Since Mab is a very calculating person, I wondered why she felt the need to have twin daughters of her own (Maeve & Sarissa), given that she’s not really the maternal type. We have WoJ that Mab & Titania ascended their thrones around 1066, & have been in power since. I’m not sure how old Aurora was, but we have a different WoJ that Maeve (& Sarissa) were born in the 1700s (apparently their father was a random Austrian musician). This means that there must’ve been a few Winter Ladies between 1066 & the 1700s, & we know there have been 2 in the series so far.

My WAG here is that the Outsider plots were effective at targeting the Winter Ladies, including a couple who were likely disastrous - as a result, Mab decides the best way to deal with this is to birth a Lady (& a spare) herself to control the quality & succession of the mantle. This of course ultimately backfires with Maeve since Mab had birthed her for a purpose & was not capable of treating her as a daughter - she seems to be trying to rectify that mistake with Sarissa before Maeve nips that plan off (I do think this will lead to Mab & Titania finally talking again).

@toodeep

1. Did the hobs actually kill anyone in the train station? All we know is that they were sent to attack the Archive’s train. I do think it’s possible that Nfected Maeve sent the hobs.

2. Note what Kincaid tells Harry in Changes when Harry seeks Ivy’s help in finding Maggie Jr - Ivy literally cannot help Harry. This leads me to believe that Ivy only has limited free will at best - kind of like the Summer or Winter Knight (we see what happens to Harry when he says to screw Winter Law in CD).

@morriswalters
Absolutely agree that Maeve was setting Mab up to look insane, doesn’t mean Mab can’t take advantage of it when it suits her purpose.

Well Nic attacks Marcone before a Mab picks Harry which leads me to think that his plan was adaptable to whoever the mediator was.

Also Marcone has Gard save Harry in DB in a dark alleyway behind Bock’s place - how would Titania know about this & be angry enough to kill Marcone. I think it makes more sense that she just wants to kill Harry & damn the consequences (if that includes Marcone dying then so be it, she’s not feeling terribly rational for a few years).

I would argue that Nic only attacked Marcone because he was likely the weakest Signatory in order to test the Accords - he could’ve attacked Marcone a couple of years earlier & gotten away with it scot free since no one else cared about Marcone the Chicago gangster.

Just read the short story, here are some thoughts:

Maggie Sr & Morgan
Here is my WAG - after non-Starborn Thomas’ birth, Maggie realized what a bastard Raith Sr really is (including his colluding with Outsiders). Using the true love for her son, she was able to break Raith’s hold over her - she knew she had to escape because of what Raith Sr & his co-conspirators were planning (likely to birth a Starborn to control the Outsiders & create a new world order).

Once she escaped, Maggie went to the WC (through intermediaries - likely her old associate Justin) to inform them of Raith’s plot. I have other theories about Justin & Maggie but will focus on Morgan for now.

Morgan agrees to hear Maggie out because he has a good relationship with her dad, the Blackstaff. Maggie tells Morgan about Nemesis & the Outsiders & how Raith is planning to use them for his own ends. Morgan takes this to the Senior Council who dismiss it - they know about Nemesis & the Outsiders but are basking in a post-Kemmler world (he only died a decade ago) - they are not eager to start a war with the White Court & it’s ‘invincible’ king.

Morgan feels they are underestimating this new threat. Maggie is marked for death by the WC & Raith’s cohort but Morgan knows that she is necessary to fight Raith’s conspiracy - so he doesn’t quite hunt her & even helps her out when he can. Morgan believes Maggie has changed & is really trying to right her past wrongs - he grows to like her a person & in time agrees to look out for Harry if she is not around.

Nfecting mortals
I had a thought after reading this story - I’ve always been in the camp that mortals can’t be Nfected since they have free will, however what if Nemesis gives mortals what they most seek - an immortality of sorts? Kumori basically tells Dresden that she & Cowl want to end death in DB, & Cowl is mysteriously able to survive a screwed up Darkhallow fairly intact.
So what if Nfected mortals can’t die? If Justin were Nfected, maybe he’s still alive somewhere pulling strings. I do not believe that Justin is Cowl or that Peabody was Nfected.

6 yr old Harry’s disappearance
This was clearly done by some organization with a lot of experience in dealing with human affairs - note that Morgan says kid Harry disappeared physically, magically & bureaucratically. I don’t think the Fae would be able to hide Harry without mortal help (I do believe Lea was involved because I’ve also heard the WoJ that she would disguise herself & visit Harry at the orphanage).

My guess is likely a pact between Justin & Lea. They conspire to kill Malcolm (WoJ is that Harry would be extremely pissed if he knew of Lea’s role in this) & eventually raise Harry - they have their own agendas however.

1) Ortega calls Harry a self-righteous madman who will "destroy us all". What is he talking about? Harry might be self-righteous and has a few times been accused of being crazy, but how would Harry's actions destroy everyone? My guess is that the Reds don't want the end of the world, they simply want to be on top when it comes. Harry's early start to the war interferes with that plan and perhaps Ortega believes only the Red Court would have the power to control the outcome of the end times - an event or series of event that lots of players seem aware of that is imminent.
Yeah I’d agree with most of that

2) Martin believed Ortega was trying to delay the full war for another 20 years. It has almost been 20 years by our time, but lets say that Dresden is a few years behind us right now for various reasons. What happens in the next few years from Peace Talks? Book 20 for one and the end of the case files (maybe) and the beginning of the BAT. So at least according to Jim Butcher's original timeline for the series, why would the Reds want to wait until the BAT to start their war?
Well, I wouldn’t draw that conclusion from the 20 years thing - we’re at book 16, with a few more books till the BAT. I think the point of delaying was to build up enough forces/ forge deeper alliances that the White Council wouldn’t stand a chance in a war with the Ramps.

3) Nicodemus refers to his "schedule". This links with the whole BAT thing. I suspect he knew that the Shroud wasn't the "real" Shroud but he knew it had enough juice to do what he wanted.
Still don’t believe the link with the BAT here - I took Nic’s schedule to mean about the plague he was releasing & the things he needed to do to prolong it/ make it more effective. Yeah I’d wager he knew it was the fake Shroud too.

4) Mordite is first introduced. This is not an accident.
Yes. This is the first confirmation of the Outside.

5) Lord Raith is scared of Ortega. At full power I cannot imagine that Ortega would have been able to take a fully powered up Lord Raith. But I can understand why Lord Raith was afraid of Ortega in his weakened state. But I also wonder if this was more to do with who Ortega represented, Ariana for one, but perhaps the Circle? It seems likely that she was a part of it.
While Ortega was no doubt a formidable warrior, I agree that Raith Sr at his prime would’ve won handily - I think the point is that Ortega was a very dangerous man: he was the Ramp’s black ops guy - intelligent, brutal, ruthless & had the wealth/ manpower to accomplish his goals. Look at what he did at Archangel - that type of thing is probably was scared Raith most.

6) The connection between Maggie, Justin, Lord Raith, Ariana, Ortega and Nicodemus is hinted at over the books. And oddly enough but more subtly, Ebenezar.
I have a theory that they were the Black Council of their day - Eb was invited to join but didn’t

7) Denarians are definitely stronger in this book. Specifically they all use more anti-magic via their Fallen.
I think they were scarier because Harry didn’t know as much about them. It also seems like by SmF, a lot of the older coin-holders had died off, leaving newbies in their place - IIRC, Tessa, Rosanna, Nic, Deedee & Namshiel (dead by end of book) were the only ones left who’d likely had their Coins for centuries.
But I agree somewhat - Michaels says the KotC like to outnumber the Denarians 2 or 3:1 when they can help it, but by SmF they do pretty well individually.

8 ) Some odd continuity errors. Harry doesn't have his bracelet during the Duel with Ortega and he doesn't have it during the fight immediately afterwards. He even specifically notes that it is harder to create a shield without one, and then se in the following paragraph when the shield fails he says his bracelet began to burn his wrist. Obviously the Churchmice-Marcone buyer plot point is retconned in Skin Games. And Sanya claims that Michael's armor will not stop bullets - yet we know that Charity put ceramic and kevlar in. And of course the eye color change. Initially the Fallen's eyes are orange, and the host has green. But then it reverses mid book, in the same scene! Forever after the Fallen have green eyes. And by Small Favor the glyph/symbol of the Fallen no longer appears on the forehead of the vessel.
Agreed on most of these, except about Sanya not knowing that Michael had upgraded his armor - neither did Harry till he found out/ questioned Michael. This says some interesting things about Michael & his trust/ secrecy

9) Denarians release a contagion - a cocktail of every virus known to man and probably a few more that are unknown. However when reading this again I immediately thought of another thing: the contagion of the spirit spreading around the world. Nemesis.
Except that Nemesis is not like a virus that can multiply infinitely - it can only likely occupy a set number of beings at one time. I don’t think of Nemesis as a contagion in the plague sense of the word

10) In this book we learn that the forces of Hell get a power boost from destruction and mayhem. The plague will create an environment that makes them more powerful. We also learn later on that the Black Court of Vampires also gain power this way - see the WOJ on how the Black Court level up. Finally, a recent WOJ in response to a fan question about the Spanish Flu also implied that it was not merely a bad contagion, but was essentially a bio-weapon attack. My theory is that perhaps there is a link between the forces of Hell and the Black Court, perhaps they even work together. But more on that in another thread.
Hmm I think it’s a matter of degrees. In BR when Harry talks about this, he’s talking about the dark energy corrupting the neighborhood occupied by Mavra. Even Dracula only controlled a state within Romania at his peak (historically anyway). I’d imagine for the Nickelheads to get a power boost, they’d need something on the scale of the Spanish Flu (after all, they are responsible for the Black Death). I dunno about Hell & the BCV working together - I’m pretty sure the BCV has some sort of connection to the Outside. If this were true, I’d also expect to see the Nickelheads working in tandem with the BCV from time to time.

I get that Erlking is a wild/Summer Fae, my question is about why he was there at Arctis Tor trying to get Harry? Surely assaulting the Winter Wellspring doesn’t summon wild Fae - it should only summon the Winter soldiers spread out on Winter territory.

I imagine the summons from the Wellspring is atavistic in nature - something primal felt by all beings of Winter.

@g33k
When does Winter call a hunt?

In Changes, the Erlking tells the newly Winter Knighted Harry that he almost got him at Arctis Tor (events of PG reference I presume). My question is, why was the ErlKing at Arctis Tor there at all?

He is the consort of the Summer Queen, & Harry’s actions should’ve only summoned the Winter Fae at the Summer borders, so why is the ErlKing at Arctis Tor? I understand that Harry is on his shit list, but surely this isn’t an example of him generally being on the lookout for Harry.

I wholly agree with you that Nemesis has limits. I think we have discussed this before. But I think it's limits are the same as any virus - it's ability to transmit to new hosts. Hosts normally have to have compromised immune systems or the virus has to work in special ways in order to live in the host. I think Nemesis' limits are a combination of its ability to transmit from host to host, and perhaps that because it is "aware" it chooses its victims. More like a sentient Ebola (a truly terrifying thought). I suppose I just do not get why people are so against it being able to infect regular old mortals but are perfectly fine with it infecting supernatural beings. Truly I think we will not see the clues in Storm Front until the BAT as Jim is withholding key information, but I think when we do get that info we will see Nemesis and perhaps other players fingerprints in Storm Front.

IIRC Mab says that the Nfection jumped out of Lea & into Maeve - why would it need to do that if it can Nfect as many people as it likes? Viruses copy themselves into a new host, they don’t leave the old one to get to the new one.

The reason I do not believe that Nemesis can Nfect humans is its whole shtick is that it is able to change that which cannot - like the natures of individual Fae. As immortals, they do not possess free will & thus cannot make a choice to change themselves/ their fundamental natures (sorta like angels) - humans however do possess free will & are fungible enough to change themselves as they please. It is easier to emotionally/ financially manipulate a human into doing something than wasting valuable resources on Nfecting them.

Additionally, if humans could be Nfected, why wouldn’t Nemesis try to Nfect the POTUS & start a global nuclear war or something? Maybe launch a nuke at the WC Edinburgh facility & Demonreach?