ParanetOnline
The Dresden Files => DF Spoilers => Topic started by: dspringer1 on September 25, 2017, 08:57:07 PM
-
Ok we know the next book is Peace Talks, which is basically about the Peace Talks to end the Supernatural WWIII pitting the White Council, Fellowship (mostly dead), Ventori, Winter, Summer against the alliance of the Red Court (mostly dead), White court, Black Court and no doubt some other unofficial allies like the (ahm) black council.
The lay members of the White Council, especially the older ones, probably just want the war to end as quickly as possible. They have no interest in continuing to fight and (collectively) little thought of the aftermath beyond some agreements to avoid a future war in the next few decades.
What does the Merlin want? A few books ago, I would say he is agreement with the above. Seeing him in Changes, he was pretty militant.
a) Is he going to go with a quick end to the war -- aka how we ended WWI by laying the groundwork for WWII
b) Is he going to go with a careful/prepared conclusion that might take longer, but leaves the White Council in a far stronger position and with solid allies (aka - how we ended up WWII), but with well established enemies like the black/white court still quite powerful.
c) Is he going to want to keep the war going until he can exterminate the black or white vampire court (or both). Total victory in other words - while he has the alliance of Winter and Summer as allies. After all, these two great supernatural powers may not be allies in the next war.
2nd question - what about the Formor and other supernatural nations that did not fight in the war, but now insist on having a pieces of the spoils and/or seat at the table. Will he welcome their presence (unlikely!) or fight their involvement fiercely or moderately oppose, but not spend his political capital on this fight.
-
I'm interested in seeing what kind of shape the White Council is in. Harry hasn't exactly been to a Council meeting. They could be strong, or perhaps they are not fairing very well, and it's being kept quite.
-
The Merlin will have his public plan, his SC-arranged plan, and his ace-in-the-hole plan that involves Harry.
-
Ok we know the next book is Peace Talks, which is basically about the Peace Talks to end the Supernatural WWIII pitting the White Council, Fellowship (mostly dead), Ventori, Winter, Summer against the alliance of the Red Court (mostly dead), White court, Black Court and no doubt some other unofficial allies like the (ahm) black council.
I think that part of your premise in in error. It's been a while since I saw the 1st chapter, but I don't think its about ending the war with the RCV, Harry did that fairly convincingly in Changes. If I remember correctly, these Talks were requested by the Fomor and are about the battles being fought in the vacuum of the Reds departure. I believe that even normals have started to notice the impact of the war and the abductions that the Formor have been conducting.
I don't think that currently the Formor are signatories to the Accords and they want to be, at least I believe that's the reason they're stating for the talks. Personally, I think they are wanting to bring a bunch of leaders together, kill them and create even more confusion and opportunity for them to expand. I also think that there might be representatives from the government showing up(Tilly).
-
I'll have to reread the first chapter of Peace Talks, but I thought it was about how the Fomor wanted to meet with the signatories of the Accords to discuss peace.
-
The Fomor are signatories, that's established in the Marcone short story, "Even Hand." RobReece is correct that the meeting was called by the Fomor about the struggles over the Red's power vacuum. I also question the premise a bit here, I don't think its quite so binary. There could be up to 20 different parties at these talks (maybe more if we've never heard of them before), with wildly varying interests. While on some issues you might get a split down the middle, it's hard to imagine it would be the norm.
The 20 members, if you're curious (counts added by me for math's sake):
(1) The Archive (both an emissary and a Freeholding Lord)
(1, maybe) The Denarians - Nicodemus Archleone no longer a signatory as of Skin Game
(1) Donar Vadderung, CEO of Monoc Securities
(2) Both Faerie Courts
(1) John Marcone (the first non-supernatural to sign onto the Accords)
(7, but likely only 3 or 4 present) Vampire Courts
(1) The White Council
(1) The Svartalves
(1) Drakul
(1) A semi-immortal shapshifter guru in Ukraine
(2) Two Dragons
(1) The Fomor
As for the Merlin's agenda, I think wardenferry419 got the shape of the strategy dead-on:
The Merlin will have his public plan, his SC-arranged plan, and his ace-in-the-hole plan that involves Harry.
The Merlin doesn't seem to care much about vanilla mortals or even low-level talents, but he does care about not being noticed by mortal authorities. I bet he'd be will to sell the mortals down the river to a degree, as long as things calm down.
-
I think that part of your premise in in error. It's been a while since I saw the 1st chapter, but I don't think its about ending the war with the RCV, Harry did that fairly convincingly in Changes. If I remember correctly, these Talks were requested by the Fomor and are about the battles being fought in the vacuum of the Reds departure. I believe that even normals have started to notice the impact of the war and the abductions that the Formor have been conducting.
I don't think that currently the Formor are signatories to the Accords and they want to be, at least I believe that's the reason they're stating for the talks. Personally, I think they are wanting to bring a bunch of leaders together, kill them and create even more confusion and opportunity for them to expand. I also think that there might be representatives from the government showing up(Tilly).
I think you're right that it's about the Fomor. Nobody seems to have a great deal of appetite for continuing hostilities with either the Black or White Courts with the Reds down and out. They were basically drawn in on the Reds' side through the equivalent of mutual defense treaties, but they weren't exactly enthusiastic contributors (let alone friendly to each other, given the whole genocide thing). I don't see the Sidhe blaming them for the Reds' territorial trespasses, so their involvement would end with the Reds' destruction. And, sure, Harry knows that Lara's long-term intentions in promoting the ceasefire were malignant, but most of the Council doesn't seem to - Mai and company were wary of the Raiths in TC, but hardly in open enmity.
Incidentally, the Fomor definitely are Accords signatories. It's first confirmed in Even Hand.
-
I'm pretty sure the Merlin wants peace. I think he'd like nothing more than to get a 80 or 100 year breather to recoup his losses.
-
The Merlin will have his public plan, his SC-arranged plan, and his ace-in-the-hole plan that involves Harry.
I think it would be very interesting indeed if the Merlin had Harry as his ace in the hole. That implies all sorts of changes in the council and the Merlin. I would argue that up to this point the Merlin has never looked at Harry as anything more than a annoyance, a dangerous warlock or a lever to use against other senior council members. The Merlin has certainly been petty with regards to Harry, he has not devoted much energy to opposing Harry beyond petty political games. While the books are harry centric, the Merlin has shown no indication of being harry centric.
Also, if the Merlin's plans involved Harry in some significant way, then the Merlin plans to disrupt the peace talks in some significant way. The Merlin has always seen harry as a force of destruction/chaos/disruption. If the Merlin sees benefit in Harry's involvement, then he wants the Peace talks disrupted. Otherwise the Merlin's plans for Harry would all be about how to keep Harry away from the Peace Talks. Why do you imagine the Merlin wants the talks to fail?
I think that part of your premise in in error. It's been a while since I saw the 1st chapter, but I don't think its about ending the war with the RCV, Harry did that fairly convincingly in Changes. If I remember correctly, these Talks were requested by the Fomor and are about the battles being fought in the vacuum of the Reds departure.
The peace talks are about resolving the war with the Red Court, Black Court and White court. I agree with you that this war is effectively over, but it is NOT actually over. The black and white courts were active participants in the war and they are not destroyed.
I do agree that the primary focus of the peace talks themselves are the spoils/territory to be divided and managing the conflicts already happening as supernatural races fight over the spoils. Simply ending the war would be fairly easy as the Black and Red would just keep what they got and return to the status quo. It is all the red territory that is now up for grabs that is the problem -- especially as the White Council is not capable/willing of taking it for themselves and defend it against all comers -- and winter/summer do not want it.
-
I think it would be very interesting indeed if the Merlin had Harry as his ace in the hole. That implies all sorts of changes in the council and the Merlin. I would argue that up to this point the Merlin has never looked at Harry as anything more than a annoyance, a dangerous warlock or a lever to use against other senior council members. The Merlin has certainly been petty with regards to Harry, he has not devoted much energy to opposing Harry beyond petty political games. While the books are harry centric, the Merlin has shown no indication of being harry centric.
Also, if the Merlin's plans involved Harry in some significant way, then the Merlin plans to disrupt the peace talks in some significant way. The Merlin has always seen harry as a force of destruction/chaos/disruption. If the Merlin sees benefit in Harry's involvement, then he wants the Peace talks disrupted. Otherwise the Merlin's plans for Harry would all be about how to keep Harry away from the Peace Talks. Why do you imagine the Merlin wants the talks to fail?
I think the argument for Harry being the Merlin's ace-in-the-hole is primarily Doylist. From Jim's perspective, the reason to build a book around a concept like a summit is to play with Harry's now divided loyalties. It's rich with compelling story options which force Harry to choose sides in uncomfortable ways that may have serious consequences. As for an in-universe rationale, Harry has been accruing power at an alarming rate. Remember, the last time we heard anything out of the Merlin was the beginning of Changes, before Harry's Winter Knighthood, before the fall of the Reds, and before Harry had any understanding of what it meant to take Demonreach as his sanctum. He's not the small fry he was last time we checked in with the WCW.
The peace talks are about resolving the war with the Red Court, Black Court and White court. I agree with you that this war is effectively over, but it is NOT actually over. The black and white courts were active participants in the war and they are not destroyed.
I do agree that the primary focus of the peace talks themselves are the spoils/territory to be divided and managing the conflicts already happening as supernatural races fight over the spoils. Simply ending the war would be fairly easy as the Black and Red would just keep what they got and return to the status quo. It is all the red territory that is now up for grabs that is the problem -- especially as the White Council is not capable/willing of taking it for themselves and defend it against all comers -- and winter/summer do not want it.
The WCW's inability to defend all of this now-exposed territory is why I feel like the Merlin might be willing to trade away the safety of some portion of the vanilla mortals and lower talents for peace. The Merlin is nothing if not a cold, political pragmatist, a lot like Mab in that way. The Merlin needs time to rebuilt his ranks, and he needs safety for his membership first and foremost. They simply aren't strong enough to properly defend mankind right now, and everyone knows it. Best to retreat, cede some territory, and rebuilt their strength. And besides, that stance is a great way to put more tension between him and Harry right from the start, and Jim just loves that sort of thing.
-
The White Council I think will start taking the gloves off with the Fomor. The Fomor essentially kidnapped potential wizards worldwide, and then rushed into the vacuum left by the Red Court along with other powers.
-
The thing is while he is sure to have an agenda, the talks are not his show. So he would forced to be more reactive then active in his agenda.
He needs to put on a show of strength. To stop the supernatural predators perceiving them as weak or prey. That or he needs to some how undermine them so better to position the council.
-
I think it would be very interesting indeed if the Merlin had Harry as his ace in the hole. That implies all sorts of changes in the council and the Merlin. I would argue that up to this point the Merlin has never looked at Harry as anything more than a annoyance, a dangerous warlock or a lever to use against other senior council members. The Merlin has certainly been petty with regards to Harry, he has not devoted much energy to opposing Harry beyond petty political games. While the books are harry centric, the Merlin has shown no indication of being harry centric.
Also, if the Merlin's plans involved Harry in some significant way, then the Merlin plans to disrupt the peace talks in some significant way. The Merlin has always seen harry as a force of destruction/chaos/disruption. If the Merlin sees benefit in Harry's involvement, then he wants the Peace talks disrupted. Otherwise the Merlin's plans for Harry would all be about how to keep Harry away from the Peace Talks. Why do you imagine the Merlin wants the talks to fail?
The peace talks are about resolving the war with the Red Court, Black Court and White court. I agree with you that this war is effectively over, but it is NOT actually over. The black and white courts were active participants in the war and they are not destroyed.
I do agree that the primary focus of the peace talks themselves are the spoils/territory to be divided and managing the conflicts already happening as supernatural races fight over the spoils. Simply ending the war would be fairly easy as the Black and Red would just keep what they got and return to the status quo. It is all the red territory that is now up for grabs that is the problem -- especially as the White Council is not capable/willing of taking it for themselves and defend it against all comers -- and winter/summer do not want it.
I didn't state that Harry would be a knowing and willing ace-in-the-hole plan.
-
I think the argument for Harry being the Merlin's ace-in-the-hole is primarily Doylist. From Jim's perspective, the reason to build a book around a concept like a summit is to play with Harry's now divided loyalties.
Very logical. But in order for that play to make sense, the Merlin's agenda has to have changed. His old agenda was to return to the status quo. I can see no scenario where the Merlin would rely on Harry to achieve that outcome.
The WCW's inability to defend all of this now-exposed territory is why I feel like the Merlin might be willing to trade away the safety of some portion of the vanilla mortals and lower talents for peace.
Of course the Merlin would trade away territory. Giving away territory is easy - all the troublesome nations would happily accept the territory of the Red as a gift. The peace talks would only be challenging if the Merlin did NOT want to give away most of the territory. And given this territory might strengthen very dangerous potential enemies of the White Council, the Merlin has a strong incentive to manage the territory changes that come out of the Peace Talks.
* The White Council may lack the strength to keep large blocks of the territory
* The White Council may lack the enthusiasm/support to keep large blocks of the territory
* Other powers may object to the White Council claiming the territory.
If the purpose of the White Council is to leave the Peace Talks with some agreement that aids the White Council in keeping a lot of this territory - or at least make sure that the territorial gains other powers make do not threaten the White Council, that can be a very good use of Peace Talks (in the eyes of the Merlin).
I didn't state that Harry would be a knowing and willing ace-in-the-hole plan.
I did not make that assumption. But the Merlin "knows" Harry to some extent and would predict the likely outcome if Harry gets involved (insults, threats, fights, disruption, etc). The only reason I can think of for the Merlin to want harry there is
a) he wants the talks to fail and the war continue
b) he expects the talks to break down into open fighting and he wants one of his most dangerous wardens there in the fight
Besides, I thought I read on this site that Mab was the one insisting Harry be at the peace talks - against the Merlin's wishes.
-
I think it was Ramirez choice and langtry didn't like it.
-
Very logical. But in order for that play to make sense, the Merlin's agenda has to have changed. His old agenda was to return to the status quo. I can see no scenario where the Merlin would rely on Harry to achieve that outcome.
Of course the Merlin would trade away territory. Giving away territory is easy - all the troublesome nations would happily accept the territory of the Red as a gift. The peace talks would only be challenging if the Merlin did NOT want to give away most of the territory. And given this territory might strengthen very dangerous potential enemies of the White Council, the Merlin has a strong incentive to manage the territory changes that come out of the Peace Talks.
* The White Council may lack the strength to keep large blocks of the territory
* The White Council may lack the enthusiasm/support to keep large blocks of the territory
* Other powers may object to the White Council claiming the territory.
If the purpose of the White Council is to leave the Peace Talks with some agreement that aids the White Council in keeping a lot of this territory - or at least make sure that the territorial gains other powers make do not threaten the White Council, that can be a very good use of Peace Talks (in the eyes of the Merlin).
I did not make that assumption. But the Merlin "knows" Harry to some extent and would predict the likely outcome if Harry gets involved (insults, threats, fights, disruption, etc). The only reason I can think of for the Merlin to want harry there is
a) he wants the talks to fail and the war continue
b) he expects the talks to break down into open fighting and he wants one of his most dangerous wardens there in the fight
Besides, I thought I read on this site that Mab was the one insisting Harry be at the peace talks - against the Merlin's wishes.
Your reasoning is sound, but I don't know that the White Council itself actually controls territory, like Winter does. There aren't enough of them to hold much beyond the personal property of each member, alongside the financial assets and a few strongholds like Edinburgh. At least, that's my understanding, anyway. I've always seen them as influencers creating favorable conditions for them and theirs, not a nation (or gang, if you like) controlling sections of land.
-
I think their victory in the war gives the White Council a legitimate claim on the territory. That is not nothing, but it is not enough to keep the territory by itself. If the White Council lacks the strength or will to defend the territory, other supernatural races WILL move in and take over the territory. The supernatural races are almost all predators after all.
I think if conditions were different, the White Council could probably claim and keep a big chunk of the captured territory, but even under ideal conditions the White Council would have lacked the numbers/strength to hold ALL the former Red Court's territory. After all, it would be a doubling of the size of White Council territory (which is mostly Europe and North America prior to the war) and it is not exactly easy to govern either (dysfunctional governments, criminal gangs, power vacuums, income disparities, ect). That is an awful lot to absorb and defend even if conditions were ideal. And things are certainly NOT ideal now.
-
BOTTLE CAPS!
-
BOTTLE CAPS!
I stared at the screen in confusion for a solid minute before I got it.
-
I stared at the screen in confusion for a solid minute before I got it.
Well, he does collect them, right?
-
Well, he does collect them, right?
how else would someone become the Merlin?
-
The white council might not be strong enough to outright claim territory, but they could support another's claim, one more in line with their agenda.
-
I think their victory in the war gives the White Council a legitimate claim on the territory. That is not nothing, but it is not enough to keep the territory by itself. If the White Council lacks the strength or will to defend the territory, other supernatural races WILL move in and take over the territory. The supernatural races are almost all predators after all.
I think if conditions were different, the White Council could probably claim and keep a big chunk of the captured territory, but even under ideal conditions the White Council would have lacked the numbers/strength to hold ALL the former Red Court's territory. After all, it would be a doubling of the size of White Council territory (which is mostly Europe and North America prior to the war) and it is not exactly easy to govern either (dysfunctional governments, criminal gangs, power vacuums, income disparities, ect). That is an awful lot to absorb and defend even if conditions were ideal. And things are certainly NOT ideal now.
What would the council want with territory? All of the WC wizards we've seen on-screen have had a personal domain or area and couldn't really care about the rest. Half the Senior Council seem to have no interests in material wealth at all.
-
Have the white council ever taken any explicit pro-mortal actions, except against warlocks? We're accustomed to thinking of Harry as the defender of mankind, but does the council have any such stance officially? Several of us are talking like the council cares deeply. The only evidence I can think of is White Night, protecting those who might one day have White Council level progeny.
-
Maybe less pro-mortal, even though they are mortal, and more anti-supernatural.
-
It could be that the Merlin's plan is just to point Harry away the people/group(s) he wants protected. The Merlin knows that Mab wouldn't keep her knight out the talks and he has been around long enough to plan for the talks to go sideways from the getgo. So he'll just point Harry in a direction that will bring the least harm to himself and his interests.
The other option is that the Merlin views Harry as a completely out of control warlock who is just hiding really well. He'll then manipulate Harry and use the Peace Talks as a way of getting someone else to kill Harry and incur the wrath of Mab.
Or it could be both. Getting a lot of bottle caps does require a conniving mind.
-
It is a likely bet that someone will attempt to back stab at these talks, so prepare for it and aim to drop the hammer in return.
-
I think one of the merlins emergency plan gonna be make dresden member of accords and use him to politcly get better results since you need agreements of three members to accords( harry has more then three: both queens of fae, lara raith, marcone, odin, archive, maybe ferrovax). But it might blow up in his face since harry gonna pull some thing on him and most of the younger warden liking him merlin might be shooting on his own leg if he does that.
-
I think one of the merlins emergency plan gonna be make dresden member of accords and use him to politcly get better results since you need agreements of three members to accords( harry has more then three: both queens of fae, lara raith, marcone, odin, archive, maybe ferrovax). But it might blow up in his face since harry gonna pull some thing on him and most of the younger warden liking him merlin might be shooting on his own leg if he does that.
I can't see it. Harry's membership is already through the Council and Winter. The only grounds for him to even possibly be registered as an independent freeholding lord would be as Warden of Demonreach, and there's no WAY Langtry is going to want that information spread around any further than it's already known.
-
I can kind of see meetings happening on demonreach, due to the sheer security in such a location. Anyone who starts a fight here will deeply regret it.
-
I'm going to be interested to see how the Merlin responds to Harry after a few years free of Peabody's mind-altering ink. He had a rather radical shift in character in Changes, and seemed like he actually wanted to win the war he was fighting for a change. That was just, what, a year of clarity later? He probably won't be Harry's biggest fan, but I think he's going to be much, much more reasonable, and less obtusely conniving and self-destructive.
-
I can kind of see meetings happening on demonreach, due to the sheer security in such a location. Anyone who starts a fight here will deeply regret it.
I could see that happening in the third act, a sword of Damocles over everyone present at the talks. So many possibilities with that idea. But something would have to go seriously wrong first, for the powers that be to choose to allow all those beings onto Demonreach as guests. And Alfred would not be amused.
I'm going to be interested to see how the Merlin responds to Harry after a few years free of Peabody's mind-altering ink. He had a rather radical shift in character in Changes, and seemed like he actually wanted to win the war he was fighting for a change. That was just, what, a year of clarity later? He probably won't be Harry's biggest fan, but I think he's going to be much, much more reasonable, and less obtusely conniving and self-destructive.
It is a tremendously relevant point that we have barely seen anything out of the council when they weren't under the BC's corruption. Peabody and his ink were there from the very first time we saw the WCW, in Summer Knight. Our conceptions of the council's motivations may be far more outmoded than we realize.
-
How many would be aware of the true nature of the island? So they could be tricked into coming to their doom.
-
What would the council want with territory? All of the WC wizards we've seen on-screen have had a personal domain or area and couldn't really care about the rest. Half the Senior Council seem to have no interests in material wealth at all.
Multiple Reasons
1) Much easier to find and recruit wizards in territory that they mostly control. This is not a strong reason as the White Council cannot effectively recruit in their own territory.
2) There are wizards in these lands and the white council dominating this territory makes them safer/stronger/more effective. Many of these would argue for expanding their area of dominion.
3) Keeping the territory means that some other supernatural races does not have it. That means some other supernatural race is not getting a lot stronger and thus a bigger threat.
4) Status
-
I don't think the Wouncil has the numbers to hold large territories. That was one of the problems with the war against the Reds, the vampires had large numbers of members and servitors, just look how many they had at Chicken Pizza alone, and they could generate more exponentially faster than the Council.
I don't recall seeing anything that says specifically how many wizards there are, but I could be wrong... In TC, Harry calls the 600 members present a "sizable minority" so I wouldn't think that worldwide there are more than say 2-3 thousand? With the majority of them non-combatant types and even those who have combat experience have less strength than Harry. With most of them probably unwilling to leave their own lives and spheres of influence to "hold territory" somewhere else, I don't think its feasible for them to try and establish a "White Council Territory".
-
I think what the Merlin really wants from Peace Talks is banana cream pie, made only the way Mother Summer can make it. He got a taste at 25 and has been waiting for another slice ever since. He got wind of Harry meeting with the mothers, suspects he got a slice and has been hating him ever since. He desperately hoping that she will serve some for such an important event.
-
I am not sure that our view of territory matches that of the supernatural races. Case in point. The Red court territory was Central and South America. Yet they had operations in North America, Africa, Europe which they used in their war with the White Council. It was also noted that wizards of the White Council lived in Central and South America despite the Red's control of that space. (examples given in books)
I am guessing that territory is more of a measure of effective dominance than exclusive use. The Reds controlled Central and South America and thus dominated the local governments, had a strong presence in most countries, and were clearly the most powerful supernatural nation in the area. Anybody who lived in this region had to respect Red Court power and live to some extent with their dictates. This is why Bianca had to respect Harry in Chicago - she was operating in .White Council territory. Harry's ability to threaten her would have been much less if the same conversation occurred in Bogota
I suspect there are many pockets of supernatural races in Central and South America. Any one pocket might be relatively weak in the grand scheme of things, but collectively I suspect there was a lot of power there. Now that the Reds are gone, it is these pockets that have the most opportunity to expand -- and compete against outside powers moving in (like the Formor). Of course, not every supernatural races is expansionistic or able to expand quickly even if so inclined. But I suspect most of them will expand their own territory to some extent now that the Reds are broken.
-
I think what the Merlin really wants from Peace Talks is banana cream pie, made only the way Mother Summer can make it. He got a taste at 25 and has been waiting for another slice ever since. He got wind of Harry meeting with the mothers, suspects he got a slice and has been hating him ever since. He desperately hoping that she will serve some for such an important event.
WRONG!!!
It was Keylime pie. Much more summery.
-
Key lime pie is good as long as Dexter Morgan is not delivering it.
-
Key lime pie is good as long as Dexter Morgan is not delivering it.
Dexter seems more like the kind of guy that Winter would hire to do deliveries to me.
Mab would dig his style.
-
Harry is a a wreaking ball and the winter knight is a weapon, so the Merlin knows there will be a fight, so simply aim him at their enemies.