying to break reality. for instance... 3 BAT's and 3 walkers 'touching'. Metaphor for a trilogy lol?
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3 different battlefronts. One demon, one Fae, and one vamp.
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That's the obvious points of the BAT...
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I like being Mr. Obvious. I am as subtle as a bull in a china shop. Or, Harry in a burning building.
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We don't know but I suspect three apocalypses somewhat connected and all leading to the final one with the outsiders.
Nah, I think the outsiders will be the first one, the Fallen the second smaller one, and the third one will be Scouring of the Shire-scale White Court stuff.
You only do that when you are living close to each other and are locked in an a fight for survival.
Harry seems an easy sell on believing this is the case with the Red Court between GP and Changes, though.
For the red court this was not, until the final act of changes, an existential fight for survival. The real Mayan have not even been into the picture before Changes.
Harry not seeing them does not mean they weren't involved.
Do you think that if a minor Red Court functionary tried starting a war with the White Council without approval from the higher levels, the Red Court would hesitate to disown and sacrifice them ?
In that context the most logical thing for the red court to do when beaten significantly is to go back to their liars, lick their wounds and wait for better times. Both sides will somewhat recover and Winter can in the meantime concentrate on its real problems, the outsiders do not win in that scenario.
Your notion of Winter as more significant than anyone else in keeping the Outsiders out is not something I agree with; iirc one of the Mothers says that is only at this point in time and has not always been the case, which strongly suggests they are not the only entities capable of fulfilling that role.
That only changes if the outsiders have a really big influence on the reds, not just a little push in a direction compatible with their nature.
How big a push do you think pushing them into a war they can't possibly win is ?
Hades, Mab, the mothers. They have not been really touched by the outsiders schemes yet and that should happen in or just before the bat.
Have you some reason of ruling out us finding out that they have actually been seriously touched by those schemes ?
Think of how much Harry knows about now that was ongoing at the time of SF but that he had no idea about then. Are we really in a position to rule out there being as much or more currently going on that he is still blithely unaware of ? This is a person who has been deliberately avoiding the White Council as much as he possibly can, so is set up to be less informed about the supernatural world than most of his peers. (Which makes sense at a meta-level for JB to pace us learning about stuff along with Harry.)
It seems that way. He is full of shit and when he loses the duel he cheats again. Ortega is a lying manipulator on the level with Nicodemus in some respects.
When you say "again" there, what are you referring to as him having cheated before ?
I see no reason to think Ortega lies. I think that when he is put on the hot seat, he is willing to go a very long way to stop this pointless war. Including cheating in a duel, which he knows full well will bring the full weight of the Accords down on him and probably get him killed. The guy is willing to sacrifice his own life that way in order to kill Harry and stop the war. That does not look like a liar to me, it looks like someone dedicated and self-sacrificing for the interests of his people.
Harry has the possibility to become that unique person but he was not the only one. But he becomes more and more important in every book.
I'll say. he has soulfire (which Nicodemus very nicely set up by exposing him to hellfire, which is probably why the guy thinks he has a chance of ending up a saint), he has the Winter mantle, he is a well-trained wizard, he's been exposed to non-negative uses of necromancy. Harry was not the only potential starborn at the beginning, but he is a major useful piece now.
I do not think that all those powers would have encouraged Harry in his course to Chichen Itza if the reds were a useful or necessery part of the current structure. They all wanted the red court gone every one including Uriel.
You give the Reds far more importance here than I do.
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Well, one important detail about the RCV is that they were possibly the largest vamp court and maybe had the easiest and fastest way of converting mortals into supernatural creatures. Even a half-turned vamp is fairly powerful andwas able to give Denerians some trouble. That made them a big threat to mortals.
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Nah, I think the outsiders will be the first one, the Fallen the second smaller one, and the third one will be Scouring of the Shire-scale White Court stuff.
Possible I suppose. Not written yet.
Harry seems an easy sell on believing this is the case with the Red Court between GP and Changes, though.
For the white council, not for the red court. How can it be when the council does not even know were they came from?
Harry not seeing them does not mean they weren't involved.
They were probably involved but I do not think they were personally involved most of the time and Harry was involved in the war. He was relatively close to Lucio and collected trophy's with Ramirez. It is highly suspicious that he knew so little about the red courts command structure. It suggests the white council knew very little which was confirmed when Lucio told Harry they were based "Somewhere in Latin America"
Do you think that if a minor Red Court functionary tried starting a war with the White Council without approval from the higher levels, the Red Court would hesitate to disown and sacrifice them ?
Bianca did in a sense. It depends what suited them but that was not the point. For the lower levels the war offers chances for pyramid climbing so they can form support for a war. Support that only needs a leader. There will be pressure for war from the bottom up.
Your notion of Winter as more significant than anyone else in keeping the Outsiders out is not something I agree with; iirc one of the Mothers says that is only at this point in time and has not always been the case, which strongly suggests they are not the only entities capable of fulfilling that role.
But now it is winter and if the norse gods had that position before they did not really stop, they support winter. Mab took that position because she is the strongest which is also the reaso why she owns the accords. She is set up by Jim as the one to beat.
How big a push do you think pushing them into a war they can't possibly win is ?
That was a big success for the outsiders. But if they can not win that war there is no sense in weakening them, only in encouraging them by strengthening them. Keep them at war as long as possible.
Have you some reason of ruling out us finding out that they have actually been seriously touched by those schemes?
Mab was somewhat touched but not fundamentally. I do not think the rest is. That probably will happen later though.
Think of how much Harry knows about now that was ongoing at the time of SF but that he had no idea about then. Are we really in a position to rule out there being as much or more currently going on that he is still blithely unaware of ? This is a person who has been deliberately avoiding the White Council as much as he possibly can, so is set up to be less informed about the supernatural world than most of his peers. (Which makes sense at a meta-level for JB to pace us learning about stuff along with Harry.)
When you say "again" there, what are you referring to as him having cheated before ?
Harry was warned by both Thomas and Shiro that Ortega was an act meant to destabalize him. You can stop seeking meaning in his words except for the designed impact on Harry.
It worked to well for that to be anything else.
I see no reason to think Ortega lies. I think that when he is put on the hot seat, he is willing to go a very long way to stop this pointless war. Including cheating in a duel, which he knows full well will bring the full weight of the Accords down on him and probably get him killed. The guy is willing to sacrifice his own life that way in order to kill Harry and stop the war. That does not look like a liar to me, it looks like someone dedicated and self-sacrificing for the interests of his people.
He got you as well as he nearly got Harry. I do not think he thought he could lose.
I'll say. he has soulfire (which Nicodemus very nicely set up by exposing him to hellfire, which is probably why the guy thinks he has a chance of ending up a saint),
Do you want to take his words seriously as well?
he has the Winter mantle, he is a well-trained wizard, he's been exposed to non-negative uses of necromancy. Harry was not the only potential starborn at the beginning, but he is a major useful piece now.
He gets more and more usefull but not enough to sacrifice a whole supernatural group if they are not a liability for other reasons.
You give the Reds far more importance here than I do.
Most prominent outsider tool is not that important. They are probably just the first, others are being influenced right now. I think they were supposed to join up with the Fomor for an even bigger war, that was prevented in Changes.
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Well, one important detail about the RCV is that they were possibly the largest vamp court and maybe had the easiest and fastest way of converting mortals into supernatural creatures.
We don't know this at all, and we have circumstantial evidence pointing very much in the opposite direction.
For one thing, we know from WoJ that the White Council first became aware of the Red Court about the time Europeans were exploring the Americas. Which means that if the Reds were building their forces towards being able to take on the White Council, they were very slow about doing so. Certainly slower than the Council could; Luccio mentions in Changes that by that point the Council had twice the strength in the field they had before the losses of DB, and that took them five years.
For another, possibly the most important datapoint about supernatural predators in the DV is one that Harry is by definition incapable of realising. The bit early on in DB where Harry explains to Butters about the numbers of human beings who go missing. Where he is quoting real-world numbers exactly.
The DV has organised crime. The DV has abusive families and runaway children. We've seen these in the text. We have no reason to believe that these and other reasons why people disappear are any different as facts of the DV than they are in RL.
Which means that the actual impact of supernatural predation on humans in the DV is statistically negligible. There's hardly any of it.
We've seen one human partially transformed, and that took at least one Red Court noble and possibly a whole houseful of other Red Court to achieve.
The other major piece of evidence here, fwiw, is that Harry entirely understands the dangers of exponential growth among enemies, and explains it quite cogently to Murphy earlyish in BR when talking about the Black Court. But neither there nor anywhere else does anyone apply or suggest applying that model to the Red Court. To my mind, that strongly suggests that it does not in fact apply.
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It suggests the white council knew very little which was confirmed when Lucio told Harry they were based "Somewhere in Latin America"
And you believe that too ? Chichen Itza is a real place, and not an obscure one. It's a significant historic site and a huge tourist destination. It's about as plausible that the Council don't know its significance to the Red Court as it would be if they were hanging out at Stonehenge.
As for the rest of the post, at this point I feel like you and I are just arguing assertions back and forth at one another, and your assessment of when characters are reliable sources and when not does not make over much sense to me, so I see no particular benefit to continuing this debate; would certainly be on for talking more as to how that should be judged generally, but that probably warrants a different thread.
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I was thinking about one of the battle descriptions where 20 vamps were getting dropped per warden or wizard lost and the WC still was over-run. At Chicken Pizza, I thought there were thousands more. While I agree with you the WC grow rapidly in numbers; how does average power per person equate with the power per person of those lost? But, you are right that we didn't have an on-screen conversion. I might be working on some of the more traditional ideas of the process. One or two nips and sips. WCV seems to be limited by lack of offspring produced and BCV seem to have self-imposed and literature-induced limitations on their numbers.