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The Dresden Files => DF Spoilers => Topic started by: dspringer1 on August 08, 2017, 11:51:58 PM

Title: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: dspringer1 on August 08, 2017, 11:51:58 PM
In Proven Guilty, someone attacked Arctus Tor.  They killed a lot of fey.  They left traces of hellfire.  Key questions: 
*  Who attacked?
*  Why did they attack?


Second Key Question - why did they survive (if you believe they survived)?  Presumably Mab is fully capable of defending her realm and is a frigging nightmare.   Mother Winter is an order of magnitude more dangerous even without her staff and presumably could do the same thing.   Almost inconceivable that Mab could not "hold them off" long enough to summon ten thousand winter fey guardians to defend her castle.   Yet none of this happened -- or at least no obvious evidence in the books that this mega-battle occurred. 
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: dspringer1 on August 09, 2017, 12:05:58 AM
My personal theory -- which feels right, but there is little direct evidence - is as follows

* Black Council attacked Mab
* Black Council had "earned" a big favor from Mab at some point and used that favor to prevent Mab from directly attacking them -- including sending her people against them. 
* BC attacked Arctus Tor for several reasons, but the primary reason was to kill Mab -- an action triggered by their new knowledge that Maeve is nemfected.  Getting a nemfected individual as the new Mab would be a massive victory.    Secondary reason would be the free Lea, but this is a clearly secondary objective.   

As a result, the battle was primarily the BC forces against the normal defenders of Arctus Tor.  Mab provided no direction at all, which allowed her guards to fight against the attackers.   But her debt oath prevented her from summoning aid or taking the battle herself or calling in another queen to help.  Mab used the time her guards bought her to hide herself and Leah from any intruders --- which was also why Harry had to accidentally uncover Lea during his battle.  The other queens either did not know, or were prevented from acting for some reasons (nemfection or perhaps clearly defined roles of each queen). 


Indirect evidence.
*  Lea and mab were hiding
*  No forces of winter were summoned to defend the place
*  Mab did not kill the intruders
*  Mab discovered Maeve's nemfection soon afterwards
*  Nik freaked out (slightly) when he heard someone with hellfire attacked arctus tor
*  Major Red offensive was occurring.   Major red court attacks seem to be almost always tied to major black council operations.  Not exclusively, but the correlation is pretty high
*  Fey must fulfil obligations earned through debt
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: raidem on August 09, 2017, 12:43:08 AM
I do agree with the belief that mab had made agreements in which she partly, perhaps via constraining lea from hers, had to act against herself. 
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Griffyn612 on August 09, 2017, 02:17:15 AM
I think Nemesis arranged for the attack (via Maeve).  Maybe her cohorts were infected, or maybe they were just guns for hire that were willing to help Maeve unseat Mab for reasons (she's mad, she's a bitch, I'm more agreeable and will owe you favors, etc). 

Best case scenario, they free Lea and they take Mab out, replacing Mab with an infected agent who would be in charge of defending the Gates.

I think Mab was tied down with healing Lea, so the defense of Arctis Tor fell to her time travelin' Winter Knight from the future.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Arjan on August 09, 2017, 05:13:01 AM
Nemesis needed to get Lea before she could tell about Maeve. Mab wanted to know about her enemies so she made her fortress seem more vulnerable to invite an attack. They probably thought she was not there but she monitored everything.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Zaphodess on August 09, 2017, 07:20:13 AM
Nemesis needed to get Lea before she could tell about Maeve. Mab wanted to know about her enemies so she made her fortress seem more vulnerable to invite an attack. They probably thought she was not there but she monitored everything.
This, mostly. I'm not sure she deliberately made herself seem vulnerable. The attack could have been a surprise for her. But I guess freeing Lea before she can tell what she knew about Nemesis was a pretty good motive, one she could have anticipated. So it's possible.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Arjan on August 09, 2017, 11:11:13 AM
Quote
Not just the same color. Mab's eyes. The statue winked at me.

I think she was monitoring everything and deliberately not involving herself.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Rasins on August 09, 2017, 02:55:18 PM
We cannot forget that Time was messed with during this period.

We suspect Maeve of doing so, but don't know for sure.

Personally, I think Maeve Sped up time in and around AT for the battle.  By the time Harry and his invaders arrived, time was flowing normally.  When Harry and team were leaving, Maeve had to  slow it down again, to make up and bring balance back in the time-stream. 

Now why was AT attacked, I like the theory of releasing Leah before she spilled about Nemfecting Maeve, but really, I don't think we have enough information yet to really guess.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Quantus on August 09, 2017, 06:08:18 PM
The dot that Ive long wanted to connect was Marcone to Mab, via the nebulous events of PG.  There's got to be some reason she involved herself in SmF, and the best I have so far is the idea of a back-room deal between Vadderung and Mab, purely one asking help to defend his favorite pet project. 
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Zaphodess on August 10, 2017, 02:32:05 PM
The dot that Ive long wanted to connect was Marcone to Mab, via the nebulous events of PG.  There's got to be some reason she involved herself in SmF, and the best I have so far is the idea of a back-room deal between Vadderung and Mab, purely one asking help to defend his favorite pet project.
I'm rereading SmF right now and that's exactly what I was wondering about: Why did Mab bother? Ok, her Accords were broken. But so what, someone who can't defend themselves doesn't have any business joining the club. Marcone must have earned a favor from her in some way. It makes sense for him to collect a couple of solids before joining the Accords.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: dspringer1 on August 10, 2017, 03:05:22 PM
Quote
I'm rereading SmF right now and that's exactly what I was wondering about: Why did Mab bother? Ok, her Accords were broken. But so what, someone who can't defend themselves doesn't have any business joining the club.

What value is the accords if the only enforcement is the victim defending themselves?   That is the definition of a toothless agreement.   

The value in the accords is that community of supernatural agents enforces a code of conduct.  In other words, people who break the laws are punished.   Mab created the accord for a reason, so she has a good reason to act to punish those who break the accord.   

If that is not good enough, the second reason is just as good.   The accords are an agreement - a bargain.  Mab keeps her word and the agreement binds her to punish those who break it. That is winter law.

And if that is not good enough, the third reasons is helpful.   Mab is limited in her ability to act.  One of the "loopholes" in these limits are the bargains Mab makes.  By breaking the accords, Mab is freed to act.  She must certainly act in accordance to her obligations in the accords, but that still leaves her a lot of flexibility in how she chooses to act.  For example, in this example she gained additional benefits in training Harry, earned a debt from Marcone, enhanced her reputation, and blocked the actions of a denarian who was almost certainly involved in the assault on Arctus Tor.  That's a lot of benefit should would not have been able to achieve without the breach in the accords.     
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Quantus on August 10, 2017, 03:20:09 PM
What value is the accords if the only enforcement is the victim defending themselves?   That is the definition of a toothless agreement.   

The value in the accords is that community of supernatural agents enforces a code of conduct.  In other words, people who break the laws are punished.   Mab created the accord for a reason, so she has a good reason to act to punish those who break the accord.   

If that is not good enough, the second reason is just as good.   The accords are an agreement - a bargain.  Mab keeps her word and the agreement binds her to punish those who break it. That is winter law.

And if that is not good enough, the third reasons is helpful.   Mab is limited in her ability to act.  One of the "loopholes" in these limits are the bargains Mab makes.  By breaking the accords, Mab is freed to act.  She must certainly act in accordance to her obligations in the accords, but that still leaves her a lot of flexibility in how she chooses to act.  For example, in this example she gained additional benefits in training Harry, earned a debt from Marcone, enhanced her reputation, and blocked the actions of a denarian who was almost certainly involved in the assault on Arctus Tor.  That's a lot of benefit should would not have been able to achieve without the breach in the accords.     
That makes sense as an official story, but both Mab and Titania were moving on the Board before the initial kidnapping took place, so there has to be hidden motivation, no?
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: dspringer1 on August 10, 2017, 05:15:30 PM
These are all power players with intelligence operations and agendas.  I suspect they are certainly trying to maximize opportunities, anticipate threats and so forth -- and occasionally blindsided by the actions of a clever or lucky participant in the Great Game.   I am sure they work constantly to create conditions that allow them to act effectively when necessary. 
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Quantus on August 10, 2017, 05:43:22 PM
These are all power players with intelligence operations and agendas.  I suspect they are certainly trying to maximize opportunities, anticipate threats and so forth -- and occasionally blindsided by the actions of a clever or lucky participant in the Great Game.   I am sure they work constantly to create conditions that allow them to act effectively when necessary.
There's being responsive, and then there's being precognitive (which Im 99% 90% sure they are not).  This is at the point where you have to question if you have the Cause & Effect in the right order, methinks.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: dspringer1 on August 10, 2017, 10:31:36 PM
given all sides have access to some kind of knowledge of the future, I suspect it balances out
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: KurtinStGeorge on August 11, 2017, 08:41:04 AM
There's something really odd thing about the attack on Arctis Tor.

* Mab moves the bulk of her forces to the border with Summer, which pins Summer's forces in place to defend against a possible incursion from Winter which prevents Summer from retaliating against the Red Court for it's incursion into Faerie. (I'll get back to Mab later.)

* The Black Council appears to be in league with Outsiders.

* Somebody called up Outsiders to help the Red Court in it's battle with the White Council.  Presumably these rogue wizards are members of the Black Council or at least it's magical foot soldiers.

* Nemfected Maeve works to gain Lily's trust.  She helps Lily carry out a plan which allows Summer to strike a blow against the Red Court.  This plan come to fruition because of Harry's assault on Arctis Tor to rescue Molly.

* The Black Council attack on Arctis Tor preceded Harry's rescue mission and even though it killed off Mab's troll bodyguard, overall that attack failed.

I don't think the Black Council attack was an attempt to free Nemfected Lea or to take out Mab.  I don't think one denarian; even their best magic user, was enough to threaten Mab in her stronghold.  (I'm assuming Thorned Namshiel had help, but he was the strongest player on the enemy team.)  I think the attack was an attempt to do what Lily and Maeve later succeeded in doing, allow Summer to attack the Red Court.  Specifically, I think they wanted Mab to recall her forces from the border with Summer so the Seelie Court could attack the Reds.  I think the Black Council decided to nerf to Red Court so the war could drag on, and this would slowly degrade both the Reds and the White Council.  I don't think they wanted either side to have any easy victory.  Remember that in Dead Beat the White Council was in pretty bad shape.  I suspect the Black Council and it's Outsider (allies? overlords?) buddies saw the Red Court much as Nicodemus did, "They're parasites who are inconvenient in the short term, dangerous in the middle distance, and fatal to any long-range plan."

The alternative is say that Nemfected Maeve was willing to allow Lily and the Summer Court to have their moment and help the White Council in it's war with the Reds, all so Maeve could completely gain Lily's confidence so that one day Maeve could bring about the downfall of both Summer and Winter.  I suppose that's possible, but then it leaves the Black Council attack on Arctis Tor unexplained unless you really believe the BC thought they could storm Arctis Tor, which I find implausible.  However, either explanation; my nerf the Red Court or Maeve's palace intrigue hypothesis, tells us the Black Council had no problem stabbing the Red Court in the back when it suited them.  One more thing to consider is that nerfing the Red Court and helping Maeve worm her way into Lily confidence could have become duel goals to be carried out simultaneously.  It could have went down this way; the Black Council attack fails to get Mab to draw her forces back from the border so a new and improved plan succeeds and helps nemfected Maeve at same time.   

Just to make things more difficult to comprehend, there's a question no one seems to be asking and one that really needs to be answered in order to understand what actually happened.  Why did Mab order her forces to the border with Summer in the first place?  I used to think Mab made a deal not to attack the Red Court and help prevent Summer from doing so, but if this was the case, why did Maeve make it possible for Summer to attack the Reds?  Do you see the contradiction here?  Jim has been holding out some vital information which would allow us to untangle this puzzle.

P.S. You know, there's another explanation for why nemfected Maeve was willing to help Lily, but right now I'm too tired to type it out at the moment.  I'll do it tomorrow.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Zaphodess on August 11, 2017, 10:16:43 AM
Just to make things more difficult to comprehend, there's a question no one seems to be asking and one that really needs to be answered in order to understand what actually happened.  Why did Mab order her forces to the border with Summer in the first place?  I used to think Mab made a deal not to attack the Red Court and help prevent Summer from doing so, but if this was the case, why did Maeve make it possible for Summer to attack the Reds?  Do you see the contradiction here?  Jim has been holding out some vital information which would allow us to untangle this puzzle.
There's actually a pretty straightforward explanation for that one imo. She was biding her time and waiting for a better opportunity to strike back. And she needed more information about the various players. The Red Court provided a clear provocation and everyone expected the Faeries to strike back immediately. Including the RC probably. So Mab had good reason to assume it was a trap. And she didn't want Summer to fall for it either, because Nemesis is the biggest threat out there and the RC was obviously in league with it somehow (all these Outsiders).
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Griffyn612 on August 11, 2017, 11:47:08 AM
There's something really odd thing about the attack on Arctis Tor.

* Mab moves the bulk of her forces to the border with Summer, which pins Summer's forces in place to defend against a possible incursion from Winter which prevents Summer from retaliating against the Red Court for it's incursion into Faerie. (I'll get back to Mab later.)

* The Black Council appears to be in league with Outsiders.

* Somebody called up Outsiders to help the Red Court in it's battle with the White Council.  Presumably these rogue wizards are members of the Black Council or at least it's magical foot soldiers.

* Nemfected Maeve works to gain Lily's trust.  She helps Lily carry out a plan which allows Summer to strike a blow against the Red Court.  This plan come to fruition because of Harry's assault on Arctis Tor to rescue Molly.

* The Black Council attack on Arctis Tor preceded Harry's rescue mission and even though it killed off Mab's troll bodyguard, overall that attack failed.

I don't think the Black Council attack was an attempt to free Nemfected Lea or to take out Mab.  I don't think one denarian; even their best magic user, was enough to threaten Mab in her stronghold.  (I'm assuming Thorned Namshiel had help, but he was the strongest player on the enemy team.)  I think the attack was an attempt to do what Lily and Maeve later succeeded in doing, allow Summer to attack the Red Court.  Specifically, I think they wanted Mab to recall her forces from the border with Summer so the Seelie Court could attack the Reds.  I think the Black Council decided to nerf to Red Court so the war could drag on, and this would slowly degrade both the Reds and the White Council.  I don't think they wanted either side to have any easy victory.  Remember that in Dead Beat the White Council was in pretty bad shape.  I suspect the Black Council and it's Outsider (allies? overlords?) buddies saw the Red Court much as Nicodemus did, "They're parasites who are inconvenient in the short term, dangerous in the middle distance, and fatal to any long-range plan."

The alternative is say that Nemfected Maeve was willing to allow Lily and the Summer Court to have their moment and help the White Council in it's war with the Reds, all so Maeve could completely gain Lily's confidence so that one day Maeve could bring about the downfall of both Summer and Winter.  I suppose that's possible, but then it leaves the Black Council attack on Arctis Tor unexplained unless you really believe the BC thought they could storm Arctis Tor, which I find implausible.  However, either explanation; my nerf the Red Court or Maeve's palace intrigue hypothesis, tells us the Black Council had no problem stabbing the Red Court in the back when it suited them.  One more thing to consider is that nerfing the Red Court and helping Maeve worm her way into Lily confidence could have become duel goals to be carried out simultaneously.  It could have went down this way; the Black Council attack fails to get Mab to draw her forces back from the border so a new and improved plan succeeds and helps nemfected Maeve at same time.   

Just to make things more difficult to comprehend, there's a question no one seems to be asking and one that really needs to be answered in order to understand what actually happened.  Why did Mab order her forces to the border with Summer in the first place?  I used to think Mab made a deal not to attack the Red Court and help prevent Summer from doing so, but if this was the case, why did Maeve make it possible for Summer to attack the Reds?  Do you see the contradiction here?  Jim has been holding out some vital information which would allow us to untangle this puzzle.

P.S. You know, there's another explanation for why nemfected Maeve was willing to help Lily, but right now I'm too tired to type it out at the moment.  I'll do it tomorrow.
See if this theory helps.

The Dead Beat events were a three-pronged end-game attack: Reds take out the Council, Maeve helps an attack on AT, and Cowl tries to ascend.

When Harry accidentally summons Mab to the lake in DB, Maeve & Co. take action.  Maeve slows down time in AT (like she did in PG), causing the minutes Harry and Mab speak on Earth to be hours in AT.  They attempt to free Lea, and destroy/damage the Winter wellspring in the process, thus weakening the defenders of the Gates.

After their conversation, Mab returns to find AT under assault.  Even worse, she realizes that Maeve is helping, and therefore compromised.

Mab successfully repels the attackers, but realizes she's almost lost the game because she's now down three key pieces: her Lady, her Handmaiden, and her Knight.  She's alone, her home has been attacked, and her daughter has been subverted by the enemy.

So what does she do?

She puts Winter on lockdown.

The borders are defended against any further intrusions.  The offense offered by the Ramps (freely raiding through Fairie, almost as if they knew there'd be no reprisal) can wait.  She has to concentrate on healing Lea, while suppressing her rage at Maeve's situation.

This explains why there was no retaliation against the Ramps between DB and PG, why Mab would be inactive for the PG fight at AT and would want to be alone, and how Mab finds out about Maeve.

In this light, the plot of PG becomes an unintended second raid on Arctis Tor using a pawn piece (Harry) that Mab wouldn't strike down (because she wants his Starborn power).  It puts Harry there, where his godmother is being held.  Scarecrow makes sure Harry strikes at the right place to weaken the bonds holding her, while simultaneously revealing her presence to him.  (Although no-one thought he'd use Summer fire on the wellspring)

Had her treatment not progressed as far as it had, Nemesis could have promised him the world in return for freeing her, and he wouldn't have known who he was dealing with. 

Then Mab would have been on the rooftop alone against an infected Lea and a misinformed Harry.  She might have been forced to kill Lea, which would weaken her hold on Harry, and force her hand to try other, more desperate things to possess the starborn power.

In addition, the attack on the wellspring to free Lea (even without Summer fire) likely would have triggered the return of the defenders, thus completing the secondary part of the mission: convincing Lily that Maeve is on the side of good.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Arjan on August 11, 2017, 03:42:59 PM
Actually from Maeves point of view gaining Lilly's trust was valuable but helping Harry also gave her another shot at freeing Lea after the previous attack failed.

The only reason her second attempt failed was that Lea already had enough control to tell Harry not to free her.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Kindler on August 15, 2017, 04:40:43 PM
Mab might have thought that it was Summer who had infected Lea, and responded with troop posturing to see what they would do. I don't think the attack on Arctis Tor was repulsed by Mab personally; I think she was forced to stay with Lea, because she was close to being cured. Eldest Fetch and Company may have been the ones who actually defeated the attack, showing up with Molly and convincing the raiders to run after the Ogres softened them up.

I can't help but think that Mab left Arctis Tor virtually undefended as bait.

I've been assuming that Mab found out about Maeve from the attack. What I don't understand is why Mab let her remain free after figuring it out. I get that she didn't want to kill her, but there are other options.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Rasins on August 15, 2017, 05:32:16 PM
I find it hard to believe that Mab would think that Summer would work with Outsiders.  I think she knows better.

I do think that leaving AT open to attack.  I think she was trying to drawing other infected out into the open, and it worked.

Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Quantus on August 15, 2017, 05:43:29 PM
I find it hard to believe that Mab would think that Summer would work with Outsiders.  I think she knows better.
Technically it happened already, in SK.  From a coldly tactical standpoint she cant count on her allies Motivations if the Enemy can just Replace them. 
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Rasins on August 15, 2017, 06:11:33 PM
Technically it happened already, in SK.  From a coldly tactical standpoint she cant count on her allies Motivations if the Enemy can just Replace them.

I'm distinguishing between working with, and being nemfected.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Quantus on August 15, 2017, 06:58:50 PM
I'm distinguishing between working with, and being nemfected.
I still dont think it matters from the POV of Mab's tactical assessment.  The difference between a Coconspirator and a Possessed Puppet makes no difference, Both are equal threats.  She already knows that Nemesis infiltrated the Summer royalty, and has no way to ascertain how far that Nemfection Spread.  Once that happened she can no longer Plan based on what Summer /would' do, only what they Can Do, apparently up to and including Lying.


Im not sure there actually is much of a difference; Maeve was both.  The only difference it makes is whether or not they're Willing to be cured, no?
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Rasins on August 16, 2017, 04:59:29 PM
Q - that's true, and I think that's pretty much what Mab does most of the time anyway. 
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: prince lotore on August 16, 2017, 06:50:21 PM
I think Mabs reaction to the attack can be summed up with this gladiator quote
Falco:
I have been told of a certain sea snake which has a very unusual method of attracting its prey. It will lie at the bottom of the ocean as if wounded. Then its enemies will approach, and yet it will lie quite still. And then its enemies will take little bites of it, and yet it remains still.

Commodus:
So, we will lie still, and let our enemies come to us and nibble.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Rasins on August 16, 2017, 07:25:51 PM
I think Mabs reaction to the attack can be summed up with this gladiator quote
Falco:
I have been told of a certain sea snake which has a very unusual method of attracting its prey. It will lie at the bottom of the ocean as if wounded. Then its enemies will approach, and yet it will lie quite still. And then its enemies will take little bites of it, and yet it remains still.

Commodus:
So, we will lie still, and let our enemies come to us and nibble.

I don't think she let's them nibble.  I think some do nibble (Nick), but that isn't because Mab is luring him in, it's just because some nibble.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Kindler on August 17, 2017, 06:38:49 PM
I'm distinguishing between working with, and being nemfected.

To clarify, I think Mab thought that Summer might have been infected.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Rasins on August 18, 2017, 05:01:51 PM
To clarify, I think Mab thought that Summer might have been infected.

Considering Aurora, she had a point.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: dspringer1 on August 30, 2017, 11:10:23 PM
She may have felt Titania was infected, but that does not explain why she piled everyone in winter on the border of summer.   That action effectively prevented either from participating in the fighting. 

Mab could have achieved the same objective by having summer and winter bring equal forces to the battlefield while still keeping back a substantial force to defend winter.   Winter is still protected from betrayal by summer, but she also targets the red court which attacked her borders -- and is clearly allied with outsiders.    Yet she did not do this.  She had some clear reason to keep summer and winter out of the fighting.  A reason important enough that she was willing to let the white council fall. 

Yet this compelling reason did not prevent her from standing by while Dresden brough summer fire to the heart of winter.  No way that little butterfly of summer power was missed by Mab.    Which had a huge effect on her borders. 

Which means she
a) was testing summer's reaction
b) was compelled to do what she did (block summer and winter from going to war) by some promise or debt. 
c) she was testing Maeve

"a" is a pretty weak reason as it is a pretty unreliable test.  Even if summer attacked winter in full force, it would not accomplish much.  So a corrupted winter would do little.   "C" is a possibility especially as Small Favor was after this attack, but what about Maeve's behavior would reveal she was infected to Mab.  After all, if Mab was insane, then Maeve's actions would have been loyal to Winter. 

B is the easiest explanation - but that is still a pretty big favor. 
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Kindler on August 31, 2017, 06:41:11 PM
She may have felt Titania was infected, but that does not explain why she piled everyone in winter on the border of summer.   That action effectively prevented either from participating in the fighting. 

Mab could have achieved the same objective by having summer and winter bring equal forces to the battlefield while still keeping back a substantial force to defend winter.   Winter is still protected from betrayal by summer, but she also targets the red court which attacked her borders -- and is clearly allied with outsiders.    Yet she did not do this.  She had some clear reason to keep summer and winter out of the fighting.  A reason important enough that she was willing to let the white council fall. 

Yet this compelling reason did not prevent her from standing by while Dresden brough summer fire to the heart of winter.  No way that little butterfly of summer power was missed by Mab.    Which had a huge effect on her borders. 

Which means she
a) was testing summer's reaction
b) was compelled to do what she did (block summer and winter from going to war) by some promise or debt. 
c) she was testing Maeve

"a" is a pretty weak reason as it is a pretty unreliable test.  Even if summer attacked winter in full force, it would not accomplish much.  So a corrupted winter would do little.   "C" is a possibility especially as Small Favor was after this attack, but what about Maeve's behavior would reveal she was infected to Mab.  After all, if Mab was insane, then Maeve's actions would have been loyal to Winter. 

B is the easiest explanation - but that is still a pretty big favor.

Not trying to shore up my failing hypothesis here, but what if it was also about the White Council traitor? At the end of the book, Ebenezer points out that the Reds were able to hit the White Council (coinciding right around the attack on Arctis Tor) at their Baby Warden camp, presumably through the NeverNever. He mentions that only a handful of people knew where it was. It might've been motivated by an attempt to narrow down the suspect pool, or confirm an existing one, and could've been part of an agreement between Mab and the Gatekeeper.

Note, it's only that Ebenezer fails to consider the paperwork that Peabody wasn't on the list; he clearly did know everything, he was just beneath notice, like an evil Ehren.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: jonas on August 31, 2017, 11:18:45 PM
We cannot forget that Time was messed with during this period.

We suspect Maeve of doing so, but don't know for sure.

Personally, I think Maeve Sped up time in and around AT for the battle.  By the time Harry and his invaders arrived, time was flowing normally.  When Harry and team were leaving, Maeve had to  slow it down again, to make up and bring balance back in the time-stream. 

Now why was AT attacked, I like the theory of releasing Leah before she spilled about Nemfecting Maeve, but really, I don't think we have enough information yet to really guess.
The only idea I ever thought of was after Nic mentioned survival instincts in SmF, it wanted to survive Lea, and to escape becoming a permanent icesicle in the garden. It was an assault to facilitate an escape measure for a captured vip?
Of course I wonder about the time travel thingy in many wag's, but what I really wonder is if Mab knew Maeve was infected because MAB is the one who slowed time after winter withdrew to thwart N in the red court war. which she previously was direly insulted by them but for some reason unable to reply directly in DB, so it has a measure of balancing the scales to allow them to be attacked(plus they had outsiders, totally in her line of responsibility). So she thwarts N and it gets back to her Maeve is claiming credit instead.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Rasins on September 01, 2017, 04:02:39 PM
It makes more sense for Maeve to have messed with time, this being the first major clue (that we know of) that Maeve was Nemfected, from Mab's perspective.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: jonas on September 01, 2017, 07:50:29 PM
It makes more sense for Maeve to have messed with time, this being the first major clue (that we know of) that Maeve was Nemfected, from Mab's perspective.
Only thinking about what slowing time actually achieved against the reds and their outsider allies, I'm not sure why that would make Maeve suspect? Mab and Aurora seem to understand both must move in tandem and how to manipulate that fact for more indirect attacks on their mutual enemies. Where as Maeve is bungling in the dark most, if not all of the time. To put it bluntly, it was too good of a move on the board for it to be her idea.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Rasins on September 02, 2017, 12:58:34 AM
Only thinking about what slowing time actually achieved against the reds and their outsider allies, I'm not sure why that would make Maeve suspect? Mab and Aurora seem to understand both must move in tandem and how to manipulate that fact for more indirect attacks on their mutual enemies. Where as Maeve is bungling in the dark most, if not all of the time. To put it bluntly, it was too good of a move on the board for it to be her idea.

But not for Nemesis.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: jonas on September 02, 2017, 02:10:45 AM
But not for Nemesis.
It harmed N far more than helped either way, if Mab did it she one upped N, If maeve did it then that's what caught Mab's attention from maeve, working time against her in correlation with summer forces.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Rasins on September 02, 2017, 02:26:04 AM
It harmed N far more than helped either way, if Mab did it she one upped N, If maeve did it then that's what caught Mab's attention from maeve, working time against her in correlation with summer forces.

Absolutely.  Meaning that Nemesis made an error.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Arjan on September 02, 2017, 05:27:59 AM
Absolutely.  Meaning that Nemesis made an error.
Which did not matter that much because if Lea would tell Mab anyway if Nemesis did not get her out. This was a last desperate attempt to keep her main asset hidden and it failed.

Lea running to Mab was a gamechanger.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: jonas on September 03, 2017, 04:25:21 PM
Which did not matter that much because if Lea would tell Mab anyway if Nemesis did not get her out. This was a last desperate attempt to keep her main asset hidden and it failed.

Lea running to Mab was a gamechanger.
Lea didn't run to Mab, she attempted to overthrow her.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Griffyn612 on September 03, 2017, 04:50:53 PM
Lea didn't run to Mab, she attempted to overthrow her.
Somewhere it's said that Lea turned herself in to Mab. 
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: jonas on September 03, 2017, 04:54:13 PM
Somewhere it's said that Lea turned herself in to Mab.
Mmm? Going purely off of what Mab says in DB and Lea says when Harry see's her next(in CH?) it's heavily implied that Lea confronted Mab with the intention of defying her outright.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Griffyn612 on September 03, 2017, 04:58:23 PM
Mmm? Going purely off of what Mab says in DB and Lea says when Harry see's her next(in CH?) it's heavily implied that Lea confronted Mab with the intention of defying her outright.
That's one interpretation.  Another is that Lea sought to circumnavigate the normal chain of command, thus inadvertently offending Mab and challenging her authority.

But somewhere, in one of the books or in a WoJ, it's said that she turned herself over to Mab to be healed.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: jonas on September 03, 2017, 05:00:11 PM
That's one interpretation.  Another is that Lea sought to circumnavigate the normal chain of command, thus inadvertently offending Mab and challenging her authority.

But somewhere, in one of the books or in a WoJ, it's said that she turned herself over to Mab to be healed.
Would have to be a woj.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Griffyn612 on September 03, 2017, 05:36:15 PM
Would have to be a woj.
I'm 80% certain it's in one of the books, but I don't know which one.  I had trouble finding it previously, but others have done so.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Arjan on September 03, 2017, 06:01:41 PM
It is actually in changes:

Quote
Susan arched an eyebrow and looked from me to my godmother. "You have no shame about it at all, do you?"
"Shame, child, is for those who fail to live up to the ideal of what they believe they should
be." She waved her hand. "It was shame that drove me to my queen, to beseech her aid." Her long, delicate fingers idly moved to the streaks of white in her otherwise flawless red tresses.

"But she showed me the way back to myself, through exquisite pain, and now I am here to
watch over my dear godson--and the rest of you, as long as it is quite convenient."
"Spooky death Sidhe lady," Molly said. "Now upgraded to spooky,  crazy death Sidhe lady."
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: jonas on September 03, 2017, 07:16:42 PM
It is actually in changes:
Context implied in the greater page?
Quote
"For what reason have you detained her?"
"Because I do not tolerate challenges to my authority,"... "Certain event's had convinced your Godmother she was no longer bound by my word and will..."
Guess Mab's a liar now ??? unless we can agree it's far most likely that she did both, confronted Mab and like Sith tried to, managed to break free enough to let her own desire, felt through shame be known.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Arjan on September 03, 2017, 08:17:49 PM
Context implied in the greater page? Guess Mab's a liar now ??? unless we can agree it's far most likely that she did both, confronted Mab and like Sith tried to, managed to break free enough to let her own desire, felt through shame be known.
Mab did not say who challenged her authority  :)

From Proven Guilty:
Quote
“Lea,” I said. “What has happened to you? How long have you been a Sidhe-sicle?”
Some of the strength seemed to ebb from her, and she suddenly seemed exhausted. “I grew too
arrogant with the power I held. I thought I could overcome what stalks us all. Foolish. Milady Queen Mab taught me the error of my ways.”
“She’s had you locked up in your own private iceberg for more than a year?” I shook my head. “Godmother, you look like you fell out of a crazy tree and hit every branch on the way down.”
With hindsight I translate "What stalks us all" as Nemesis. Lea tried to overcome it herself but failed. Ashamed she went to her queen.

Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: jonas on September 03, 2017, 10:16:21 PM
Mab did not say who challenged her authority  :)

From Proven Guilty:With hindsight I translate "What stalks us all" as Nemesis. Lea tried to overcome it herself but failed. Ashamed she went to her queen.
No, it says she thought she didn't have to answer to her, that's challenging authority, trust me, I know. nice theory though, look it even has a premise to base an inference :)
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: KurtinStGeorge on September 04, 2017, 01:00:10 AM
A long time ago I posted there was another reason Maeve may have been willing to help Lily with her plan.  It's possible Maeve didn't expect Harry to survive his second encounter with Eldest Fetch.  She may have felt that that working with Lily was enough to start gaining Lily's trust even if Harry died in the attempt.  After all, Lily knew she was gambling with Harry and his companions lives when she gave him access to Summer Fire without telling him about it.  Plus, we have no way of knowing if Lily told Maeve she was giving Harry access to Summer Fire.  If Maeve wasn't given that information she might not have given Harry much of a chance to succeed.  However, when Harry did win through Maeve was forced to carry out the rest plan and slow the flow of time around Arctis Tor, otherwise her plan to subvert Lily would have died right then and there. 
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Arjan on September 04, 2017, 05:08:22 AM
No, it says she thought she didn't have to answer to her, that's challenging authority, trust me, I know. nice theory though, look it even has a premise to base an inference :)
I tend to give more weight to Lea's words here because Lea is Harry's godmother and has less to hide and more to teach and very important her words are less ambivalent.

By not naming who did challenge her authority she left it to Harry to make assumptions and that is always dangerous. The first assumption might very well be the wrong one.

Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Griffyn612 on September 04, 2017, 01:21:17 PM
I have no doubt Mab was referring to Lea when she said "she" challenged her authority.  But a challenge to Mab's authority does not require open rebellion.  Lea attempting to act without Mab's consent is a challenge of her authority.  Lea acting in Mab's interest in a way Mab wouldn't approve of is a challenge of her authority.

The text tells us Lea tried to do something against an enemy too powerful for her, she turned herself in to Mab, and Mab helped heal her while reasserting her authority over such things.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Arjan on September 04, 2017, 03:31:48 PM
Man wants to show Harry her strength not her weaknesses. She is not going to tel him "My handmaiden is ill and I am trying to cure her"

So she said something that suggests something else.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Rasins on September 06, 2017, 04:21:39 PM
Considering Leah's manic behavior while in Winter's wellspring, I can totally see her actively challenging Mab's authority, then realizing she can't control her Nemfection asking Mab to help cure her.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Froklsnt on September 20, 2017, 06:34:14 PM
I have no doubt Mab was referring to Lea when she said "she" challenged her authority.  But a challenge to Mab's authority does not require open rebellion.  Lea attempting to act without Mab's consent is a challenge of her authority.  Lea acting in Mab's interest in a way Mab wouldn't approve of is a challenge of her authority.

The text tells us Lea tried to do something against an enemy too powerful for her, she turned herself in to Mab, and Mab helped heal her while reasserting her authority over such things.

I think Griffyn612 has the right idea. What I want to think about further is what Arjan brought up, what did Lea mean by "what stalks us all."

With hindsight I translate "What stalks us all" as Nemesis. Lea tried to overcome it herself but failed. Ashamed she went to her queen.

This reading makes sense to me, and strikes me as the most obvious interpretation. Lea tried to struggle against Nemesis on her own, but was unable to win the fight without help. But the struggle alone doesn't seem like the offense that Mab spoke of in Changes. So what was the action that Nemesis was attempting to cause Lea to perform? A simple, small action of verbal challenge, a simple questioning of Mab's orders would probably be enough to fit the bill, that's most likely.

But what if we think bigger? What if "I thought I could overcome what stalks us all" refers to death? That phrase is certainly a common motif of death. And the goal of vanquishing death is already held by Cowl (according to Kumori anyway), who provided the athame to Lea via Bianca. Lea would be in a position to potentially make some type of move against Mother Winter, who is the closest personification of "death" in the DV so far. And that would certainly qualify as a challenges to Mab's authority, an action against Mab's word and will. If Lea recovered herself and broke down in shame before she actually took an action, then everything fits.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Arjan on September 20, 2017, 08:33:49 PM
I think Griffyn612 has the right idea. What I want to think about further is what Arjan brought up, what did Lea mean by "what stalks us all."

This reading makes sense to me, and strikes me as the most obvious interpretation. Lea tried to struggle against Nemesis on her own, but was unable to win the fight without help. But the struggle alone doesn't seem like the offense that Mab spoke of in Changes. So what was the action that Nemesis was attempting to cause Lea to perform? A simple, small action of verbal challenge, a simple questioning of Mab's orders would probably be enough to fit the bill, that's most likely.

But what if we think bigger? What if "I thought I could overcome what stalks us all" refers to death? That phrase is certainly a common motif of death. And the goal of vanquishing death is already held by Cowl (according to Kumori anyway), who provided the athame to Lea via Bianca. Lea would be in a position to potentially make some type of move against Mother Winter, who is the closest personification of "death" in the DV so far. And that would certainly qualify as a challenges to Mab's authority, an action against Mab's word and will. If Lea recovered herself and broke down in shame before she actually took an action, then everything fits.
You can make a distinction between what Lea did on her own and what Lea did under influence of Nemesis but one does not have to. Everything Lea did under influence of Nemesis she still did and some of that was a chalenge of Mab's authority.

Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Froklsnt on September 20, 2017, 10:46:24 PM
You can make a distinction between what Lea did on her own and what Lea did under influence of Nemesis but one does not have to. Everything Lea did under influence of Nemesis she still did and some of that was a chalenge of Mab's authority.

I agree, it remains unclear how much being Nfected is an usurpation of a being's will versus a more subtle influence on one's thoughts and actions. Though, by Mr. Sunshine's rules, both are equally problematic.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: raidem on September 22, 2017, 01:46:05 AM
I don't think lea was referring to death, at least in the natural sense.  It is very much part of this world, this reality.

The outsiders, per woj, come from a universe or reality outside of our own and it is the existence and/or expansion of our universe that is causing their reality problems.  So to solve it, they got to sabotage ours.  To me the ultimate danger that stalks us is an attempt by outsiders to destroy our reality.  Somehow, someway lea thought she could do something on some minute level.

We also have Woj that mab truly believed she did the best thing in placing lea within winter's well.  The Woj sounded kinda ominous in that there will be some unintended consequence to this act.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Griffyn612 on September 22, 2017, 02:01:47 AM
I don't think lea was referring to death, at least in the natural sense.  It is very much part of this world, this reality.

The outsiders, per woj, come from a universe or reality outside of our own and it is the existence and/or expansion of our universe that is causing their reality problems.  So to solve it, they got to sabotage ours.  To me the ultimate danger that stalks us is an attempt by outsiders to destroy our reality.  Somehow, someway lea thought she could do something on some minute level.

We also have Woj that mab truly believed she did the best thing in placing lea within winter's well.  The Woj sounded kinda ominous in that there will be some unintended consequence to this act.
The most likely identities for "that which stalks us all" are death, time, Nemesis, the persistent threat from the Outsiders, or a cycle of inescapable events (inevitability).

Considering that all of those could be combined into one, I'd say it's all of them.  Nemesis and the rest of the Outsiders present a persistent and inevitable threat to life itself.

In other words, The End.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: jonas on September 22, 2017, 08:07:58 AM
The most likely identities for "that which stalks us all" are death, time, Nemesis, the persistent threat from the Outsiders, or a cycle of inescapable events (inevitability).
I like you :)

Quote
Considering that all of those could be combined into one, I'd say it's all of them.  Nemesis and the rest of the Outsiders present a persistent and inevitable threat to life itself.

In other words, The End.
I prefer to stick to Nemesis as The Accuser, Enemy. She's out to judge life except were that judgement has been superseded by judgement from an afterlife or associated diety.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: wardenferry419 on September 22, 2017, 08:56:06 AM
The most likely identities for "that which stalks us all" are death, time, Nemesis, the persistent threat from the Outsiders, or a cycle of inescapable events (inevitability).

Considering that all of those could be combined into one, I'd say it's all of them.  Nemesis and the rest of the Outsiders present a persistent and inevitable threat to life itself.

In other words, The End.
Could Love be considered as one other option of "that which stalks us all." For a creature like Lea, it is both ally and enemy.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Froklsnt on September 22, 2017, 12:04:17 PM
The most likely identities for "that which stalks us all" are death, time, Nemesis, the persistent threat from the Outsiders, or a cycle of inescapable events (inevitability).

Considering that all of those could be combined into one, I'd say it's all of them.  Nemesis and the rest of the Outsiders present a persistent and inevitable threat to life itself.

In other words, The End.

Or put another way, Empty Night?
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: raidem on September 22, 2017, 03:41:46 PM
Agreed, but I don't see it as natural death or death separate from the cataclysmic threat that the Outsiders pose.
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Rasins on September 25, 2017, 03:55:02 PM
I think Griffyn612 has the right idea. What I want to think about further is what Arjan brought up, what did Lea mean by "what stalks us all."

This reading makes sense to me, and strikes me as the most obvious interpretation. Lea tried to struggle against Nemesis on her own, but was unable to win the fight without help. But the struggle alone doesn't seem like the offense that Mab spoke of in Changes. So what was the action that Nemesis was attempting to cause Lea to perform? A simple, small action of verbal challenge, a simple questioning of Mab's orders would probably be enough to fit the bill, that's most likely.

But what if we think bigger? What if "I thought I could overcome what stalks us all" refers to death? That phrase is certainly a common motif of death.
And the goal of vanquishing death is already held by Cowl (according to Kumori anyway), who provided the athame to Lea via Bianca. Lea would be in a position to potentially make some type of move against Mother Winter, who is the closest personification of "death" in the DV so far. And that would certainly qualify as a challenges to Mab's authority, an action against Mab's word and will. If Lea recovered herself and broke down in shame before she actually took an action, then everything fits.

In thinking about this, I can totally see either Nemesis OR Death being what Mab is referring to.

However there is one, slightly less obvious answer.  When you think about Jim and his upbringing, he is a child of the 80's and 90's.

Therefore it's entirely possible that he's referring to ....

(click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Why Attack Arctus Tor?
Post by: Froklsnt on September 25, 2017, 06:21:23 PM
Therefore it's entirely possible that he's referring to ....
And their relentless pursuit of late fees.

No, anything but that!

More seriously though, I was just being cute before when I said Griffyn612's summary of "what stalks us all" reminded me of "Empty Night."  But as I think about it, I think that may be the honest correct answer, the summary of all the candidates proposed. "Empty night" is the favorite curse of the WCV, but it had one other very prominent appearance, on the lips of none other than Mother Summer:

Quote from: Cold Days - Chapter 32
"Ah, yes. I see," Mother Summer said. "So many new futures unwinding."
"Too many bright ones," Mother Winter said sullenly.
"Even you must think better that than empty night."
Mother Winter spit to one side.

This conversation was brought on by Harry learning of Nemesis. This change brought on the possibly many bright possible futures, and apparently was a blow against "empty night" coming to pass.  We also have this quote from Mab, in CH:

Quote from: Changes - Chapter 30
"I am Mab. The stars will rain from the sky before Mab fulfills not her word."

It isn't a big leap to say that Mab has given her word to protect our reality from Outsiders. The consequence of failing that, an Outsider invasion, would put out the stars in the sky, unmake our existence as we know it. That is the known goal of Nemesis, bringing on this "empty night." That phrase is shorthand for the horrible apocalypse that would befall us if Mab failed to keep her word and safeguard reality.

So, when Lea said  “I grew too arrogant with the power I held. I thought I could overcome what stalks us all. Foolish." she means she thought she could prevent empty night all on her own. I had been playing with the idea that perhaps Lea attempted something more overtly pro-outsider, but I think I've been talked out of that. Nemesis doesn't seem to work that way, anyway. It seems more to encourage a being to take their desires further than is rational, and to allow them to overcome foundational rules, such as a fae lying. Lea has shown several times that she has the impulse to try and overcome Mab, to "take the lead." Their relationship is one of slightly mismatched rivals. She even goes into detail on the topic in GS:

Quote from: Ghost Story - Chapter 30
"In all of winter, I am second in power only to Mab. Which she has allowed because I have incurred with it proportionate obligation to her. She is my dearest enemy, but even I do not owe Mab so much..."
My godmother was what she was, a being of violence, deceit and a thirst for power... and believe me, if Lea had been the high priestess of murder, blood lust, scheming and manipulation, then Mab was the goddess my godmother worshiped. Come to think of it, that was probably an apt description of their relationship.

Lea's statement could be read that she tried to overcome Nemesis on her own. Or a simple overstepping of bounds, speaking out of turn or making a decision without consulting Mab first. It could also mean she interfered beyond her station in the war with the Outsiders. Maybe even an action that might have eventually led to Mab's ouster, similar to Maeve's goals.  But unlike Maeve, she became self-conscious of the change within herself, and recognized it as a problem, perhaps she even knew it was Nemesis. And so she went to Mab.