I was recently looking at Elegast's theory index (http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,35806.0.html) and was surprised to notice that the Gatekeeper is no longer up as a suspect for fixing Little Chicago. This surprised me, as I seem to recall that he was the original suspect. So I decided to make this topic to try to get him back on the list, as I consider him the most likely suspect; maybe I'll be able to convince others.
This topic can be seen as discussing two ideas. The first aspect will focus on the things that point to Rashid being the one who did it. A considerable part of this evidence is based on Rashid's ties with Winter, however, so the inevitable argument will be made that the evidence does not truly differentiate between Rashid and the current forerunner, Mab. So the second focus of this post will be why Rashid is a more likely Culprit than the Queen of Air and Darkness.
There are five things needed of whoever fixed Little Chicago. In order of difficulty, they are:
1. Whoever did it waited until Bob was out of Harry's place before they did anything. So they had to know about Bob.
2. Whoever did it had to have known that Little Chicago existed and had a fatal flaw.
3. Whoever did it had to understand the magic involved well enough to fix the problem.
4. Whoever did it had to be able to work enough magic inside Harry's house to be able to fix the problem.
5. Whoever did it had to have a way to get into Harry's lab past his wards to fix it.
Let's tackle the points from easiest to hardest. As the topic is rather long, I've separated each one into its own spoiler box.
The Culprit's Point of Entry
There are five ways shown so far for someone to get inside Harry's apartment:
1. Prior invitation
2. Sneaking through the wards like Elaine did in Summer Knight.
3. Getting through Lea's garden.
4. A fae who only intends actions that benefit the home's owner(s) can pass the wards (AKA, the route that the brownies and the Guard have been using since Summer Knight, which Harry never wondered about because he always knew how it worked, but only explained to us when it came up in Cold Days with Cat Sith).
5. Per Serack's rather neat analysis (http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,31689.0.html), Thomas, as a person who lives in the house and was present at the time, invited the person in.
Of the list above, it becomes clear that Mab has at the very least two possible points of entry, namely, the brownie route, and Lea's garden (as the inheritor of Lea's deal with Maggie, she owns the garden while Lea is on ice). However, a closer look at Cold Days suggests that Mab could not have used those routes. Thomas' reaction to Cat Sith's presence in his home means that Thomas has no knowledge of Fae being capable of bypassing thresholds uninvited. Serack's analysis strongly suggests that Thomas saw whoever fixed LC; if it was Mab and she used either of those routes, Thomas could not have reacted in Cold Days the way he did. The only remaining option, then, which explains Mab entering the apartment with Thomas aware of her is for Thomas himself to have invited her in.
Meanwhile, thanks to Rashid's connection with Winter, and his knowledge of the Ways thereof, I find it hard to believe that he wouldn't know how to get to Lea's garden. Without Lea there, the garden's defenses cannot possibly stop the most dangerous member of the Senior Council, so I see no problem with him getting into Harry's apartment through this route, where he is either surprised by Thomas, or performs the same spell he did in Demonreach's dock during Turn Coat and knocks the vampire out (an unexpected nap would certainly explain Thomas' jumpiness).
Of course, once inside, our culprit still has to fix the flaw in LC. Which leads to the next section.
The Culprit's Power Level
There are three ways we've been shown so far for someone to work magic inside another's home:
1. They are invited in (Grave Peril)
2. They overpower the home's threshold (as Harry did to Anna Ash's threshold during White Night)
3. If they are Fae, the threshold will not stop their magic if it is beneficial to the home's owner(s).
We've seen what Mab's presence, let alone her power, does to Chicago's weather. And the events of Proven Guilty take place during a particularly sweltering mid-July. If Mab had used her magic in Harry's place, I get the feeling there would have been some mention of the lab being cooler than it should be, and I can't recall anything like that in the books.
From the events of White Night, we know roughly how much power one can exert through a bachelorette's threshold (according to Harry, less than 1% bleeds through). That automatically cuts down on the list of mortal practitioners with the oomph to fix Little Chicago without an invitation to Senior Council-level individuals only.
Even then, depending on the nature of the flaw, it could be argued that even a Senior Council wizard could not fix the problem. Which brings us to the next point.
The Culprit's Skill Level
According to Bob's comment, the problem was a missing transition coupling in the power flow, which would have redirected all the power directly through LC's user (hilarity ensues). In electrical terms, the fixer had to trace the circuit, find the problem, and modify the circuit without cutting the power. How hard would it be to discover the flaw?
On the one hand, Bob and Harry failed to see the flaw while building the model. On the other, as soon as Bob saw the difference in LC, it became patently obvious to him that the previous design was flawed. So this isn't a "No one could have seen that coming" kind of flaw, but rather a "how did I not see that in the first place" kind of flaw. I get the feeling that if someone had told Harry that there was a flaw in the design, it wouldn't have taken him that long to find it either. After all, let's look at some examples of how "hard" it is to read a magical circuit, as it were:
- In Storm Front, it takes Harry less than a night to figure out how Sell's spell would have to work.
- In Fool Moon, it takes mere minutes for Harry to figure out the Loup Garou's circle.
- In Summer Knight, Elaine figures out Harry's wardings, even though the last time they'd known each other, Harry had never made a ward in his life (though they both probably had reinforced Justin's).
- In White Night, it only takes moments for Harry to figure out the spells used by the Ordo Lebes.
- Again in Ghost Story, it only takes moments to figure out the brick-ward around Murphy's house.
- In Last Call, Molly figures out the nature of the spell in the beer in less than an hour. Harry admits the only reason he didn't do it himself was because figuring out delicate spells is something he's bad at, and he is confident he woulda gotten it eventually anyhow.
So yeah, figuring out spells seems to be quite easy for wizards; the knowledge base needed to figure out spells is exactly what separates a wizard, one of the wise, from a sorcerer. If one then realizes that Rashid's job description boils down to analysing magic, it becomes clear that he would have the ideal skill set to figure out what was wrong with LC and fixing it, particularly if the fixer goes in knowing that there's a deadly flaw somewhere, which is, of course, the next point.
The Culprit's Knowledge of LC
This is the most interesting bit of the puzzle. How could anyone know about a flaw in a secret tool that had never been used in the first place? The consensus, of course, is foresight. So let's look at the people who we know have foresight, and we know were involved in this book.
1. Whoever directs the Knights of the Sword.
2. The Gatekeeper.
Here I'm going to state something that I suspect will be generally disagreed with: I believe Mab does not personally have foresight, but rather, she has access to it courtesy of her friends and allies, namely (in order of closeness to her), her husband, the Winter Mothers, her close ally the Gatekeeper, and her sometime ally Uriel.
That both Michael's team and Rashid are directly messing with the timeline is pretty evident: Michael's convenient appearance during his daugther's trial is so evident that Harry actually counted on it happening, as did the Gatekeeper himself.
The Gatekeeper's interference is shown in three parts: he knew when to open the door to let Michael in, he was the one who pointed Harry toward the coming dark magic, which both started the whole thing and meant Harry was in hand to get Molly's phone call and get the ball rolling, and lastly, from a Doylist perspective (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/WatsonianVersusDoylist), we are told that he's messing with the timeline by Bob.
Speaking of Bob, he's actually the last bit of the puzzle.
The Culprit's Knowledge of Bob
I believe it is fair to say that whoever fixed LC made sure to do so when Bob was not around to tattle on him/her/it. This precaution is sound: we learned in Ghost Story that Bob sees what's happening in the Lab, even when he appears to be asleep (since he has a recording of Molly changing during the events of Its My Birthday Too). This is the one area where Mab utterly obliterates Rashid. Cold Days provides clear evidence that Mab know exactly where Bob is hiding, as much as Bob would like it to be otherwise.
On the other hand, since Luccio knows what Bob is, even if she doesn't know where he is, and Cowl knew where Bob was, it would not fully surprise me if Rashid also knew enough about Bob to wish to avoid him.
As for why Rashid has not condemned Harry for having such a dangerous ally, well, as Rashid himself said in Summer Knight: "Sometimes what the Council does not know does not hurt it."
Other considerations (Mab & and the murk)
Of course, this begs the question what, exactly, are the fetches doing at Splattercon!!! if Mab didn't see it coming. So here's what I think happened:
Bob tells Harry that there are three possible reasons for a phobophage attack: natural predation (it is, after all, the equivalent of an all you can eat buffet to them), someone summoning them, or someone sending them. Harry decides to focus (as is his usual method) on the answer that he's most likely to be able to interfere with, and assumes someone is summoning them. As we know, Harry got this wrong (if there had been a summoner, they would have appeared in Harry's detection ward; instead, he identified Molly's black magic taint only. This, incidentally, suggests that Maeve either can shield her presence from this type of magic, or she was not present during the third attack.
I propose that the fetches discovered the convention and chose to predate on it themselves without any outside interference by anyone. However, when they did their first attack on Pell, meant to secure their entry and exit point, they stumbled on something unexpected and important: boyfriend Nelson was also on the restroom, and he had the marks of having been fear-spelled. This likely intrigued them, possibly enough to let Mab know.
During their second attack, however, their curiosity was definitely intrigued: here was another victim of fear-tampering (Rosie), and something else happened that really raised a flag: someone put up a murk ward.
Here's another bit that I think will get me some discussion: I think the murk ward was instinctively made by Molly trying to defend herself and her "friend", and trying to keep Harry from finding out she could do magic. Why do I think this? Because mind tampering is her first strength, and because we know her first spell was caused by fear of being discovered. We also know from Harry's confrontantion with her at the church at the end of the book that she can call a considerable amount of power when she's afraid (enough to slow Harry momentarily, but not enough to stop him.
At this point, the fetches had to inform their Queen about what was going on. Being as they're Mab's spies, they probably discover about the Sandra Marling / Glau coalition to implicate Raith for Molly's Black Magic, and go to Mab, who tells them to stop the Black Council from gaining such an important resource; this is both why the Scarecrow is sent out after Glau, and why the final attack is so different from the rest, with many fetches involved.
Of the classic investigative triangle, the previous points focus on means and opportunity. In conclusion, I would like to take a look at the final piece of the puzzle: motive. Cold Days is interesting, because in it we learn that Mab was not preparing Molly to become the Winter Lady, but rather thought she would make a better Summer Lady. However, I don't think that the events of Cold Days were completely unexpected. I propose that Rashid's whole purpose in setting Harry up to save Molly was specifically so that she would be there when the time came, and she would become the next Winter Lady. It is as he said to Harry in Cold Days: Harry was the cavalry, come to save the whole debacle initated by Maeve's possession and Harry setting Summer's fire into Winter's Wellspring.
So, with better means, a clearer motive, and ample opportunity, I humbly propose that Wizard Rashid, the Gatekeeper, was the one who fixed Little Chicago as one of the first pebbles that would end with the avalanche of Margaret Katherine Amanda "Molly" Carpenter as Winter Lady. Apologies for any typos or errors I missed, and I would certainly love to hear everyone's thoughts and feedback.
As with last time, wizard nelson's posts are in the spoiler box. A quick summary:
1. Mab doesn't need foresight in order to stop Harry from blowing his head off. She can just keep him busy long enough that he won't use it before she gets a chance to fix it.
2. What message could Rashid possibly get from the future that would lead to the chain of events in the book (sending Harry after Molly with Bob while sending someone to Harry's house at the same time to find and fix the flaw in LC) without revealing and therefore fixing a bad future as unfixable?
My replies:
1. The problem I have with a non-foresight equipped Mab fixing Little Chicago is the level of baby-sitting involved in stopping Harry from using it before the fix. At the very least, it involves:
- Sending someone to run him over so that he'll get home later
- Orchestrating the attack on Pell so that boyfriend Nelson will be arrested in time for Molly to have to call Harry to bail him out
- Reconnecting Harry's phone
- Not kidnapping Molly until LC has been fixed
However, someone with access to future knowledge knows that all of the above will happen already, so they don't need to do it themselves. After all, the consensus here is that the Chrysler attack was done by Ace, and the phone call in the middle of the ritual, I would argue, if it's not a coincidence, is courtesy of angelic coincidental intervention (the same way Michael appears during the trial).
2. OK, first of all, a caveat: WoJ is that when Bob doesn't know an answer, he'll give a theoretical answer or just his best guess. Why is this important? Because during the events of PG, Bob didn't know about time travel and foresight. We've seen plenty of things, from the Oracle spirit in Death Masks to the discussion with Odin in Cold Days that propose that Bob highly overrates how paradox works.
But, if we assume that Bob is right, and that a message from the future must be a) true, and b) inevitable, and c) intended to change something that is not directly mentioned by the message itself, then it should be possible to imagine a Bad Future that would lead to a message that will help Rashid figure out what he needs to do here (think Heroes if you ever watched that show). You earlier accused me of twisting facts to fit the theory; I think I may just be doing that with the bit below.
So, elements of this bad future (located inside the Spoiler):
1. Molly is still important, and the events of Splattercon!!! are likely very similar to what we see. Molly is probably still taken, and Harry probably still tries to use Little Chicago, with fatal results.
2. Harry does not throw Summer Fire into Winter's Wellspring. The armies of Winter are not called from the Walls. No Outsiders take this opportunity to enter through the Gates.
3. Without Harry, Molly stays in Winter, and proceeds to be molded by Winter's philosophy. Maeve recognizes Molly for what she is: an understudy, and Nemesis likely sets her up and has her killed.
4. Without the Outsider reinforcements breaking in while Winter's army was distracted defending the Wellspring, there are less Outsiders in the World. However, without Summer free from guarding its borders from Winter, more of the Outsiders attacking the White Council survived the attack. So the total number of Outsiders inside Reality may be more or less than in the normal timeline.
5. Without Harry as Winter Knight breathing down Maeve's neck, the attack on Demonreach likely doesn't take place. Nemesis instead decides to continue to stick to the long game.
6. It is still likely, however, that Maeve still kills Lily, forcing Sarissa to replace her.
7. Without a Knight, and with a Lady who's infected and kills every replacement before they can be trained, Mab and the Gatekeeper find their position too weakened to continue to defend the Gates.
The bad future I envision, basically, is one where Mab doesn't have a second option for Maeve's replacement hidden away, forcing her to keep Maeve alive. Molly is the ideal candidate for the job, and in order to keep her hidden, Harry has to live and take her on as his apprentice. On the other hand, if Harry ever finds out that his apprentice is destined to become Winter Lady, he'll do everything in his power to stop it from happening. So, with those constraints in mind, here's the message I would send, if I were future Rashid:
"A user of dark magic will gain Winter's Favor. Fate and coincidence will stop Chicago's Warden from using the scrying tool he developed with Kemmler's familiar until X nights after the warlock's execution."
X is the number of days between the start of PG and when he actually uses LC (can't remember off the top of my head). It's a fairly subtle way of giving Rashid a deadline without telling him something bad, wouldn't you agree?
(The spoiler box below contains wizard nelson's posts I'm replying to).
@wyltok
1 ummm...... damn! uhh... yea your right. i looked thinking to find the quote, now why did i think that? Mmmm...
2 yea but not necessarily the i see the future kind. like duck i opt for the "I am mab! i've thought of everything fool!" answer along the lines of sun tzu kinda gathered intelligence. mabs just good like that, its her job.
3 i assume that was so you'd understand rashids msg and how it worked? rashid knowing to hit harry to divert him is a little iffy though. how can you get that msg across in a vague way(as i believe future GK MUST be to not screw with the timeline). i mean "harry gets into a car wreck at precisely 2:45" is too informativ. i suppose rashid steal a car to tail harry and keep on the lookout and was driving it when future rashid sends back a description of the same car he's driving. viola 2+2=4 rashid realises he must hit harry because he's driving the car that does it. yes i know i'm supporting your idea now :P and my ps3 will cut this off soon so 4 willbenextpost
THAT is great butcher forshadowing. it jives right with me.
4 kinda yea. the only event in the future that would give rashid all the pertainent info needed would be harry dying. i don't see any other reason rashid could know about LC, or that it had a fatal flaw in the future except this event. thats really meddling in time there.
not to retcon on things but it seems to me altering time requires the mortal touch of free will. just as in DB changing harry's fate was an act of free will in the face of predestination. so a god to facilitate the working and a mortal to carry out the actions. dude look at it this way. time manipulation is odin/kringles forte and harry owes him a favor. this sets up the presumed time travel jim says will probably happen. IF on the other hand the time thing refers to harry doing kringles job one snowy christmas eve and stretching time to visit every kid in the world, i'd be cool with that too ;)
did you catch the one in CD about mab sayingdon't worry mortal, the stars will fall from the sky before mab fullfills not her word.
Do you think Jim will let us make ' Team Mab' t shirts?
omg so much better than that team jacob/edward bull.