It's that time of year again again...

Jim Butcher is currently busy writing Skin Games, and has been letting out tantalizing hints and spoilers.  I would like to exceed the  relative successes of the of the Cold Days Predict-a-thon, and see if between us we can figure out what's in store for our favorite wizard PI.

As last time, I am going to try to structure the predictions by posing a bunch of questions and everyone is invited to submit answers.  This thread will then be locked some time before the book starts coming out so people can't change their answers.  Then, after Skin Games is finally out I will grade each of the submissions and the winner(s) will get bragging rights.  Last year, I made a bunch of custom forum icons for the winners.  You may find certain people still "wearing" them as badges of honor.  I'll probably do the same this time around.   



Notes:

a) There are 10 questions, to be graded based on correctness and specificity.  Feel free to be as crazy as you like; an answer of "Harry blows up a building" probably not be worth as much as "Harry blows up the Barad-dûr with Soulfire" if it turns out that he blew up Orthanc with Hellfire instead.

b) Grading will be done at my sole discretion, though I may appoint fellow graders -- especially if the number of submissions is large.  I will try to be fair, but I reserve the right to give extra credit to especially witty or creative answers.  The grading scheme last year was simple and fairly generous.  I would like to spice it up this year with "most amusing mis-prediction" or "made most people laugh".  It all depends on the quality of the answers we get.  --- This is all about us having fun, so if your answers provide amusement, this is something I will reward.

c) Please don't submit more than one set of answers.  Just edit your first submission if you want to change things.

d) The first two chapters are available to the public already -- using those is fair game.  There will probably be more such spoilers (interviews and the like) before the book comes out, so be warned -- I fully expected people to use everything at their disposal in making predictions.  (The sample chapters will be included in the paperback release of Cold Days, and for this reason, transcripts of the videos of Jim's readings available on the interwebs are discouraged) ^-Serack

e) While I don't expect them to contribute, if the Betas (or Jim) want to enter in some predictions, they are totally welcome...   

f) I'm essentially repeating myself, but please don't post more than once.  I will eventually have to go over all the responses, possibly multiple times, and I'd rather not have to be distracted by conversations.  If you have any comments about other theories, please open a new thread.

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1. We have been told that Nicodemus has a very specific target in mind, ostensibly kept in the Labyrinth of Daedalus.  What is Nic trying to get his hands on and why?  The blurb for SG had some info on this, and all answers that hit on what the blurb indicates as the target have been recorded before anyone could edit their answer to reflect its contents. ^-Serack

2. Nicodemus apparently called in a marker from Mab to get Harry on the team.  Does he have a specific plan for using Harry or did Mab twist his request?  Which of Harry's capabilities will he admit to needing, and (given that this is Nicodemus after all), which abilities is he scheming for Harry to use?

3. Jim has mentioned that the book will be "Ocean's Eleven".  Who else did Nicodemus recruit?  How will they interact with Harry?

4. Harry's general method of operation is to call on his friends for help.  In this book, Harry is (initially) allowed one extra backup member on the crew.  Who will it be?  Which of Harry's other allies will "interfere" before the plot is over?  9/10/13 an interview was published that answers the first half of this question.  (edit:  Sort of)  Those that guessed what he said in that interview (at least partially) have been logged by the curators, but this will probably go down as some kind of extra credit or something, so keep Predictin!  (edit:  And things might not be binary simple...)^-Serack

5. This is a Denarian book, so (unlike the last "end of the world" showdown), the Swords will almost certainly be present.  In fact, there have been various hints...  Which Sword wielders will appear in the next book and how will their interference/help affect the plot?

6. Mab is apparently against Nicodemus succeeding in this heist.  In the Cold Days, we found that Mab had complex reasons for wanting Harry to kill Maeve.  What are Mab's reasons in this book?  Is it simple thwarting or is there something deeper?

7. At the end of Cold Days, Harry needs to stay on the island to keep his growing headaches at bay.  The start of Skin Games implies that those headaches will need to be resolved by the end of the book.  Who or what is causing those headaches, and how will the whole thing get resolved by the end of the book?

8.  One of the key components of the "Ocean's Eleven" movie is that there is a final twist/reveal.  Given that we've got Nicodemus, Harry, Mab, and potentially Hades (and who knows who else) all trying to get the better of each other, if there's one thing you can count on it's some sort of last minute quintuple-cross.  What will be the nature of the twist and how will it all fall out?

9.  (Extra Credit) There are many WAG ("Wild A$$ Guess") theories on the boards, some crazier than others.  Write up to three WAG theories (or make up your own) you believe are correct that will be confirmed (or at least have evidence in favor of) in Skin Games.

10. (Extra Credit) This is that "free form" question where you can come up with anything else you think will be in this book.  Specific quotes Harry might say (will he actually quote Ocean's Eleven?  The movie will have come out already in Harry's timeline)? Tidbits about the White Council? The fate of Molly? Write down anything you want.  Note that whatever you write must be specifically mentioned or hinted at in Skin Games in order to be worth credit. 

In "It's My Birthday, Too" Harry uses gravity magic to kill two Blampires.  The description in the text is as follows:

In technical terms, I didn’t actually increase the gravity of the earth beneath it. I only concentrated it a little. In a circle fifty yards across, for just a fraction of a second, gravity vanished. The cars all surged up against their shock absorbers and settled again. The thin coat of snow leapt several inches off the parking lot and fell back. In that same fraction of a second, all of that gravity from all of that area concentrated itself into a circle, maybe eighteen inches across, directly at the vampire’s feet.  There was no explosion, no flash of light—and no scream. The vampire just went down, slammed to the earth as suddenly and violently as if I’d dropped an anvil on him.

There are a number of points I'd like to make:


1) Note that the fact that the text is talking about circles in two dimensions seems to imply that Harry didn't "turn off" gravity in general, but "merely" concentrated the gravity coming from the center of the Earth.  Otherwise, the effect should have more spherical -- all the concentrated gravity would have turned the center of the blampire into a nice, dense ball of matter.  Similarly in the second example, there would have been no reason for the second floor to fall down (rather than up/in/ whatever).

----> We have established that Harry's spell is pretty likely earth-centric.

2) The description of what would happen if Earth's gravity vanished for a split-second is pretty much spot on.  Consider that we're on a rotating planet, and the thing that keeps us "anchored" is gravity.  If gravity stopped for a given object, it would continue in a straight line (modulo secondary gravitational effects like the sun) rather than curve around the earth.  Since the Earth is rotating at about 1/3 of a mile an hour (at the equator), if you let something go in a straight line instead of curving around the earth, it would appear to float upward (probably wobbly -- a whole bunch of secondary effects come into play) for nearly a minute (as the earth dropped away), and then move "west" in increasing speed.  Since Harry describes the process of the spell to take a "fraction of a second", the description appears to be spot on.

3) Power -- So how much gravity did the poor blampire experience?  Well, it's kinda hard to say since you can't really concentrate gravity in that way -- certainly not in a 2D form.  Still, let's assume that it works in the same way a magnifying glass works when you use it to light a fire. 

In a magnifying glass, all the energy of the light rays passing through the glass get concentrated at one point.  The effective temperature at that point is essentially determined by how much energy is being concentrated.  The better the lens (i.e. better parabola), the smaller the area in which the energy is concentrated and hence the hotter it gets.  Ditto for size -- make the lens ten times bigger and you get ten times the energy (think Tavi at the bridge).

Fortunately, Harry tells us the measurements:  he concentrates the gravity from a circle 50 yards across to a circle 18 inches across -- a ratio of 100:1.  Thing is, the number that counts is the area of those circles, something that goes as the ratio squared.  Thus, we get an energy ratio of 10000:1. 

Now the "energy" of gravity is pretty much linear in scale (GM/R is the Newtonian function that comes to mind),  so this gives us the whopping number of 10000G, or localized gravity 10,000 times what we normally feel on planet earth.


4) Effect:

So what does this feel like?  A LOT.  Just for comparison, did you know that gravity on the surface of the sun is only 28G (which makes the whole ending of the Green Lantern movie really stupid)?  10,000G is what you get on the surface of a neutron star. 

From wikipedia:

The neutron star's compactness gives it a surface gravity of up to 7×1012 m/s² with typical values of a few ×1012 m/s² (that is more than 1011 or makes the gravity roughly 10,240 times that of Earth). One measure of such immense gravity is the fact that neutron stars have an escape velocity of around 100,000 km/s, about a third of the speed of light.

No wonder the vampire got flattened.  With that kind of gravitational force, it's interesting that we didn't see all kinds of weird-science side effects.  Light that happened to pass through those 18 inches during the spell would have been distorted up the wazoo with Doppler effects that would have done cool things to it.  Air particles would have been smashed down causing a temporary vacuum that would have sucked outside air in, causing an implosion effect.  Under that kind of pressure, the air inside would actually solidify on the bottom of the cylinder of concentrated gravity.  Heck, the speed in which those air molecules would collide would resemble the inside of a Super-collider.  I'm surprised Harry didn't discover the Higgs Boson on the spot.


5) Scaling up:

Finally, consider what would happen if Harry had made the "zero gravity" circle just 10 times larger.  Going by the radius squared law, we'd get a 100-fold increase in gravity at the center which would easily take us into the black-hole range. 

(Note that the surface gravity of a black hole is very hard to measure because of a lack of a "surface".  You can use the Schwarzschild radius, but then you get the weird effect where the larger the black-hole is, the weaker amount of surface gravity it has.  Nevertheless 1,000,000G is very comfortably a black hole).


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Not much more to say here, except that wizards are dang powerful.

I haven't quite thought out all the implications, but here goes:

When Harry meets with Lily under the truce, she implies that Nemesis corrupted Denton and his fellow FBI agents and that is what caused them to go power mad.  This bothers me, because someone still had to physically make/give them the hexunbelts, and also Denton seemed quite informed about magic stuff (e.g. the need to frame Macfinn to cover his trail).  Also, we see onscreen that when Harry uses one of the belts he gets an urge to kill.  The implication I always took from this is that if he actually used the belt to kill he would have been permanently corrupted...

So granted Lily isn't a scholarly source about NtC (Nemesis-type Corruption), but this does raise the notion that we've seen NtC onscreen before.  This leads me to my first WAG:

Basic WAG Theory 1:  The corruption you get from killing with magic is Outsider-based.

...and the more radical form:

Crazy WAG Theory 2: The corruption you get is not only Outsider-based, but is actually Nemesis itself.

There's not much proof I can offer for these, but consider:
- Only mortal magic corrupts when used for killing.
- Only mortal magic can summon Outsiders.

Here's another interesting point:
- Outsiders have apparently have some natural immunity to regular mortal magic.  If this is because they are the "source of magic", then this would be similar to the natural immunity Winter Fae have against cold, etc.

Crazy WAG Theory 3: The Laws of Magic are all anti-Outsider in origin

We know the Original Merlin (who apparently knew a LOT about the theory of magic) wrote down the Laws of Magic.  If Outsiders are the source of corruption, then all seven Laws might originally have been anti-Outsider laws.  Heck, even the law against time-travel might be Outsider related, because we see how they used time-magic to attack the prison on Demonreach.

Crazy WAG Theory 4: The Blackstaff can cure Nemesis corruption.

When Ebenezer uses the Blackstaff at CI, we see those black-tendrils curing him from the corruption.  Call me crazy, but those black tendrils remind me a lot of the description we get of Mordite and the Mistfiend at the end of Turn Coat (which Harry reminds us was an Outsider).  If the two types of corruption are similar (or identical), then it makes sense that the Blackstaff can cure Nemesis corruption.

For more possible evidence, consider also that the only "onscreen" cure to Nemesis so far is Lea -- cured by the Queen of Winter, who is also in charge of the defense against Outsiders.  If the Blackstaff really is Mother Winter's walking stick, then it certainly makes some sense that it would have anti-outsider related powers (similar to the "Unraveling"?).  The cure for "normal" magic corruption might just be a side effect...

Crazy WAG Theory 5: The Blackstaff itself was the true target at CI
Another implication is a renewed look at Changes.  I personally have never been happy with the notion that the Red Court all got together to throw a super-uber-massive spell just to kill Ebenezer.  Sure, he was a powerful wizard, but it still seemed like overkill.  If the Blackstaff is really an anti-Outsider weapon I could totally see the BC manipulating the Red Court into using overwhelming force against Ebenezer, knowing that in doing so they achieve the true target of getting the Blackstaff out of commission?

Crazy WAG Theory 6: Faith/Faerie magic works fine against Outsiders
While regular magic reportedly has a hard time hitting outsiders, we have seen that Michael didn't seem to have any difficultly in PG.  It is possible that this is simply because Michael gets unlimited powerups while "on duty", but note that the Wild Hunt didn't seem to have any particular problems with the Outsiders either.  In PG (or maybe BR?) Bob says that faith magic "is on a different wavelength" than regular magic is .  I propose that because faith magic comes from faith (or WG/soul/whatever), it is sufficiently different and can thus hurt Outsiders normally.

...And this brings me to my final WAG:

Super Duper Crazy WAG Theory 7:The reason a "starborn" can hurt Outsiders is because his normal magic incorporates an inherited amount of Faith magic in it.

One thing we have heard over and over again is that Harry's father is "a good man".  It has long been a theory of mine that one of the criteria for becoming a Starborn is to have one parent a wizard and one parent "good" (similar to the cleric+magic user thing from D&D). 

If faith magic allows you to kill Outsiders more easily, then this actually makes some sense as you can "infuse" your regular magic with "good stuff", and hurt Outsiders even more. 

- My guess is that having "good" genes is only one of the criteria (perhaps being born in the right time?), and even that only gives you the potential to be a Starborn.  You still need to follow up on your inherent "goodness" (whatever that means) before you can become a true Starborn.

- Note that if this is all really true, then Molly is also a potential Starborn, giving Winter a real advantage in any upcoming confrontation.

hehehehehe...

(It's been a while since the last such thread was deleted, so I thought I figured start it up again.)

The top selling books in the Dresdenverse

"Shadow Puppets"  by Nicodemus Archleone

"A Guide to Effective Oratory" by Nathan Hendricks

"Parenting Gifted Kids: Tips for Raising Happy And Successful Children" by Lord Raith

"Throwing Parties: How to Make an Event Memorable" by Bianca St. Clair

"The Book of Virtues" by Bob the skull

"How to win friends and influence people " by Marcone

"Dare to Forgive: The Power of Letting Go and Moving On" by Shagnasty

"Serving mankind" by Mavra

"A Practical Guide to Physical Therapy" by Mab

"Turning Dead Ends into Doorways: How to Grow through Whatever Life Throws Your Way" By Corpsetaker

"Saving It: The Evils Of Extramarital Sex" by Madeline Raith

"Nice Girls on Top: Compassionate and Highly Effective Leadership for Women" by Lara Raith

"What I Learned from God While Quilting" by Mother Winter

"How I Met Your Mother" by Lord Raith

Preface:

Small Favor is another of those books where something is going on in the background, and I've been trying to come up with a theory to explain it all.  I've come up with something, but I don't feel it is quite as solid as what I have for Proven Guilty, but I still think it is worth sharing.  As such, I am going to build up to the theory one block at a time, so that even if the full story is not perfect, at least the individual building blocks may encourages other to come up with their own insights.

Here goes (deep breath):

1) Is Mab being played, or is she the "player"?

We are told in Small Favor that the whole "Harry is predictable" explains how the Denarian's plan to capture the Archive isn't crazy.  However, there still is a critical point missing -- they would have had to predict that Mab would:
a) Choose to rescue Marcone, and
b) Choose Harry as Emissary in this task. 

Now, one could say that Harry would have investigated Marcone's abduction without Mab's intervention, but I'll deal with that chain of logic later on. 

Instead, consider the notion of trying to get Mab to do what you want.  Yes, she is predictable (i.e. no free will), but then so is that world-champion-chess-playing-computer-program.  Sure, if you study the algorithms it uses you can predict what it might do at any given position, but lets see you beat it at a game of chess....  With Mab it is much worse.  Not only do you need to be able to understand her thought-processes in an intimate manner, you also need access to every piece of information she uses to make those decisions - and she has *lots* of ways of gathering information.

Thus, if it's a choice between Mab being played, or Mab playing a game on someone else -- my money is on Mab.  If you limit the choice to "Denarians playing Mab" or "Mab playing the Denarians", I certainly know who I'm betting on.  The only way I could see Mab being played is if was someone like Titania or an Archangel playing on the other side.  I personally believe Titania is working hand in hand with Mab, but that is a subject for a different post (see here for my thoughts on that issue).

Two more points that can be read as supporting Mab:

a) Harry notes (end of chapter 7), that the first set of gruffs were sent by Titania hours before Marcone was attacked, and that this was in response to Mab declaring Harry to be her Emissary in this case. Note also that in this WoJ he says (emphasis mine):

The first are just the newer gruffs, those most recent from being Changelings.  They attacked Harry simply because Mab declared that she had chosen him as her emissary.

This essentially means that Mab made the first move.

b) At the Shedd, Harry realizes what is going on, flings Nicodemus into a wall and runs inside the descending uber-circle, but first has time to smash Namshiel with a soul-hand a couple of times.  Nic has shown that he has pretty good powers of recuperation, and yet he doesn't make it inside the Pentagram on time.  In fact, Tessa even comments about it.  You'd think Nic could have made it back in time... 

What I find further interesting is that Nic doesn't even try to run interference on the outside.  I mean, you've got wounded Gard and Hendricks (whom they need to capture for torture purposes -- to convince Marcone to take up a coin), and even two juicy Knights.  Sure, Nicodemus is a cautious fellow, but it didn't stop him from flying back to the train to kill attack Michael back in Death Masks. 

To me this suggests that the conversation with Harry in the Shedd really shocked Nic to the core.  All of a sudden, he realizes that something else is going on, and maybe he is being played somehow.  Consequently, he quietly hedges his bets and exists the scene. 

I realize this doesn't automatically mean that Mab is calling the shots (Nicodemus has also just realized that the Black Court has infiltrated his ranks), but...


On to the next point.

2) What advantage does Mab get by choosing Harry as Emissary?

Would Harry really have gone and tried to save Marcone if Mab hadn't chosen him to be Emissary (with the Archive being brought in, etc.)?  If the answer is "yes", then why did she choose him in the first place?  Having Harry as Emissary only adds on the apparent liability of causing Summer's goons to start chasing him, followed by the necessity of removing Fire from his arsenal of weapons.

Some thoughts:

a) Would Harry have been able to call in the Archive to arbitrate without the threat of Mab removing permission for the White Council to use the "ways"? 
b) Would Harry have even moved to save Marcone if not coerced by Mab?  The conversation he has with Thomas shows he might not have.
c) Even if Harry intended to investigate the building, note that he wasn't aware that Marcone was actually inside the building during the attack until Mab showed him in the ice-movie she made.  He might not have moved quickly enough, maybe even stopped at Mrs. Demeter's "Marcone is busy" routine.

Then there is also this quote from the book that need to be resolved:

I didn’t want to think too hard about that, and I didn’t want to openly agree with her, either. So instead I nodded at the patch of ground where the sculptures had been. “Who took Marcone?”
“I do not know. That is one reason I chose you, Emissary. You have a gift for finding what is lost.”
“If you want me to do this for you, I’m going to need to ask you some questions,” I said.
Mab glanced up, as if consulting the stars through the still-falling snow. “Time, time, time. Will there never be an end to it?” She shook her head. “Wizard child, the hour has nearly passed. I have duties upon which to attend-as do you. You should rise and leave this place immediately.”

The simple explanation here is that Mab really doesn't know who took Marcone, but I find it hard to believe that with all her information-gathering resources she couldn't figure it out something about the attackers.

Examples:

a) Usage of an uber-pentegram that Harry ultimately calculates would require an arch-angel to empower.
b) She could see inside the building the Marcone was hiding in, you'd think she'd be able to see the inside of the car he was taken in.
c) Smell of hellfire -- big giveaway.

Note also that when Harry wants to ask more questions, she brushes him off with the gruff threat (not that those gruff can pose any threat while Mab is standing right there).

Thing is, Mab cannot lie, so maybe she doesn't know exactly who took Marcone.  I'll bet she has a darn good guess though.

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To me, the takeaway is that if we assume that Mab is the one calling the shots, then somehow, getting the Archive involved must be part of the plan.

3) The Hob attack

The Hob attack is another weird event.  On the face of it, it seems like an attempt to abduct or kill the Archive, but in fact, I find it hard to believe that gang of Hobs would be a reasonable threat to her.  This is after all a being that is at least as powerful as one of the Faerie Ladies (according to the underestimation of the Warden files), and we see her hold off a horde of Denarians without much trouble.  Add to this Kincaid and Luccio, (and possibly also Harry and Michael - Mab must be keeping tabs on her Emissary), and using a bunch of Hobs for such an operation seems downright stupid -- which Mab is not.  At the very last resort, Ivy could retreat into the Nevernever...

Thus, I suggest that if Mab really wanted to kill the Archive, she could (and would) have easily assembled a way more powerful force (e.g. sending Santa to abduct the child Archive would have been a cool twist), one that would have a better chance at overpowering the Archive and her protectors..

So if the Hob attack was not meant to kill the Archive, what was its purpose?

One possible answer is that all this is simply "warning shot" for the Archive.  Sending a bunch of Hobs to attack her is essentially Mab's way of telling her "Someone is up to no good. Take extra precautions."  One could even say that those clothes thrown around the aquarium to obscure Ivy's smell is a precuation taken by Kincaid as a direct result of this obscure warning. 

4) The Shedd

I've already mentioned Nic's tardiness, but here's another interestingly shaped puzzle piece:

Uriel gives Harry access to Soulfire in this scene (presumably as a reward for resisting Lash), but we need to remember that the only reason he could intervene in this manner on the first place is because Hell had already intevened in the form of the uber-pentegram.  In fact, if you take events in strict linear time, the Soulfire-hand takes place before the second uber-pentegram actually materializes, and so this intervention has to "counterbalance" the first pentegram (the one used to capture Marcone).

Basically it boils down to this:  If Mab wants her future Knight to get access to soulfire, she needs to offer enough bait in front of the Denarians to entice them to break certain cosmic laws -- thus allowing Uriel to counterbalance them with the offer of Soulfire.  Good enough motive for Mab to set all this up?

Another interesting point about the Shedd is that it seems that Harry actually messed up here by charging into the Circle.  Consider that the uber-pentagram couldn't stay up that long; in our timeline it comes down maybe seconds after the Archive is abducted (remember also that Denarians express a worry onscreen that might not be able to find Ivy in time).  If:

a) Harry had never realized Nic was stalling him.
b) Harry had not gotten up the nerve to charge into the Circle.
c) Harry had the sense to stay hidden longer and not take a cheap shot at Tessa.
d) Ivy didn't care about Harry enough to save him at the expense of her freedom --

Kincaid and Ivy might have been able to run out the time on the Circle and Ivy would never have been abducted.  Once the Circle came down, it would have been a BAD DAY to be a Denarian...

Basically, Harry's good intentions -- i.e. his humanity messed up here.

5)The Island

There are a bunch of interesting things that happen on the Island - not the least of which is the encounter with "Eldest", but I'd like to focus on Harry's "Second Sight" starts coming on, the indication that the Island will be important to his future. 

Take a look at this WoJ:

How strong is Demonreach compared to Mab, Nicodemus, and all the other antagonists Harry faces?
That’s depending on where you stand. Like literally your GPS coordinates. If you’re in the right spot, don’t mess with Demonreach, and if you’re not, who cares. He’s one of those situations. If you want to go out to that island and play, you better bring your A game, is the way it works out.

...It almost sounds like Demonreach could win an arm-wrestling contest with MAB if she ever came to visit.

Given that Harry has just found out that Demonreach will be important to his future, I think it makes sense that Demonreach also got some indication that Harry was an important figure in its future at the same time...   

Demonreach as an ally (through her future Winter Knight) is certainly a plus for Mab.

EDIT: 

Here's another interesting point:  If the Denarian's original plan was only to abduct Marcone, they didn't really need to build that holding cell on the island.  Thus, if one of Mab's original goals was to introduce Harry to Demonreach, dangling Archive-shaped bait in front of the Denarians is the perfect way do so.  It is the only place in the area that would have the ley-line confluence to be able to build a cell to hold her for any long period of time.  Under Mab's original plan, Ivy would have escaped being captured the Shedd, and then she and Harry would have traveled to the island to free Marcone. 

"Mr. Dresden please meet Demonreach.  Demonreach please meet Dresden."




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Let's put all these points together into some coherent narrative:
------------------------------------------------------------>

1) Ever since the events of PG, Mab has been trying to gather allies, gain power against the BC, and get revenge on those who invaded her realm.

2) She knows that the Denarians have long been concocting a plan to abduct Marcone and give him a coin (maybe once he became a Freeholder?).  The notion of capturing Ivy is not in their plans yet. So she makes her move.

3) Mab chooses Harry as emissary - hours before the actual attack takes place.  Maybe just as Demeter tells them about the safe house.  Using a super-pentegram is still not in the picture.

4) Now that Harry is emissary, the Denarians realize that they have a chance of bagging Ivy as well.

5) They hastly change their plans.  The uber-pentegram is not strictly needed to capture someone like Marcone, but they decide to use it anyway - to test it out before using it on Ivy.  It's a last minute change to the plan, but Nic feels the risk is worth prize.

6) Thus, in the initial parley with Harry (when Tessa offers him mantis-smex), the Denarians only "fake attack" (good acting there, sacrificing Akariel...).  The real intention is to get Harry to call in mediation.  Note that Tessa is very careful to mention the Accords a number of times -- all the more to plant the idea in Harry's head to call in the Archive.

7) Mab tries to warn the Archive that the Denarians are after her by sacrificing some troops.  It's a simple "WARNING" sign from Mab.  Kincaid and Ivy take extra pecautions (such as laying clothes everywhere).  Unfortunatly, Kincaid neglects to pack claymore mines.

8 ) At the Shedd, Nic suddenly realizes that his plan is compromised.  From this point on, he begins hedging his bets (staying back).

9) The fact that the Denarians took the bait and broke the rules testing the pentegram on Marcone, means that Uriel gets to give Harry access to soulfire.  Mab dances a jig.

10) The attack on Ivy goes down, but instead of failing - with the Archive proceeding to pulverise the Denarians in retaliation (as Mab intended), Harry steps in and essentially messes everything up and Ivy gets taken.  Bad for Mab, but...

11) Harry goes to the island to rescue Ivy, and in the process Demonreach notices him -- more potential power for Mab's future Knight.

12) The Archive gets rescued after having been abused, holding an even stronger grudge against the Denarians.  Another ally for Mab in the fight against the Black Council.

13) Mab WINS.

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Final note: read this WoJ, see if it fits:

The thing is that Mab never really figures Dresden quite right.  She never gets it right when she tries to predict what he will do.  But Small Favor turned out really well for her.

Makes you think, doesn't it?

Forumites behold.  It is finally here!!

A main weakness of the first version of the Purity Test was that everyone was graded on a single axis that measured fanaticism about All Things Dresden (TM), no matter what shape or form.

Now however, with the invaluable help of my partner-in-crime Sanctaphrax we have a version of the test that will grade you on multiple scales (and rank you accordingly).

So once again, take the quiz...

http://knnn.x10.mx/purity2/purity.html

...and let us know what you got!

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Again, big thanks to Blaze, Myyrdn Eopia, El Diablo,  Mij, OpticChaos, devonapple, and Enjorous for beta-testing this quiz.  I can't thank them enough for the time they spent clicking through all those check-boxes again and again.
 
The Dresden Files is copyright Jim Butcher's.  This game/quiz is derivative, non-commercial.

As usual, any and all comments/suggestions/fixes are welcome.  Feel free to also take the code and modify it according to your own wishes.

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To start off the full score list, here are the ranks of the authors:

Sanctaphrax: 

Shiro Yoshimo - 44.9%

Supernatural Power:53%
Social Skills:54.6%
Armed Combat:81.9%
Unarmed Combat:12.9%

knnn
Winter Lady - 71.2%

Supernatural Power:84.9%
Social Skills:75.8%
Armed Combat:36.4%
Unarmed Combat:62.9%

Just noticed the "Male to Female" ratio (2.1:1) in the general statistics.  Anyone knows if this refers to number of members/posts/views/time logged in?