Honestly, I think that if Cowl isn't a future Dresden, then he must be an unknown-yet-important person.  Aside from McCoy, I can't think of anyone else that's really putting off a "more than they seem" vibe...  but then again, I always believed that Maeve was exactly what she seemed, and that all fell apart.

Edit: OK, not true - Andi also is putting off a "more than they seem" vibe. But in Andi's case, it's more of an "I'm partially paralyzed" or "I suffered brain damage" vibe than an "I'm a secret dark lord" vibe.

Shift8 - yeah, it actually did start as pure speculation, but Jonas makes an excellent point.  When the Gatekeeper warns Harry in Turn Coat, he specifically does reference that drawing on the power could change him, and that he's not ready. "Do not tap into the power of this place's well.  You are years away from being able to handle such a thing without being altered by it."  It's true that this does mean that it's possible for Harry to draw on it and not  be changed, but I don't think that the Gatekeeper was counting on Harry taking that power, swirling it into a vortex, and drinking it to dramatically change his being into becoming a god.  Quite simply, using it for a working might change him.  Using it to form himself into a higher form of being would likely change him even more.

And yes, this is all still conjecture.  But it's good conjecture, backed up by solid fact and logical conclusions.  The best sort.  In any case, I don't think that Jim would have had a loophole so big that anyone could just do the Dark Hallow for free without negative consequence as long as they put in a Batman-sized level of planning.

Sure; watch https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_N-5X2wf8JM and skip to the very end.  The answer to the question about continuity that happens at 56:22 contains this answer. Jim says that Harry could have gone three ways: Dark Hallow, Mab, or the coin, and until he got to that point in writing Jim did not know which of those he would choose.

Sorry, but I don't believe that Harry will ever get a Warden's sword.  It seems to me that Jim is purposefully holding Harry back from wielding any sword.  Considering Harry's slow but steady change of opinion in regards to God, faith, his devotion to Magic, the fuzzy undefined nature of the White God in the Dresden Files, and his respect to the Swords - not to mention Michael's subtle actions indicating that he believes Harry could be a wielder - I personally believe that Harry will one day be put in a position in which he's forced to take up the Sword of Love, and thus discard one Mantle of power for another.  He's being prepared for it.

Yeah, it's currently a huge stretch for his character, but that's the fun thing about predicting things that will happen in the Big Apocalyptic Trilogy.  If a halfhearted Baptist, an Atheist, and a Jew can be a Knight of the Cross, then I don't see why a wizard can't.

Cowl is a time-traveled version of Harry Dresden.  In the full timeline of the Dresden Files, Cowl is the first Harry Dresden; Dresden Prime.  The Harry we all know and love is Dresden Secunde, a Dresden that Cowl had created by time-traveling back to the period of time just prior to Storm Front, inserting himself in the timeline, and causing his past self’s actions to branch out dramatically different, causing a temporal paradox.

Yeah, it’s a lot.  Hang with me here.

First, it’s important to note that Butcher has spent an awful long time casually setting up the mechanics of time travel – between Bob’s lectures in Proven Guilty, and Vadderung’s exposition in Mac’s bar in Cold Days, to even the Gatekeeper’s warning to Harry on the island in Turn Coat.  It’s a subject that has been mentioned time and time again, even as recently as Skin Game, when Butcher makes sure that Dresden reminds the reader during his first conversation with Michael that time travel is technically possible and has all sorts of consequences.

Butcher is a self-proclaimed “lazy writer” in the best sense; he regularly uses Chekov’s guns throughout his writing to set up later story.  If something is mentioned, highlighted, named, but is seemingly inconsequential for the current storyline, then it absolutely will have a purpose and will appear later in the story.  He’s been building this story for decades and has had the same outline for the entire thing.  Therefore, we can guarantee that time travel will be featured.  It either will happen and affect the later plot, or has already happened and currently affects the plot, and will be revealed later.  Those are our two options.

Keep in mind that Jim has already heavily hinted that Dresden has gone back in time at one point in the novels.  Remember Dresden’s survival of Little Chicago’s maiden run.  Someone intervenes who knows about Little Chicago, knows it intimately enough to fix the circuitry, knows that Dresden’s going to attempt using it to save Molly, knows Dresden’s wards and how to get by them, even knows the flaws in Little Chicago and how to fix it, and knows to do it just in time, without leaving any evidence.  Bob’s last bit in Proven Guilty pretty much points to that the only one who could have fixed Little Chicago is Harry himself, and the setting of Bob and Harry chatting mirrors Bob and Harry chatting in the very beginning as they discussed the nuances of time travel.  Keep that in mind.

Vadderung has suggested that the act of travelling through time is an action which creates an alternate universe, and this has been basically all but confirmed through the writing of the Dresden Files – and not simply from Butcher’s confirmation of the subject matter of Mirror Mirror.  Consider Dresden’s soul gaze with Molly showing a multitude of possible futures, or Dresden’s dream of the multiple Dresdens in Skin Game.  Chicago Between holding all of the buildings that could have been, or should have been.  Even Dresden’s constant internal fear that he could have so easily gone down the lefthand path, which pretty much asserts itself in almost every book.  And with Butcher’s admission that the villain in Mirror Mirror is a Harry who had made one different choice at Bianca’s party, Butcher is essentially backing up a string-theory style Dresdenverse, in which every choice made by a free will-wielding mortal has power, and can drastically shape their universe – or spin off another one.

I know it’s a big ask, but take all that as a given: that alternate universes exist in a vast multitude, that different choices create different realities in the multiverse, that the act of reverse time travel creates an alternate universe, and that time travel has already happened at least once in the Dresden Files, which has not been made clear to Harry, and by extension, us.  Accepting this at least makes it possible for the “second timeline” theory of the Dresden Files to make sense.

But even if all those things are to be true, why pick Cowl to be dark-future Dresden, over other such people as Pietrovich?  Well, other than the fact that Simon really is dead, and the only twist about his story is that Archangel was set in motion by the Blackstaff, which is actually not some special office of the White Council but a cover-up lie told to Harry – um, but that’s another theory for another time.  *cough*

It goes back to Vadderung’s conversation with Dresden about the passage of time, and how important events have an inertia to them which will cause them to happen despite minor or major temporal changes.  This is culminated by Vadderung’s ominous answer to Harry when he asks if he can stop the attack on Demonreach – “Perhaps you already have.”  In the context of their discussion, this doesn’t suggest that Harry has somehow already defeated it in this timeline – rather, it suggests that in a prior timeline Harry had stopped it, and that Harry’s “law of conservation of history” will funnel him into a course of action in which he will stop it.  This Law of Conservation of History is a huge smoking Chekov’s Gun.  It has absolutely no significance to the story, but is such a poignant statement that it must have meaning – and if Vadderung is correct, then this is extremely significant.  Dresden does, of course, defeat the Big Bad, because Dresden always manages to defeat the Big Bad, despite the odds against him.  And if Dresden got the assist in Cold Days because he had already defeated Maeve in an alternate timeline… does that apply to other stories?

Remember back in Turn Coat, when the Gatekeeper warns Harry against challenging the council because it is “not yet his time?”  The Gatekeeper is another who seems to have mucked around in time enough to know what will happen, and he reaffirms that there is a specific path that Dresden follows.  The Gatekeeper also notes that Dresden has repeatedly defied all odds and beaten foes far beyond what should be his ability to overcome.  The Gatekeeper is pretty much convinced that Dresden –must- be receiving aid from somewhere, because his repeated feats are just not likely.  Taken in context of the story, it seems insane that Harry would still be alive at this point.  But, if our Dresden is in the secondary timeline, and is mirroring the actions of a Dresden Prime who had sought power at all costs for the greater good… it kind of makes sense that our Dresden always makes it through by the skin of his teeth.  He is, in a way, protected by the law of conservation of history.  The story of the Dresden Files mirrors Butcher’s attitude towards the timeline:  He knows the big things that are going to happen; he doesn’t necessarily know how they will happen until he gets up to them, but every large event is going to take place, one way or another, and Harry’s going to continuously grow stronger each time.

However, by Vadderung’s outline, the only way for Dresden to have temporal protection is for a first Dresden - Dresden Prime - to have lived through those events, gone back in time, and created a paradox.  That is what spins off an alternate universe.  But if Dresden Prime has done such a thing, where is he?  Knowing his personality, he wouldn’t be content to sit in a bunker or in Demonreach for decades and not influence anything.  He would have travelled in time for a reason and would be trying to change the past.  Due to his savior complex, he would likely be trying his best to prevent something from taking place.  He would be active.  But if he exists, he is at least hidden from view.

Enter Cowl.

Cowl has been behind the scenes for most of the Dresden Files, though we see him from time to time – at Bianca’s party, in White Night, and most importantly in Dead Beat.  And it’s apparent that he and Dresden have several similarities.  Their magical fortes are the same – manipulation of forces, brute magical strength, shields, tracking.  But more than that, their personalities have reflections on each other.  Not to an exact degree, perhaps, but it’s important to note that Cowl banters with Dresden.  “Schubert fanboy?”  “Goethe, actually.”  Both immediately get the reference.  Cowl is smart; he tracks the bad guys and lets them do the work, and is the only one to have an accurate estimate of Dresden’s powers.  He and Dresden share the same opinion of the Council.  He’s accompanied by a kind, gentle apprentice whose personality mirrors a prototype Molly Carpenter, who is especially good with veils.  Even his internal thought process mirrors Dresden in several respects.  When Dresden casually accuses Cowl of being insane, Cowl pauses, and notes that he does not perceive himself to be insane, but wonders if he would know if he actually was.  Dresden shivers at this - because it’s almost word for word the exact thought that Dresden had considered earlier in the story.  Butcher is letting the reader know here that Cowl’s repetition of Dresden’s thoughts is subconsciously acknowledged by Dresden, and makes a subtle point that Cowl is far more like Dresden than could normally be possible.

But there’s one other thing that Cowl has in common with Dresden, and it’s the thing that makes him on par with Nicodemus for a truly excellent villain:  he truly, honestly believes that he is doing what’s right.  He recognizes the bad in his actions, but does them anyways for the greater good.  He rationalizes his actions.  Someone is going to get that power – why not me?  And to echo Kumori (and by the way, note that Kumori is an Asian name, and Molly uses Japanese incantations) – think of the good that can be done with necromancy!

Finally, it makes literary sense for Cowl to be Dresden.  Why have some hugely significant shrouded character have such an unimportant identity?  There’s just no real narrative significance.  DuMorne was very significant for Harry, but he just hasn’t been mentioned much recently – and Butcher hints heavily when he’s building up to something.  Same goes with Simon.  Yet if Cowl is Dresden Prime, then he is the physical manifestation of what Dresden constantly fears – that he truly is a monster within; that he had gone down the dark path, and that deep inside he is a creature of darkness.  This has been one of the prevailing themes of the Dresden Files from book one – the fear of letting power corrupt a person into doing acts of evil.  This fear is what drives Dresden, and encountering it could very well break him.  But it could also help him grow.  If the twentyish book full outline of the Dresden Files is to chronicle Dresden’s growth, then it would make sense for him to confront a physical manifestation of his greatest fear and overcome it.  Dresden’s already faced manifestations of his other fears:  loss of home, loss of possessions, dying alone, having a child.  He’s overcome them all.  He still struggles with the fear of going bad, and he needs to face and overcome it for all.

There are two main arguments against this theory that I would like to highlight:  that Cowl does not talk or look like Dresden, and that the theory is overly complex, flying in the face of Occam’s razor and relying on too much presupposed, unrevealed evidence.  Both are easily countered.

Cowl appears, head-to-toe, in a cowl.  He hides his identity from not just Dresden, but from everyone, as is evidenced from Grave Peril and White Knight.  Quite obviously, he is a character who is in disguise.  Dresden has said on several occasions that his ‘wiseassery’ is well known amongst the magical community.  IF Dresden was attempting to hide his identity, he wouldn’t just dress differently and talk raspy; he would also try to emulate a different personality.  This isn’t a cop-out; this is literally the logical answer to the problem of Cowl’s different pattern of speech.  Cowl is in disguise; he is not going to act like his real identity.  If the mysterious cloaked figure had started quoting Star Wars, then he’d be doing a pretty poor job of hiding his identity.  But as Thomas demonstrated in Backup, just about anyone can do a decent “villain of the week” impersonation.  And Cowl, bless him, does that.

That being said, Cowl does display methods of speech similar to Dresden, and not simply by repeating the “Am I crazy?” line.  His “Thrice I ask and done” is spoken by Dresden many times, which makes sense as it is a rote pattern of speech.  Furthermore, when he attempts to intimidate, he does so in a method similar to Dresden.  When Cowl’s plan to sabotage Dresden’s summoning of the Erlking is a success, he gloats and explains his actions and plans in much the same way that Harry does when he expositions on a plan he’s been working on for several chapters.  Despite the surface appearance of his personality, the bones underneath it are Dresden’s.

But, you might say, Cowl doesn’t physically look like Dresden!  Dresden is NBA-player tall, gangly, thin, and Cowl doesn’t match that description!  And to that I say, yes.  In fact, as opposed to every other character that Dresden ever encounters, Dresden doesn’t describe Cowl’s appearance.  At all.  As the reader, we have no idea how tall or short or fat or thin Cowl is.  And Harry, as a private investigator, naturally notes all of these things when he meets people.  The lack of description is conspicuous.  And if Cowl has a minor version of a veil on him – something similar to a weak version of Elaine’s veil before her reveal in White Night, or Harry’s mundane potion in the jail during Fool Moon – Harry wouldn’t even notice that he isn’t picking up on these details.  Just like most readers wouldn’t notice.

Lastly, in regards to Occam’s Razor.  The theory that the simplest answer is often the correct one does make sense in real life, but does not hold water when talking about a mystery written in fiction that the author has held for ages.  In fact, the simplest explanation in such a situation would not make the most sense in this case.  After all, if the simplest explanation was the case for all of the Dresden Files, then Mab really would just be insane, Harry really wouldn’t have had a family, Ebenezer would have just been a mentor, and the Black Council would have been one dark wizard plotting behind the scenes.  Things are always far more complicated once you understand them.  Furthermore – having Cowl be someone simple and obvious like “Hey, it was Justin!” or “Hey, it was Simon!” without any lead-up throughout the books comes across as a cheat.  Any proper reveal is done with careful hints, so that once the reader obtains the final piece of information, he can look through the past books and clearly see the progression and the implication.  We had this same experience once it was revealed what Nemesis was, and how it passed through the Winter Court.  If Butcher had not carefully planned specific hints along the way to support this reveal, it might have sounded like a cheat.  Instead, it was masterfully done.

TLDR:  My evidence is this:  the structure is there, in the Dresden Files, to suggest that such a reveal involving alternate universes, an alternate timeline, and time travel exist.  It is suggested that the only way to start such a thing is to have a person travel through time and create a paradox.  Butcher has already suggested Grave Peril as the point of paradox, and Harry as the catalyst, in the synopsis of Mirror Mirror.  Creating this paradox by means of time travel would mean that there was a second older, more powerful Harry Dresden who would have to be hidden from the reader.  Cowl is a more powerful wizard whose identity is hidden from the reader.  He has many suspicious similarities to Harry and has no critical inconsistencies that would make it impossible for him to fulfill this role.  Finally, Cowl being an alternative version of Harry would have major emotional significance to the main character.

Phew.