The Dresden Files > DF Spoilers

Comprehensive Proven Guilty WAG

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kbrizzle:
Upon a re-read of the book, and analyzing the events that follow, I think I may have figured out 95% of what was going on in Proven Guilty.

To begin, we need to understand the Black Council/ Nemesis' objectives in this book. As I see it, they had 4 plans which were enacted more or less simultaneously:

* Attack the White Council children's camp as well as a Venatori stronghold in Oregon through the Red Court. The objective was to draw in members of the Senior Council such as Ebenezer, Injun Joe & Martha Liberty, and then ambush them with Outsiders.
* Ebenezer points out to Harry early in the book that if it weren't for allies like the Venatori, the White Council would have fallen a while ago. By attacking the stronghold, the Black Council would cripple one of the White Council's biggest allies
* By killing members of the Senior Council, the Black Council would remove serious obstacles as well as create new openings on the Senior Council that they can fill with their allies. This ploy is the premise of Turn Coat later on.
* Attack Arctis Tor, depose Mab & replace her with a Nfected Maeve.
* My theory is that Maeve convinced Mab that Lily, like Aurora, had been Nfected. This caused Mab to amass her spare troops at the border with Summer instead of retaliating against the RCV for trespassing the previous year
* This leaves Mab relatively undefended at Arctis Tor for the time being, allowing the Black Council to summon their allies & successfully breach the gates at Arctis Tor. Mab however is able to escape by hiding as a statue in her prison/garden
* Set up SplatterCon!!! to keep Harry & Michael busy in Chicago
* Madrigal Raith confirms that the conference was set up at least a year ago when he was invited to attend (and be the scapegoat)
* I believe the Black Council used Mavra, disguised as Sandra Marling to set up the Con. Mavra does this to get revenge on both Harry & Michael (through Molly). This is also supposed to keep them busy as the Black Council's other plans unfold
* Nfect Molly
* I posited earlier that Maeve convinces Mab that Lily is Nfected - as a result Mab decides to replace Lily with Molly, who she knows is not Nfected. Note: At the end of Cold Days, Mab mentions to Harry that she originally considered Molly to be a better candidate for Summer
* As a result, the Black Council decides to Nfect Molly, turning her a sleeper agent. To help prepare Molly get Nfected, the Black Council uses its' agent Sandra Marling to begin pushing Molly towards dark magic. The resulting taint on her soul would allow Nfection to take place.
* After the attack on Arctis Tor, despite successfully breaching the security, the Black Council is unable to locate Mab. Realizing the extent of the Black Council's plan, Mab is able to get Eldest Fetch to abduct Molly - taking her away from the clutches of the Black Council, and bringing in Harry to save the day.
* The Black Council is happy to send Lily to aid Harry in "rescuing" Molly because they do not want Mab to have her before the Nfection. By using Lily's butterfly in Arctis Tor, Maeve is able to further the fiction that Lily is Nfected, allowing Mab to think that Lily planned the attack. Mab sees through this & realizes that Maeve is the one who is actually Nfected
So in essence, 2 things spoil Nemesis' plans - Michael goes to Oregon instead of staying in Chicago & helping Molly; and Mab is able to successfully hide during the attack on Arctis Tor - the unsuccessful attempt unmasks Maeve. This book is the beginning of the end of the war against the Red Court - it is the first time that the Black Council are unable to achieve any of their objectives.

I also believe that it is Future Harry who creates the accident with the Beetle in the beginning of the book - this forces Harry to rely on Murphy & Thomas, both of those help he needs to get through the case. He also fixes Little Chicago as he alone knows Harry's wards at this time.

morriswalters:
I'm still pondering the rest.  On the car wreck though.  Consider that he is attacked three times by non magic attacks. 

The car wreck.
The car bomb in Murphy's car.
The bag of explosives in Cold days.

The last by Ace.  My favorite, and I believe, the simplest explanation, is that all three attacks are by Ace.  Each one an iteration.
 
The first to realize Harry can be attacked successfully by a non Wizard. 
The second an overly complex attack misjudging the sensitivity of electronics around Harry. Implying a lack of knowledge of Wizards and technology.
The last final iteration, aerial bombing by Ace's minions. 

We can infer that Ace must have surveilled Harry for a long enough span to see him using  the General and to copy the tactic.

Bad Alias:
That's pretty good. It would answer my question about why Mab didn't declare war on the Reds. Another explanation could be that Mab was already planning the events of Changes, so she didn't need to.

Snark Knight:

--- Quote from: morriswalters on November 17, 2018, 10:07:48 AM ---I'm still pondering the rest.  On the car wreck though.  Consider that he is attacked three times by non magic attacks. 

The car wreck.
The car bomb in Murphy's car.
The bag of explosives in Cold days.

The last by Ace.  My favorite, and I believe, the simplest explanation, is that all three attacks are by Ace.  Each one an iteration.

--- End quote ---

I hope someone asks in a Q&A at some point for a confirmation on which mundane hit attempts were by Ace. It might get an answer, since he's dead now and no longer spoilery.

Future Harry and federal agents testing out his defenses are candidates for the hit and run. I kind of think Ace wouldn't have backed off when Harry was disoriented due to concussion, in that one.

morriswalters:
Ok, I've given it some thought.
--- Quote ---Attack Arctis Tor, depose Mab & replace her with a Nfected Maeve.
--- End quote ---
Either JB is playing games or the only time Mab could be killed is on Halloween or at the Stone Table.  To depose her you have to kill her, since it would have required the Mantle to make Maeve the Winter Queen. 

JB keeps the timing vague.  My current read is that it happens during the events of Dead Beat.  The point was to keep Council out of play during the Darkhallow.  By giving the Reds a chance to attack the Council through the ways without fear of retaliation from Winter.  We know that Mab feels able to answer for Lea when Harry summons her.  So after that.  The Darkhallow was the point, everything else was gravy.  Mab knew Hellfire was thrown, but she may not have known who was with the Denarian.  So the smart play is to position her pawns where she can use them and give the Reds a pass for the moment.  That may sound more certain then it is.  It's the way I write. Add a great big IMHO.
--- Quote ---Ace wouldn't have backed off when Harry was disoriented due to concussion, in that one.
--- End quote ---
Ace showed that he wasn't the brightest crayon in the box.  And JB is in stealth mode since he has nothing to promote.

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