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The Dresden Files => DF Spoilers => Topic started by: wardenferry419 on November 07, 2017, 11:25:50 PM

Title: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: wardenferry419 on November 07, 2017, 11:25:50 PM
Why did Elaine chose this moment to reveal herself?
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: RobReece on November 08, 2017, 12:40:56 AM
she had no choice, nem-fected Aurora chose her as emissary, otherwise she could still be hiding for all we know...
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: wardenferry419 on November 08, 2017, 09:17:10 AM
At the beginning, Elaine tells Harry that her debt is with Titania. Her goal as emissary is to find the killer and prove that Winter did it. Later, she says her debt ended with Aurora. Can we really believe Elaine and what she says?
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Arjan on November 08, 2017, 01:15:18 PM
At the beginning, Elaine tells Harry that her debt is with Titania. Her goal as emissary is to find the killer and prove that Winter did it. Later, she says her debt ended with Aurora. Can we really believe Elaine and what she says?
Well after that her task as emissary was over. She might think that that closed the deals but I am not that optimistic.

She probably does not know herself exactly. That is the problem with dealing with the Sidhe, they know exactly who owes what to who.

It is probably Sarissa who holds the remainer of that debt now and she will act on it exactly when it inconveniences both Harry and Elaine most.

Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Talby16 on November 08, 2017, 02:05:43 PM
Do Aurora's main retainers bear any remaining ill will towards Harry for the death of Aurora? Not likely after all this time, but I thought I would throw it out there.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Arjan on November 08, 2017, 04:03:18 PM
Do Aurora's main retainers bear any remaining ill will towards Harry for the death of Aurora? Not likely after all this time, but I thought I would throw it out there.
Not likely and all Titania's anger seemed to be directed at Harry.

The main question is what the remaining debt is if any and who has it.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Rasins on November 08, 2017, 05:52:09 PM
I'd bet that her debt, if there really was any, has been paid off.  The Summer Lady is the one who determines it. 

Now, it's possible that Elaine is wrong about the debt being paid in full, but it would seem to be a sort of balance if she still owes, the same way Harry still owes.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: wardenferry419 on November 16, 2017, 02:34:41 AM
I really think that Titania is holding that debt back for a time that she can hurt Harry with it.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh on November 16, 2017, 02:38:40 AM
Well after that her task as emissary was over. She might think that that closed the deals but I am not that optimistic.
She probably does not know herself exactly. That is the problem with dealing with the Sidhe, they know exactly who owes what to who.

I am sure she knows exactly what she is doing there, and is spinning it in whatever makes Harry most usefully trust her.  Last we saw of her, she is nicely hooked up with the Paranet if she needs a power base.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: wardenferry419 on November 18, 2017, 08:01:32 PM
She does seem to be piggy-back off Harry's resources.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Arjan on November 18, 2017, 09:17:31 PM
I am sure she knows exactly what she is doing there, and is spinning it in whatever makes Harry most usefully trust her.  Last we saw of her, she is nicely hooked up with the Paranet if she needs a power base.
Assuming people know what they are doing is usually wrong and leads to implausible conspiracy theories. Assuming they are blundering idiots usually explains reality far better.  ;D
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: wardenferry419 on November 18, 2017, 09:38:26 PM
In the real world, yes that is true. But, the fictional is more fun than that.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Arjan on November 18, 2017, 10:18:36 PM
In the real world, yes that is true. But, the fictional is more fun than that.
You need to bring some reality in the fantasy world to improve the real feeling of the world otherwise the suspension of disbelieve becomes too hard.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh on November 19, 2017, 02:53:34 AM
Assuming people know what they are doing is usually wrong and leads to implausible conspiracy theories. Assuming they are blundering idiots usually explains reality far better.  ;D

How smart do you reckon high-end wizards have to be, then ?

I tend to go by rule of thumb comparing the amount of time comparing wizards' experience with magic with the sort of investment of smarts it takes to get to a similar position working in science, that being the field I know well, and Thomas does compare Harry's skill level in "Backup" to someone with multiple PhDs iirc.  And that's before you consider adding in literal centuries of experience, or entities that are described as, and depicted consistently with, superhuman in some extents.

(Besides, everyone knows wizards rely on INT as their primary ability score.)
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Arjan on November 19, 2017, 06:36:17 AM
How smart do you reckon high-end wizards have to be, then ?

I tend to go by rule of thumb comparing the amount of time comparing wizards' experience with magic with the sort of investment of smarts it takes to get to a similar position working in science, that being the field I know well, and Thomas does compare Harry's skill level in "Backup" to someone with multiple PhDs iirc.  And that's before you consider adding in literal centuries of experience,
Experience means learning from your mistakes, sometimes your own stupidity. We are watcheng Harry and Elaine doing exactly that. In matters outside wizardry Karen as a vanilla mortal is more experienced than Harry. And not less intelligent.
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or entities that are described as, and depicted consistently with, superhuman in some extents.

(Besides, everyone knows wizards rely on INT as their primary ability score.)
How stupid can Harry be? Admittedly Elaine is more intelligent than Harry but her experience with the real world is in Summer Knight probably rather limitted and what she knows was for a large part controlled by Justin and a bunch of Sidhe. Ignorance is not the same as stupidity but it can look quite similar sometimes.

Harry and Elaine were not that old at Summer Knight so extra wizard experience is not a factor, we can assume normal human behaviour so what causes stupid behaviour in intelligent people?

Overspecialization can be a factor. People are not always that smart outside their field because it takes most of their brainpower to be sometimes extremely good in what they do.

Wishfull thinking is another one. Sometimes information is so unwelcome that you ignore it or go for the most convenient option for yourself on the short term. It is related to short term self interest which can lead to stupid rationalizations that are really believed by even intelligent people. I think Elaine fell victim for that one. Easily if Aurora was her main source of information.

Addiction can lead to stupid decisions and intelligent people can rationalize them, those rationalizations sound stupid to not addicted people.

Youthfull indoctrination can lead to stupidly holding irrational beliefs at a later age which can influence everything.

Extreme success can lead to overconfidence especially if you have power because nobody wants to disagree with you.

All above factors and more can make even intelligent people slip into intellecual laziness sometimes especially if they get older.

If they get older they rely more on experience and less on thinking things over as well which works quite well most of the time but can lead to stupidity if circumstances change.

And sometimes you are just tired, emotionally exited or overstressed. Everyone can make a stupid decision sometimes especially under pressure. Stupid people make them all the time.




Intelligence is often a protection against stupid or seemingly stupid decisions but not always.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_fusion

We were studying chemistry at Leiden University at the time and it seemed wishful thinking to us but it went on for a long time even when it was utterly discredited in the rest of the scientific world. All people involved were intelligent people, most of the time. I was fascinated by it not as science but because how it could go on for such a long time publication after publication. Even a PhD is not always a protection against stupidity.


Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: wardenferry419 on November 19, 2017, 07:55:11 PM
I work in customer service and the level of stupidity I deal with daily is staggering. I am often surprised that some of our customers haven't drown themselves while drinking a glass of water.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Arjan on November 19, 2017, 10:04:29 PM
I work in customer service and the level of stupidity I deal with daily is staggering. I am often surprised that some of our customers haven't drown themselves while drinking a glass of water.
Most of them are probably just stupid but some of them are relatively intelligent in what they do for a living, they just don't want to think too much about your product, it should just work. I have met intelligent people who just can not do math. You try to explain and they loose their temper, guess the answer without following the steps and so on..

I think someone just told them early on that it was too complicated for them and they never put the effort and the patience into it. For some things you need to think in a certain way.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: wardenferry419 on November 19, 2017, 10:26:22 PM
Some behavior I can chalk up to general indifference... but, pulling a door handle at 8:45am when the door sign ( which has not changed in over 10 years) says we open at 9:30 and the neon CLOSED light is on. Or thinking half off of 4.99 is $2. And, these are people that come to the store at least once a week.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: jonas on November 19, 2017, 10:30:53 PM
Most of them are probably just stupid but some of them are relatively intelligent in what they do for a living, they just don't want to think too much about your product, it should just work. I have met intelligent people who just can not do math. You try to explain and they loose their temper, guess the answer without following the steps and so on..

I think someone just told them early on that it was too complicated for them and they never put the effort and the patience into it. For some things you need to think in a certain way.
B to the mutha F'n I.N.G.O!
It's cool to have barriers, it's not cool not to understand that you have said barriers or that others have their own.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Arjan on November 19, 2017, 10:35:24 PM
Some behavior I can chalk up to general indifference... but, pulling a door handle at 8:45am when the door sign ( which has not changed in over 10 years) says we open at 9:30 and the neon CLOSED light is on. Or thinking half off of 4.99 is $2. And, these are people that come to the store at least once a week.
Ah the wishfull thinking fallacy. They just want the shop to be open because they took some time getting there and told themself the shop was open before they started their journey. Admitting the shop is closed means admitting their effort was for nothing and maybe even admitting some stupidity. Not losing face is more important than logical thinking anyway.

And of course 5/2=2 if you have to pay for something otherwise it is 3. Real stupidity is when it works against you. :-)
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Arjan on November 19, 2017, 10:39:15 PM
B to the mutha F'n I.N.G.O!
I believe I have some barriere here.
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It's cool to have barriers, it's not cool not to understand that you have said barriers or that others have their own.
It can be easier to see other peoples barriers than your own.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: forumghost on November 19, 2017, 11:09:18 PM
Some behavior I can chalk up to general indifference... but, pulling a door handle at 8:45am when the door sign ( which has not changed in over 10 years) says we open at 9:30 and the neon CLOSED light is on. Or thinking half off of 4.99 is $2. And, these are people that come to the store at least once a week.

Not that bad. I've known people to come down to my work before the store opens, come in and flip the sign, and sit down expecting to be served 30 min early because "We're here so you have to be open now".

Although that's more a case of them being Assholes then idiots
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: wardenferry419 on November 19, 2017, 11:27:18 PM
Ah the wishfull thinking fallacy. They just want the shop to be open because they took some time getting there and told themself the shop was open before they started their journey. Admitting the shop is closed means admitting their effort was for nothing and maybe even admitting some stupidity. Not losing face is more important than logical thinking anyway.

And of course 5/2=2 if you have to pay for something otherwise it is 3. Real stupidity is when it works against you. :-)
I have to disagree with you here. I expect to lose face and am prepared to lose face when I act in an incorrect or idiotic manner. I welcome more logic in my life. There is either shortage of accountability or I am getting old. LOL
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: jonas on November 19, 2017, 11:43:29 PM
I believe I have some barriere here.It can be easier to see other peoples barriers than your own.
Sure, but easy to remember everybody has some. Finding things is so much easier if you assume there's something to find... or at least don't remain in blissful ignorance to it.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Arjan on November 20, 2017, 04:48:22 AM
I have to disagree with you here. I expect to lose face and am prepared to lose face when I act in an incorrect or idiotic manner. I welcome more logic in my life. There is either shortage of accountability or I am getting old. LOL
Only if you admit to yourself and others you are acting in a idiotic manner. The trick is to act so sincere and convincingly that the other party thinks he is wrong. It helps if you believe it yourself so really convincing lying starts with lying to yourself.

So never admit you did something wrong even if all evidence stacks against you.

It is related to what a colleague once said to me at work decades ago when I was young and innocent. Never admit you do not know something or can not do something, just try to figure it out on the fly. I assime it was a joke but I am not quite sure.

It actually has a sound evolutionary basis. It is not about being right but about being put in the right. That is why power can let you get away with all sorts of stupid statements and reality won’t always catch up with you. Even worse repeating stupidity shows loyalty. Sometimes stupidity is not about logic but about power. If you sincerely believe in someone elses stupidity you show great loyalty.

Or more generally how will stupidity help someone to survive and prosper in the short term? Even at the cost of everyone else, science, logic, mental health and survival of the human species in the long run.

Even worse in a magical universe when the powerful can make their stupidity true.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: jonas on November 20, 2017, 06:42:44 AM
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Stupid is as stupid does.
::)
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Arjan on November 20, 2017, 08:14:22 AM
::)
That way you do not have to think about why stupidity persists even with intelligent people.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: wardenferry419 on November 20, 2017, 10:57:32 AM
Only if you admit to yourself and others you are acting in a idiotic manner. The trick is to act so sincere and convincingly that the other party thinks he is wrong. It helps if you believe it yourself so really convincing lying starts with lying to yourself.

So never admit you did something wrong even if all evidence stacks against you.

It is related to what a colleague once said to me at work decades ago when I was young and innocent. Never admit you do not know something or can not do something, just try to figure it out on the fly. I assime it was a joke but I am not quite sure.

It actually has a sound evolutionary basis. It is not about being right but about being put in the right. That is why power can let you get away with all sorts of stupid statements and reality won’t always catch up with you. Even worse repeating stupidity shows loyalty. Sometimes stupidity is not about logic but about power. If you sincerely believe in someone elses stupidity you show great loyalty.

Or more generally how will stupidity help someone to survive and prosper in the short term? Even at the cost of everyone else, science, logic, mental health and survival of the human species in the long run.

Even worse in a magical universe when the powerful can make their stupidity true.
I can't tell if you are pulling my leg or making my cynicism seem mild.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Arjan on November 20, 2017, 02:01:16 PM
I can't tell if you are pulling my leg or making my cynicism seem mild.
Just from random search:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/monique-caissie/boss-admit-wrong_b_10633974.html

Never apologise, it only makes you unhappy:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/people-who-never-apologize-are-probably-happier-than-you-12584567/

These are all mechanisms that happen in real life. How often you think it happens is an indication of your level of cynisism.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Kindler on November 20, 2017, 02:44:24 PM
I work in customer service and the level of stupidity I deal with daily is staggering. I am often surprised that some of our customers haven't drown themselves while drinking a glass of water.

Used to work in low-level IT back in the day. The number of times I've heard, "My laptop/computer/discman/et cetera isn't working, FIX IT," was staggering. The number of times my response was "You have to turn it on first," was in far greater numbers than you might think. Legitimately, without exaggeration, I can tell you that approximately 70% of all issues were related to the fact that these people simply did not turn their devices on. Most of them turned red and got embarrassed, but enough of them were extremely angry with me, as though their lack of thought was my fault (though I recognized then and now that they felt dumb and just wanted to blame me). Left the industry about a year after college, when cell phones were becoming a popular thing, specifically because I knew that it was just going to create a new kind of dumb customer, and I'd had enough.

But yes, I've also experienced people trying to open the doors when we were closed, calling before or after posted hours, pushing on a pull door, and a whole bunch of other stuff. When I was freelancing as a writer/editor, price negotiations were fun, because I charged by the word. You would be stunned at the number of people violently angry that $0.05/word for 10,000 words is $500 and not $50, even after I had explicitly explained the math down to the middle school level (I drew one guy a sarcastic picture, with bunches of twenty words equaling a dollar, then adding groups until I hit the word count of the document, with each group clearly numbered; he still didn't get it).

As for Elaine, I don't think it's safe to assume stupidity where she's concerned. She lived with the Summer Fae for a long time, and while it's not as treacherous as Winter, I think assuming that survival requires quite a bit more savvy than you'd think. Look no further than her manipulations in Summer Knight, up to and including her false flight out of town, knowing Harry would chase after her.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Arjan on November 20, 2017, 03:19:00 PM
Used to work in low-level IT back in the day. The number of times I've heard, "My laptop/computer/discman/et cetera isn't working, FIX IT," was staggering. The number of times my response was "You have to turn it on first," was in far greater numbers than you might think. Legitimately, without exaggeration, I can tell you that approximately 70% of all issues were related to the fact that these people simply did not turn their devices on. Most of them turned red and got embarrassed, but enough of them were extremely angry with me, as though their lack of thought was my fault (though I recognized then and now that they felt dumb and just wanted to blame me). Left the industry about a year after college, when cell phones were becoming a popular thing, specifically because I knew that it was just going to create a new kind of dumb customer, and I'd had enough.

But yes, I've also experienced people trying to open the doors when we were closed, calling before or after posted hours, pushing on a pull door, and a whole bunch of other stuff. When I was freelancing as a writer/editor, price negotiations were fun, because I charged by the word. You would be stunned at the number of people violently angry that $0.05/word for 10,000 words is $500 and not $50, even after I had explicitly explained the math down to the middle school level (I drew one guy a sarcastic picture, with bunches of twenty words equaling a dollar, then adding groups until I hit the word count of the document, with each group clearly numbered; he still didn't get it).

As for Elaine, I don't think it's safe to assume stupidity where she's concerned. She lived with the Summer Fae for a long time, and while it's not as treacherous as Winter, I think assuming that survival requires quite a bit more savvy than you'd think. Look no further than her manipulations in Summer Knight, up to and including her false flight out of town, knowing Harry would chase after her.
She is smart generally but the wish not to confront unwelcome truths especially if you don't have to face them immediately is a strong one and can be difficult to resist. Elaine desperately wanted to be free from the Sidhe so putting your head in the sand and hope it is true is only human. She might have reconsidered later but she just recently had gone through a lot.

So she rationalized it in such a way that it could at least stand her own reluctant immediate logic and went on thinking that if a Sidhe really thought she had a claim she should come to her and explain. Find a home and forget.

How often did Harry hide from unwelcome truths?
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Kindler on November 20, 2017, 04:36:44 PM
Sure, I think that's a perfectly reasonable interpretation.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: jonas on November 20, 2017, 05:03:40 PM
That way you do not have to think about why stupidity persists even with intelligent people.
Nonesense. Stupidity exists for all the same reasons all the problems of humanity exists, the Ego. The need to define the self, sticking to that definition without adaptability, lash out against anyone who threatens said self definition, or just to reinforce said self-defining definition by belittling others....

Even other less ephemeral problems like monies, wars between countries or ideologies are a result of constructs that are all defined in the ego.
We believe in them, we willfully act stupid to continue without irregularity our own sense of reality.... Same reason some people argue theories foreign from their own :-x
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Kindler on November 20, 2017, 05:16:27 PM
Nonesense. Stupidity exists for all the same reasons all the problems of humanity exists, the Ego. The need to define the self, sticking to that definition without adaptability, lash out against anyone who threatens said self definition, or just to reinforce said self-defining definition by belittling others....

Even other less ephemeral problems like monies, wars between countries or ideologies are a result of constructs that are all defined in the ego.
We believe in them, we willfully act stupid to continue without irregularity our own sense of reality.... Same reason some people argue theories foreign from their own :-x

I think you're conflating willful ignorance to support self-interest with stupidity. I define stupidity as the inability to correctly grasp concepts as they are introduced at a speed that deviates significantly from the norm. Your categorization requires motive, though it may be unconscious; mine is concerned with ability.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Arjan on November 20, 2017, 05:59:51 PM
I think you're conflating willful ignorance to support self-interest with stupidity. I define stupidity as the inability to correctly grasp concepts as they are introduced at a speed that deviates significantly from the norm. Your categorization requires motive, though it may be unconscious; mine is concerned with ability.
That covers only a small subset of human stupidity because a lot of people do have the mental capacity but do not use it for some reason.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: wardenferry419 on November 20, 2017, 06:06:48 PM
I have a phrase I ofen use, don't know where I got, that explains some behavior. Selective literacy. People read the sign and only see the words they want to see. My boss tells a story where a customer firmly believed that there is a difference between half off and 50% off and that they wanted the better of the two.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh on November 20, 2017, 08:28:10 PM
Elaine desperately wanted to be free from the Sidhe so putting your head in the sand and hope it is true is only human. She might have reconsidered later but she just recently had gone through a lot.

Why exactly do you think Elaine wanted to be free from the Sidhe ?

So far as I am concerned, Elaine happily working for Titania all along, and telling Harry she was free once Aurora was gone purely as a way to manipulate Harry's sympathies, makes as much sense as any other take on where she is and what she is doing now.  Harry being Winter Knight does require Summer to do something about balance, as Harry has a ton of extra powers and connections compared to Fitz; Elaine fulfilling that role works for me.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: Arjan on November 20, 2017, 08:53:57 PM
Why exactly do you think Elaine wanted to be free from the Sidhe ?
She does not want to be conscripted by the council either. Being free from debt to the Sidhe is an obvious motivation for anyone.
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So far as I am concerned, Elaine happily working for Titania all along, and telling Harry she was free once Aurora was gone purely as a way to manipulate Harry's sympathies,
She could as well winning his sympathies by telling she was not free. Or by seeking more contact with him.
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makes as much sense as any other take on where she is and what she is doing now.  Harry being Winter Knight does require Summer to do something about balance,
Which makes story sense but is not a motivation for Elaine to do anything.
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as Harry has a ton of extra powers and connections compared to Fitz; Elaine fulfilling that role works for me.
Title: Re: Unsolved Mystery Book4 Why now, Elaine?
Post by: jonas on November 20, 2017, 09:09:54 PM
I have a phrase I ofen use, don't know where I got, that explains some behavior. Selective literacy. People read the sign and only see the words they want to see. My boss tells a story where a customer firmly believed that there is a difference between half off and 50% off and that they wanted the better of the two.
exactly, and I argue the construction of such fallacies from the sieve of perspective is a direct result or faculty of the ego and superego.
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That covers only a small subset of human stupidity because a lot of people do have the mental capacity but do not use it for some reason.
and which I theorize is from being unable to see or test their own borders.

Human nature is a bit of hobby of mine, I admit. Mostly from looking to better understand myself, but all people are people.(I theorize lol)