The Dresden Files > DF Spoilers
Any news on Peace Talks
KurtinStGeorge:
--- Quote from: AndiSue on February 26, 2019, 03:57:40 PM ---The updates have not been every chapter.
December 6 - Chapter 36
December 17 - Chapter 38
December 27 - Chapter 39
January 17 - Chapter 41
January 31 - Chapter 43
February 21 - Chapter 45
--- End quote ---
--- Quote from: morriswalters on March 02, 2019, 02:58:03 PM ---To which you can add chapter 46 as of 3/1 2019
--- End quote ---
So let's do some math.
December 6 - Chapter 36
December 17 - Chapter 38
11 Days - 2 chapters
December 17 - Chapter 38
December 27 - Chapter 39
10 days - 1 chapter However, I will subtract 1 day for Christmas
December 27 - Chapter 39
January 17 - Chapter 41
21 days - 2 chapters Again, I will subtract 1 day for New Year's Day
January 17 - Chapter 41
January 31 - Chapter 43
11 days - 2 chapters
January 31 - Chapter 43
February 21 - Chapter 45
21 days - 2 chapters
February 21 - Chapter 45
March 1 - Chapter 46
8 days - 1 chapter
So 11+10+21+11+21+8-2 = 80 Days estimated writing time (It doesn't matter if Jim's writing schedule is 5,6 or 7 days a week. Assuming his schedule is steady; which I know is a huge assumption in late December, the total number of days are what matter.)
80/10 chapters = 8 days per chapter Of course, the assumption here is each chapter is the same or very close to the same in word count.
So; in theory, it's just a question of how many chapters Jim has left to complete. In reality, I don't know if the last chapter or three; the ones which contain the final boss battle(s), might take a day or two longer each, but I'll ignore that possibility for now. If Peace Talks is 52 chapters long (I believe someone counted and said the last four of five books have been about 52 chapters each.), it should take 48 more days. (6 chapters x 8 days per chapter) If Peace Talks is 55 chapters long (I think Cold Days was 55 chapters long. I know it had the highest word count.), then it will take 72 more days. (9 chapters x 8 days per chapter.)
Final assumption. When we are given a chapter number, that means Jim has finished that chapter, not that he has started working on that chapter. If the later is the case, I have to add 8 more days to my estimates, which I really don't want to do.
March 1 + 48 days = April 18
March 1 + 72 days = May 12
So now that I've done some simple math and made a rough estimate when we can expect Peace Talks to be finished, it will be interesting to see how close I get Jim gets to meeting my estimates. :) If Peace Talks is finished within this time frame, I expect we will get it in time for Christmas.
Maz:
KSG's post made me smile. Thank you.
segaily:
--- Quote from: KurtinStGeorge on March 03, 2019, 09:33:52 AM ---March 1 + 48 days = April 18
March 1 + 72 days = May 12
So now that I've done some simple math and made a rough estimate when we can expect Peace Talks to be finished, it will be interesting to see how close I get Jim gets to meeting my estimates. :) If Peace Talks is finished within this time frame, I expect we will get it in time for Christmas.
--- End quote ---
I have been meaning to do this myself. Thanks. If nothing else it is fun to look at. If only the update posts included the total planned number of chapters we could really go crazy with predicting publication dates. I am currently going with hitting shelves just before Halloween :) I like to be optimistic.
morriswalters:
Chapter 47 3/4/2019
Just Al:
Just as an FYI, for everyone here, plus Jim.
Here is an essay that Charles Stross wrote on his own problems with writing very long book series
https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2019/03/lessons-learned-writing-really.html
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