The Dresden Files > DF Spoilers
Unsolved Mystery Book9 Cowl again
Arjan:
--- Quote from: the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh on December 04, 2017, 08:08:43 PM ---Nah, I think the outsiders will be the first one, the Fallen the second smaller one, and the third one will be Scouring of the Shire-scale White Court stuff.
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Possible I suppose. Not written yet.
--- Quote ---Harry seems an easy sell on believing this is the case with the Red Court between GP and Changes, though.
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For the white council, not for the red court. How can it be when the council does not even know were they came from?
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Harry not seeing them does not mean they weren't involved.
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They were probably involved but I do not think they were personally involved most of the time and Harry was involved in the war. He was relatively close to Lucio and collected trophy's with Ramirez. It is highly suspicious that he knew so little about the red courts command structure. It suggests the white council knew very little which was confirmed when Lucio told Harry they were based "Somewhere in Latin America"
--- Quote ---Do you think that if a minor Red Court functionary tried starting a war with the White Council without approval from the higher levels, the Red Court would hesitate to disown and sacrifice them ?
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Bianca did in a sense. It depends what suited them but that was not the point. For the lower levels the war offers chances for pyramid climbing so they can form support for a war. Support that only needs a leader. There will be pressure for war from the bottom up.
--- Quote ---Your notion of Winter as more significant than anyone else in keeping the Outsiders out is not something I agree with; iirc one of the Mothers says that is only at this point in time and has not always been the case, which strongly suggests they are not the only entities capable of fulfilling that role.
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But now it is winter and if the norse gods had that position before they did not really stop, they support winter. Mab took that position because she is the strongest which is also the reaso why she owns the accords. She is set up by Jim as the one to beat.
--- Quote ---How big a push do you think pushing them into a war they can't possibly win is ?
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That was a big success for the outsiders. But if they can not win that war there is no sense in weakening them, only in encouraging them by strengthening them. Keep them at war as long as possible.
--- Quote ---Have you some reason of ruling out us finding out that they have actually been seriously touched by those schemes?
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Mab was somewhat touched but not fundamentally. I do not think the rest is. That probably will happen later though.
--- Quote ---Think of how much Harry knows about now that was ongoing at the time of SF but that he had no idea about then. Are we really in a position to rule out there being as much or more currently going on that he is still blithely unaware of ? This is a person who has been deliberately avoiding the White Council as much as he possibly can, so is set up to be less informed about the supernatural world than most of his peers. (Which makes sense at a meta-level for JB to pace us learning about stuff along with Harry.)
When you say "again" there, what are you referring to as him having cheated before ?
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Harry was warned by both Thomas and Shiro that Ortega was an act meant to destabalize him. You can stop seeking meaning in his words except for the designed impact on Harry.
It worked to well for that to be anything else.
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I see no reason to think Ortega lies. I think that when he is put on the hot seat, he is willing to go a very long way to stop this pointless war. Including cheating in a duel, which he knows full well will bring the full weight of the Accords down on him and probably get him killed. The guy is willing to sacrifice his own life that way in order to kill Harry and stop the war. That does not look like a liar to me, it looks like someone dedicated and self-sacrificing for the interests of his people.
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He got you as well as he nearly got Harry. I do not think he thought he could lose.
--- Quote ---I'll say. he has soulfire (which Nicodemus very nicely set up by exposing him to hellfire, which is probably why the guy thinks he has a chance of ending up a saint),
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Do you want to take his words seriously as well?
--- Quote ---he has the Winter mantle, he is a well-trained wizard, he's been exposed to non-negative uses of necromancy. Harry was not the only potential starborn at the beginning, but he is a major useful piece now.
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He gets more and more usefull but not enough to sacrifice a whole supernatural group if they are not a liability for other reasons.
--- Quote ---You give the Reds far more importance here than I do.
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Most prominent outsider tool is not that important. They are probably just the first, others are being influenced right now. I think they were supposed to join up with the Fomor for an even bigger war, that was prevented in Changes.
the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh:
--- Quote from: wardenferry419 on December 04, 2017, 09:51:03 PM ---Well, one important detail about the RCV is that they were possibly the largest vamp court and maybe had the easiest and fastest way of converting mortals into supernatural creatures.
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We don't know this at all, and we have circumstantial evidence pointing very much in the opposite direction.
For one thing, we know from WoJ that the White Council first became aware of the Red Court about the time Europeans were exploring the Americas. Which means that if the Reds were building their forces towards being able to take on the White Council, they were very slow about doing so. Certainly slower than the Council could; Luccio mentions in Changes that by that point the Council had twice the strength in the field they had before the losses of DB, and that took them five years.
For another, possibly the most important datapoint about supernatural predators in the DV is one that Harry is by definition incapable of realising. The bit early on in DB where Harry explains to Butters about the numbers of human beings who go missing. Where he is quoting real-world numbers exactly.
The DV has organised crime. The DV has abusive families and runaway children. We've seen these in the text. We have no reason to believe that these and other reasons why people disappear are any different as facts of the DV than they are in RL.
Which means that the actual impact of supernatural predation on humans in the DV is statistically negligible. There's hardly any of it.
We've seen one human partially transformed, and that took at least one Red Court noble and possibly a whole houseful of other Red Court to achieve.
The other major piece of evidence here, fwiw, is that Harry entirely understands the dangers of exponential growth among enemies, and explains it quite cogently to Murphy earlyish in BR when talking about the Black Court. But neither there nor anywhere else does anyone apply or suggest applying that model to the Red Court. To my mind, that strongly suggests that it does not in fact apply.
the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh:
--- Quote from: Arjan on December 04, 2017, 10:01:51 PM --- It suggests the white council knew very little which was confirmed when Lucio told Harry they were based "Somewhere in Latin America"
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And you believe that too ? Chichen Itza is a real place, and not an obscure one. It's a significant historic site and a huge tourist destination. It's about as plausible that the Council don't know its significance to the Red Court as it would be if they were hanging out at Stonehenge.
As for the rest of the post, at this point I feel like you and I are just arguing assertions back and forth at one another, and your assessment of when characters are reliable sources and when not does not make over much sense to me, so I see no particular benefit to continuing this debate; would certainly be on for talking more as to how that should be judged generally, but that probably warrants a different thread.
wardenferry419:
I was thinking about one of the battle descriptions where 20 vamps were getting dropped per warden or wizard lost and the WC still was over-run. At Chicken Pizza, I thought there were thousands more. While I agree with you the WC grow rapidly in numbers; how does average power per person equate with the power per person of those lost? But, you are right that we didn't have an on-screen conversion. I might be working on some of the more traditional ideas of the process. One or two nips and sips. WCV seems to be limited by lack of offspring produced and BCV seem to have self-imposed and literature-induced limitations on their numbers.
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