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The Dresden Files => DF Spoilers => Topic started by: Mira on October 07, 2019, 03:01:41 PM
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On the reread after reading Turn Coat it isn't very hard to connect the dots really. In the meeting of the White Council and just before Eb is informed that his friend Simon has been attacked and murdered by the Red Court. He is shocked as is the rest of the Council when they hear the news, Simon was the Red Court Vamp expert, his tower was impregnable, the consensus is that someone from the inside had to have betrayed him, but who?
Okay, this is kind of dropped because they need to seat a new member of the Senior Council to take
Simon's place. As we know Eb challenges for the seat, so the Merlin turns to Peabody essentially to
call the roll of those present in line for such a position.. Very deliberately in my opinion, Jim writes about Peabody muttering something then "brushing his nose with his finger leaving a big smear of ink. Hello.. Since in Turn Coat under the influence of Peabody's ink Luccio murders LaFortier, it isn't to great a leap to surmise that Peabody with his ink influenced someone to betray Simon to the Red Court. The question is who ordered him to do it?
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Another line of thinking is expressed when Eb and Listens to Wind are talking to Martha Liberty before the meeting too. They imply that Dresden is going to be blamed because he was taught by Dumourne, and Dumourne was taught by Simon. But they dont know about Elaine being an apprentice too, so they never bring up that option. So if Simon really was killed, it could have been Elaine who let the reds in. If however, Simon turns out to be Cowl, then Elaine could be Kumori returning to her master's master to complete her training. Her placement within the Summer Court could also be part of Cowls plans, slowly infecting each group from the inside. She appears to defect from Aurora to help Harry, then again she is part of the group of dying women in WN, but Cowl is working against the White Court so it makes sense for her to be on the inside there too "helping" Harry until the Skavis targeted her. She is too banged up to help Cowl at the White Court coup, but gets immediately put on the inside of the Paranet when it is created. So if she is working for Cowl/Simon, she is going to be in that same position in the future when she will be forced to choose sides.
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Another line of thinking is expressed when Eb and Listens to Wind are talking to Martha Liberty before the meeting too. They imply that Dresden is going to be blamed because he was taught by Dumourne, and Dumourne was taught by Simon. But they dont know about Elaine being an apprentice too, so they never bring up that option. So if Simon really was killed, it could have been Elaine who let the reds in. If however, Simon turns out to be Cowl, then Elaine could be Kumori returning to her master's master to complete her training. Her placement within the Summer Court could also be part of Cowls plans, slowly infecting each group from the inside. She appears to defect from Aurora to help Harry, then again she is part of the group of dying women in WN, but Cowl is working against the White Court so it makes sense for her to be on the inside there too "helping" Harry until the Skavis targeted her. She is too banged up to help Cowl at the White Court coup, but gets immediately put on the inside of the Paranet when it is created. So if she is working for Cowl/Simon, she is going to be in that same position in the future when she will be forced to choose sides.
But there is no evidence that Elaine knew Simon or he, her. Also unless she got different information she never knew that the White Council or it's members existed. I do believe that Elaine may have been the carrier for the infestation that led to Aurora's madness.
No, one has to look at the long term goals of whomever was backing Peabody. In Luccio's case the goal was to turn the Council against the Wardens, also to knock out the two most effective Wardens.. In the case of Simon, not only taking out the "expert" on the killing of Redvamps, but the defense against them as well.. By affecting someone on the inside because all were in agreement that was the only way the vamps could have gotten into Simon's tower would sew divisions among those trying to fight a war.. In both cases those divisions could be expanded out in the future BAT which was the real goal here.
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It's pretty clear that Harry and Elaine were (largely) peers. Same assignments from DuMorne. They'd split/share the work, copy each others answers, etc.
And Harry (at that point) hadn't the slightest idea how to assaut a major ward-protected site like Archangel.
If it was Elaine, she got that info from someone other than DuMourne.
DuMorne having survived the fire, and being the source of the info taking down Archangel, looks likeliest to me.
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DuMorne having survived the fire, and being the source of the info taking down Archangel, looks likeliest to me.
Possible, but the simplest answer given what happened in Turn Coat makes the most sense. Peabody was influencing with his ink and making suggestions to someone who could in turn betray Simon. Now a lot depends on whether or not Jim planned to foreshadow or drop a hint that many books ahead of what happened in Turn Coat... But I still think he was being very obvious about the ink and Peabody in Summer Knight. There is no indication that Peabody is merely a slob, we know now that he has been influencing the Senior Council for years with his ink.. Remember Rashid said they'd have to go back a dozen years or more and revisit decisions the Council had made under the possible influence of the ink.. Also there is this if someone as strong as Luccio could be influenced it isn't a huge leap that the same thing had happened to someone close to Simon.
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On the reread after reading Turn Coat it isn't very hard to connect the dots really. In the meeting of the White Council and just before Eb is informed that his friend Simon has been attacked and murdered by the Red Court. He is shocked as is the rest of the Council when they hear the news, Simon was the Red Court Vamp expert, his tower was impregnable, the consensus is that someone from the inside had to have betrayed him, but who?
Okay, this is kind of dropped because they need to seat a new member of the Senior Council to take Simon's place. As we know Eb challenges for the seat, so the Merlin turns to Peabody essentially to call the roll of those present in line for such a position.. Very deliberately in my opinion, Jim writes about Peabody muttering something then "brushing his nose with his finger leaving a bit smear of ink. Hello.. Since in Turn Coat under the influence of Peabody's ink Luccio murders LaFortier, it isn't to great a leap to surmise that Peabody with his ink influenced someone to betray Simon to the Red Court. The question is who ordered him to do it?
You are entirely correct... and to be brutally frank -- by this same logic, Peabody could have had Simon himself lower the wards.
Simon sat on the Senior Council, and we're pretty sure all of the SC were especially influenced by Peabody.
Peabody could have had Simon "work on the wards" or could have deluded him that certain visitors were "safe," or... well, dozens of pretenses.
Remember -- Peabody was powerful enough to get the Captain of the Wardens to murder someone on the Senior Council.
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Great pick up G33k.
We are also assuming that Simon did in fact die at Archangel, and isn't Cowl.
But if he isn't Cowl and someone betrayed him, the whole point was that it couldn't be just anybody on the Council. It HAD to be someone who knew his wards intimately. Which is why Justin is suspected in the first place, but with his albi of being DED, Dresden was next in line. Elaine too would have known had Justin taught her. If Elaine knew, it was because Justin survived and taught her or I suppose she was picked up by Simon. Either way it implicates her as being at least part of the Black Council if not Kumori, making Simon or Justin the real identity of Cowl.
The least likely explanation is that it is some random on the Council. The whole passage in Summer Knight were we find out Simon has been murdered explains that it could only be someone who knew his wards intimately (Eb even expresses surprise that it could even be treachery because of the fact that Simon's tower was impregnable). Later, Morgan says it is presumed that Simon's death curse took a heavy toll on his attackers, but as none of his house hold survived they can't be sure. Also, there were several attacks that precipitated the attack on Archangel but they always had advance knowledge and so were able to suffer minimal loss of life, the exception was Archangel. Seems to very similar to me in how Martin survived so long (indeed as the longest serving member) in the Fellowship of St Giles. I would say that the Red Court telegraphed their previous attacks and lulled the White Council into a false sense of security so that when the attack happened at Archangel they were unprepared. Only after did they beef up security. It is the Red Court's modus operandi (targets made and escapes provided - just like Martin).
Mira - I think you have hit on something though. Our first interaction with Wizard Peabody and the ink is mentioned a lot, even if it was slid in there unnoticed at the time. I wonder if he was somehow influencing the Merlin even then to be more hasty and less considered in order to force an error. I think you are right - Peabody is no slob. I think he was being deliberate in that moment. Not magic of course, that would have been noticed, but something none the less.
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You are entirely correct... and to be brutally frank -- by this same logic, Peabody could have had Simon himself lower the wards.
Simon sat on the Senior Council, and we're pretty sure all of the SC were especially influenced by Peabody.
Peabody could have had Simon "work on the wards" or could have deluded him that certain visitors were "safe," or... well, dozens of pretenses.
Remember -- Peabody was powerful enough to get the Captain of the Wardens to murder someone on the Senior Council.
That is very true, ugly, influencing Simon to commit suicide.
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But there is no evidence that Elaine knew Simon or he, her. Also unless she got different information she never knew that the White Council or it's members existed. I do believe that Elaine may have been the carrier for the infestation that led to Aurora's madness.
No, one has to look at the long term goals of whomever was backing Peabody. In Luccio's case the goal was to turn the Council against the Wardens, also to knock out the two most effective Wardens.. In the case of Simon, not only taking out the "expert" on the killing of Redvamps, but the defense against them as well.. By affecting someone on the inside because all were in agreement that was the only way the vamps could have gotten into Simon's tower would sew divisions among those trying to fight a war.. In both cases those divisions could be expanded out in the future BAT which was the real goal here.
SHe might have been a carrier, true, but I find it hard to believe that she lived for years in the summer court and not know about the White Council.
And didn't she mention that she distrusted wardens?
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SHe might have been a carrier, true, but I find it hard to believe that she lived for years in the summer court and not know about the White Council.
And didn't she mention that she distrusted wardens?
Agreed, she had to have known after she ran to the Summer Court. However, since none of the White Council knew about her, how would she go about getting trust enough to betray Simon? Even if Justin told her about his teacher, but then one has to ask, why didn't he mention Simon to Harry?
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Which is why Justin is suspected in the first place, but with his albi of being DED, Dresden was next in line. Elaine too would have known had Justin taught her.
I believe the Senior Council is mistaken on this point. Harry didn't even know about Simon or the Archangel site until they told Eb it had fallen. Yes, it's "conceivable" that DuMorne snuck some sort of Sekrit Pas5wirdz for Simon's wards into Harry&Elaine's training that they didn't even realize. But I doubt it strongly.
Elaine knows Harry's wards, and bypassed them easily because (as she explained to him) he didn't change anything from when they knew each other long before. I presume from her chiding him that she herself HAD altered her own wards, and that Harry wouldn't have so easy a time getting through hers.
But Simon? "His tower is a fortress" Simon? Hosts the "brute squad" Simon? Centuries of additional experience and learning and power Simon? Can any of us believe that a senior wizard -- who is evidently of a highly security-centric outlook -- wouldn't change his wards in a frequent and unpredictable manner? I don't find it even slightly credible that Simon's wards would still operate it the manner that Lazy-Harry or Clever-Elaine know how to get past.
I'm highly dubious that even DuMorne would have known how; it's just not good security to have that information out in the world for decades. A whamp could seduce it out of someone, a Ramp could Turn them, a mindmage like Capiorcorpus (or Molly!) could steal it unnoticed; etc etc etc. Someone could GET that information, and launch an assault before you could learn your "trusted contact" had been compromised.
The senior council is frankly stupid and grasping at straws to think that a couple of teenagers, with an extra generation of distance, could possibly have known the Sekrit Pas5wirdz for Simon's wards!
... I wonder if he was somehow influencing the Merlin even then to be more hasty and less considered in order to force an error. I think you are right - Peabody is no slob. I think he was being deliberate in that moment. Not magic of course, that would have been noticed, but something none the less.
I suspect Peabody was manipulating different members of the Senior Council in different ways at different times; including the Merlin.
I suspect that making the Merlin "hasty and unconsidered" would be hard; old minds tend to be less flexible, we know.
But how about making him more considered... more cautious? How about luring the Merlin to think another layer of plan-within-a-plan would be a Good Thing, that an elaborate and subtle plot will work better than decisive action? Arrogant superiority, "we're wizards, we will win because we're smarter and think better and deeper and longer-range!" Etc...
Peabody, as secretary, would have seen all the Senior Council at work; he knows who runs easily to anger, who likes to make plans, etc. He knows their hotbuttons and triggers, what gives them pause, where they rush to judgement and where their impulse is to make allowances. He knows whose opinions carry weight on which topics.
He will look to sway the council with the lightest touch he can; if he can tip a single cautious mind a bit more-cautious, thereby gaining a majority to decide to do nothing... or an angry mind to a majority decision to act prematurely... That'll be his preference. Getting a Senior Councilmember ALONE, "please sign these forms" to predispose them for an upcoming meeting or decision, that's even better!
Every action of Peabody's will be highly situation-dependent. "Insidious" is only the beginning.
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I think Simon is Cowl and still alive.
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You are entirely correct... and to be brutally frank -- by this same logic, Peabody could have had Simon himself lower the wards.
Simon sat on the Senior Council, and we're pretty sure all of the SC were especially influenced by Peabody.
Peabody could have had Simon "work on the wards" or could have deluded him that certain visitors were "safe," or... well, dozens of pretenses.
Remember -- Peabody was powerful enough to get the Captain of the Wardens to murder someone on the Senior Council.
After she was shoved into a younger body by Corpsetaker. The SC could only be tweeked not bent due to their age.
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An excellent point Ser Scot. Luccio was uniquely vulnerable due to her body swap.
g33k - But we can understand why they jumped to the conclusion. From their perspective, the already shady young wizard (child of Margaret Le Fay, student of Justin, who had already at least once broken a law of magic) who started a war with the Red Court that had just lead to a Senior Council wizard's death is highly linked to that particular death, not only more so than most because of being Justin's pupil but it makes him one of the few Wizard's still alive (to their knowledge) who actually could have let the wards down. We sympathize because we know Harry's thoughts - but they don't. I think the magical logic is pretty simple: someone has appeared to bypass Simon's wards, the only way to do so is by either knowing them intimately (not just by knowing wards but knowing those particular ones) or by some unknown aspect of the Art (as Morgan offers as an alternative). Wizards are highly arrogant and assume that the Red's couldn't possibly know some secret bypass magic that they themselves do not. But that is highly unlikely because we NEVER see them do such an act again during the war. I think more than a few wizards felt resentment at Harry dragging them into a dangerous and costly war with the Red Court (led primarily by Langtry, Lafortier, Mai and likely Cristos). I think it wasn't a big leap for them to pin it on Harry.
I do not for one second believe that Justin trained Harry and Elaine (knowingly or otherwise) in wards. I believe that either a) Justin is not fully dead and survived, or is at least active beyond the grave and continued to have Elaine enthralled and has been using Elaine as his enforcer and tool since or b) that Justin is both dead and not active beyond the grave, but Simon is Cowl and faked the whole assault on Archangel. I suppose Elaine could be Simon's new apprentice too, but I am not sure why she would run to Russia, in fact the only way they would meet is if Simon knew about her and Harry and decided to step in and finish her training.
I think Elaine is an excellent candidate too for the treachery because this is the first book we meet her, the first book we learn about wards (I think...), and the first book we learn about Simon and things get bigger in Dresden's world by an order of magnitude - and in her first scene she is alive (somehow) and has bypassed Harry's wards. That is significant, considering Harry has just learned that someone with intimate knowledge of Simon's wards supposedly did just the same thing just two scenes earlier. And she is working for the opposition (Summer) with vague reasons about why she is, how she survived, and seems to have had enough training to be able to veil so effectively that she is not at all worried by Warden's outside seeing her. Harry ignores a lot of Red Flags about her, but also considers that she might be involved in the murder (and is right in fact).
As to the mind-influencing, in point of fact I think that was exactly how Peabody was so effective. Langtry flaws were that he was obstinate, rigid in his beliefs, scornful, elitist and arrogant. Those traits maximized meant he would be quick to push his point-of-view down other's throats (where perhaps he might have been more subtle), looking for a quick victory. He would have found it much harder to be sympathetic to Dresden, open-minded, flexible in his thinking and humble. I quite agree that perhaps over considered and more cautious does fit the bill better with him, and also Mai.
And yes I believe it was lots of little nudges over time that made him so much more effective than attempting major policy shifts.
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Consider the behavior of the younglings in Scotland as Peabody fled. Any young members from Archangel could have been turned by Peabody, given sufficient time and planning, assuming that he had access to them.
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That is very true, ugly, influencing Simon to commit suicide.
Not suicide.
I doubt even Peabody could have forced Simon to drop his wards for an invasion force of Ramps.
Say rather, fatal error.
How about a delusion? Seeing McCoy or Luccio at the head of a large troop of Wardens, when he's been primed (by Peabody) to expect a big Secret Plan to attack the Ramps.
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Not suicide.
I doubt even Peabody could have forced Simon to drop his wards for an invasion force of Ramps.
Say rather, fatal error.
How about a delusion? Seeing McCoy or Luccio at the head of a large troop of Wardens, when he's been primed (by Peabody) to expect a big Secret Plan to attack the Ramps.
No. Too big a move. Remember, older minds cannot be bent only tweeked to do more of what they are already inclined to do. A full on delusion implant would be detected.
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@Mira
Good pickup! Personally, I don’t believe the Black Council wanted the Ramp war to start when it did - as pointed out, the Ramps needed a couple more decades of preparation & planning in order to beat the White Council. Since the fall of the White Council is one of the Outsiders’ (& Black Council’s) goals, I believe they too would’ve wanted to hold off on the war for a while.
Therefore my theory is that Peabody was ‘nudging’ the Senior Council members into being more suspicious of Harry (they are already afraid of what he may become), so that the Council would give him up to the Ramps & end the war before it starts.
Unfortunately some factions within the Red Court & Black Council believe they are ready for war & attack Archangel. I believe Simon is Cowl & that the Ortegas were not Nfected. I also believe that Cowl & Peabody are in different factions of the Black Council.
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I think Peabody was responsible for Simon's death, if he did indeed die. But I think the intent was to get a younger mind onto the SC, one that's more susceptible to control. Eb had a claim of seniority, though I don't know by how much offhand. Either that or the goal was to get a Senior Council member who would be another Merlin flunky (isolationist, passive, less likely to get into a brawl with the Reds). While he worked on that, I think Peabody saw an opportunity to try to bump off our favorite Starborn.
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I think Peabody was responsible for Simon's death, if he did indeed die. But I think the intent was to get a younger mind onto the SC, one that's more susceptible to control. Eb had a claim of seniority, though I don't know by how much offhand. Either that or the goal was to get a Senior Council member who would be another Merlin flunky (isolationist, passive, less likely to get into a brawl with the Reds). While he worked on that, I think Peabody saw an opportunity to try to bump off our favorite Starborn.
Eb did have a claim, it looks like a couple of wizards were more senior to him, but they weren't at the meeting so as the next on the list, Eb got the job.
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No. Too big a move. Remember, older minds cannot be bent only tweeked to do more of what they are already inclined to do. A full on delusion implant would be detected.
Ah, but Harry occassionally mentions Wizards are niquely scornful of illusion magic, because hey, how hard is it with the Sight?
So, Simon sees Luccio and a bunch of Wardens coming, as he expects. Is he going to use his Sight, or is he going to be arrogant enough to think it can't possibly be an illusion? I don't think Harry spends much time using his Sight on Eb or Susan when he is expecting them, though by the time of Skin Game basically everyone has gotten more paranoid.
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I had never really thought about it before, because Cowl has obviously always seemed like the ultimate master of the dark forces, but what if Cowl is Simon, but Simon only became Cowl because of the manipulations of Simon? If Simon spent years building Simon's disillusionment with the Council and willingness to do... whatever it is Cowl is trying to do, it might be that Simon was more key to the Black Council than just as an intelligence source. He may have been one of its primary recruiters.
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In my opinion Cowl is Cowl, he isn't Simon or Justin or anyone else but himself.
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Some thoughts:
1. I think Mira's theory is the most likely. Peabody mind controlled/influenced someone, probably a young someone, to lower the wards, and that's how the Red's were able to get in.
2. Elaine doing it is possible. Here is how I see that one. Elaine and Harry wouldn't just know how to open Simon's wards, but they would know the theories and techniques Simon would use to set up the wards. With this knowledge, they would be able to figure out how to open his wards. It would probably take some time and observation. Isn't there a statement that given enough time, just about any wizard would be able to figure out Harry's wards?
3. Another possibility is that Simon is Cowl. This has a part A and part B.
Part A is that the vamps got in because Simon was in the Circle with them, and they gained entrance that way and betrayed him, they gained knowledge of his wards that way, or they gained an agent who betrayed him that way. The agent could be Elaine.
Part B is that Simon orchestrated the whole thing for "reasons."
4. If Simon is Cowl, it is reasonable to believe that Justin was bad from the get go. Simon knew all about Justin's Elaine and Harry project. After Elaine disappeared, Simon finds Elaine and continues her dark training/subjugation/whatever. He then places her in the Summer Court as an agent.
Some other thoughts:
No, one has to look at the long term goals of whomever was backing Peabody. In Luccio's case the goal was to turn the Council against the Wardens, also to knock out the two most effective Wardens.
Murphy suggests that LaFortier had stumbled onto something that would lead to Peabody finding out, so he acted out of desperation to cover his tracks.
There is no indication that Peabody is merely a slob.
He was in fact fastidious.
After she was shoved into a younger body by Corpsetaker. The SC could only be tweeked not bent due to their age.
This is correct. It wasn't that Peabody was powerful enough to manipulate the powerful Luccio. It's that Luccio's young mind was supple enough to be warped without breaking.
In my opinion Cowl is Cowl, he isn't Simon or Justin or anyone else but himself.
He's definitely hiding his identity, so he is someone. Whether or not he's anyone we would know or care about is up for debate. I think he is either someone we know or someone we will know for Doylist reasons.
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Good pickup! Personally, I don’t believe the Black Council wanted the Ramp war to start when it did - as pointed out, the Ramps needed a couple more decades of preparation & planning in order to beat the White Council. Since the fall of the White Council is one of the Outsiders’ (& Black Council’s) goals, I believe they too would’ve wanted to hold off on the war for a while.
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Unfortunately some factions within the Red Court & Black Council believe they are ready for war & attack Archangel. I believe Simon is Cowl & that the Ortegas were not Nfected. I also believe that Cowl & Peabody are in different factions of the Black Council.
The Circle position seems to have been that they want evenly matched powers fighting each other to sow chaos and leave the survivor critically weakened. Waiting that few decades for the Ramps to win decisively like Ortega wanted would probably have been counterproductive for them. Besides, it would have overshot the big conjunction that all the powers in the know are planning towards (WOJ that it's "five minutes to midnight" and the players like Mab, Nic, Odin etc are trying to get ready for shit to go down, even though Harry isn't properly aware of it).