The next book is Peace Talks (#16). Mirror Mirror is the book after that (#17).

You are correct.  I should have said the next book where Murphy is likely to be able to participate would be Mirror Mirror.  We left Skin Game with her having months of recovery and I understand peace talks is just a few weeks at most after the end of Skin Game.    It is hard for her to take any role while bedridden. 

Well, first, I don't think Murphy's physical condition is nearly as bad as many keep saying. Dresden says that she can get back to 90% eventually. That just won't be by Peace Talks. I think by Mirror, Mirror or Body Slam she'll be in fine condition. She didn't get Michael Carpentered and won't require a cane just to move around. And 90% of Karrin Murphy is like 300% of most people.

But 90% is sufficient to take her out of the supernatural combat role that she has played in.    That 10% is the difference between dying and living in that game.   

Second, I've always pictured Murphy working as a supernatural consultant for vanilla law enforcement. I've said for years that she'd end up working with Tilly, basically taking on Dresden's role from Storm Front, but for the FBI. Lots of ex-cops go into consulting. Hell, she could end up apprenticing for Vince Graver (though I doubt it).

If Murphy is in charge of organizing and integrating different organizations, it should be integrating supernatural factions with mortal law enforcement. That's where her experience is, not with White Council politics.

Very true - and a real possibility.   But a lot of the secrets she knows are just that - secrets that she would be very uncomfortable sharing even though the government would really like to know them.  Not sure she will be comfortable taking on the role with divided loyalties. 

Third, Murphy will never become anything supernatural at this point. It would totally undermine her entire character if she has to deal with being mortal and get a get-out-of-mortality-free card.

Probably correct. 

This seems extraordinarily unlikely. Murphy isn't even a member of the Paranet or the White Council--what makes her more qualified for this than, say, Harry? Or Elaine, or Luccio, or Ramirez, or other wizard-level talents with ties to the Paranet and who can demonstrate the advantages of integrating the two organizations. If Murphy just came in and fixed everything after these guys spent years trying, it would feel extremely unrealistic.

I would argue that Murphy has already been coordinating Paranet actions across the country.  Based on events in Afterwards and Cold Days, it is pretty clear that Murphy is a big player in the Paranet - and that Chicago has been playing a major role in the national Paranet response to the Formor.   Sure she is not a wizard and has no magical talent.   But she does the job -- and it is not as if the White Council is going to respect the magical talents of anyone in the paranet.  They are all feeble talents in their eyes. 

The timeline of Demonreach implies that there were Wardens well before there was a white council.   Demonreach preceded the last ice age after all and the White council is only a few thousand years old. 

Some could argue that the formation of the white council itself was (at least in part) intended to provide better support for demonreach than a single (or small group) of wardens could do.  Much like the Fey replacing the Dragons as the defenders of the outer gates, things change over time even in the supernatural world.   Perhaps the world was getting to complicated for the old warden model.    No idea - but it makes for a nice theory. 

Is everybody certain that Margaret McCoy Dresden is actually dead.    We know Dresden's dad is dead because his soul came back for a visit in Dead Beat.   But do we have any specific trustworthy evidence that she is dead.  For example, did Lea specifically SAY that she was dead.  Not gone, not missed - but dead. 

Going by the comic book rule.  If you do not see the body, then you cannot assume that the person is really dead.   Even if you see the body, there is still a chance they are not really dead.   

This is not about "who" Cowl might be.  There have been acres of threads on that topic and everything worth saying has been said at least thirteen times.

This thread is about "how" Cowl will be unmasked.  My assumption is that Dresden will realize the true identity of Cowl at some point and mayhem will result.   He is a detective and it makes sense that he will use what he learned and his intuition to discover the real identity of Cowl. 

Intuition based on what you ask?   Answer - intuition based on the facts that Cowl himself shared when he encountered Harry

General factoids that can limit the pool of potential candidates from thousands to perhaps a few score -- plus some number of presumed dead white council wizards as well whose bodies were not clearly identified. 
*  Cowl was seen at three specific points of time - Bianca's party, events in Chicago during Dead Beat and (indirectly) during the final battle in Raith cave vs the super ghouls.   Clear alibi's during that time slot could rule out many people -- or a lack of an alibi could seal the accusation
*  Cowl was clearly identified as male during Dead Beat when he met Harry in front of the book store.
*  Cowl's height was identified during Dead Beat when he met Harry in front of the book store.
*  Cowl has a female apprentice.  Wizards take apprentices pretty seriously and I doubt they would use the word when the true relationship is something else (like ally or minion) at the time of Dead Beat's events.   

Aka - half the wizards are male.  Probably a lot less than half of those males wizards have a female apprentice, with the rest obviously having a male apprentice or no apprentice at all.  If your pool is obviously mature/powerful wizards of the White Council, there cannot be more than a few thousand of those.  Probably no more than 15% of that number are male with a female apprentice.  The three score wizards remaining could probably be reduced in half again with some simply screening around the dates.    You now have a viable pool of potential candidates for Cowl that is of sufficiently reasonable size as to work with. 



Other factoids are more specific to Cowl and Probably are something that is best used to winnow the near final list to the real Cowl.   
*  Cowl expressed a preference for specific classical book authors when he met Harry in front of the book store.
*  Cowl used specific words when casting his spells.  Harry uses his words as one of his spellcasting "aids" and I suspect Cowl does the same.  This could easily be the "trigger" that causes Dresden to put everything together.  Ditto with spellcasting gestures, how he vanished, etc. 
*  Cowl's magical signature could have been memorized by Harry - but as this was never mentioned I assume that Harry did not pick up the skill to read magical signatures until Small Favor -- or he remembered to do so too late to be useful.
*  Cowls words implied that he is not -- or is not currently - a member of the grey council.  He speaks of them as if he is not a member.  This also implies that he is not completely "in the know" as to why the Council takes special care with regards to Dresden. 
*  Cowl cannot be the Merlin or Gatekeeper - simply because those positions are so powerful that the Outsiders would have already won if either had been held by their stooge. 


Any other clue I missed? 

For me the big question is -- how did they imprison all these critters in the first place.  Once they captured a couple, the word would have gotten out.   

This implies there is some remote "caging" magic that can be used to capture some godling that is not so stupid as to step on the island. 

This will almost certainly repeat prior threads, but we are getting close to the publish date for peace talks.  Probably worth settling some key questions.

1) Whose "peace" is peace talks about.    Is this about ending the war with the Red Court?

On one level, this question seems stupid.  The Red court is destroyed.    But on another level, this question is very valid.   The war was NOT between the Red court and the White Council.   The war was between ALLIANCES.  On one side is the White council, a few informed human organizations, Summer and Winter.   On the other is the Red Court (destroyed), the Black Court, the White Court and probably some other unnamed lesser allies.

Under the accords, I suspect a formal peace treaty is required to end this state of war, at least from the perspective of Winter and Summer.  I suspect all the warring powers would prefer that the "state of war under the Accords" be ended.    The Accords apply completely different rules to nations "at war" than to nations "not at war" and those rules probably matter a lot to many of the participants.  Therefore it is of considerable value to formally end the war under the Accords. 




2) If the peace talks are about ending the war, what is the problem?

Again, in theory the peace talks should be easy.  The White court wants peace and would be perfectly happy to return to the status quo.   I mean that seriously - the White Court has done very well in the war and they are likely to retain most of their gains in power and territory by a peace treaty.  Previous statements are that the black court is not a major power any more and I doubt any other formal allies wield great power.   So the only real power opposing the White Council's alliance wants peace.      In theory - this should make peace talks a slam dunk. 

But it is pretty obvious that the Peace Talks will not be easy.  So why not.   The answer was pretty clearly stated in Ghost Story and in Aftermath:  Power Vacuum.  The reality is that the peace talks are not about ending the war, they are about dividing the spoils.   And just like in WW1 or WW2, there are a ton of nations that played some minor role or jumped in at the last second and now want their own bit of the spoils.  So these nations are participating in the peace talks to get their share of the goodies. 

Then there are other nations like the Formor which simple took advantage of the power vacuum to grab territory/people.   So any division of the spoils means the war powers have to enforce that decision on the Formor and other supernatural nations that grabbed some spoils even though they were not part of the war.    These nations either need their "grabs" to be tacitly approved (aka - lack of protest = acceptance) or they need to managed (aka - included in the talks and convinced to support the collective division of spoils) or they need to driven out (another war).   

I suspect the Formor are there as the White Council cannot ignore their activity  (aka - grabbing spoils), but at the same time the White Council does not want another war.   So trying to manage the Formor via Peace talks is the only option that might give the White Council what they want.     I doubt many in the Senior Council believe this happy outcome is likely, but it is perfectly clear that most "lay wizards" are desperately tired of the war and willing to accept nearly anything that looks vaguely like a decent peace.     

My theory is that Nic suspects that Mab is not currently strong enough to enforce the Accords.

Mab is a serious player in the supernatural community, but there are many serious players.  And there are many individuals (Hades, Mothers, other old hoary gods, archangels) that are significantly more powerful.    Nobody plays power games at the level Nic players without taking risks and making enemies.    Successful players are good at this type of gambling. 

Whatever action Mab does to punish a breaker of the accords must be somewhat comparable to the deed that was done.  So at best Nic risks a specific (and painful) disruption of his plans once or twice.  Breaking the accords does not make Mab a lifetime enemy after all.   They may even ally again in the future as they did in the past.