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The Dresden Files => DF Spoilers => Topic started by: Shift8 on July 17, 2017, 02:46:45 AM

Title: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Shift8 on July 17, 2017, 02:46:45 AM
This is meant to be both a question, and hopefully a speculative conversation etc. So feel free to pontificate :)

So basically I am curious of how much the mortal governments, such as the US gov, know about the existence of the supernatural. How much evidence do we have from the books and various WOJ? Im asking because its been awhile since ive read all the books in detail and I am sure I missed something anyhow.

Wasnt there some mention somewhere that the WC and the highest levels of mortal gov, like POTUS, have some kind of understanding?
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: forumghost on July 17, 2017, 03:30:02 AM
WoJ is that the Library of Congress is a secret cabal dedicated to keeping the Supernatural Hidden (these are the guys who vanished the Werewolf tape from Fool Moon)

They're apparently Super Badasses that think anything Supernatural is capital E Evil (iirc they're partly behind Murphy's Career tanking just for being friends with a Wizard)
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Shift8 on July 17, 2017, 04:19:47 AM
Are they the only savvy govt group we know of?
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: LordDresden2 on July 17, 2017, 07:36:05 AM
This is meant to be both a question, and hopefully a speculative conversation etc. So feel free to pontificate :)

So basically I am curious of how much the mortal governments, such as the US gov, know about the existence of the supernatural. How much evidence do we have from the books and various WOJ? Im asking because its been awhile since ive read all the books in detail and I am sure I missed something anyhow.

Wasnt there some mention somewhere that the WC and the highest levels of mortal gov, like POTUS, have some kind of understanding?

There's no doubt in my mind that there are a lot of groups within the mortal governments that have various knowledge and 'arrangements' with this or that supernatural faction.  We've already seen, for ex, that Lara can manipulate the U.S. Navy to the point of using its resources for her own purposes, and Jim has said that the White Council played a role in ending the Cold War.

Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Shift8 on July 17, 2017, 07:51:29 AM
I wonder if the mortal government will get involved in the BAT.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Rasins on July 17, 2017, 02:31:34 PM
I wonder if the mortal government will get involved in the BAT.

I'd be surprised if they don't.

I'm thinking that Harry's lack of arrest after Ghost Story is evidence of involvement of Government officials being in the know. 

He was a suspect in the terrorist bombing of a building in the middle of one of the largest cities in the US.  He was implicated in the burning down of his own residence, presumable to hide evidence of his involvement in the bombing.

And this wasn't the first time he's been looked at by the FBI.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Aminar on July 17, 2017, 02:42:12 PM
I'd be surprised if they don't.

I'm thinking that Harry's lack of arrest after Ghost Story is evidence of involvement of Government officials being in the know. 

He was a suspect in the terrorist bombing of a building in the middle of one of the largest cities in the US.  He was implicated in the burning down of his own residence, presumable to hide evidence of his involvement in the bombing.

And this wasn't the first time he's been looked at by the FBI.
Sure. Sort of. I would guess its more evidence cleared him in the 2 ish years he was gone(counting Demonreach,, Physical Therapy, and being dead. It's not like he came back straight away. Everything from Chamges to Skin Game he basically didn't exist.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Rasins on July 17, 2017, 03:06:25 PM
Sure. Sort of. I would guess its more evidence cleared him in the 2 ish years he was gone(counting Demonreach,, Physical Therapy, and being dead. It's not like he came back straight away. Everything from Chamges to Skin Game he basically didn't exist.

Don't you think that the "paperwork" that the Gatekeeper started would have triggered some alerts if anyone tried to bring Harry Dresden back?

And 2 years is not beyond any Statute of Limitations on something like a Terrorist Attack.

Granted, in those 2 years, they'd have found out the connections to the red court's corporate connections. But since all of the officers of those corporations died, I'd bet Harry would still be on the "want to question" list.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Quantus on July 17, 2017, 03:14:30 PM
Don't you think that the "paperwork" that the Gatekeeper started would have triggered some alerts if anyone tried to bring Harry Dresden back?

And 2 years is not beyond any Statute of Limitations on something like a Terrorist Attack.

Granted, in those 2 years, they'd have found out the connections to the red court's corporate connections. But since all of the officers of those corporations died, I'd bet Harry would still be on the "want to question" list.
That's only if the Council's method would be to actually (legally) bring him back from the dead, as opposed to simply setting him up with a new paper Identity as all wizards would need to do from time to time.  It would get him past any lingering legal questions as well as hiding him from the infamous Larry Fowler. 

On the other hand, getting basically /any/ law enforcement agency to say the word "Witness Protection" in his general direction would make a lot of official curiosity go away.  It would explain away his proximity to "terrorist activities" as well as his Death&Rebirth, all the while giving him the implication that he was supporting The Good Guys so Be Nice and dont ask him Question about our ongoing investigation.  All it would take is the Council having one good contact with InterPol or some such. 
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Rasins on July 17, 2017, 03:39:01 PM
That's only if the Council's method would be to actually (legally) bring him back from the dead, as opposed to simply setting him up with a new paper Identity as all wizards would need to do from time to time.  It would get him past any lingering legal questions as well as hiding him from the infamous Larry Fowler. 

On the other hand, getting basically /any/ law enforcement agency to say the word "Witness Protection" in his general direction would make a lot of official curiosity go away.  It would explain away his proximity to "terrorist activities" as well as his Death&Rebirth, all the while giving him the implication that he was supporting The Good Guys so Be Nice and dont ask him Question about our ongoing investigation.  All it would take is the Council having one good contact with InterPol or some such.

As to the first paragraph, I don't see that happening.  Rashid indicated the "raising from the dead" not a new identity.  Though I can see a new identity down the road.  Granted it's an assumption, but I didn't get the impression that Harry wasn't going to be Harry going forward.

As to the second, I can TOTALLY see that.  Only instead of Intpol, the Librarians.  Favors exchanged between the council and the LoC could work this way.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Aminar on July 17, 2017, 03:49:54 PM
Don't you think that the "paperwork" that the Gatekeeper started would have triggered some alerts if anyone tried to bring Harry Dresden back?

And 2 years is not beyond any Statute of Limitations on something like a Terrorist Attack.

Granted, in those 2 years, they'd have found out the connections to the red court's corporate connections. But since all of the officers of those corporations died, I'd bet Harry would still be on the "want to question" list.
Not really. That's a high profile deal. The investigation would have been thurough, well funded, and need to find results asap. So they'd have dug up everything and cleared the case by then. I'm sure there's still "truthers" hacking away at it who believe Harry did it, but most of them would love latching onto the vamps. I doubt Harry would be a person of interest at that point.
And Rashid's paperwork might have sparked some inquiry, but there' s better things to investigate than dead guy cleared of charges in wrapped up terrorism case wasn't dead. Investigations are only funded for so long.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Cozarkian on July 17, 2017, 03:52:45 PM
Didn't Harry tell the FBI about the Reds just before they attacked in Changes?

Also, I be think the attack on the FBI and the sniper shot at Harry strongly indicate he was the target of assassination attempts, not a terrorist, so he won't be arrested.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Quantus on July 17, 2017, 05:11:15 PM
Didn't Harry tell the FBI about the Reds just before they attacked in Changes?

Also, I be think the attack on the FBI and the sniper shot at Harry strongly indicate he was the target of assassination attempts, not a terrorist, so he won't be arrested.
He told /An Agent/, but I dont know that the FBI as a whole was made aware of the fact in any official way (even an ignored one like with Butters and the CPD). 
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Snark Knight on July 17, 2017, 07:21:40 PM
He told /An Agent/, but I dont know that the FBI as a whole was made aware of the fact in any official way (even an ignored one like with Butters and the CPD).

Yeah, Tilly got clued in, but he can't very well report everything he knows up the chain without getting fitted for a straightjacket.

On the other hand, Harry and the gang dropped some bodies at the scene, and as I recall Murphy mentioned killing another set to guard the stairwell after they split up. If the Eebs missed removing any of their dead, inhuman bodies left behind after massacring a bunch of federal agents would be orders of magnitude harder to make go away than one videotape of a loup garou.



Only instead of Intpol, the Librarians.  Favors exchanged between the council and the LoC could work this way.

Pretty sure the Librarians would be just about as averse to the White Council learning about their organization as just about any of the other supernatural nations. The WOJ about them was that they're obsessively secretive out of caution about the powers they're in opposition to. I wouldn't be surprised if they were behind a few of the assassination attempts against Harry that haven't been otherwise attributed (though Ace is also a candidate).
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Rasins on July 17, 2017, 08:15:41 PM
Yeah, Tilly got clued in, but he can't very well report everything he knows up the chain without getting fitted for a straightjacket.

On the other hand, Harry and the gang dropped some bodies at the scene, and as I recall Murphy mentioned killing another set to guard the stairwell after they split up. If the Eebs missed removing any of their dead, inhuman bodies left behind after massacring a bunch of federal agents would be orders of magnitude harder to make go away than one videotape of a loup garou.



Pretty sure the Librarians would be just about as averse to the White Council learning about their organization as just about any of the other supernatural nations. The WOJ about them was that they're obsessively secretive out of caution about the powers they're in opposition to. I wouldn't be surprised if they were behind a few of the assassination attempts against Harry that haven't been otherwise attributed (though Ace is also a candidate).

Or the car that tried to run him off the road?
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Snark Knight on July 17, 2017, 09:16:26 PM
Or the car that tried to run him off the road?

Yeah, the car ramming in PG is one unsolved mystery (assuming it wasn't time travel shenanigans).

The bomb on Murphy's car in WN is another one, albeit also credibly attributable to Madrigal.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Shift8 on July 17, 2017, 09:59:34 PM
Speaking of the FBI incident, I never gave this much thought before, but I now think it would be seemingly impossible for the FBI to not know "something" out of the ordinary happened.

I mean, a major FBI building had a huge shootout with dozens of monsters. I dont think the standard explanation of "people like to believe other things" is going to work.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: forumghost on July 17, 2017, 10:09:57 PM
Speaking of the FBI incident, I never gave this much thought before, but I now think it would be seemingly impossible for the FBI to not know "something" out of the ordinary happened.

I mean, a major FBI building had a huge shootout with dozens of monsters. I dont think the standard explanation of "people like to believe other things" is going to work.

Keep in mind that this is the same universe where a Coroner can say 'these people aren't human' and get thrown in the loony bin despite having the bodies to prove it.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Snark Knight on July 17, 2017, 10:31:27 PM
Keep in mind that this is the same universe where a Coroner can say 'these people aren't human' and get thrown in the loony bin despite having the bodies to prove it.

It's going to be tougher to pull that if there's an intact corpse, though. A dispute about what intense heat does to a skeleton is pretty much inside baseball among coroners. If they actually left bodies behind, a greasy anthropoid bat-monster with fangs isn't going to be mistakable for human by first responders, even with its belly shot open or half its head caved in.

And while the Reds were certainly pretty deadly, it stretches belief that nobody in the whole building but Tilly and Rudolph saw them and evaded being killed.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Shift8 on July 17, 2017, 10:38:06 PM
It's going to be tougher to pull that if there's an intact corpse, though. A dispute about what intense heat does to a skeleton is pretty much inside baseball among coroners. If they actually left bodies behind, a greasy anthropoid bat-monster with fangs isn't going to be mistakable for human by first responders, even with its belly shot open or half its head caved in.

And while the Reds were certainly pretty deadly, it stretches belief that nobody in the whole building but Tilly and Rudolph saw them and evaded being killed.

And that none of the other people in the building managed to kill some of them too.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Snark Knight on July 18, 2017, 02:22:48 AM
And that none of the other people in the building managed to kill some of them too.

Even if the rest of the FBI were too shocked to line up a headshot or hit the kill spot on the belly, just wounding one heavily enough to leave a bloodstain would be evidence. Forensics is going to be very interested in a DNA profile on any 'terrorists' that escaped with wounds after something like that.

The more we dig into this, the more I think Jim is going to have to include some explanation of the aftermath of that as Harry reestablishes himself in Chicago. Shit pretty much had to have hit the fan after that incident - it's one thing for him to have been out of the loop during past events, but once he's back on the grid, there's going to have to have been some fallout that comes to his attention.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Aminar on July 18, 2017, 02:57:29 AM
Even if the rest of the FBI were too shocked to line up a headshot or hit the kill spot on the belly, just wounding one heavily enough to leave a bloodstain would be evidence. Forensics is going to be very interested in a DNA profile on any 'terrorists' that escaped with wounds after something like that.

The more we dig into this, the more I think Jim is going to have to include some explanation of the aftermath of that as Harry reestablishes himself in Chicago. Shit pretty much had to have hit the fan after that incident - it's one thing for him to have been out of the loop during past events, but once he's back on the grid, there's going to have to have been some fallout that comes to his attention.
Or some fallout so conspicuously absent that its clear stuff was cleaned. Professionally.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Shift8 on July 18, 2017, 04:23:38 AM
Or some fallout so conspicuously absent that its clear stuff was cleaned. Professionally.

Thing is though, that is impossible.

A major FBI building erupted into a chaotic shootout that took place on multiple floors. It is NOT POSSIBLE that they government could cover that up.

-Massive amounts of gunfire took place. People would have heard this for blocks. This would absolutely have been in the news. There would have been eyewitnesses, vidoes on youtube etc.

-Missing Persons. You cant cover up that people died. There are alot of families that are going to asking questions on how this happened. Too many to placate with bull.

-To many internal witnesses. Leaks would happened even if you tried. Your never going to convince over 100 FBI persons to keep their mouths shut after they saw vampires.

-Too much left over bio material, if not outright vamp bodies.

I could keep making this list, but it would go on for too long. Bottom line is that this was impossible to cover up. The FBI is not the CIA, and this incident did not take place in some jungle in South America.

Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: forumghost on July 18, 2017, 06:20:49 AM
You can't cover up the attack no, but concealing the fact that 'we were attacked by a race of Vampires that Secretly controlled South America for longer then this Country has existed' is pretty damn easy.

Witness Accounts? Notoriously unreliable, and the building was darked out in any case. Obviously that combined with the stress from the attack has caused the witnesses to see things. I mean, there's no such thing as bat-monsters. Besides, the Attack Pattern used is recognised by the FBI (According to Tilly) as matching those used by the Cartels.

Bodies/Blood? Taken away and examined by a Coroner who's either on the take, or refuses to acknowledge the truth in front of him (like Butters Boss).

Clearly this was a Cartel hit aimed at the Wanted Terrorist Susan Rodriguez. The only question is, what did she do/know that would make them desperate enough to launch an attack on a federal building.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Shift8 on July 18, 2017, 08:56:24 AM
I'm sorry but I think that is a bit absurd.

It would not be at all easy, and quite frankly impossible, to cover up that attack in the manner you describe. Were talking dozens of witnesses here, and that's just inside of the building. This is not a UFO sighting with some obvious crap video footage to back it up. This isn't two dudes in the woods claiming to have seen bigfoot. This is a huge building full of FBI agents who had a massive shootout with a shitload of Ramps. You could not even come close to containing this. Before you ever thought the words "cover up" word from these people would already have leaked. And no one with half a brain cell is going to be able to disregard that many testimonies as fabrication. This is not the sort of thing the government has the capacity to cover up, period. It doesn't work like that . People don't just wave magic wands and make this kind of incident go away. The government is NOT that powerful. Simple as that.

As for bodies and blood, I would love to know how you think that would be disposed of without every agent in the building seeing all of that. Not to mention how many other groups you might have to get involved to actually clean this up. Some of the clean up would require complete building remodeling, carpet removal etc. I could go on etc.

Cartel hit? Where are the bodies of these are cartel members? Where is the camera footage of their arrival? Where is the evidence of their escape? ETC ETC ETC. You think the news media is going to buy that without evidence?

There are simply too many actors involved here to pay everyone off, not to mention that with this many people you would have legal risks out the butt if anyone blabbed to a reporter.

Not to mention the big issue that would be all the families of the deceased who want to know what happened.

Sorry, that that crap was not covered up. Please take the time to look at the picture of the FBI building and its location in Chicago.

I think the best we can get out of this is that no one would no what they actually encountered. They clearly encountered creatures never seen before, but that's not a reason to assume and entire supernatural world. But claiming they totally covered up those details is IMO not possible.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Snark Knight on July 18, 2017, 01:04:35 PM
Bodies/Blood? Taken away and examined by a Coroner who's either on the take, or refuses to acknowledge the truth in front of him (like Butters Boss).

Taking away bodies and bloodstains would require a team of cleaners prepared for a coverup pretty much on standby outside the door as soon as the shooting stopped. If the FBI survivors regroup enough to start sweeping their building and come across something that blows secrecy, any cleaners are too late.

Plus, institutional arrogance is going to work against a cover story that the elite federal police force got their asses handed to them to the tune of probably a high double-digit body count by a pack of drug-smuggler rabble who then vanished into thin air. Neither the FBI nor outside oversight is likely to buy that an attack like that got done without an edge well beyond what's known of cartel capabilities, without costing the attackers way more casualties than they did.

And even if most of the survivors didn't directly see the Reds in action, a lot would have heard the Ick - 'vanilla cartel gunmen' isn't going to suffice as a cover story for something so big it shakes the floors when it walks and has a heartbeat audible across half the building.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: forumghost on July 18, 2017, 01:11:57 PM
We're talking about the Dresden Files here. A world where someone has actually tried to argue that Zombies aren't a thing- literally moments after surviving a Zombie attack.

And no, there aren't going to be too many witnesses. Most of the survivors won't recognize what they saw (Because again, the building was in a blackout) and most of the ones that did see were probably Squished by the Ick.

So we have a small number of survivors, most of whom saw little to nothing. The ones that did are mostly burying their heads in the sand because "Monsters aren't real", and the ones that don't are gonna be dismissed as either crackpots or suffering from PTSD. The power was down, so there were no Cameras. All they have to do is ensure that the guy that picks up the bodies is in on the cover-up.

I mean, it's canon that an Entire City once vanished from the face of the earth in the DF before suddenly reappearing again, without anyone realising the supernatural is there, do you really think they can't hide this?

And Blood? Oh yeah, there'll be tonnes of Blood. Most of which will be regular human Blood, from either A) The Victims, or B) The Gut of any Rampires that the defenders managed to take down. It'd be pretty easy to lose anything Rampire related if they wanted too.

Particularly since Post-Changes the world has gone down the Shitter and the FBI has other crap to deal with, like those 300 Child Abduction Cases that popped up in the last week.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Aminar on July 18, 2017, 02:00:47 PM
I'm sorry but I think that is a bit absurd.

It would not be at all easy, and quite frankly impossible, to cover up that attack in the manner you describe. Were talking dozens of witnesses here, and that's just inside of the building. This is not a UFO sighting with some obvious crap video footage to back it up. This isn't two dudes in the woods claiming to have seen bigfoot. This is a huge building full of FBI agents who had a massive shootout with a shitload of Ramps. You could not even come close to containing this. Before you ever thought the words "cover up" word from these people would already have leaked. And no one with half a brain cell is going to be able to disregard that many testimonies as fabrication. This is not the sort of thing the government has the capacity to cover up, period. It doesn't work like that . People don't just wave magic wands and make this kind of incident go away. The government is NOT that powerful. Simple as that.

As for bodies and blood, I would love to know how you think that would be disposed of without every agent in the building seeing all of that. Not to mention how many other groups you might have to get involved to actually clean this up. Some of the clean up would require complete building remodeling, carpet removal etc. I could go on etc.

Cartel hit? Where are the bodies of these are cartel members? Where is the camera footage of their arrival? Where is the evidence of their escape? ETC ETC ETC. You think the news media is going to buy that without evidence?

There are simply too many actors involved here to pay everyone off, not to mention that with this many people you would have legal risks out the butt if anyone blabbed to a reporter.

Not to mention the big issue that would be all the families of the deceased who want to know what happened.

Sorry, that that crap was not covered up. Please take the time to look at the picture of the FBI building and its location in Chicago.

I think the best we can get out of this is that no one would no what they actually encountered. They clearly encountered creatures never seen before, but that's not a reason to assume and entire supernatural world. But claiming they totally covered up those details is IMO not possible.
I have a movie for you to watch. It isn't factual, but its realistic. It's called "Wag the Dog."
The government doesn't have to cover up anything(sort of). They have to keep it off the news. Then they don't have to explain, just shell out death benefits and clean up the mess quickly.
Besides, didn't you know there was a large stash of aerosolized LSD(swamp gas) kept in the facility after the FBI confiscated it from the CIA's MKUltra program. For safekeeping. A stray cartel bullet must have hit. And everybody in the office had been reading The Strain recently, so the hallucinations all went a specific direction.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Kindler on July 18, 2017, 02:15:40 PM
Consider that the bodies of the Red Court vampires would have had to be cleaned up immediately, presumably by other Reds, otherwise someone would have put together "Hey, these are the same type of bodies that have been discovered all over the world as thousands of people simultaneously died with no explanation." Remember, it's within twelve hours that the Red Court died.

Either the FBI, at the very least, knows what happened, or there was some kind of weird explanation that was kludged together as a mass suicide attack that was somehow global. (Or, you know, the flood of ectoplasm that Harry unleashed from the Erlking's stalactite ceiling washed away all of the evidence before disappearing).

Personally, I like to think that Tilly gathered the survivors, sat them all down, and formed an unofficial task force, like the FBI equivalent of the Black Cats. It's not inconceivable that this guy, who was capable and canny enough to keep his crap together in the face of the supernatural, got everyone's stories straight to keep the whole thing as quiet as possible. My money is on Murphy ending up consulting for them, reversing Harry's role from the beginning of the series. I even think that they're going to show up as a vested interest in Peace Talks, either at the negotiating table or approaching Harry about what's been going on for the past few years.

Final possible solution I can think of: Marcone. He does not want the FBI poking around in the supernatural, and I believe there may be some kind of obligation to maintain the masquerade as much as possible, as part of his position as Baron of Chicago.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: dspringer1 on July 18, 2017, 03:14:18 PM
You have three strong forces working to cover up magic's existence.   
1) The natural reluctance of people to believe or talk about issues.   Judging by Butter's actions in Dead Beat, this is strong.
2) Supernatural creatures do make some effort to minimize impact and/or take care of evidence/witnesses.  Given many of them have powers to control people or manipulate memories, that can be very powerful. 
3) We have a government agency that is almost certainly working to keep things secret -- while collecting as much info as they can on the subject. 

Combined, these forces can do a lot to hide supernatural events from the public eye.  Snark Knight and others are correct thought -- these three forces are going to have a lot of difficulty covering up the events of a major supernatural war, much less the supernatural equivalent of WWII.  I suspect the magic secrecy dam is really under strain right now -- and will break at some point (perhaps at the start/during the final trilogy). 
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Quantus on July 18, 2017, 03:16:40 PM
You have three strong forces working to cover up magic's existence.   
1) The natural reluctance of people to believe or talk about issues.   Judging by Butter's actions in Dead Beat, this is strong.
2) Supernatural creatures do make some effort to minimize impact and/or take care of evidence/witnesses.  Given many of them have powers to control people or manipulate memories, that can be very powerful. 
3) We have a government agency that is almost certainly working to keep things secret -- while collecting as much info as they can on the subject. 

Combined, these forces can do a lot to hide supernatural events from the public eye.  Snark Knight and others are correct thought -- these three forces are going to have a lot of difficulty covering up the events of a major supernatural war, much less the supernatural equivalent of WWII.  I suspect the magic secrecy dam is really under strain right now -- and will break at some point (perhaps at the start/during the final trilogy).
Not to mention that the universal laws about magic (and the metaphysical implications of the Day/Night cycle) both further support #1 by preventing the sorts of modern documentation that folks now require before they'll believe much of anything.  Harry makes that argument to Butters at one point. 
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Shift8 on July 18, 2017, 03:29:09 PM
I have a movie for you to watch. It isn't factual, but its realistic. It's called "Wag the Dog."
The government doesn't have to cover up anything(sort of). They have to keep it off the news. Then they don't have to explain, just shell out death benefits and clean up the mess quickly.
Besides, didn't you know there was a large stash of aerosolized LSD(swamp gas) kept in the facility after the FBI confiscated it from the CIA's MKUltra program. For safekeeping. A stray cartel bullet must have hit. And everybody in the office had been reading The Strain recently, so the hallucinations all went a specific direction.

-Not a factual movie. Enough said. :)

Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Shift8 on July 18, 2017, 03:38:53 PM
Some of you guys have an inordinate capacity for suspension of disbelief. I like the DV as much as anyone, but good grief. A plot hole is a plot hole.

You guys are attributing the US government with plot power comparable to ministry of magic in Harry Potter. And the other half of you is giving human rationalization totally unrealistic capabilities. It doesn't work this way IRL.

Note I'm not saying the cat is totally of the bag here. But people would absolutely, totally, completely certainly, without a doubt, indubitably, know that something strange happened. They may not know what kind of animals attacked them. They may not even think it was magic. But its crazy to say that the general facts of the incident would not be known. Not. Possible.

But I digress. I am sure Jim will explain everything all in due time, one way or another.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Snark Knight on July 18, 2017, 03:56:54 PM
I suspect the magic secrecy dam is really under strain right now -- and will break at some point (perhaps at the start/during the final trilogy).

It was even mentioned in Ghost Story (by Butters, I think?) that the Fomor had been pushing the envelope far enough that the normals were starting to have a hard time not noticing something going on with the widespread disappearances.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Cozarkian on July 18, 2017, 04:21:51 PM
FBI agents have to pass a background check for Top Secret clearance.

It is quite possible the agents involved in the attack will keep their mouths shut, so while I by think more than just Tilly learned about vamps, I doubt vamps became public knowledge.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Quantus on July 18, 2017, 07:10:18 PM
You guys are attributing the US government with plot power comparable to ministry of magic in Harry Potter. And the other half of you is giving human rationalization totally unrealistic capabilities. It doesn't work this way IRL.
Not the ministry (or the Macusa?), just the Librarians of Congress who exist (and are terrifying) per WOJ, and are the most likely ones actively working the Cover-up angle, making Loup Garou tapes disappear, etc. 

If I was going to do anything in the modern era, it would have to be set after the Dresden Files climax, and I would probably focus on characters in the non-powerful-nation parts of the story:  Guys like Vince, the Venatori, and the Special Collections Division of the Library of Congress.  (Do NOT screw with the Librarians.  Holy moly.  Just don't.)

Jim


Quote
Note I'm not saying the cat is totally of the bag here. But people would absolutely, totally, completely certainly, without a doubt, indubitably, know that something strange happened. They may not know what kind of animals attacked them. They may not even think it was magic. But its crazy to say that the general facts of the incident would not be known. Not. Possible.

But I digress. I am sure Jim will explain everything all in due time, one way or another.
Known? Absolutely.  Rationalized away and never mentioned again so they can get on with their day?  Also Absolutely. 

Some people will deny it, but they still Know, deep down.  A few will actively go looking for answers, and per Bigfoot on campus it's no longer difficult to find, thanks to the Paranet. The big things, like when a major city disappears for a few hours, will get covered up on the side by the government agency that we've been told of.  The key word there is Individuals.  Individuals like Marcone, who learn the truth and take steps to account for it.  Or those like Wyatt Erp that join the Venators or some other clued-in society.  Id call the Paranet the most modern and least secret one of these.  And Im quite sure that the big vegas casino's know how to protect themselves against magic, since that will be one of the first three stops of every two-bit talent that thinks they have some magic knack to Get Rich Quick.  But you'll never see them acknowledge it in their Investor Brochure. 

But at the end of the day, Humans as a group just plain are NOT as logical as we'd like to believe.  There are a lot of psychological drives that we are entirely ignorant of at any given moment, and in groups that gets compounded.  One aspect of that is the history of magic as it was before the Age of Reason, and it wasnt a great realization.  There is an awful lot to be said of convincing yourself you are at the top of the food chain, in terms of personal comfort.  So even when individuals learn the truth, Shouting it from the Rooftops just gets you locked up; just ask Butters.

Quote from: WOJ
http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,15416.msg728651.html#msg728651 (http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,15416.msg728651.html#msg728651)
6) PEOPLE BELIEVED IN MAGIC AND IT SCARED THEM.  I mean, there was none of this "but there's no such thing as magic" nonsense involved.  And not all the witch hunters were in it for the money.  There was a class of men who knew all about the various forces of the supernatural, out there in the darkness, and who made themselves as able to contend with them as any mortal could be.  If a wizard went all kaboomy on mortals, he knew that there was someone who was going to hunt him, striking in a moment of vulnerability.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Snark Knight on July 18, 2017, 08:14:33 PM
I wonder about the casino issue, actually. Cheating casinos to establish an early-career nest egg is bit of a plot point in the Alex Verus series, for one. Now, in the DV, certainly trying to cheat a house owned by Marcone would be a bad idea (I wonder if that has something to do with how he originally got clued in?), but are all big casinos aware?

Given the diversity of different talents at the lower end of the food chain or the range of skills that can be concentrated in a wizard-level or nearly such practitioner, blocking all possible all possible avenues of cheating could actually be very difficult. Trying to magic-proof a casino would mean countering everything from an ectomancer like Mort with a ghost partner reading the dealer's cards to him at blackjack, to a sensitive like Molly passively detecting opponent's confidence levels changing hand by hand at poker, to someone with short-range future awareness like that Paranet member who got shot in GS taking advantage at the roulette wheel. That's a pretty massive range of vulnerabilities to deal with.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Quantus on July 18, 2017, 08:33:12 PM
I wonder about the casino issue, actually. Cheating casinos to establish an early-career nest egg is bit of a plot point in the Alex Verus series, for one. Now, in the DV, certainly trying to cheat a house owned by Marcone would be a bad idea (I wonder if that has something to do with how he originally got clued in?), but are all big casinos aware?

Given the diversity of different talents at the lower end of the food chain or the range of skills that can be concentrated in a wizard-level or nearly such practitioner, all possible avenues of cheating could actually be very difficult. Trying to wizard-proof a casino would mean countering everything from an ectomancer like Mort could have a ghost partner reading the dealer's cards to him at blackjack, to a sensitive like Molly could just passively detect opponent's confidence levels changing hand by hand, to someone with short-range future awareness like that Paranet member who got shot in GS taking it to the roulette wheel.
I have this general impression (informed by Hollywood way too much, Im sure) that the security in Casino's is going to be second to none, as it is one of the few places where Funding matches the Motivation.  And with organizations like Monoc Securities in play, who I assume apply some digression on how much they clue in their clients, I figure even if the actual heads of the organization are not clued in, somebody with clout in their security force is going to trip across the supernatural, or else be introduced to it, at some point.  Not everywhere either, but the big Mecca's of Greed like Vegas and Monte Carlo, maaaaybe Atlantic City since New York is such a microcosm. 

As far as the practicality of it, you dont have to be able to counter each distinct possible cheating method or put a blanket Ban on all magic (like some sort of antimagic field).  But some things, like activating a circle around the roulette wheel before you drop the ball, are going to be both subtle and effective.  Beyond that the same mentality for security applies to both magic and science: they just have to Detect. After that they've had decades to work out how to Motivate Cheaters to stop; sometimes they even get to keep a kneecap.  At that point they need magic to get as close to the Sight as they can get without going nuts (or budget to burn out a wizard every year or something). Which likely means a non-human supernatural agent with energy-sense of some kind (A Spirit of Intellect would be perfect).
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: dspringer1 on July 18, 2017, 10:01:08 PM
Have to agree with Shift 8 that willful disbelief only gets you so far.  Enough witnesses and people change their mind even about the impossible.   Even assuming agencies/entities are pushing hard to discredit such witnesses is problematic given the scale of supernatural involvement with humans throughout history.  Even in Harry's personal encounters, he has met hundreds of people who "know something" and many of them are in groups (like SI cops or minor practitioners) where they know their peers have had similar experiences and it is safe to talk about what they see without being mocked or committed.   Multiply that by every city and  you get way too many people for disbelief to be something that "should" be effective. 

My personal guess is that something (spell/god/something) is actively encouraging disbelief to keep the mortals ignorant/complacent/unafraid.   Otherwise it does not make sense given how freely supernatural creatures interact with mortals. 
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Snark Knight on July 18, 2017, 10:07:04 PM
But some things, like activating a circle around the roulette wheel before you drop the ball, are going to be both subtle and effective.  Beyond that the same mentality for security applies to both magic and science: they just have to Detect.

Something like Luccio's eyeglasses focus from the new short story (enhanced perception but at a much lower intensity than the sight) would help with detection. Circles would be tough to keep undisturbed anywhere with a lot of people walking about between tables though.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Quantus on July 18, 2017, 10:11:56 PM
Something like Luccio's eyeglasses focus from the new short story (enhanced perception but at a much lower intensity than the sight) would help with detection. Circles would be tough to keep undisturbed anywhere with a lot of people walking about between tables though.
Agreed on both counts.  The only place I could actually see it working is actually the roulette wheel itself, or anything similar that has a central mechanical fixture that everyone is expected to remain entirely clear of before the "action" begins.  Wouldnt work for most card games; would be damn complicated on craps.  All the electronic games (slots, video poker etc) should be alright so long as they make the electronics extra-fragile. 
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: LordDresden2 on July 19, 2017, 04:19:26 AM
Some of you guys have an inordinate capacity for suspension of disbelief. I like the DV as much as anyone, but good grief. A plot hole is a plot hole.

You guys are attributing the US government with plot power comparable to ministry of magic in Harry Potter. And the other half of you is giving human rationalization totally unrealistic capabilities. It doesn't work this way IRL.

Note I'm not saying the cat is totally of the bag here. But people would absolutely, totally, completely certainly, without a doubt, indubitably, know that something strange happened. They may not know what kind of animals attacked them. They may not even think it was magic. But its crazy to say that the general facts of the incident would not be known. Not. Possible.

Oh, they'd be known.  But so would 200 other 'facts' about the incident that didn't happen to be true.

You're right that trying to pretend that 'nothing happened' would be futile.  That's not how you'd go about it.  Instead,  you'd cloud the issue.  You get a starting help from the chaos and confusion that accompanies any nasty incident like that, on any scale.

On a larger scale, it would be like a mass shooting.  Think about the confusion that usually accompanies such incidents.  There's 1 shooter, no, 3 shooters.  There are 15 dead, no, wait, 12 dead.  The shooter was armed with an AK-47.  No, wait, it was a pair of Glocks.  No, wait, it was 2 shooters, and they were shooting at each other.

It usually gets sorted out over a day or two, but imagine if somebody in a position of authority was deliberately trying to cloud the issue and confuse the matter.  Now imagine that it involves lots and lots of confused, scared, and mixed up witnesses, with conflicting accounts.  Imagine that somebody has his own people claiming to have see 'x, y, and z' and x, y, and z are all made up at the same time.  Imagine that those same someones are deliberately clouding the issue every step of the way throughout the investigation.

The forensics found weird stuff?  Put out a story that they also found imaginary weird stuff B, C, and D, and then have somebody else 'debunk' B.  Use the protests of the real witnesses that C and D didn't happen as yet more fodder for the confusion.

You've got a cop or an FBI guy who won't take a hint and shut up?  Remind him that he's still 10 years from retirement, has a kid in college and mortgage, and jobs are hard to come by.  If you're really ruthless, he can have an accident.

If somebody has the necessary money and connections, they could really confuse the issue to the point that nobody, even among the authorities, was sure of anything.  Then you put out your sane-seeming, rational-seeming explanation.  If necessary, fake up a reason to divert a bunch of FBI or police resources elsewhere for a while.

It's the same thing Murphy used to do as head of S.I., on a grander scale and with a bigger budget.

It's not infallible, of course.  But it's not as hard as all that if you've got the resources.

Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: LordDresden2 on July 19, 2017, 04:27:15 AM
I wonder about the casino issue, actually. Cheating casinos to establish an early-career nest egg is bit of a plot point in the Alex Verus series, for one. Now, in the DV, certainly trying to cheat a house owned by Marcone would be a bad idea (I wonder if that has something to do with how he originally got clued in?), but are all big casinos aware?

Define 'aware' and 'casino'.

The fact that they are still in business suggests that somebody involved with them is taking steps to keep practitioners from cleaning their clocks.  Even a fairly minor practitioner who was also smart and clever could do it, if there were no defenses in place.  Also remember that somebody in the Chicago Cubs organization knew enough to ask Harry to see if there really was a curse.

(Apparently, it's been lifted or dispelled as of 2016...or maybe the magical disruption from Changes messed it up.)

In fact, it's established that there are quite a few people who know that the supernatural is real in some form in the DV.  They aren't a majority of the population, but I'd hazard that a large minority knows or suspects something of the truth, even if only tidbits or a basic knowledge that there's Something There.  A much smaller, but still substantial, percentage knows quite a bit.

As Harry has said more than once, it's not even exactly a secret.  It just isn't advertised.

Quote

Given the diversity of different talents at the lower end of the food chain or the range of skills that can be concentrated in a wizard-level or nearly such practitioner, blocking all possible all possible avenues of cheating could actually be very difficult. Trying to magic-proof a casino would mean countering everything from an ectomancer like Mort with a ghost partner reading the dealer's cards to him at blackjack, to a sensitive like Molly passively detecting opponent's confidence levels changing hand by hand at poker, to someone with short-range future awareness like that Paranet member who got shot in GS taking advantage at the roulette wheel. That's a pretty massive range of vulnerabilities to deal with.

But 90% of it would be the basic stuff.

Yeah, Harry could wipe out most casinos without even trying, and it's not clear they could stop him.  Ditto Elaine, or Molly.  But it's also not likely that many Council-level talents would bother.  The casinos don't have to protect themselves from the Council, it's Joe the low-power but really clever practitioner who could really use 200 grand that they mostly have to worry about.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: LordDresden2 on July 19, 2017, 04:36:43 AM
Id call the Paranet the most modern and least secret one of these.

But there's a really simply way to counter the Paranet, if you like keeping quiet stuff quiet.

You don't try to wipe them out, cut off the Internet access, or intimidate them.  That would be time consuming, difficult, dangerous (you might draw Council attention), legally fraught, and expensive.

Instead, you set up the Metanet.  And the Maginet.  And the Cryptohistorical Society.  Fake sources, fake news, fake magic.  You get clever hucksters from Madison Avenue to come up with convincing nonsense.  You mix in just enough truth, just enough reality, to make it convincing.

Suddenly the Paranet is just one group of kooks among many.  If you're not already an insider, you have no way to know which one is the Real Deal.

This is in fact something I pointed out years ago (posting as LordDresden):  Charity Carpenter's attitude about magic is actually completely rational and reasonable, if you happen to be a low-level talent.  The risk of pursuing it, and the difficulty of determining who to trust and who to run from, and the side-effects and dangers of the pursuit, probably make it smarter to turn away, unless you're a pretty high power talent.  The risk/reward ratio is unpromising.

For ex, to use my old example from years ago, suppose you're a young talent trying to figure out how to use your abilities, and you purchase two books.  One is Elementary Magic by E. McCoy.  The other is Basic Magic by H. Relmmek.

How is the untutored, unconnected youth supposed to know that he can trust McCoy, but should burn the Relmmek book in a hot fire and scatter the ashes?  He can't.

Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Quantus on July 19, 2017, 12:37:07 PM
But there's a really simply way to counter the Paranet, if you like keeping quiet stuff quiet.

You don't try to wipe them out, cut off the Internet access, or intimidate them.  That would be time consuming, difficult, dangerous (you might draw Council attention), legally fraught, and expensive.

Instead, you set up the Metanet.  And the Maginet.  And the Cryptohistorical Society.  Fake sources, fake news, fake magic.  You get clever hucksters from Madison Avenue to come up with convincing nonsense.  You mix in just enough truth, just enough reality, to make it convincing.

Suddenly the Paranet is just one group of kooks among many.  If you're not already an insider, you have no way to know which one is the Real Deal.

This is in fact something I pointed out years ago (posting as LordDresden):  Charity Carpenter's attitude about magic is actually completely rational and reasonable, if you happen to be a low-level talent.  The risk of pursuing it, and the difficulty of determining who to trust and who to run from, and the side-effects and dangers of the pursuit, probably make it smarter to turn away, unless you're a pretty high power talent.  The risk/reward ratio is unpromising.

For ex, to use my old example from years ago, suppose you're a young talent trying to figure out how to use your abilities, and you purchase two books.  One is Elementary Magic by E. McCoy.  The other is Basic Magic by H. Relmmek.

How is the untutored, unconnected youth supposed to know that he can trust McCoy, but should burn the Relmmek book in a hot fire and scatter the ashes?  He can't.
Well sure, just about anything is vulnerable to a sufficiently motivated Conspiracy, but how is that relevant?
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Kindler on July 19, 2017, 03:19:22 PM
Well sure, just about anything is vulnerable to a sufficiently motivated Conspiracy, but how is that relevant?

In fairness, you don't really need a conspiracy to accomplish that, you just need to tell 4chan about it and let them troll it to death. There is no shortage of willing participants for pretty much any disinformation campaign I can think of. Look at the amount of faulty stories people share on Facebook that get accepted as fact, regardless of the academic rigor (or lack thereof) present in the article. It's not even malicious most of the time, just uninformed.

The one thing about the Paranet is that there are real people who talk to each other involved, and it's not just a forum. They know specific names of members in Ghost Story, and are unnerved when they don't hear anything from a particular city for some length of time (can't remember the names, nor how long it was). With actual names, faces, and personal relationships, it's harder to take the Paranet down, compared to a place like this. I could just be a particularly intelligent dromedary, and none of you would know it. On the Paranet, they would. They kind of have to in order to prevent turning it into a shopping list for anyone looking to take down talents like they did in White Night.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Cozarkian on July 19, 2017, 05:20:49 PM
Casinos don't really need magical protections. Their normal by policies would be quite sufficient. If somebody is winning a suspicious amount they either bribe the person to stop playing (have some show tickets and a free day pass to our spa) or they politely ask them to find another casino and mention that this hugely muscled security personnel will be happy to make recommendations on your way off the premises.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Quantus on July 19, 2017, 05:37:01 PM
Im relatively sure it's not always cordial and they likely still prefer to confirm cheating, especially in the age of litigation and social media flash-fires.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Cozarkian on July 19, 2017, 05:50:20 PM
Im relatively sure it's not always cordial and they likely still prefer to confirm cheating, especially in the age of litigation and social media flash-fires.

Yes, I doubt it it's always cordial. For example, if you win a couple of jackpots on slot machines, you will probably be searched for some electronic tampering device and held while they review tapes and search the machines for tampering. But no casino is going to file ba lawsuit for magical tampering.

The point is casinos have enough reserves to survive losses from the few number of immoral wizards, cheaters, along with some perfectly legal threats (card counters) and that they will be have non-magical policies in place to remove such threats before it breaks the bank.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Quantus on July 19, 2017, 06:55:35 PM
Yes, I doubt it it's always cordial. For example, if you win a couple of jackpots on slot machines, you will probably be searched for some electronic tampering device and held while they review tapes and search the machines for tampering. But no casino is going to file ba lawsuit for magical tampering.

The point is casinos have enough reserves to survive losses from the few number of immoral wizards, cheaters, along with some perfectly legal threats (card counters) and that they will be have non-magical policies in place to remove such threats before it breaks the bank.

This all assumes you are going ot be stupid enough to stick around and provide them a suspicious Pattern.  But we're talking about cheating via some random Magic, which in many cases you could leverage with a single Game.  Mortgage your House, bet everything on Black (or something more specific with higher yield odds) and then go home rich.  Too many wins and they ask you to leave, but One big one and they give you lots of free crap on the hope you'll stick around long enough for them to win it back
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Cozarkian on July 19, 2017, 07:16:59 PM
This all assumes you are going ot be stupid enough to stick around and provide them a suspicious Pattern.  But we're talking about cheating via some random Magic, which in many cases you could leverage with a single Game.  Mortgage your House, bet everything on Black (or something more specific with higher yield odds) and then go home rich.  Too many wins and they ask you to leave, but One big one and they give you lots of free crap on the hope you'll stick around long enough for them to win it back

Casinos simply don't mind if some players walk away as big winners. In fact, they want that to happen, because the winners come back, with friends, who lose. Casinos win in the long run, they don't care about the short run unless they think something suspicious is happening.

There are of course table limits that generally prevent you from making a bank breaking bet on a single spin of roulette.

But yes, assuming Harry had an appropriate spell, he could walk in, play some slots, cast his spell to win a multi-million dollar jackpot, and walk away rich. It is his moral code that stops him from doing that. Even if the casino caught him on tape chanting a spell, they would just think he is some crazy person that coincidentally got lucky.

He could probably even go do it at a couple more casinos. They report large winnings, so that would probably trigger an investigation by the gaming commission and an IRS audit, but again, if all they found was a crazy guy who thinks he cast a magic spell, he would get away with it.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Quantus on July 19, 2017, 08:45:35 PM
Casinos simply don't mind if some players walk away as big winners. In fact, they want that to happen, because the winners come back, with friends, who lose. Casinos win in the long run, they don't care about the short run unless they think something suspicious is happening.

There are of course table limits that generally prevent you from making a bank breaking bet on a single spin of roulette.

But yes, assuming Harry had an appropriate spell, he could walk in, play some slots, cast his spell to win a multi-million dollar jackpot, and walk away rich. It is his moral code that stops him from doing that. Even if the casino caught him on tape chanting a spell, they would just think he is some crazy person that coincidentally got lucky.

He could probably even go do it at a couple more casinos. They report large winnings, so that would probably trigger an investigation by the gaming commission and an IRS audit, but again, if all they found was a crazy guy who thinks he cast a magic spell, he would get away with it.
You could be right or you could be spectacularly wrong.  They could always be ignorant and loosing more money than they realize or need to, but I promise you they will still Care if they even dream that somebody is Cheating.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Shift8 on July 20, 2017, 08:19:30 AM
On a slightly different note, one thing I am interested in is whether or not the Mortal Gov will play a role in the BAT. Specifically if the WC will reveal itself and join forces or something if the situation gets dire enough to require the assistance of the mortal authorities. Even if it is on a limited scale.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Anubissama on July 20, 2017, 09:22:34 AM
Well, the BAT is supposed to have Kaiju's and Aircraft Carriers, so that sounds like the Government gets involved at some point.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: huangjimmy108 on July 20, 2017, 10:31:42 AM
Some of you guys have an inordinate capacity for suspension of disbelief. I like the DV as much as anyone, but good grief. A plot hole is a plot hole.

You guys are attributing the US government with plot power comparable to ministry of magic in Harry Potter. And the other half of you is giving human rationalization totally unrealistic capabilities. It doesn't work this way IRL.

Note I'm not saying the cat is totally of the bag here. But people would absolutely, totally, completely certainly, without a doubt, indubitably, know that something strange happened. They may not know what kind of animals attacked them. They may not even think it was magic. But its crazy to say that the general facts of the incident would not be known. Not. Possible.

But I digress. I am sure Jim will explain everything all in due time, one way or another.

This is not something new. People has known all along.

Who have not heard of strange supernatural happenings?

That is that creepy house over there. That particular small town is spooky. There are strange sounds in that neighbourhood at night and so on.

People know, but nobody really investigates and do something about what they know or suspect. They don't even talk about it. The majority pretends they do not know even if they do,  and try to forget the stuff ASAP. Rudolph's strong denial is just an extreme, but most people in the DV is like that to an extent.

Out of sight, out of mind. And I suspect in the hindbrain of your average humankind lurks the fear of supernatural so deep that it subconsciously urge humanity away from all things supernatural as a survival mechanism. Much like the fear of the darkness. You need a strong act of will to resist this aversion, at least in the beginning until one manage to adapt. Most of the time the adaptation process is rather painful at best and deadly at worse.

As long as the supernatural does not flaunt themselves in broad daylight and force vanilla mortals to a corner, most vanilla are only too happy to let things be. So yes, even if there are clues left behind, the attack in changes will be covered up. The supernatural has been leaving clues behind for any willing vanilla all this time, but very very few actually follow the thread. In Harry's almost 20 years of wizarding career, only Murphy, Susan, Marcone, the alphas and possibly Hendricks and Valmont whom willingly and knowingly jump into the pool that is the supernatural world. Not very many, Butters does not count, because he is dragged into it kicking and screaming. The others, like the Carpenter family are rather supernatural themselves and are already involved in this world to begin with.

A Vanilla capacity for denial is extremely powerful in the DV.

The others, like Rawlins, Micky Mallone  and the SI people knows spooky stuff exist, but they kept quiet about it. . I think very very few vanilla truly ignorant about the supernatural. Knowing is one thing, acknowledging it however is another matter.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Shift8 on July 20, 2017, 10:48:15 AM
This is not something new. People has known all along.

Who have not heard of strange supernatural happenings?

That is that creepy house over there. That particular small town is spooky. There are strange sounds in that neighbourhood at night and so on.

People know, but nobody really investigates and do something about what they know or suspect. They don't even talk about it. The majority pretends they do not know even if they do,  and try to forget the stuff ASAP. Rudolph's strong denial is just an extreme, but most people in the DV is like that to an extent.

Out of sight, out of mind. And I suspect in the hindbrain of your average humankind lurks the fear of supernatural so deep that it subconsciously urge humanity away from all things supernatural as a survival mechanism. Much like the fear of the darkness. You need a strong act of will to resist this aversion, at least in the beginning until one manage to adapt. Most of the time the adaptation process is rather painful at best and deadly at worse.

As long as the supernatural does not flaunt themselves in broad daylight and force vanilla mortals to a corner, most vanilla are only too happy to let things be. So yes, even if there are clues left behind, the attack in changes will be covered up. The supernatural has been leaving clues behind for any willing vanilla all this time, but very very few actually follow the thread. In Harry's almost 20 years of wizarding career, only Murphy, Susan, Marcone, the alphas and possibly Hendricks and Valmont whom willingly and knowingly jump into the pool that is the supernatural world. Not very many, Butters does not count, because he is dragged into it kicking and screaming. The others, like the Carpenter family are rather supernatural themselves and are already involved in this world to begin with.

A Vanilla capacity for denial is extremely powerful in the DV.

The others, like Rawlins, Micky Mallone  and the SI people knows spooky stuff exist, but they kept quiet about it. . I think very very few vanilla truly ignorant about the supernatural. Knowing is one thing, acknowledging it however is another matter.

Sorry man but these are awful comparisons.

You are comparing suspicious activity or pure superstition to a major public incident. You are also comparing the low-leve operations of SI with few direct actors to an incident that was loud, deadly, and littered with physical evidence for others to see. These are not fair comparisons what so ever. Notice that I havent questioned the other events in the series, but specifically this one.

People can only deny things so long as they can provide alternative explanations for them with a degree of rationality. This is in fact the official DV explanation for how most things go unnoticed, that excepting massive evidence, people will assume natural causes instead of making up something they know nothing about. That does not apply to the shootout with the FBI.

Im not saying that the whole super natural is outed. But at the very least it is now public knowledge that some kind of violent new species of animal exists. But it is utterly absurd to state that the general details of that incident did not get out. You cannot use the "denial" excuse ad infinitum. At some point it breaks.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Quantus on July 20, 2017, 12:14:41 PM
Sorry man but these are awful comparisons.

You are comparing suspicious activity or pure superstition to a major public incident. You are also comparing the low-leve operations of SI with few direct actors to an incident that was loud, deadly, and littered with physical evidence for others to see. These are not fair comparisons what so ever. Notice that I havent questioned the other events in the series, but specifically this one.

People can only deny things so long as they can provide alternative explanations for them with a degree of rationality. This is in fact the official DV explanation for how most things go unnoticed, that excepting massive evidence, people will assume natural causes instead of making up something they know nothing about. That does not apply to the shootout with the FBI.

Im not saying that the whole super natural is outed. But at the very least it is now public knowledge that some kind of violent new species of animal exists. But it is utterly absurd to state that the general details of that incident did not get out. You cannot use the "denial" excuse ad infinitum. At some point it breaks.
I think you are assuming that the only way to cover it up is to somehow make it so the incident never happened, and I agree that is absurd.  But that's not really how they do it.  They cover it up exactly the same way SI does: by filling in the boxes on the forms with more palatable explanation (And Rudolph proves you dont have to be consciously complicit to play that role).  They had a bombing followed by a high-profile attack on the FBI HQ that was investigating it.  One Person-of-Interest indicated that it was connected to a particularly powerful cartel/"Corporate Constellation" out of South America, and then a day or two later All of them Dies under mysterious circumstances all over the world. Nothing about this scream magic, and everything about it screams warring cartels and international terrorism. The only "evidence" possible might be the Rampire bodies, but the only person that might be able to definitively determine that they are not human would be some Medical Examiner, who would then immediately be "doing a three-month stint at a mental hospital for observation" just like Butters. 

Keep in mind that the events dont need to be covered up, it's just that the details need to be rejected by the Official Story early enough.  After that it lives on only in minds protected by tinfoil hats who are CONVINCED that the earth is flat and the moonlanding was fake and there are mind-control chemicals in the soap.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Shift8 on July 20, 2017, 02:13:31 PM
I think you are assuming that the only way to cover it up is to somehow make it so the incident never happened, and I agree that is absurd.  But that's not really how they do it.  They cover it up exactly the same way SI does: by filling in the boxes on the forms with more palatable explanation (And Rudolph proves you dont have to be consciously complicit to play that role).  They had a bombing followed by a high-profile attack on the FBI HQ that was investigating it.  One Person-of-Interest indicated that it was connected to a particularly powerful cartel/"Corporate Constellation" out of South America, and then a day or two later All of them Dies under mysterious circumstances all over the world. Nothing about this scream magic, and everything about it screams warring cartels and international terrorism. The only "evidence" possible might be the Rampire bodies, but the only person that might be able to definitively determine that they are not human would be some Medical Examiner, who would then immediately be "doing a three-month stint at a mental hospital for observation" just like Butters. 

Keep in mind that the events dont need to be covered up, it's just that the details need to be rejected by the Official Story early enough.  After that it lives on only in minds protected by tinfoil hats who are CONVINCED that the earth is flat and the moonlanding was fake and there are mind-control chemicals in the soap.

There are too many witnesses for the level of deception you guys want to pull off here. The government cant wave a magic wand and turn off people brains. Too many people know for certain this wasnt a cartel. Not to mention its going to take all of about 5 seconds for someone to put together the problem that is: where is the evidence of the cartels arrival? Where are the bodies? Where are all the cartel weapons? I mean we can sit here an list these problems all day.

The problem you have here is that given how many data points there are that would be impossible to hide, no cover story about a cartel is going to last more than 90 seconds. You are never going to convince all, or even a majority, of the agents involved to keep their mouths shut. And the cover story is going to fall apart under media scrutiny.

And again, Im not saying that this means suddenly everyone believes in Vampires. Just that at the very least they know some new violent species of animal was on the loose.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Quantus on July 20, 2017, 02:25:31 PM
There are too many witnesses for the level of deception you guys want to pull off here. The government cant wave a magic wand and turn off people brains. Too many people know for certain this wasnt a cartel. Not to mention its going to take all of about 5 seconds for someone to put together the problem that is: where is the evidence of the cartels arrival? Where are the bodies? Where are all the cartel weapons? I mean we can sit here an list these problems all day.
Besides Tilly, name One. There were lots of "victims" but they were very specifically leaving no witnesses.  And other than possibly the Ikk, the "witnesses didnt really see anything explainable.  As to where are the weapons and bodies: right there on the floor holding the guns. DV Vamps dont ash out to nothing like on TV. 

Quote
The problem you have here is that given how many data points there are that would be impossible to hide, no cover story about a cartel is going to last more than 90 seconds. You are never going to convince all, or even a majority, of the agents involved to keep their mouths shut. And the cover story is going to fall apart under media scrutiny.

And again, Im not saying that this means suddenly everyone believes in Vampires. Just that at the very least they know some new violent species of animal was on the loose.
I...I cant really say NuhUh any more than I already have.  Please give me something more concrete to work with than just you own assertions that something is magically going to show up on the front page just because.


I mean, at BEST you are going to get another Bigfoot conspiracy theory that haunts the internet.  The general public simply WILL NOT accept an unknown predator that can attack and nearly wipe out the FBI in a major metropolitan area.  Not without clear Video, and autopsy, and enough peer review to shut up the doubters.  And once THAT happens, they'll start blaming geneticists for the "abominations of science" they set loose, or something. 
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: huangjimmy108 on July 20, 2017, 02:50:07 PM
There are too many witnesses for the level of deception you guys want to pull off here. The government cant wave a magic wand and turn off people brains. Too many people know for certain this wasnt a cartel. Not to mention its going to take all of about 5 seconds for someone to put together the problem that is: where is the evidence of the cartels arrival? Where are the bodies? Where are all the cartel weapons? I mean we can sit here an list these problems all day.

The problem you have here is that given how many data points there are that would be impossible to hide, no cover story about a cartel is going to last more than 90 seconds. You are never going to convince all, or even a majority, of the agents involved to keep their mouths shut. And the cover story is going to fall apart under media scrutiny.

And again, Im not saying that this means suddenly everyone believes in Vampires. Just that at the very least they know some new violent species of animal was on the loose.

Here is the problem. There is no need to deceive, only need to blur the facts a little and the masses will conveniently choose to believe in a non supernatural explanation.

True, there are bodies left behind, but who gonna check and verify the truth? If you heard about a cartel attacking an FBI office in the newspaper, as a civilian, are you going to check it yourself? Or are you will accept the facts given to you by television and internet?

If the government put out a statement assuring that it is really a cartel, are you going to question the government and actually investigate yourself? And even if there are a few hundred witnesses swearing that it is a vampire attack, who do you think the masses gave more credibility. The official government statement or the scattered witnesses?

There are people who knows. They are people who thinks they know. There are people who suspects that supernatural exist, but in the end those people are only scattered sand. Even if those people scream until they die, the voice of a few hundred or a few thousand will be submerged under the skepticism of millions and billions. Those people will be isolated and rejected.  if they talk too loudly, they might end up the same way as Jack Murphy.

Those clues and strangeness you mention are real, but it is not something presented in front of the masses without the option of denial. The ships are not burned yet. The pictures blurry. The videos not very clear. Eye witnesses does not see things clearly. So long as the masses are given the option of retreat and denial, there will always be ways to blurr the facts and allow time and distance to erase the rest.

Not that the secrecy can't be broken, but if the scale is at the level of what happened in changes, with only at best 100 direct eye witnesses, it is far from enough. Heck, an entire city disappeared and reappeared,  but in time people just chalk it up as some freaky event and forget about it.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Kindler on July 21, 2017, 01:44:52 PM
But yes, assuming Harry had an appropriate spell, he could walk in, play some slots, cast his spell to win a multi-million dollar jackpot, and walk away rich. It is his moral code that stops him from doing that. Even if the casino caught him on tape chanting a spell, they would just think he is some crazy person that coincidentally got lucky.

He could probably even go do it at a couple more casinos. They report large winnings, so that would probably trigger an investigation by the gaming commission and an IRS audit, but again, if all they found was a crazy guy who thinks he cast a magic spell, he would get away with it.

I don't know about you guys, but I smell a short story here. A young Harry, shortly after trying to rob a convenience store and before the Council hunted him down, tries to beat a casino's odds so he can use the money to go into hiding. Casino security catches on, and one of the higher ups, who knows about the supernatural, reaches out to the White Council, which is how they tracked him down for his trial.

I'd read it.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Zaphodess on July 21, 2017, 03:11:59 PM
There are too many witnesses for the level of deception you guys want to pull off here. The government cant wave a magic wand and turn off people brains. Too many people know for certain this wasnt a cartel. Not to mention its going to take all of about 5 seconds for someone to put together the problem that is: where is the evidence of the cartels arrival? Where are the bodies? Where are all the cartel weapons? I mean we can sit here an list these problems all day.

The problem you have here is that given how many data points there are that would be impossible to hide, no cover story about a cartel is going to last more than 90 seconds. You are never going to convince all, or even a majority, of the agents involved to keep their mouths shut. And the cover story is going to fall apart under media scrutiny.

And again, Im not saying that this means suddenly everyone believes in Vampires. Just that at the very least they know some new violent species of animal was on the loose.
It's possible imo that the FBI incident was so huge, that the Blackstaff was actually allowed to use his power to make people forget certain things. Or the Fae intervened, who don't bother about the Laws at all. What the Reds did there, was described several times as the equivalent of starting an atomic war in the supernatural world. Nobody wants the normals to really take note of them (again).
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: kazimmoinuddin on July 21, 2017, 08:17:51 PM
We know Marcone and the raiths have high level mortal connections, it makes me wonder if those in the know might have similar connections. It would make sense that if supernatural factions have links to the mortal power structure, that the mortal faction aware of the supernatural would have their own connections to the supernatural, even if they have obscured them and themselves.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: LordDresden2 on July 23, 2017, 03:43:18 AM
It's possible imo that the FBI incident was so huge, that the Blackstaff was actually allowed to use his power to make people forget certain things.

It's the sort of thing the Blackstaff can do...but I don't know that he could do it on a scale of hundreds at once.  But why bother?  Things are already confused enough that they probably don't need to do anything at all.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: LordDresden2 on July 23, 2017, 03:45:31 AM

And again, Im not saying that this means suddenly everyone believes in Vampires. Just that at the very least they know some new violent species of animal was on the loose.

No, they know that somebody said they saw some kind of new creature on the loose.  They also hear somebody explaining why the previous witness was mistaken.  How do they know who to believe?  Did any Rampires actually appear on live TV?  If so, how many?  How clear were the images?  And of course TV images are notoriously falsifiable...

All people really know after the incident is that something happened.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: LordDresden2 on July 23, 2017, 03:46:49 AM
We know Marcone and the raiths have high level mortal connections, it makes me wonder if those in the know might have similar connections. It would make sense that if supernatural factions have links to the mortal power structure, that the mortal faction aware of the supernatural would have their own connections to the supernatural, even if they have obscured them and themselves.

Oh, that's a good bet.  The Council and the Librarians, for ex (if that's what the Librarians are) might not be officially aware of each other, but that doesn't mean that individual Librarians and individual Wizards don't interact.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Rasins on July 25, 2017, 05:36:52 PM
I don't know about you guys, but I smell a short story here. A young Harry, shortly after trying to rob a convenience store and before the Council hunted him down, tries to beat a casino's odds so he can use the money to go into hiding. Casino security catches on, and one of the higher ups, who knows about the supernatural, reaches out to the White Council, which is how they tracked him down for his trial.

I'd read it.

I like it, with one objection.

The Merphyonic field.
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Quantus on July 25, 2017, 06:13:14 PM
I like it, with one objection.

The Merphyonic field.
If he found his way to an older casino it's possible there might be mechanical slots around?
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: LordDresden2 on July 26, 2017, 03:06:19 AM
If he found his way to an older casino it's possible there might be mechanical slots around?

Well, Harry was 16, which means it would have been happening circa ~1986 or so, give or take.  When did the electronic slots start displacing the traditional ones in a big way?

(I can remember as a kid that if you saw slot machines on TV, it was always the mechanical ones, back in the 70s.)
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Quantus on July 26, 2017, 12:19:57 PM
Well, Harry was 16, which means it would have been happening circa ~1986 or so, give or take.  When did the electronic slots start displacing the traditional ones in a big way?

(I can remember as a kid that if you saw slot machines on TV, it was always the mechanical ones, back in the 70s.)
I remembered seeing mechanical ones on TV throughout the 90's.  Never went to casinos in those days (or these days, really) so I dont know when they actually started getting phased out, but I'd think the mechanical ones would have been the more trusted than digital for a good while after the tech was available. 
Title: Re: Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic
Post by: Rasins on July 27, 2017, 05:06:02 PM
I could see him doing the Roulette thing or the craps thing sooner than a slot machine.  Maybe even a Lotto/bingo.