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Messages - wyltok

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61
well .. what I believe..is that Mab kidnapped Moly because she has a plan for molly, and she needed to get molly to AT in such a way that nemesis would not realize how important molly was.

of course, im the nut who think Mab hid LC from Harry in TC, to force him to go to demon reach, because she had plan later that required using demon reach and harry as part of a trap for her enemies.

now if only she could lure them into direct action.. by say letting her knight be killed...

rather then re write the whole thing out, have a link:

http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,32663.0.html

Just wanted to confirm which parts of that you still subscribe to after our discussion in this topic. As I previously mentioned, I'm still not convinced Mab has access to foresight. You mentioned in this topic that you don't think Mab can see how her actions will change the future away from what she saw, to which I pointed out that well, other beings who can see the future have been shown being able to tell exactly how their words change the future (Angels and Fallen) or have WoJ confirming that they have that skill (quoting: "Odin saw you coming last year, and he made his countermoves to what you're doing right now a week and a half ago.").

Do you still believe Mab has personal access to future knowledge, and if so, what evidence makes you think so? Do you still think it works differently from Angels and Odin? And if she does, why wasn't she using it prior to the big final fight in Cold Days? She kinda didn't see much coming that day.

If she can't see the future... can the rest of that topic stand without her having foresight?

Also, I don't think that topic answers my question about who's plan the Summer Fire attack on Winter's Wellspring was. I personally believe that the attack resulted in the Gate being unguarded for some time as every member of Winter rushed to AT, so it just doesn't make sense as something for Mab to have actually intended, you know? What are your thoughts on this?

(Actually, it does make sense to me, but I'd rather hear your thoughts first, rather than bias them with my own idea).

62
who says she relies on it? she takes advantage of it. totally different. the WG isn't acting on her behalf or for her benifit. that they have similar interests is a coincidence she can use to her advantage.

You know, that's not really consistent with the way the White God is portrayed in the series. Remember, we're talking about the guys who allowed a history of abuse to continue in a family for 300 years. We're talking about the guys behind the 10 plagues of Egypt. We're talking about the guys who chose to allow Ivy to be tortured instead of rescuing her during the Aquarium fight so they could give Harry soulfire instead.

These are not not nice people, and they are willing to go to rather extreme lengths to fulfill their mission. Taking advantage of similar interests will leave you stuck on an island for 6 months keeping a soul-less body alive while Uriel borrows the soul without permission, subjects it to enough danger that it is almost permanently destroyed, and after all that, Uriel still tries to give the soul a different job offer and makes it sound like not taking the offer will send it straight to Hell.

Yeah, real smart to take advantage of the White God's interest in Harry without putting a deal in place first [/sarcasm]

the rest i don't even feel the need to reply to... your theory stands  on a gimpy, wobbly leg during an earthquake, no reason to push you if your already falling :P

If you honestly believe that my suggesting that the Gatekeeper decided to act in Proven Guilty in a way that's consistent with the way he's acted in Summer Knight, Turn Coat, and Cold Days, is the equivalent of a "theory standing on a gimpy, wobbly leg", then I guess we can just agree to disagree. Thank you for bringing up the point about the content of the message from the future. I think that's the first time that idea's been brought up here.

63
the biggest problem with the gatekeeper fixed LC, for me, is this WOJ:

Quote
Ask yourself why Mab had Molly brought in.  What chain of events did that set in motion?  What secondary effects came about because of it?  Ultimately, Mab can always go to the Wyld and draw in more muscle to replace fallen thugs.  If worst comes to worst, with just a few "seed" fae, she could rear up enough Changelings to repopulate her cadre within a human generation or two--nothing, to a being thousands of years old.

It flat outright says Mab had a plan for bringing Moly in, that she did it, and she planned it.

at this point the only reason I can think of for having the gatekeeper fix LC was because Mab told him too.. he was acting as her agent.

ya see ?

Actually, I've been wondering about that WoJ since Cold Days came out myself. I was hoping to get your feeling at some point on whether the Summer Fire attack on the Winter Wellspring was part of Mab's plan or Nemesis'.

As for the rest, have you considered that even if Molly's kidnapping was part of Mab's plan, Harry's rescue attempt maybe wasn't? I mean, when you think about it, I could see many more advantages for Mab in keeping Molly rather than letting her go.
- It would be easy to threaten her with revealing her crimes against the Law to the Council. She'd be the equivalent of Elaine, owing favors to Winter, being shaped by them, and being prepared for her future role as Lady.
- It would be a heck of a thing to hold over Harry's head. He likely would have been more than willing to take on the Winter Knight position much earlier in order to get Molly back from Mab.

In your view, what advantage does Mab get from allowing Molly to be rescued? I can only think of three, and to be honest, they all seem much weaker reasons to let her go than the two alternatives for keeping her I listed above.
1. Mab would not want to make enemies with the WG's forces. Considering that the first time we meet Lea, she was part of a scheme to unmake the strongest Sword of the Cross, that doesn't really sound like Winter to me.
2. Mab figured having an apprentice would make Harry level up faster, for lack of a better term. This is something Harry himself mentions in White Night, so it's possible.
3. Keeping Molly with Harry instead of with Winter kept her out of Maeve and Nemesis' crosshairs. I think if Mab had a reason for wanting to Molly rescued, it would have to be this one.

Is there something I'm missing?

64
hows this forsight? because the WG is omnipotent and knows harry's dumb ass has to save the world one day so he pulls fat from fryer? WG intervenes all the time even to people who don't actually believe like sanya.

[...]

she doesn't need it, she has proven capable of following the actions of WG archangels in Smf and GS.  the WG and mab have had interest in positive outcomes in multiple books. and either by incidence or design do work along side each other. so :P

So out of curiosity, if Mab is willing to rely on the WG's team stopping Dresden from using LC while it's broken, why isn't she relying on them also fixing it for her when she needs it fixed? It's one thing for Mab to rely on Uriel doing his job (intervening when the Big L does something on Earth), it's quite another for her to continuously rely on angelic intervention when she finds it convenient, particularly since she knows she can't control how they will intervene (they could have just as easily sent Mister to run around the model messing everything up and forcing Harry to start from scratch).

Also, keep in mind, the Fae cannot accept favors or gifts without providing something in return. If she's relying on the WG's help on this, that means she owes him. So this is both having faith, and ending up owing favors... it just strikes me as un-Mab-like, you know?

that doesn't do it for me. winters favor? so? nothing about scrying tool needing fixing?

The thought process is fairly straight-forward, in my opinion:

"Gee, I wonder why I'm getting this prophecy about Dresden's scrying tool and a deadline? It must be important, I should probably check it out before that date."
[...]
"Well, here I am, in Dresden's lab and here's his scrying tool... well, what do you know, there's a bug in one of the power couplings. Better fix that before he uses it, or his head will explode."

and wouldn't he need a specific time of day? its not like night explains when harry used it. to clarify he would have had to tail harrys every move directly, mab has servants, and can blink. 

We already know that Rashid does that for important situations. He spent all of Summer Knight following Dresden around to make sure he was on hand to give him the tools he would need to save Lily. I'm just suggesting he did the same thing here, but away from Harry's sight.


65
I think well have to disagree about DB, I read that differently, as I don't think Lea knew all the details about the word.

Neither did the Kemmlerites. It's not a particularly long leap of logic, however, to figure out that the information on the ritual that if the Kemmlerites are after the Word and the Erlking the night before Halloween, it's because they believe the Word has details on the Dark Hallow. I would say that's a leap of logic Lea could make. So yeah, agree to disagree on this one.

'my intention' and 'I meant' can mean many different things.

Such as?

and Just to be clear, the future in the DF is not absolute. its a potential state; what Mab sees are the things that may happen, not what will. Every time she makes a change, it distorts her vision a bit.

Boy, is that a debatable statement. Literally, in fact: you're taking part in a separate topic on that very statement right now. However, if that's the case, it's only true for Mab. Uriel and angels in general actually seem to fix the future by their actions (like, say, 7 words, or Uriel telling Harry "Consider Odin's words carefully" or however it went) rather than distorting it. Similarly, Odin seems to know exactly the impact his words will have on Harry and the future. Not sure why hers would work that way...

now realize that Nemesis has very similar powers, and the two of them are out to get each other, and things Like PG become clear. Its not one chess game, but hundreds, played at the same time, and the only way to win is to make a move the other side either misses or does not understand.

IMO, all of PG, SmF, and TC was Mab moving a pair of pawns ( Molly and Harry) into place to promote them later.

Why does it have to be Mab? Everyone in the know is playing chess against Nemesis (except maybe Mother Winter). Since Mab states that the end result wasn't what she intended, why couldn't it be another player's plan? Maybe a wizard who's job is specifically to fight against beings like Nemesis? So much so, in fact, that they call him by a title related to his fight with Nemesis' species?

And in order to get away with it, she did 20 other random moves all over the place :)

people come up with all these theories about 'why mab sent the hobbes' or 'why the fetches killed this person or that' when the easiest answer is ' because they are a distraction'

... That's not actually how a good chess player works. There are no random moves. There are, however, sacrifices that must be made in order to gain a better position to stop the enemy's plans.

Do you think Jim will let us make ' Team Mab' t shirts?

Depends. What would the logo be?

in reply to your point 1 your forgetting the WG got involved in PG too. michael even poses the question of maybe the point was to help harry the whole time. mab didn't do it alone the league of extraordinary godkin made a group effort to pull harry's fat outta the fire. mab doesn't need forsight. her mantle is the thing of cold ruthless logic. its a big chess computer capable of running innumerable calculations all at once

Actually, I brought up the same point in my reply to you. Apologies if I wasn't clear enough. Here's the thing, though: there's only one way to know that the WG's team will get involved in keeping Harry safe. That is foresight. Unless, of course, one has faith. In which case, even if you don't know, you believe that he will intervene.

Harry had faith in the WG at the end of PG. Like you said, Mab is the Queen of cold logic and Quid Pro Quo. Do you really think there's space anywhere in her personality for faith? If she doesn't have faith, or foresight, how can she know when the WG is going to intervene to keep Harry safe?

She can't, meaning, she had to do everything herself. And frankly, that particular "everything" is a doozy.

2 well.... you had to twist things to get out from under this one, i consider that a win on my point.

Aww, man, that's not fair! You asked me to come up with a possible message from the future, and I did, and now you say that's cheating?! Damned, if I do, damned if I don't  :'( ::) ;D

On a more serious note, one can no longer say that it's impossible for Rashid to receive a message from the future with enough details to push him in the right direction, considering that I managed to come up with one. So I'm going to go ahead and consider it a win, too.

... Uhm, what was the point of me doing that again? I kinda forgot and just did it 'cause I thought it was a neat exercise.

66
point one: Dead Beat

after he refuses to take the WK job, Mab still helps him anyway. PG 180. Hard back

"I must do what I might to preserve your life. Know this, Mortal: should Kemmler's heirs acquire the knowledge bound within the word.."

Actually, if you read a little bit before that, you realize that even when Mab was replying strictly as Lea, she'd already revealed that Lea knew about the Word of Kemmler ("The Word of Kemmler. Has it been found?"). So that little tidbit is actually based on Lea's knowledge, not Mab's. The fact that she even says that she must do it makes it sound like she's doing it out of (Lea's) obligation rather than because she wants to or believes it will prove beneficial in the future (though of course, the beauty of motivations is that one can have more than one at a time).

Which makes sense; considering how similar the Erlking's ascension is with the Dark Hallow, and that it requires the Erlking in the first place, it doesn't surprise me that any Fae who was alive when Kemmler first attempted it heard all about it.

and she does one of her prophecy moments the next page away :

"one day you shall kneel at my feet."

these are kind of important, because Mab cannot lie. If she uses future tense like that, it means its something she has foreseen. and there a bunch of them.

(I have a standing WAG that after the series is over, a reader will be able to go thru the books and check off everything Mab said.. its very Jim, somehow.)

...Isn't this a classic example of those "squishy words" you abscribe to Mab? I mean, as it stands, we know she can physically move him however she wants. All she's saying here is that he will be in that physical pose, not that he'll accept the job; perfect Fae play on words. She can say such a thing because she firmly believes it to be true; we know from Ghost Story that she can say something that's wrong so long as she believes it to be true.

Ironically, both the spirt and the letter of the statement did happen, just on different books. Harry knelt at her feet during Small Favor, and Harry took the deal during Changes (no kneeling involved, though). But it doesn't change the fact that this was no prophecy, this was playing on words to put psychological pressure on Harry.

in CD, Harry doesn't question if Mab can see the future, but how far

"could Mab see that far ahead? or was this simply a case of superior preparedness in action? "

as to the things Mab said in CD at the end, she deliberately used squishy language. She has gotten very good at letting Harry assume what he wants to hear. ;)

Out of curiosity, where exactly is the squishyness in "It was not my intention for her to replace Maeve" and "I meant Sarissa to take Maeve's place" if she had future knowledge of what was about to happen?

In any case, it's also worth pointing out that it wasn't Harry that said the Mab was surprised by Maeve's actions, it was Maeve herself who said it. I'm willing to say that after more than a few centuries, Maeve would know if Mab saw it coming or not.

the one thing (and maybe its just egotism) that make me think Mab is the more likely is the logic chain. Using it, back in 2006, I predicted the end of Cold Days with some accuracy. I also predicted that Harry would die, that Mab would brign him back, that it would involve demon reach..

Now I got the details wrong. Time Travel wasn't directly involved, but indirectly thru Mab's precognition; and the attacking force was the outsiders, not the black court.

but it was close enough that even though I had left the board, people started emailing me to say things like 'OMG DUCK !!'

so it must have been somewhat on the ball... lol.

or just very very very lucky.

Oh, my hat's off to you in recognition of your prior achievements, and I'm more than ready for it to happen again. Thing is, though, every angle I look at, it makes sense for Rashid to be much more involved in this book than what we actually saw, and LC is such a big source of involvement, that it makes it seem like he did it instead.

67
As with last time, wizard nelson's posts are in the spoiler box. A quick summary:
1. Mab doesn't need foresight in order to stop Harry from blowing his head off. She can just keep him busy long enough that he won't use it before she gets a chance to fix it.
2. What message could Rashid possibly get from the future that would lead to the chain of events in the book (sending Harry after Molly with Bob while sending someone to Harry's house at the same time to find and fix the flaw in LC) without revealing and therefore fixing a bad future as unfixable?

My replies:
1. The problem I have with a non-foresight equipped Mab fixing Little Chicago is the level of baby-sitting involved in stopping Harry from using it before the fix. At the very least, it involves:
- Sending someone to run him over so that he'll get home later
- Orchestrating the attack on Pell so that boyfriend Nelson will be arrested in time for Molly to have to call Harry to bail him out
- Reconnecting Harry's phone
- Not kidnapping Molly until LC has been fixed

However, someone with access to future knowledge knows that all of the above will happen already, so they don't need to do it themselves. After all, the consensus here is that the Chrysler attack was done by Ace, and the phone call in the middle of the ritual, I would argue, if it's not a coincidence, is courtesy of angelic coincidental intervention (the same way Michael appears during the trial).

2. OK, first of all, a caveat: WoJ is that when Bob doesn't know an answer, he'll give a theoretical answer or just his best guess. Why is this important? Because during the events of PG, Bob didn't know about time travel and foresight. We've seen plenty of things, from the Oracle spirit in Death Masks to the discussion with Odin in Cold Days that propose that Bob highly overrates how paradox works.

But, if we assume that Bob is right, and that a message from the future must be a) true, and b) inevitable, and c) intended to change something that is not directly mentioned by the message itself, then it should be possible to imagine a Bad Future that would lead to a message that will help Rashid figure out what he needs to do here (think Heroes if you ever watched that show). You earlier accused me of twisting facts to fit the theory; I think I may just be doing that with the bit below.

So, elements of this bad future (located inside the Spoiler):
(click to show/hide)

The bad future I envision, basically, is one where Mab doesn't have a second option for Maeve's replacement hidden away, forcing her to keep Maeve alive. Molly is the ideal candidate for the job, and in order to keep her hidden, Harry has to live and take her on as his apprentice. On the other hand, if Harry ever finds out that his apprentice is destined to become Winter Lady, he'll do everything in his power to stop it from happening. So, with those constraints in mind, here's the message I would send, if I were future Rashid:

"A user of dark magic will gain Winter's Favor.  Fate and coincidence will stop Chicago's Warden from using the scrying tool he developed with Kemmler's familiar until X nights after the warlock's execution."

X is the number of days between the start of PG and when he actually uses LC (can't remember off the top of my head). It's a fairly subtle way of giving Rashid a deadline without telling him something bad, wouldn't you agree?

(The spoiler box below contains wizard nelson's posts I'm replying to).
(click to show/hide)

68
not to derail, but both of those have been answered:

seeing in the future is not a static future, but a potential future; what she sees are what may happen. As to if she can, even Harry (in CD ) says she does, hes just not sure how far or how well.

Actually, what Harry said in Cold Days (after going through the star light circle) is that Mab can either see the future, or prepares for every eventuality. To put it simply, chess players can't see the future, they plan for it instead. Mab is a superb chess player. Look at the scenario at the end of Cold Days. She certainly didn't see Maeve's move coming, but she still had a backup in case anything happened to Sarissa. Similarly, she didn't see Harry's threat coming afterward.

Am I missing something that proves that she can see the future(s) instead of merely being a chess player?

second is answered in text as well, in DB: she says she is required to do what lea would have done, but she is not limited to it. For example, lea knows little about the word of Kemmler, but Mab does, and she told harry things Lea does not know because she decided to.

Actually, Dead Beat is the eminent example of Mab only going as far as Lea's knowledge instead of her own when it comes to fulfilling Harry's obligations. She even made a point of rubbing the rule in Harry's face and proceeded to offer him the Knighthood (again) as the price for the knowledge.

On the other hand (here I go shooting myself in the foot again), the conversation between Harry and Lea at his grave about Corpsetaker in GS is a good example of Lea being more than fair to Harry in answering his questions than what the deal strictly required. So it's a problem, but a workable problem, it seems.

Editted because I forgot to to reply to this part:

not to derail, but both of those have been answered:
I rate WAGs based on how many serious objections there are; right now there are none for Mab that I am aware of, Jim nailed down the last loose boards in CD.

Rashid has very few if any, the only big one being why?

I actually think the reply lies in what you wrote in one of your latter posts, specifically the part I bolded.

that's not the result. the result is :

Harry becomes warden of DR
Mab lays a trap for her enemies
kills many of their agents lose on earth
makes Molly new winter lady

you are mistaking the first two moves for the endgame. When Mab plays chess, she plays fricken chess.  ;D

Mab outright tells us that she didn't plan for Molly to succeed Maeve as Winter Lady; she was just an understudy for whichever Lady spot became available first (in Mab's mind). I propose that the person who saw what was coming and planned for it was the Gatekeeper instead. That's why he told Harry that all would work out if he was just himself.

69
This is a reply to wizard nelson's three replies which were written one after the other. They are inside the spoiler as a reference. These posts, in summary, discuss four points:

1. Thomas was groggy and grabbing his face like he had a bad dream when Harry came in.
2. Mab, as acting Godmother, can know about Little Chicago's flaw without needing to see into the future.
3. In a multi-book series, it is possible to provide the clue explaining a mystery in a book that takes place after the one where the mystery takes place.
4. If Rashid knows something from foresight, then temporal inertia means that Rashid will have a hard time stopping it from taking place.

My replies in order.
1. I don't think we're looking at the same part of PG. The part I'm talking about is when Harry goes back to his place and Thomas shoves the shotgun in his face. This is followed by Thomas moving out. There's no mention of Thomas being groggy.
2. Agreed. But if that's the case, what was Mab planning to do to stop Harry from blowing his head off before Molly's phone call? It makes more sense that whoever fixed LC knew that Harry would not get a chance to use it until just before the Arctis Tor raid, and that sort of knowledge still requires foresight.
3. Agreed. But when the book with the mystery includes a discussion about how sending a message to the past works, and solving the mystery seems to require sending a message to the past, I kinda have to go with Occam's razor and assume the two are related.

4. Let me see if I understand what you said here:

During the stolen car example in PG, Bob stated that if foresight shows the car being stolen, one can change the future, but the "stolen car" aspect of it will remain the same. From that you concluded that whatever was seen of the future couldn't have been "Harry's head explodes using LC", because that would fix the future, and changing it would be a paradox. Which of course, just means that whatever was seen of the future only suggested that LC was broken, rather than being something that outright showed Harry's head exploding, for example.

Please let me know if I understood your point correctly, and then I'll work on a more suitable reply. I must admit, it's actually a really good idea!

(click to show/hide)

70
Serack did an excellent analysis a few years ago that was the basis for many ideas about the gatekeeper being the culprit; it should be in reference someplace.

I know! But I couldn't find it. And since Elegast's theory index does encourage linking to a source, and we now know more about Rashid's mindset, I figured, may as well make an updated one. Of course, anyone with better search-fu than my own (which I admit is severely lacking) is welcome to provide links to Serack's excellent work.

I still hold Mab as suspect number one though; some of the comments in CD:

- she knows what Harrys apartment looks like
- she knew about bob all along
- sidhe can walk thru thresholds

all seem to me to be less cluebats and more of " good grief, haven't you all solved this one by now?" On Jim's part

There are two big issues to Mab being the culprit, and a few little ones. The big ones, of course, is that she doesn't seem able to see the future (demonstrated, in my mind, by her failure to see Lily's future at the end of Cold Days) and the fact that so long as she was defending Harry as Lea's proxy, she was limited to act only as far as Lea could. So unless Mab cheated somehow, she could only fix LC as well as Lea could, rather than as well as she herself could.

each possibility needs to be evaluated on its own merits and problems. just disproving one does not automatically prove another.

the fun thing about Rashid is the more I think about it, the more plausible it becomes. What if all the hints Jim has dropped in the last three books about 'Mab fixed it' are just red herrings?

Seeing as we now know exactly how close in purpose the Gatekeeper and Mab are, I can't help but wonder if maybe they actually worked together. Certainly the two of them working together could easily explain all aspects of this. I can't quite picture the chain of events for that, though...

71
First, let me just say, big kudos to you for laying this all out so clearly. I know it takes a buttload of work and is really difficult, so give yourself a pat on the back. Reading your post and then rereading, I have a couple of probably minor questions for you.

1) Regarding your point that Rashid made sure to come inside to fix LC when Bob wasn't around, how could he know that Bob wouldn't be there? As noted in Serack's post, Harry rarely took Bob on investigations and Bob's role at the convention that night was pretty minimal. So it would be hard to know that Harry would take Bob with him. Unless Rashid saw that too with his foresight, but I guess I don't imagine it giving the wielder that kind of small detail (like what Harry is carrying in his backpack when he leaves his apartment). But I guess I could be wrong about that.

2) When Rashid sees something with his foresight that he wants to change, we have seen his actions be as minimally intrusive as possible, the bare minimum he could get away with and still be effective. I'm thinking of his very vague direction to Harry about "black magic is afoot" rather than "go stop Molly Carpenter from using mind magic against her friends and being abducted by Winter" (or something equally clear but meeting his goals--maybe he wanted Molly abducted.) So why would Rashid act directly here rather than just sending Harry another vague message like "you might want to double-check all your magical items before you use them"? It seems out of character.

3) Why would Rashid keep his actions a secret from Harry? If it was okay for him to direclty intervene, what difference would it make if Harry knew?

Thank you for the kudos!

Let me begin by commenting on something you said on your second question, which took me somewhat by surprised. In it you expressed that the Gatekeeper's actions tend to be the bare minimum that'll be effective. I find myself disagreeing with this view. We've seen the Gatekeeper act in 4 books (Summer Knight, Proven Guilty, Turn Coat, Cold Days). The only time where he held back from acting directly was in Proven Guilty, in my opinion. Every other time, he seems to do as much as his duties (and limitations) allow.

In Summer Knight, he tracked Harry throughtout the whole test, and then gave Harry a bunch of tools that helped him handle the upcoming fight, in fact risking Harry's life by doing so (since it could be argued that he interfered with Harry's test). I would guess that the reason he didn't go with Harry to the war is that with the Fae Queens and Ladies in Chicago-over-Chicago, the Wall was understaffed and he was needed there.

In Turn Coat, Rashid went and confronted Harry directly as soon as he knew what Harry was up to, and had quite the honest talk with him. There's no way for Rashid to have been part of the arresting party, however: he couldn't step foot on the island, so he wouldn't have been able to help with the ambush. Even then, he made sure to send a message to help diminish the amount of deaths in the ensuing fight.

In Ghost Story, we finally find what exactly keeps Rashid busy so much of the time that he can't help Harry more. Even then, Rashid promises to help Harry as much as he can, though he admits that with his duties, it amounts to getting Harry re-instated in the Council.

When it comes to Rashid, I'm usually reminded of that scene in Blood Rites where Lord Raith first mind-whammies Murphy. Harry learns the painful lesson that even with phenomenal power, sometimes the best one can do is... nothing at all.

With regards to your questions, I actually think they all tie together. Read again Bob example of how a message from the future is generally meant to change something else, rather than whatever gets mentioned (in the example, the car theft gets mentioned, when the intention is to avoid a murder instead).

If we look at the chain of events, without Rashid's message vs. with Rashid's message, Harry still would have received Molly's call, but I believe it is only Rashid's warning that makes Harry worried enough about Splattercon!!! that he's willing to risk taking Bob with him to investigate. So by giving a mysterious message rather than a clear one, Rashid accomplishes his mission of creating a window of opportunity to fix LC, and since he's a hands-on kind of guy, he goes and fixes it himself.

72
I don't see where casting a myrk, which is a physical manifestation, and casting an illusion, which is a mental or light manipulation, are teh same thing.

Pretty sure those are the same thing. Besides, like I previously mentioned, Molly's done the murk (not myrk) again after this book. Namely, she did it on Luccio in Turn Coat.

I don't see where an amateur spellcaster with no experience or training can cast a physical myrk and a physical ward, especially when their natural talent lies in non-physical magic.

The ward wasn't physical. It was mental (like the mind fog), urging people to not get any closer. Somewhat like the compulsion / binding Maeve laid on Slate back in Summer Knight, actually (which is why she's usually proposed as the person behind it, though like I said, it certainly fits Molly the mind-magic warlock's MO just as well, if not better).

In addition, I've always thought that Molly was busy casting at the time of the attacks.  Molly was trying to scare Nelson and Rosie.  At the first attack, in the bathroom, we don't know where Molly was.  But the second attack, which was the Rosie attack, Molly took off, saying there were things she needed to do.  For the third spell, when Harry reversed it back on the caster, there was a delay.  He thought it would be sooner, but it took a while.  That was because Molly was in the car with Charity and Forthill, driving home.  As soon as he got home, the third attack commenced.

I think Molly was casting a spell that focused on her friends, trying to keep up the induced fear in them, so that they wouldn't abuse.  The fetches came across from the NN in those places (Nelson in the bathroom; Rosie in the theatre) because they were drawn to the fear spell.  For the third attack, they remained at the convention because of the build-up of fear there due to the other attacks and the movies being shown. 

If someone else had been casting to bring the fetches across, or even send them, then Harry's spell would have sent the fetches at them, not at Molly.

So your theory is that the fetches have terrible aim (always attacking people other than the one who attracted them first) and then stop acting in the pattern they were following for no discernible reason? That just... sounds a bit too far-fetched to me?

73
So your theory is that a barely trained Molly cast a myrk over a large part of the convention center and a ward that held Harry back together, on her own, for the first time, while watching her friend get attacked by a monster and her other friend died?

Sorry, I don't buy that it was Molly.  It's completely against her character to allow people to be killed in front of her, especially since we know she's empathic and tends to feel emotions so deeply.  All that terror and death would have torn her up.

...Actually, no. I'm saying Molly made the myrk specifically to try to protect her friends from the monster and keep it back (it worked, too; Rosie lived). After all, it's the only magic she knows at the time (heck, if you look at it, what she did then and what she did in Cold Days and Changes is pretty much the same). That it also stopped Harry was incidental. Keep in mind, emotions fuel magic; the terror she was feeling is likely the perfect type of emotion to fuel a "keep away from me and my friends!" ward.

74
and at what point did i mention forsight? :o as you pointed out merlin already created a time loop ergo in the DV the principle is viable.

Whoops, you're right. I combined what you said in two separate topics. My most heartfelt apologies. Still, how can you say the self-consistency conjecture applies (which states that only time travel that does not change the past is possible) when Odin states that changing the past is possible, but just takes considerable more effort (and luck) than changing the future? The two principles seem to be mutually exclusive...

75
well first its explicit that thomas was home, not that he saw anything or remembers seeing it.

It's also explicit that Thomas was utterly freaked out. He had a shotgun waiting when Harry was opening the door. Keep in mind, this is after Dead Beat, so Thomas knows about the wards, and knows exactly what they can do.

For him to be worried means that he no longer trusts the wards, which means that something made him not trust them. The alternatives are someone getting inside the house without activating the wards, or some sort of spell getting to him through the wards.

second its rather more complex of a spell than any of those on your list.

I'm not certain I would agree that the Loup Garou circle was a simple magical construct, really. But in any case, let's up the complexity then.
- Luccio figured out what the Dark Hallow was going to do (kill a bunch of people) before Harry even got halfway through the explanation of what the Dark Hallow was.
- It took Bob almost no time at all to figure out the mechanics of the Bloodline Curse once he was at Chicken Pizza. He could even give Harry all sorts of little details about it.

So even with a once-in-a-millenium sort of spell (or a whole school of magic you've only ever seen used from the outside and never used yourself), figuring it out is not all that difficult for one of the wise.

not saying he couldn't have done it but threshold+ knowing LC existed+ knowing how it worked and finally knowing it was messed up in the first place makes it unlikely.


That doesn't just make it unlikely for the Gatekeeper, though. That plain makes it unlikely for everyone! Even for Mab, really. I find it hard to believe that she would spend the time looking into Harry's house that Lea did (she's kinda busy running an empire at war, you know?), so the idea that she discovered the existence of the flaw while Bob and Harry were working on LC is ludicrous to me (plus, it's one thing to watch someone while they sleep, another to watch an active wizard when he's wizarding and not be noticed by his supernatural senses).

But we know it happened; someone did fix Little Chicago, so the question becomes, who is the most likely to overcome that list of hurdles? And I still say the Gatekeeper has better means and opportunity than Mab does.

if forsight is the only thing rashid has that puts him on the list one could argue it was odin keeping an eye on his next 'apprentice' as he obviously has had his eye on harry awhile.

[...]

wanted to add, odin as kringle knows of all human deeds and misdeeds so its possible he knew abot it

It's not just foresight, it's interest. The Gatekeeper made sure to involve himself in the situation from the very first moment, and Odin, to put it simply, didn't show a whisker. At the same time, from the Doylist perspective, for Odin to be involved, the author must have made some mention of it. Like, say, the scene where The protagonist and his talking head sit down and discuss Rashid's motivation in getting involved in the case. That's not a clue bat, that's a freaking neon sign.

my main problem with it being any forsight or anything but a possible Novikov self-consistency principle time warp is any forsight gained would be in direct response to learning harry popped his head, meaning it 1000 times more likely to happen again (per odins explanation) so forsight being a factor is really iffy. how would they gain the required knowledge on LC without contaminating the timeline?

I'm afraid that the Novikov self-consistency principle has been proven in the book to not apply to prophecy / foresight. Examples include:

- The prophecy in Death Masks only included two alternatives: Harry dies, or the Knights all die. Neither of these happens.

- Abby replied to a question before he got a chance to make it, and her reply stopped him from making it. Meaning, the timeline where he asked the question never happened in the first place.

- The Gatekeeper used some sort of ability to determine Harry's chances near the end of Turn Coat. This ability gave two different results. If the ability is foresight / time-based (as the dialogue in that scene implies) then it saw two different futures.

Currently my internet at home is down. Will reply to the others during my lunch break.

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