Also the Archive is an objectively bad choice for mediator here if you think about it. You essentially have 2 smaller powers fighting each other - the best arbiter would be a larger power with the means to enforce their judgement - there is no way Ivy + Kincaid could take on all the Denarians united.

If the Swords negated Nic's healing factor, I'm relatively certain that he would've been killed by a Knight at some point over the last two millennia.

Or perhaps being that close to objects like the Grail & the Shroud severely weakened Anduriel & the protection he is able to provide Nic.

I like this theory.  Another: the noose acts on lethal injuries or injuries that could kill eventually.  Non-life-threatening injuries aren't covered, no matter how painful they are.

I'm still pondering the rest.  On the car wreck though.  Consider that he is attacked three times by non magic attacks. 

The car wreck.
The car bomb in Murphy's car.
The bag of explosives in Cold days.

The last by Ace.  My favorite, and I believe, the simplest explanation, is that all three attacks are by Ace.  Each one an iteration.

I don't disagree, I just don't know.  We've only seen Maeve do it, and the limits or capabilities of the outsiders are a cipher. It may be players we haven't seen. ?shrug?

Speaking of, how dumb was Lily exactly? "We're being helped by a Walker and an army of Outsider Cultists, we're 100% the good guys here"

This is an attempt on my part to isolate out the events in what I call the Maeve story line which leads to Molly becoming the Winter Lady.  I wonder if anybody would be interested in pointing out flaws or omissions?  It is incomplete as posted as I haven't completed the Cold Days story line.  If there is any interest I will update it as I add any additions or corrections.  It also contains some comments and possible interpretations of events.  I'll do it under a spoiler because of its length.

(click to show/hide)

Maeve story line. 

Grave Peril

Lea is introduced and given the athame by Bianca.

Summer Knight

We meet Mab and she makes Harry her emissary. Harry meets the Summer Emissary, Elaine, his female counterpart in Justin Dumorne's plan to create ?/bodyguards/?.  Also his first love. See note 1.  We are introduced to the Summer Queen Titania and the Summer Lady Aurora.  We also meet Maeve, the Winter Lady as well as Lloyd Slate the Winter Knight.  Aurora is crazy or possibly Nemfected. Harry first sees the Stone Table.   Lea warns Harry to never let Mab take him to the stone table.  Presaging Mabs desire to make him the Winter Knight.  Harry meets the Mothers and is given the unraveling.  This is the first reveal of the mantles and their nature.


Dead Beat

Mab has imprisoned Lea but appears to be unaware that Maeve is infected as well, since she is still speaking.  We find this out when he summons Lea and Mab appears.  She is wearing the athame.  Later in Cold Days we will learn that it was the source of the infection.  Question.  How far did it spread and did Mab catch all of the infected?  We don't know how Lea's nemfection was detected.

Proven Guilty

Lea is imprisoned at Arctis Tor.  As is the Winter Knight.  We get our first direct hint of nemfections, demonstrated by Lea's bizarre behavior.  Possibly greater fetch is infected as well. She mentions not being able to carry out her promise to Harry's mother if she isn't free of the Adversary though she doesn't name him.  She doesn't state the nature of her challange to Mab.

We know that Mab has deployed her forces to the border with Summer, but it isn't explicit as to why?  See note 2.

Arctis Tor was assaulted and the deployment could be the result of Mab being unsure of the players.  She has two major pieces off the chessboard at that moment.  Lea and the Winter Knight. 

And we know, although Mab may not, that Maeve and Lilly are plotting together in the background.  Maeve has expressed the possibility that Mab has gone insane like Aurora.

Discussion

Mab's motivations aren't clear.  Later in Cold Days we will find that the Gatekeeper is an ally of Mab and Winter in control of the gates and a powerful tool for identifying nimfections. 

Mab could have known of the depredations of the fetches.  If she did she could have warned the Gatekeeper and we can assume that she was aware of Molly's connection to Harry and the Knight's.  Going directly to Harry implies that the Gatekeeper is aware of how ticklish the situation is.  If anyone but Harry smells a rat Molly will be summarily executed. 

We know that Maeve is nemfected.  Given that, what events point to whom?  Since Maeves play is to paint Mab as insane, than she has reason to manipulate events so as to paint Mab in the most unflattering light.  A good first hypothesis is to assume that if an event points at Mab, than consider that it is Maeve who behind it.

We know that a Denarian(?Thorned Namshiel?) threw hellfire at the gates of Arctis Tor. Motivation?  And how did they get there?  Can we assume that the Denarian attacked while Mab was absent?  Supporting evidence for that is Thorned Namshiel's continued existence.  If Maeve had sent the fetches she would have known of the portal at the theater, and if she knew than Nemesis knew.

Small Favor

Mab quits speaking directly.  Cat Sith becomes her voice.  She is now aware that the Adversary has Maeve.  She has Harry become involved with the Denarians and Marcone. To thwart a plot to capture the archive.

Changes

Lea is healed, Mab is again speaking.  Harry Breaks his back and makes a deal to become the Winter knight.  He kills the previous knight.  And tries to cheat Mab by having Kinkaid kill him.

Ghost Story

We see Mab at the end when Harry's soul returns to his body. She, Demonreach and Bonea have kept his body alive to await his soul.

Cold Days

Maeve story line ends.

Mab directs the Winter Knight to kill Maeve.

Harry speaks to the Ladies at the Chicago Arboretum in an attempt to find out why mab wishes him to kill Maeve. When harry is attacked at the Arboretum Cat Sith is apparently Nemfected.  Maeve says that she has seen the infection in Mab.  Maeve warns Harry that to keep up the deception her people will attack him.  We learn that Ace is the halfing son of the Red Cap.  We also know that Ace has been following Harry since he has adopted Harry's strategy of using the little folk as an army.  As such he may have been responsible for two previous attacks, the bomb on Murphy's car and the ramming.  All perforce accomplished by a vanilla mortal.  It is during the ensuing fight that Cat Sith is Nemfected.  However since Maeve has apparently left, who did it.  The Red Cap?

Harry speaks to Titania who tells him of the Adversary.  And of her hatred of Harry.  The emotional reaction could imply that Aurora was Titania's real child.

Harry than meets the mothers and is taken to the outer gates to see the Adversary's attack against reality.  There he learns of the Gatekeepers task and his connection to Winter.  Which possibly explains events in Proven Guilty as regards his knowledge of Black Magic in Chicago.  They imply that if Maeve ascends to the Queens Mantle that this would be a chaotic outcome with possibly dangerous side effects, because something out of the ordinary is happening at the Gates.
 
Citation from Cold Days.

What happens if it ...you know, if it breaks down for a bit?"
"Pardon?" the Gatekeeper asked.
"Uh, it gets a glitch. Like, if somebody new took over or something and things had to reorganize around here . . ."
"Most years, it would pose no major difficulty," he said.
"What about this year?"
"This year," he said, "it could be problematic."
"Problematic."
"Rather severely so." Rashid studied my face and then started to nod. "I see.
There are things happening back in Winter. That's why Mother Summer brought you here. To show you what was at stake."

To be completed.


Notes

1.  Elaine is a cipher.  If Aurora was Nemfected than the question becomes what is the possible vector.  Lea is infected by Morgana's Athame.  Did Lea somehow reach out to Aurora or was Aurora a separate event.  Is at least possible that Elaine was Nemfected by HWWB after being enthralled by DuMorne?  In the Cold Days it's implied that Cat Sith isn't fully aware of his Nemfection.  When Harry points it out to him the infection kills his personality totally.  This could mean that Elaine is infected without her knowledge.  Possibly making her a one woman sleeper cell.??

2. From Summer Knight when Lea shows Harry the stone table.

"But Summer is moving to protect the Table. That means Titania thinks someone in Winter did it. But if Mab is responding instead of waiting, it means …" I frowned. "It means she isn't sure why Summer is moving. She's just checking Titania's advance. And that means that she isn't sure whodunit, either."

This may lay the ground for the queens behavior in Proven Guilty.

*  Harry calling the head of the federal agency who monitors magic to invite them to some major magical conflict - and he got the number from the events in mirror mirror.  Incidentally I expect Stalling to be a member of this agency....   His name has been mentioned way too often to NOT have a future role to play.