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Messages - draxius

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DF Reference Collection / Re: Dresden Files: Series Timeline
« on: March 13, 2015, 05:43:07 PM »
Sorry to rehash this point - I've been away a while - but I think Beamer is correct.

There seems to be a math error in this:

Still, there is compelling data that suggests "Storm Front" takes place in 1999, putting Harry's birth in 1974:
 
IF 3 ASF is 2003 then 0 ASF would be 2000, and if Harry was 25 in March of 2000 then he would have been born in 1974.(remember his birthday is October 31)

Harry being born in '74 does not conflict with Copperfield because Copperfield's first big job in show business was starring in the musical "The Magic Man" which opened in Chicago in March of 1974

I'm not sure where you're getting your "If 3 ASF is 2003" supposition.

Actually, I think it's from your own timeline:

0 ASF, March: Storm Front.  Harry is 25, according to Jim, and he's been wizarding professionally for two years.  We can reasonably place the year 0 in the timeline within a year or two of 2000, and there's a fair amount of evidence indicating that it could be 2000.
 ...
3 ASF, late February: Death Masks.  Susan has been gone about a year and a half.
Note that we can place this book "a few years" after 1997, when the Shroud was nearly destroyed in a mysterious fire.  [DM 28]
Also, this is a mayoral election year, so we can assume with confidence that this book takes place in 2003. (thanks, Katarn!)


For what it's worth, I happen to agree with the logic here (both Beamer's, and that used in the "canonical" timeline). If Death Masks is just shy of 3 years after Storm Front (which I don't think anyone is disagreeing with), and we're confident that Death Masks takes place in 2003, we should be equally confident that Storm Front takes place in 2000. This is the stance of the actual posted timeline, and has been for quite a while. I've always agreed with that stance, and haven't seen anything that actually contradicts that in the timeline itself - the 1999 date that I've seen tossed around seems to be based on a misreading of the above data, not anything new that's been introduced.

As I've said before - I'll be happy to admit I'm wrong on this provided someone can explain it to me. I'm looking for accuracy, not "being right".

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DF Reference Collection / Re: Dresden Files: Series Timeline
« on: October 02, 2014, 06:16:42 AM »
There seems to be a math error in this:

Still, there is compelling data that suggests "Storm Front" takes place in 1999, putting Harry's birth in 1974:
 
IF 3 ASF is 2003 then 0 ASF would be 2000, and if Harry was 25 in March of 2000 then he would have been born in 1974.(remember his birthday is October 31)

Harry being born in '74 does not conflict with Copperfield because Copperfield's first big job in show business was starring in the musical "The Magic Man" which opened in Chicago in March of 1974
I agree with you here. I've tried to point out the same thing. FWIW, I'm still in the "Storm Front is in 2000" camp, which would have Harry being born in '74, as you've mentioned.

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DF Reference Collection / Re: Dresden Files: Series Timeline
« on: September 02, 2014, 02:44:11 PM »
The astronomical way is:
Spring: March 20 - June 20
Summer:  June 21 - September 22
Fall: September 23 - December 20
Winter: December 21 - March 19

Your way makes a lot more sense to me, though.

Actually, it's a lot more complicated than people realize. To start with, everything is "reversed" when you flip the conversation from the Northern to Southern hemisphere. However, since things in the Dresdenverse are largely centered around Chicago, lets leave that variable out. (We'll also not get into how that might impact, say, Mab during a visit to New Zealand...)

Astronomically, the solstices and equinoxes are the middle of each season, not the beginning. Hence terms like Midsummer and Midwinter which, with a little bit of research, you'll find line up with their respective solstices.

Meteorologicaly, the seasons are as Phil pointed them out (Spring being March to May, Summer June to August, etc).

Observance of the "seasons" is a cultural phenomenon, based on a real phenomenon called "seasonal lag" - which is basically how long it takes the seasonal shift to affect the weather patterns. As a result, the reckoning of seasons is based on a bunch of factors, and is largely a national phenomena. In the US, the generally accepted version (and the one taught as "correct") is that each season begins on an equinox or solstice.

The Wikipedia article on Summer actually breaks down these difference really well.

I'll spare you all my babblings on the pagan calendar, and how it connects to all of this. ;)

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DF Reference Collection / Re: Dresden Files: Series Timeline
« on: August 25, 2014, 05:57:52 PM »
True, it could  have been the first week of March. Though that is still verging on month 5.

Can't argue there - time is tricky. I haven't read it yet, but I get the feeling that "February and/or March" may end up being the appropriate end-point for it. Hopefully, we'll have a better answer by the end of War Cry.

That said, I've found that quotes from dialogue make things tenuous to pin down - especially with the graphic novels. Take Ghoul Goblin for example. Jim refers to the events of Fool Moon as occurring "only weeks" prior in Issue #1, while in Issue #2, it's "several months" (this is also indicated in the synopsis text at the beginning of the issues/HC). I'm inclined to go with the one in the synopsis, as people's recollection of time is fallible (doubly so when you're dealing with a fictional character's recollection of time), whereas narrative text should theoretically be more reliable.

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DF Reference Collection / Re: Dresden Files: Series Timeline
« on: August 23, 2014, 02:51:52 AM »
Correcting an error.

in the Timeline War Cry is listed as 6 ASF, March

In Issue one, Harry says that it's been 4 months since Yoshimo broke her leg. That sets War Cry in February 6 ASF.

Dead Beat is at the very end of October (29th - 31st). Precisely 4 months would put us into the end of February/beginning of March, depending on the day of the break and whether or not it's a leap year... so it's hard to get precision on exactly when Jim is placing this.

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DF Reference Collection / Re: Dresden Files: Series Timeline
« on: June 10, 2013, 08:47:27 PM »
We don't know for a fact Harry was exactly 25 in Storm Front.  I can't imagine him being younger than 24, but yeah.  Not necessarily 25.
Fair point - I'd thought that we'd gotten some confirmation from Jim on that one, but you'd know much better than I would.  The rest of this isn't an argument against your logic (or anyone else's) per se - rather it's an attempt to finally get to the bottom of all this.  :)  In all seriousness - please feel free to show I'm wrong on anything here.  I'd rather have the right answer than think I do and be wrong.

That being said, DM's election year mention always had me placing that in 2003, and working backward from there would put SF and FM in 2000 (regardless of Harry's age).

I'd set up my mini-timeline site to help myself (and others, if they'd like to reference it) for placing the stories - I've found it especially useful for placing adventures in the DFRPG, for example.  In digging through all of that, and using the comprehensive timeline from this thread coupled with my own notes, I've been using the following as a set of guide-posts (all month counts in ages rounded down):
  • Harry is 19 when he leaves Ebeneezer (minimum age - 19y0mo)
  • Harry wanders around for 9-20 months (minimum age - 19y9mo)
  • Harry takes several jobs before joining Ragged Angel (minimum age - 20y0mo)
  • Harry works for Ragged Angel for 3 years (minimum age - 23y0mo)
  • Harry is in business for himself ~ 5 years by the time Death Masks happens (minimum age - 28y0mo)

Since Death Masks is in February (Harry would be ~28y3mo by the above math), and Storm Front is just shy of 3 years earlier (Harry is ~25y4mo), Harry is pretty much always 25 in my head during Storm Front.

Even if we compress the "Harry wanders" and "odd jobs" periods, the youngest Harry could start his own agency would be ~22 1/2 years old (19 when he left Ebeneezer, 3 years with Nick, plus time to move around).  That could make him 24 during Storm Front, but I think that's pushing it.  I completely agree that 23 is right out.

On the Knight Rider question, apparently there were episodes being aired in syndication all the way into the 90s: http://knightrideronline.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=17719  Couple that with the fact that a twelve-almost-thirteen Harry born in 1974 would be preferring to watch an episode aired in 1987, and I don't know how much the Knight Rider piece of the debate holds up anymore (as much as I wanted it to... :'( ).

Now for some more headache-inducing analysis of all of this.

If we assume that the youngest Harry could be is 24 in Storm Front, and the oldest he could be is 29 (just to have an upper bound on things - I don't think anyone thinks that Harry is 30 when Storm Front rolls around).  We'll narrow these ages in a second, but I think these boundaries are very reasonable.

The earliest logical date for Harry to be born is 10/31/1974 (due to the Copperfield dilemma), placing Storm Front between 1999 (age 24) and 2004 (age 29).

The latest logical time for Death Masks would be ~2004 (as the Shroud of Turin incident - a "few years" before - has a hard dated year of 1997).  That being said, Death Masks makes, by far, the most sense being placed in 2003 due to the mayoral election year.  Here, Harry would be between ages 27 and 32.  However, if we assume that Death Masks has a hard date of Feburary 2003 (1999 is too early, 2007 too late), and Harry born no earlier than October of 1974, the oldest he could be during DM is 28 (having turned 28 in October of 2002).  This doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room - if he's 27 or 28 in DM, that makes him 24 or 25 during Storm Front.

That having been said, we've been given that slew of time units I rattled off earlier in this post, which adds up to 28 years and change.  So for me, the logical conclusion is that Harry is 28 in DM (taking place in 2003), 25 in SF (taking place in 2000), and as a result, born in 1974.

I've convinced myself on this too many times - I guess the question is, have I convinced anyone else, and is anyone of a mind to dissuade me from some logical fallacy I might have overlooked here?

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DF Reference Collection / Re: Dresden Files: Series Timeline
« on: May 14, 2013, 08:27:59 PM »
Somewhat relevant: Jim wrote the story in early 2010. :D

Yeah, this nestles in nicely with the growing consensus that Storm Front takes place in 1999.  Great catch!

Serious question on this - what is pointing to Storm Front being in 1999?  If Harry was born in 1974 (which I feel is the "consensus opinion" right now) and he's 25 during the story, wouldn't that place Storm Front it in 2000 (and it being about 5 months after his 25th birthday)?

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DF Reference Collection / Re: Dresden Files: Series Timeline
« on: March 16, 2013, 11:32:51 PM »
Another note on specifically on Ghoul Goblin, actually.  According to issue 2, it takes place between a few weeks and several months after Fool Moon.  I will be as non-spoliery as I can with the references here.

Issue 1: (Harry, thinking...) "Because I screwed up, a group of werewolves unleashed a bloodbath that claimed my best friend's partner. That was only weeks ago."
Isse 2: (Harry thinking again) "My mind took an involuntary leap back several months. Murphy had survived the MacFinn case, but many others weren't so lucky.*"
* SEE FULL MOON SERIES -- RICH

The nature of comics are going to cause some inconsistencies (there are a couple in Ghoul Goblin so far that jump off the page at me), but in terms of placement in the timeline, we already knew which novels it was between (http://www.jim-butcher.com/posts/2012/ghoul-goblin-1-preview)

Based on the "several months" comment from issue two (and the lead-in text before each issue, actually), and the fact that Harry is freezing in one of the scenes where he is, I'd place the story roughly in February following Fool Moon, maybe March... much later would start getting warmer where he's at, almost too warm for the scene and his reactions in issue 3 to play out the way that they do.

I haven't read the Bigfoot stories yet, so I don't know if that's before or after "B is for Bigfoot" in the timeline, but I'm very confident we can add this to the timeline as:

1 ASF, February or March: Ghoul Goblin. Several months after Fool Moon, but early enough in the year for freezing temperatures in Missouri.

You know, with Priscellie's review and OK, of course. ;)

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DF Reference Collection / Re: Dresden Files: Series Timeline
« on: March 16, 2013, 09:30:56 PM »
Fantastic catch, Sharlee!

We should make a list of reasons why Harry's birth should be in certain years.

1974 (SF in 1999)
  • Works with mayoral elections
  • Dovetails with major post-9/11 historical events: terrorist paranoia, War on Terror, end or Iraq war, and death of bin Laden
  • Closest to Knight Rider timeline
  • Lydia's prophetic dream about the Challenger disaster in 1986 hits at a more plausible age (while still certainly plausible for Harry being born in 1976).  Assuming she's talking about the assassination attempt on Reagan in 1981, this is also the most plausible.
  • CON: David Kotkin (age 18) takes the stage name "David Copperfield" in 1974, though his career doesn't take off until 1975.  Still, if Malcolm knew him from the SAM and even helped him choose a name, this isn't a deal-breaker.

1976 (SF in 2001)
  • WoJ (who can be fallible)
  • David Copperfield attains fame in 1975.
  • Holy cats, I am seriously coming up blank here.
What else am I missing?  Seems very likely I need to inform Jim he's wrong. :D

I've been lurking on this community for a long time without posting.  A while back, I tried to rationalize some of these dates, and wrote myself a little HTML/Javascript to do the math. (If anyone wants to play around with it, you can find it here - http://draxius.com/dresden/timeline.html ... and feel free to correct any inaccuracies I might have).

This brought me to a problem with both of the above timelines.  Because Storm Front occurs in March, and Harry is born in October, for him to be 25 during SF sets your years off by 1.  If Harry was born on 10/31/74, Storm Front needs to be in March of 2000, not 1999 (he'd still be 24 years old, and in fact closer to his 24th than 25th birthdays).

For me, the math still points to a 1974 birth date (as the millenial chaos that's mentioned early on in the series makes sense).  Put the page I put together forces a determination of both Storm Front's year and how old Jim is when it happens, so we can play with the abacus of Harry's life a bit.  It is, of course, no where near as complete as Priscellie's timeline, but should help to shake out the last few of the questions.

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